Week 13: BEARS vs. Green Bay Packers @ 1 or something

[WrigleyField 22]

QBs can cover up a whole lot, but step up to contender is still a big hurdle.

 

Look at Herbert in LA. He's been verifiably awesome, and yea they have done injuries too, but they put a lot into the team around him and not getting much better than replacement level results.

 

So the Bears can probably pretty easily improve to a 7-8 win team by just putting a modicum of resources into the team around Fields. But getting to that 11-12 win mark.. A lot can go wrong in between.

 

Heck even with whatever limitations Poles had, I think they coulda put 7-8 win talent around Fields this year and they just mostly punted. So it kind of sets up that expectation where you expect them to just skip any interim step, but that's extremely hard to do. And entering the last year of that cash window, they kind of have to spend like they're trying to contend, so it's gonna reinforce those expectations.

[Bertz]

 

Bears project on average to 3.9 wins, aside from Houston no other team projects south of 5. So the current expectation based on the projections is essentially

 

3 wins - Houston

4 wins - Bears

5 wins - Rams, Broncos, Cardinals,

6 wins - Panthers, Saints, Colts

 

The Bears have no shot against the Eagles and Bills, so as long as they don't beat both the Lions and Vikings they should be locked into #2.

[raw]

QBs can cover up a whole lot, but step up to contender is still a big hurdle.

 

Look at Herbert in LA. He's been verifiably awesome, and yea they have done injuries too, but they put a lot into the team around him and not getting much better than replacement level results.

 

So the Bears can probably pretty easily improve to a 7-8 win team by just putting a modicum of resources into the team around Fields. But getting to that 11-12 win mark.. A lot can go wrong in between.

 

Heck even with whatever limitations Poles had, I think they coulda put 7-8 win talent around Fields this year and they just mostly punted. So it kind of sets up that expectation where you expect them to just skip any interim step, but that's extremely hard to do. And entering the last year of that cash window, they kind of have to spend like they're trying to contend, so it's gonna reinforce those expectations.

 

Yeah, I thought about the Chargers when I made my post about Fields covering up stuff. But to be fair, even though they were 9-8 last year and 6-6 so far this year, they competed for a playoff spot last year until literally the last play of OT. They are a game out right now. They are underachieving in general, but seem to be pretty poorly coached (and I loved the hire of Staley). That franchise may just be cursed.

 

That being said, there's nothing to say the Bears aren't cursed either so.....LOL.

[WrigleyField 22]

To no surprise, Fields has hit best passing grade of the season from PFF. Scored an 82. Prior season high was 63.5. Second highest passing grade of his career after the Pittsburgh game last year.

 

Overall a 90.4 offense grade.

 

Jones, Whitehair, Kmet, Leatherwood, and Reiff all graded well. Technically Harry had top grade, but that was 5 snaps.

[raw]

 

Bears project on average to 3.9 wins, aside from Houston no other team projects south of 5. So the current expectation based on the projections is essentially

 

3 wins - Houston

4 wins - Bears

5 wins - Rams, Broncos, Cardinals,

6 wins - Panthers, Saints, Colts

 

The Bears have no shot against the Eagles and Bills, so as long as they don't beat both the Lions and Vikings they should be locked into #2.

 

IDK about that. The Broncos have won 1 game since Sept, and seem to find more miserable ways to lose than the Bears right now. They got the Chiefs twice and a Chargers team that will be desperate Week 18. Rams/Broncos do play each other, but I wouldn't count on the other winning another game if they can't win that one. Rams schedule is easier, but have no Stafford or Kupp the rest of the year. Donald is missing time now. They have incentive to win (no 1st rounder), but may not have the ability.

[raw]

To no surprise, Fields has hit best passing grade of the season from PFF. Scored an 82. Prior season high was 63.5. Second highest passing grade of his career after the Pittsburgh game last year.

 

Overall a 90.4 offense grade.

 

Jones, Whitehair, Kmet, Leatherwood, and Reiff all graded well. Technically Harry had top grade, but that was 5 snaps.

 

It's a surprise to a fraction of Bears twitter who are fixated on the 2 INTs and Fields not coming thru in the clutch.

[minnesotacubsfan]

To no surprise, Fields has hit best passing grade of the season from PFF. Scored an 82. Prior season high was 63.5. Second highest passing grade of his career after the Pittsburgh game last year.

