Midseason Updates to Prospect Rankings

[CubinNY]

Has Rojas passed Hernandez as a prospect?

 

Edited June 29, 2023 by CubinNY

[CaliforniaRaisin]

On 6/25/2023 at 7:27 PM, CaliforniaRaisin said:

PCA 10, Horton 50, Brown 77, Alcántara fell from 68 to out.

Everyone will jump up one spot next week when Eury Pérez graduates. 

Thanks to some graduations, PCA is 9, Horton 48 and Brown 75.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

In his draft preview, Kiley had the Cubs as the 6th best farm system in baseball: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/37939240/2023-mlb-draft-guide-best-fits-biggest-need-all-30-teams

[CaliforniaRaisin]

16. PCA
31. Horton
95. Shaw

Ben Brown dropped out.

Jackson Holliday is the only 2022 draftee ranked higher than Horton (admittedly Neto graduated).

Also everyone should move up 2 spots - Bobby Miller graduated by service time (BA doesn’t track service time) and Elly de la Cruz will graduate after 5 more at bats.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

8. PCA
26. Horton
78. Alcántara
101. Brown

[Tryptamine]

My initial reaction to Horton was so incredibly wrong. Kudos to the front office on that.

[Hrubes20]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

My initial reaction to Horton was so incredibly wrong. Kudos to the front office on that.

Same. I was more dismayed that they passed on Brooks Lee rather than being down on Horton, but I also need to eat a bunch of crow early on.

[Tryptamine]

BA not having Alcantara is going to look pretty foolish in about 2 months.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

2 hours ago, Hrubes20 said:

Same. I was more dismayed that they passed on Brooks Lee rather than being down on Horton, but I also need to eat a bunch of crow early on.

There was a rumor that one top 10 team had completely taken Lee off their board due to his medicals. Wonder if it was the Cubs.

We know the org (even if it wasn't Kantrovitz then, some of the same scouts and crosscheckers were there in 2022) loved him in 2019 and were desperately trying to get a deal with him in the 2nd round with the savings from the Ryan Jensen first round pick.

[Hrubes20]

40 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

There was a rumor that one top 10 team had completely taken Lee off their board due to his medicals. Wonder if it was the Cubs.

We know the org (even if it wasn't Kantrovitz then, some of the same scouts and crosscheckers were there in 2022) loved him in 2019 and were desperately trying to get a deal with him in the 2nd round with the savings from the Ryan Jensen first round pick.

It’s all good. Cubs ended up with Strumpf in the 2nd and went way overslot on Hearn later on. Both guys well outside the top 20 in the system after 4 years. Pretty awesome. Sigh.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

With Elly de la Cruz and Oscar Colás graduating, Kevin Alcántara is back in the Pipeline Top 100:

7. PCA
46. Horton
72. Brown
100. Alcántara

[Rex Buckingham]

Keith Law's list has a Cubs OF at 14.

What is surprising about that is the fact that it is Kevin Alcantara at 14. PCA is 18, Horton 53, and Shaw 55. Law also named 19 people as honorable mention, including James Triantos. So by his reckoning, we've got 5 top-79 prospects.

Edited July 21, 2023 by Rex Buckingham

[JBears79]

2 hours ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Keith Law's list has a Cubs OF at 14.

What is surprising about that is the fact that it is Kevin Alcantara at 14. PCA is 18, Horton 53, and Shaw 55. Law also named 19 people as honorable mention, including James Triantos. So by his reckoning, we've got 5 top-79 prospects.

Law seems to be the only guy that didnt completely forget that Alcantara was still super young for his level and hitting a in cold weather environment for the 1st time ever earlier in the year. I still have PCA ahead of him but I can argue with Law here.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

Was a little curious why since they didn't add a big FV guy, Shaw was the best and he only graded at a 45.  Turns out Fangraphs ranked 108 players as 40 FV or better, and the Cubs got 5 of them(Shaw, Wiggins, Sanders, Rivera, Carico)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

On 7/3/2023 at 9:34 AM, CaliforniaRaisin said:

In his draft preview, Kiley had the Cubs as the 6th best farm system in baseball: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/37939240/2023-mlb-draft-guide-best-fits-biggest-need-all-30-teams

Cubs fall to 7 after trading away Made and Herz. Sounds like Kiley has the Nats 5, Yankees 6, Cubs 7 and Rays 8 now.

[Tim]

I'm missing what others see in the Yankees system. I was looking for possible trade candidates when Bellinger to the Yanks was a topic. I didn't see a whole lot that excited me there.

[Jason Ross]

7 hours ago, Tim said:

I'm missing what others see in the Yankees system. I was looking for possible trade candidates when Bellinger to the Yanks was a topic. I didn't see a whole lot that excited me there.

