Christopher Morel & Average Exit Velocity

[Tim]

First off, this is a really interesting article about rookie performance at Fangraphs. The upshot of it is that average exit velocity (EV) is an even better predictor of future performance (measured as wRC+) than the actual rookie performance. 65% of players with an exit velocity of 89 end up with a wRC+ of 100 or better. That jumps to 77% at an EV of 90.

 

Morel was at 89.6.

 

His weakness was obviously plate discipline, but that is something that players can improve with experience. The data in the article shows that very few players can improve their average EV at all, let alone significantly. Morel already being significantly above average in EV means that he's got a good chance of being an above average offensive player throughout his career. Considering all the other ways he can contribute to the team, the Cubs should find a way to keep him on the field as much as possible.

 

Plus he's one of the most fun players in baseball.

[Cubswin11]

I suspected Morel a glove and slug type player coming up but it seems the glove is more master of none rn. Honestly more upset aboot that than the Ks (though there’s an 18% SwStr and near 33% CSW too)…Well below lg as far as producing GBs (too many) and FBs (too few). As Cubs go he seems like a guy they’d be selling high on at this stage of his career?

 

To cast a wider net on players in the org:

 

- Probably further illustrates why I banged the drum for Swanson despite the career 94 wRC+

- You might see why I’m still very high on Ed Howard (89) and the low guy on Crow-Armstrong (87) these days

Ed Howard should be considered dead until proven otherwise with that injury.

 

But yeah, I’m not super high on Morel but think there’s a defense and dongs profile there and he should be buried enough on the roster he’s not an everyday guy, unless he breaks out. Hopefully he cleans some things up (at least marginally) and provide some sort of split/platoon advantage.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I would be very careful about making that connection with minor leaguers(read: I wouldn't do that), given that the correlation is not talking about minor leaguers nor is it easy to normalize for them, there's increased likelihood of measurement error given incomplete or imperfect data at certain parks, and the numbers of BIP are not high in many cases.

 

But I do think this is a good data point that hedges against the odds of Morel's profile collapsing entirely with that K rate risk, especially given that he's shown some aptitude for making adjustments already. As far as his defense goes, it's worth pointing out that he spent most of his MLB time at positions he played very little of in the minors(2B and CF), but going forward he stands to rarely play given the way the roster has evolved.

[Backtobanks]

I like Morel, but I think the Cubs ought to trade him while his value is high. MLBTV has Morel at 28.2, while Jansen is at 24.8. If they won't do an even swap, tweak the deal with prospects on both ends. Then see if the Mets will swap Escobar for Bote with necessary tweaking.

[Cubswin11]

I like Morel, but I think the Cubs ought to trade him while his value is high. MLBTV has Morel at 28.2, while Jansen is at 24.8. If they won't do an even swap, tweak the deal with prospects on both ends. Then see if the Mets will swap Escobar for Bote with necessary tweaking.

The Cubs cut Bote and literally nobody took him for league min. He has negative value.

[Tim]

I like Morel, but I think the Cubs ought to trade him while his value is high. MLBTV has Morel at 28.2, while Jansen is at 24.8. If they won't do an even swap, tweak the deal with prospects on both ends. Then see if the Mets will swap Escobar for Bote with necessary tweaking.

So I take it you don't think Morel can get better then.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I like Morel, but I think the Cubs ought to trade him while his value is high. MLBTV has Morel at 28.2, while Jansen is at 24.8. If they won't do an even swap, tweak the deal with prospects on both ends. Then see if the Mets will swap Escobar for Bote with necessary tweaking.

The Cubs cut Bote and literally nobody took him for league min. He has negative value.

 

I don't think anyone had the chance to get Bote for the league minimum, he was outrighted and any team claiming him would take responsibility for his contract. He does still have negative value because of the contract though.

[Cubswin11]

I like Morel, but I think the Cubs ought to trade him while his value is high. MLBTV has Morel at 28.2, while Jansen is at 24.8. If they won't do an even swap, tweak the deal with prospects on both ends. Then see if the Mets will swap Escobar for Bote with necessary tweaking.

The Cubs cut Bote and literally nobody took him for league min. He has negative value.

 

I don't think anyone had the chance to get Bote for the league minimum, he was outrighted and any team claiming him would take responsibility for his contract. He does still have negative value because of the contract though.

I thought they cut him and he decided to take the assignment to AAA when he could’ve been an outright FA (with Cubs owing him his deal and sign as a league min)?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cubs cut Bote and literally nobody took him for league min. He has negative value.

 

I don't think anyone had the chance to get Bote for the league minimum, he was outrighted and any team claiming him would take responsibility for his contract. He does still have negative value because of the contract though.

I thought they cut him and he decided to take the assignment to AAA when he could’ve been an outright FA (with Cubs owing him his deal and sign as a league min)?