 

Overall a 90.4 offense grade.

 

Jones, Whitehair, Kmet, Leatherwood, and Reiff all graded well. Technically Harry had top grade, but that was 5 snaps.

 

can you post a screen shot of them, O and D? or is that UM's territory?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Playcalling is like bullpen management. It's uncanny how bad you are at it when your players suck and how good you are at it when they don't.

[UMFan83]

QBs can cover up a whole lot, but step up to contender is still a big hurdle.

 

Look at Herbert in LA. He's been verifiably awesome, and yea they have done injuries too, but they put a lot into the team around him and not getting much better than replacement level results.

 

So the Bears can probably pretty easily improve to a 7-8 win team by just putting a modicum of resources into the team around Fields. But getting to that 11-12 win mark.. A lot can go wrong in between.

 

Heck even with whatever limitations Poles had, I think they coulda put 7-8 win talent around Fields this year and they just mostly punted. So it kind of sets up that expectation where you expect them to just skip any interim step, but that's extremely hard to do. And entering the last year of that cash window, they kind of have to spend like they're trying to contend, so it's gonna reinforce those expectations.

 

Completely agree. I'm excited about the cap space and high draft pick and all of that but like 90% of the Bears roster is currently marginal NFL talent. They have a lot to fix. You can rebuild quickly in the NFL, but Poles will need to have a very high hit rate IMO to be a contender next year. But its interesting that there's this conflict between Poles taking time to add pieces through the draft and FA and building out the roster to be set for long term success and the ticking clock that is Fields' rookie contract. My guess is that Poles would prefer to be slow and deliberate, but you also have to try to take advantage of an elite QB on a rookie deal because that dude is getting paid eventually.

[WrigleyField 22]

To no surprise, Fields has hit best passing grade of the season from PFF. Scored an 82. Prior season high was 63.5. Second highest passing grade of his career after the Pittsburgh game last year.

 

Overall a 90.4 offense grade.

 

Jones, Whitehair, Kmet, Leatherwood, and Reiff all graded well. Technically Harry had top grade, but that was 5 snaps.

 

can you post a screen shot of them, O and D? or is that UM's territory?

Counting on umfan because I'm lazy lol. I think theres a reddit that had it each week?

[UMFan83]

To no surprise, Fields has hit best passing grade of the season from PFF. Scored an 82. Prior season high was 63.5. Second highest passing grade of his career after the Pittsburgh game last year.

 

Overall a 90.4 offense grade.

 

Jones, Whitehair, Kmet, Leatherwood, and Reiff all graded well. Technically Harry had top grade, but that was 5 snaps.

 

can you post a screen shot of them, O and D? or is that UM's territory?

Counting on umfan because I'm lazy lol. I think theres a reddit that had it each week?

 

Yeah I don't have PFF, I pull it from the reddit post. I haven't seen one yet this week. I didn't see one last week either so perhaps the dude that is posting them has lost interest.

 

Edit: I just asked them if they could post them as they were just commenting on Fields' grade

Edited December 5, 2022 by UMFan83

[raw]

QBs can cover up a whole lot, but step up to contender is still a big hurdle.

 

Look at Herbert in LA. He's been verifiably awesome, and yea they have done injuries too, but they put a lot into the team around him and not getting much better than replacement level results.

 

So the Bears can probably pretty easily improve to a 7-8 win team by just putting a modicum of resources into the team around Fields. But getting to that 11-12 win mark.. A lot can go wrong in between.

 

Heck even with whatever limitations Poles had, I think they coulda put 7-8 win talent around Fields this year and they just mostly punted. So it kind of sets up that expectation where you expect them to just skip any interim step, but that's extremely hard to do. And entering the last year of that cash window, they kind of have to spend like they're trying to contend, so it's gonna reinforce those expectations.

 

Completely agree. I'm excited about the cap space and high draft pick and all of that but like 90% of the Bears roster is currently marginal NFL talent. They have a lot to fix. You can rebuild quickly in the NFL, but Poles will need to have a very high hit rate IMO to be a contender next year. But its interesting that there's this conflict between Poles taking time to add pieces through the draft and FA and building out the roster to be set for long term success and the ticking clock that is Fields' rookie contract. My guess is that Poles would prefer to be slow and deliberate, but you also have to try to take advantage of an elite QB on a rookie deal because that dude is getting paid eventually.