I think it's two fold; I do think there's some interesting prospects around, guys with upside.  You can find people as low as the 15-20 range on BA's top-20 that I think are interesting in ways.  Trey Sweeney at #16, is having a nice season in AA (119 wRC+, K% under 20%).  Is he a SS?  Maybe not.  Is he a star?  Probably not.  Is there a path to being a starting 3b, perhaps?  Yeah, I think.  There are a few names I see there that could be interesting.  I can't say I'm overly familiar with their system, so I'm just numbers scouting, but they have interesting names there.  

 

Secondly, I think the Yankees have a reputation for solid development as of late, as an organization in that teams trust they're doing a solid job developmentally.  They've had some successful prospects come through their ranks in recent years (not all of them hit) and players generally seem to be making strides level over level.  I think that helps fuel perception as well.  There are teams who do a good job with their talent and then there are teams who don't (ex. it's pretty widely believed the Nationals, for example, have no idea how to properly develop the overly toolsy players they so covet, for example.  Detroit, as well, seems to have a pretty high rate of prospect fail).  It's better to buy prospects who are developing correctly, instead of having to go back through and fix nonsense.  

Edited August 1, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Quote

The Cubs system has improved more than any other in the last two years. Their organizational talent came in 22nd in our preseason 2021 rankings and should push for the top five when we update those in the very near future. They finally have a wave of pitching heading to Wrigley Field and also have a number of talented position players.

Chicago has four prospects on our current Top 100: outfielders Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kevin Alcantara, right-handers Cade Horton and Ben Brown. It has even more knocking on the door, with catcher Moises Ballesteros, outfielder Owen Caissie, middle infielders Matt Shaw and James Triantos and left-hander Jackson Ferris all coming up in the discussion for next week's Top 100. Jefferson Rojas, an 18-year-old shortstop holding his own in Single-A, has a high ceiling and could push for the Top 100 in the future.

 

[Jason Ross]

Really impressive that the Cubs have that many guys who could pop up on the top-100.  Even more impressive to remember this as well:

1.  6 of those players (Horton, Shaw, Triantos, Ferris, Rojas, Ballesteros) were drafted or signed directly by the Cubs in IFA.  Only one of those players (Horton) was a top-10 draft pick, and he was considered by many to be a "reach" and underslotted.

2. PCA and Caissie while drafted by other organizations only played a combined 6 games with other teams (all PCA, Caissie never recorded a single professional PA in SD).  Neither were top-10 picks and Caissie wasn't even a 1st round pick.

3. Kevin Alcantara never played above the Complex league with the Yankees

4. Ben Brown was the only player who had logged a single game above A ball, and even he was not considered to be an industry-standard top-pitching prospect with Philadelphia

 

All of this goes to highlight the fantastic job the Cubs have done scouting and developing prospects.  

[JD94]

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Really impressive that the Cubs have that many guys who could pop up on the top-100.  Even more impressive to remember this as well:

1.  6 of those players (Horton, Shaw, Triantos, Ferris, Rojas, Ballesteros) were drafted or signed directly by the Cubs in IFA.  Only one of those players (Horton) was a top-10 draft pick, and he was considered by many to be a "reach" and underslotted.

2. PCA and Caissie while drafted by other organizations only played a combined 6 games with other teams (all PCA, Caissie never recorded a single professional PA in SD).  Neither were top-10 picks and Caissie wasn't even a 1st round pick.

3. Kevin Alcantara never played above the Complex league with the Yankees

4. Ben Brown was the only player who had logged a single game above A ball, and even he was not considered to be an industry-standard top-pitching prospect with Philadelphia

 

All of this goes to highlight the fantastic job the Cubs have done scouting and developing prospects.  

It’s why I trusted Jed had we sold at the deadline. He’s proven to nail this part of his job. Obviously translating to the majors is the next step and next year will be the beginning of that phase where we start judging based on making it to the majors and your production with some of our top guys beating on the door. I’m obviously not saying PCA has to come in and put up a 4 fWAR next year or Jed lost that trade. My point is he’s done incredible in trades, and drafting, and developing (not Jed specifically, but his coaches and development team) to this point. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA re-did their top 30 and I must reiterate I miss the days Callis or even Cooper did the Cubs lists: Jared Young is 28 and Darius Hill 29, lol.

1. PCA
2. Horton
3. Shaw
4. Amaya
5. Mervis
6. Brown
7. Ferris 
8. Wicks
9. Caissie
10. Triantos
11. Alcántara
12. Ballesteros
13. Palencia
14, Canario
15. Wiggins
16. Aliendo
17. Kilian
18. Vázquez 
19. L. Little
20. Perlaza
21. Murray
22. Arias
23. Davis
24. K. Franklin 
25. Rojas
26. McGeary
27. Rivera
28. Young
29. Hill
30. Hodge

[sneakypower]

flip 5 & 9 and the top 12 is pretty spot-on at least (imo)

[Tryptamine]

I just don't get being this down on Alcantara. Even if we ignore that he clearly adjusted to A+ after a horrific start, his overall numbers put him at a 118 wRC+, in a season where he turned 21 less than a month ago while playing a premium defensive position.