 

I'm not 100% confident on all the machinations, but I'm going off the wording here: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/outright-waivers

 

If a player has more than three years of Major League service time or was previously outrighted in his career (by his current club or another club), he is eligible to reject the outright assignment and instead opt for free agency. Players with more than three but less than five years of Major League service time must forfeit any remaining guaranteed money on their contract if they reject an outright assignment. Conversely, those with five or more years of Major League service time are still owed any guaranteed money remaining on their contract, should they elect free agency following an outright.

 

Bote does not have 5 years of service, so while he could have turned down the outright and become a FA, he would've forfeited his remaining guaranteed money.

[Bertz]

Morel needs to learn to lift the ball more and/or improve his contact rate, even if just from awful to pretty bad. But he's already patient and he hits the piss out of the ball, so the two more innate hitter qualities are already taken care of. And hell with his speed (and impending shift rules) the grounders are okay as long as they don't get worse.

 

The whiffs are bad, but not necessarily disqualifying. If I'm leaderboarding correctly, Morel has the 2nd worst in-zone contact rate among all rookies with 200+ PAs in a season going back to 2010. That's bad. However, George Springer is the #1 guy on that list. And there are several other stars near the top, including Luis Robert (#8), Austin Riley (#13), Ian Happ (#18), Matt Olson (#26), and Cody Bellinger (#29). If you're young (check) and a premium athlete (check), you're not necessarily screwed.

 

Not worried about the defense at all. Like TT said coming up Chris was a 3B who could moonlight elsewhere, and last year played mostly up the middle out of necessity. If he played 80% of the time at 3B and 20% elsewhere as intended I think he'd put up pretty strong defensive numbers too.

 

This analysis is a good reason to not totally abandon Nelly either. I'm actually more discouraged by his dog crap performance in CF than I am the strikeouts. But he is also relatively patient and barreled the ball like a star last year.

[Backtobanks]

I like Morel, but I think the Cubs ought to trade him while his value is high. MLBTV has Morel at 28.2, while Jansen is at 24.8. If they won't do an even swap, tweak the deal with prospects on both ends. Then see if the Mets will swap Escobar for Bote with necessary tweaking.

So I take it you don't think Morel can get better then.

 

Morel can get better because he's young, which is why his trade value is high and he might be of interest to the Blue Jays. Meanwhile we get a solid catcher that's controlled for 3 more years.

[Backtobanks]

I like Morel, but I think the Cubs ought to trade him while his value is high. MLBTV has Morel at 28.2, while Jansen is at 24.8. If they won't do an even swap, tweak the deal with prospects on both ends. Then see if the Mets will swap Escobar for Bote with necessary tweaking.

The Cubs cut Bote and literally nobody took him for league min. He has negative value.

 

According to MLBTV, Escobar also has negative value (though Bote's is worse). That's why prospects might need to be added.

[chopsx9]

I like Morel, but I think the Cubs ought to trade him while his value is high. MLBTV has Morel at 28.2, while Jansen is at 24.8. If they won't do an even swap, tweak the deal with prospects on both ends. Then see if the Mets will swap Escobar for Bote with necessary tweaking.

So I take it you don't think Morel can get better then.

 

Morel can get better because he's young, which is why his trade value is high and he might be of interest to the Blue Jays. Meanwhile we get a solid catcher that's controlled for 3 more years.

 

Blue Jays are desperately searching for a LH hitter - they don't have any interest in Morel for Jansen. Happ, maybe, but he only has 1YR left so I doubt they would do that. They just traded Teoscar Hernandez for a reliever to free up space and money for a LHH.

[Cubswin11]

I like Morel, but I think the Cubs ought to trade him while his value is high. MLBTV has Morel at 28.2, while Jansen is at 24.8. If they won't do an even swap, tweak the deal with prospects on both ends. Then see if the Mets will swap Escobar for Bote with necessary tweaking.

The Cubs cut Bote and literally nobody took him for league min. He has negative value.

 

According to MLBTV, Escobar also has negative value (though Bote's is worse). That's why prospects might need to be added.

How in the world does Escobar have negative value?? He makes only $10 mil this year and is expiring. He can play multiple positions and is average to plusish at them. He’s put up 2.3, 2.6, -.5 (COVID year), 2.9 and 3.5 WAR last 5 years. He’s projected for 1-2 WAR this year with average defense but power and can fit in to the lineup in multiple roles. He’s not going to take a lot to get, probably one of the pitchers who can be a SP/RP/Swing type this year and maybe a little extra lotto ticket type. But don’t see Bote having any value to them.

[Backtobanks]

The Cubs cut Bote and literally nobody took him for league min. He has negative value.

 

According to MLBTV, Escobar also has negative value (though Bote's is worse). That's why prospects might need to be added.