 

It's not even that IMO. He actually can't take his time because he has way too much money that HAS to be spent this offseason. Be one thing if he could just hand out extensions but there's not much on this team to extend (traded away 1 major extension candidate) and players with less than 3 years can't even be extended. He can want to be slow and deliberate all he wants, but he put himself into a situation where that's not even possible.

[David]

Completely agree. I'm excited about the cap space and high draft pick and all of that but like 90% of the Bears roster is currently marginal NFL talent. They have a lot to fix. You can rebuild quickly in the NFL, but Poles will need to have a very high hit rate IMO to be a contender next year. But its interesting that there's this conflict between Poles taking time to add pieces through the draft and FA and building out the roster to be set for long term success and the ticking clock that is Fields' rookie contract. My guess is that Poles would prefer to be slow and deliberate, but you also have to try to take advantage of an elite QB on a rookie deal because that dude is getting paid eventually.

 

The flip side to that is they've had a chance to win most games late, thanks to how good Fields is. If they can do that with marginal NFL talent all over the roster, it's not hard to see how much they can improve just by solidifying some of those areas. That's an easy upgrade. And there are lots of places they can and will do that. There is a lot of easily identifiable room for improvement.

 

They have the QB and the rest isn't hard. And it's even less difficult with the assets (super high pick that they'll hopefully trade out of)/cap space they should have.

[Bertz]

Completely agree. I'm excited about the cap space and high draft pick and all of that but like 90% of the Bears roster is currently marginal NFL talent. They have a lot to fix. You can rebuild quickly in the NFL, but Poles will need to have a very high hit rate IMO to be a contender next year. But its interesting that there's this conflict between Poles taking time to add pieces through the draft and FA and building out the roster to be set for long term success and the ticking clock that is Fields' rookie contract. My guess is that Poles would prefer to be slow and deliberate, but you also have to try to take advantage of an elite QB on a rookie deal because that dude is getting paid eventually.

 

The flip side to that is they've had a chance to win most games late, thanks to how good Fields is. If they can do that with marginal NFL talent all over the roster, it's not hard to see how much they can improve just by solidifying some of those areas. That's an easy upgrade. And there are lots of places they can and will do that. There is a lot of easily identifiable room for improvement.

 

They have the QB and the rest isn't hard. And it's even less difficult with the assets (super high pick that they'll hopefully trade out of)/cap space they should have.

 

Yeah even with a tough schedule all but two of the games Fields has started have been one score games late. If Fields doesn't regress next year, I'm not worried at all about being a contender. Any horsefeathers who plays franchise mode in Madden could get this team up to 8-10 wins next year given the resources provided, the challenge is getting this team up to the caliber of competing for a first round bye.

[WrigleyField 22]

QBs can cover up a whole lot, but step up to contender is still a big hurdle.

 

Look at Herbert in LA. He's been verifiably awesome, and yea they have done injuries too, but they put a lot into the team around him and not getting much better than replacement level results.

 

So the Bears can probably pretty easily improve to a 7-8 win team by just putting a modicum of resources into the team around Fields. But getting to that 11-12 win mark.. A lot can go wrong in between.

 

Heck even with whatever limitations Poles had, I think they coulda put 7-8 win talent around Fields this year and they just mostly punted. So it kind of sets up that expectation where you expect them to just skip any interim step, but that's extremely hard to do. And entering the last year of that cash window, they kind of have to spend like they're trying to contend, so it's gonna reinforce those expectations.

 

Completely agree. I'm excited about the cap space and high draft pick and all of that but like 90% of the Bears roster is currently marginal NFL talent. They have a lot to fix. You can rebuild quickly in the NFL, but Poles will need to have a very high hit rate IMO to be a contender next year. But its interesting that there's this conflict between Poles taking time to add pieces through the draft and FA and building out the roster to be set for long term success and the ticking clock that is Fields' rookie contract. My guess is that Poles would prefer to be slow and deliberate, but you also have to try to take advantage of an elite QB on a rookie deal because that dude is getting paid eventually.

 

It's not even that IMO. He actually can't take his time because he has way too much money that HAS to be spent this offseason. Be one thing if he could just hand out extensions but there's not much on this team to extend (traded away 1 major extension candidate) and players with less than 3 years can't even be extended. He can want to be slow and deliberate all he wants, but he put himself into a situation where that's not even possible.