How in the world does Escobar have negative value?? He makes only $10 mil this year and is expiring. He can play multiple positions and is average to plusish at them. He’s put up 2.3, 2.6, -.5 (COVID year), 2.9 and 3.5 WAR last 5 years. He’s projected for 1-2 WAR this year with average defense but power and can fit in to the lineup in multiple roles. He’s not going to take a lot to get, probably one of the pitchers who can be a SP/RP/Swing type this year and maybe a little extra lotto ticket type. But don’t see Bote having any value to them.

 

MLBTV has him at -2 trade value.

[chopsx9]

 

According to MLBTV, Escobar also has negative value (though Bote's is worse). That's why prospects might need to be added.

How in the world does Escobar have negative value?? He makes only $10 mil this year and is expiring. He can play multiple positions and is average to plusish at them. He’s put up 2.3, 2.6, -.5 (COVID year), 2.9 and 3.5 WAR last 5 years. He’s projected for 1-2 WAR this year with average defense but power and can fit in to the lineup in multiple roles. He’s not going to take a lot to get, probably one of the pitchers who can be a SP/RP/Swing type this year and maybe a little extra lotto ticket type. But don’t see Bote having any value to them.

 

MLBTV has him at -2 trade value.

 

It's almost like MLBTV's numbers are just made up. :-k

[Backtobanks]

How in the world does Escobar have negative value?? He makes only $10 mil this year and is expiring. He can play multiple positions and is average to plusish at them. He’s put up 2.3, 2.6, -.5 (COVID year), 2.9 and 3.5 WAR last 5 years. He’s projected for 1-2 WAR this year with average defense but power and can fit in to the lineup in multiple roles. He’s not going to take a lot to get, probably one of the pitchers who can be a SP/RP/Swing type this year and maybe a little extra lotto ticket type. But don’t see Bote having any value to them.

 

MLBTV has him at -2 trade value.

 

It's almost like MLBTV's numbers are just made up. :-k

 

They seem to value years of control over ability sometimes.

[CubinNY]

I consider Morel in the mold of Zobrist. He's plenty valuable and should not be traded unless it's for a star-quality player. He can fill multiple positions adequately and he's likely to be league-average or maybe a little worse at the plate for all the positions. His value is hard to quantify.

[muntjack]

You're both right.

[CubinNY]

I consider Morel in the mold of Zobrist.

 

I will cut you, sir! Zobrist is a player every other prospect gets compared to and no one’s been even kinda sorta close (like every soft tossing lefty in the 2000s was the next Glavine)

Being like Zobrist and being Zobrist are not the same thing. He has more value due to his versatility probably until he hits arbitration or demonstrates he is unable to adjust at the plate. Also, not every other prospect gets compared to Zobrist.

[Bertz]

 

This is a finding in the same vein as the OP, and a quick and dirty metric you can use for sussing out who is making good swing decisions. And once again gives you some reasons for optimism on Nelly Velazquez (who led the team last year) and Chris Morel (who was above the league average). Might also show where there's some low hanging fruit for Seiya, as he had a comically low in-zone swing rate.

 

Unlike something like exit velocity though it's not unequivocally a positive. As mentioned Seiya came in below average, while Jonathan Villar finished 2nd on the team by this metric.

[sneakypower]

lol i remember doing big-time devil's advocacy for Junior Lake, nice to see a classic trope of unfounded optimism revived to help spring some much needed false hope here

 

re Morel, he had the lowest zone contact rate in baseball last year, worst mark in 5+ years (though funny enough 2018 Ian Happ was 2nd-worst) which is probably a pretty bad sign

[Transmogrified Tiger]

re Morel, he had the lowest zone contact rate in baseball last year, worst mark in 5+ years (though funny enough 2018 Ian Happ was 2nd-worst) which is probably a pretty bad sign

 

I'm not quite as pessimistic on Morel as that stat implies, but this dynamic is the type of thing that drives me nuts about a lot of statcast/next-gen fan analysis. There are attributes that are objectively good but more of them doesn't necessarily mean better when you have to sacrifice other positive attributes to get there(or don't have the skill to avoid the sacrifice). It's tantamount to saying 'wow look at his slugging percentage' for a guy hitting .200/.240/.450

[jersey cubs fan]

re Morel, he had the lowest zone contact rate in baseball last year, worst mark in 5+ years (though funny enough 2018 Ian Happ was 2nd-worst) which is probably a pretty bad sign

 

I'm not quite as pessimistic on Morel as that stat implies, but this dynamic is the type of thing that drives me nuts about a lot of statcast/next-gen fan analysis. There are attributes that are objectively good but more of them doesn't necessarily mean better when you have to sacrifice other positive attributes to get there(or don't have the skill to avoid the sacrifice). It's tantamount to saying 'wow look at his slugging percentage' for a guy hitting .200/.240/.450

Nice OPS though

[CubinNY]

Twitter doesn’t work anymore or I’d post a picture of a jacked Morel he took at the gym.