I may run some extension estimates, but yea, I don't think there's a ton there. Like, I'm not sure Claypool and Mooney should get even more than Courtland Sutton money and at that price they may balk.

 

Jaylon Johnson could be a big number since he's a corner, but there should probably be some legit doubt about an early extension for him, especially if it takes top 5 money.

 

No on Vildor, Gipson.

 

Leaves Kmet who I'd definitely look to extend and think you can reach a fair number for both sides (but it won't be huge).

[Old Style]

With the draft picks and available cap space the Bears had better be a playoff contender at least next season. I realize there are a lot of holes to file but as we have seen Fields can cover up a lot of issues with his ridiculous talent. Get a true #1 WR in the draft, look to build an OL via FA and whatever salvageable pieces we have, and then rebuild the front 7 on D through a combo of draft & FA. The Packers are not good and heading in the wrong direction. The Lions are heading in the right direction but still not all that good. So we should be able to compete for the division crown next season if Poles doesn't horsefeathers the bed this offseason.

[Soul]

With the draft picks and available cap space the Bears had better be a playoff contender at least next season. I realize there are a lot of holes to file but as we have seen Fields can cover up a lot of issues with his ridiculous talent. Get a true #1 WR in the draft, look to build an OL via FA and whatever salvageable pieces we have, and then rebuild the front 7 on D through a combo of draft & FA. The Packers are not good and heading in the wrong direction. The Lions are heading in the right direction but still not all that good. So we should be able to compete for the division crown next season if Poles doesn't horsefeathers the bed this offseason.

 

With Poles' moves so far as GM, he's acknowledged that the Bears weren't good even with their key players so he started dealing them. I'm on board with that. In the process though, he's basically said I've got this. A ton to work with and confident he can pick and acquire the limited good/great talent even though all other teams will be competing with him for the same.

 

I like the confidence, but we shall see...

 

Like you, I'm looking for playoff contention - meaningful December games. If they don't progress to that point I'm going to sour on Poles, same as I did with Pace.

[WrigleyField 22]

horsefeathers, trying to run my comps for Kmet and it's tough. Might have to upgrade my expectations here though. He's probably a 10M AAV guy, though comps are all less than perfect.

 

Lot of guys getting paid lately probably got paid on flashier tools and potential. But Kmet still one of the youngest TEs in league so even though he doesn't have flashy combine like metrics, he has a potential case.

[UMFan83]

 

can you post a screen shot of them, O and D? or is that UM's territory?

Counting on umfan because I'm lazy lol. I think theres a reddit that had it each week?

 

Yeah I don't have PFF, I pull it from the reddit post. I haven't seen one yet this week. I didn't see one last week either so perhaps the dude that is posting them has lost interest.

 

Edit: I just asked them if they could post them as they were just commenting on Fields' grade

 

Alright I got him to post the grades. Have a day N'Keal Harry!

 

[WrigleyField 22]

Couple UDFA with the standout D grades.

 

I've been skeptical about Sanborn as the starter for next year, but he just keeps making the case.

[Soul]

Couple UDFA with the standout D grades.

 

I've been skeptical about Sanborn as the starter for next year, but he just keeps making the case.

 

Of course I'm biased so I'll avoid gushing on here, but I'm really happy seeing him perform above expectations.

[Tryptamine]

If Leatherwood is a thing, that's pretty huge.

 

Nice 37.5 on the pass blocking for Mustipher.

[WrigleyField 22]

If Leatherwood is a thing, that's pretty huge.

 

Nice 37.5 on the pass blocking for Mustipher.

He can compete with Jones. Bears still need a big FA add at OT.

 

Also, it was 10 snaps so...

[minnesotacubsfan]

Yea, sharing time with Reiff doesn't show too much but heres to it hopefully being something.

 

Also, I'm in on Sanborn. he's been playing as well as Roquan was, besides the D's needs are on the D-line anyway.

[raw]

Yeah, I would love Leatherwood to be a thing. But he can play 60 snaps each of the last 4 games and pancake his man every play and I still wouldn't feel comfortable with him in a starting spot. Bears have had a lot of OL injuries this year. If he can be a versatile backup, that's a win in my book.