Week 13: BEARS vs. Green Bay Packers @ 1 or something

[raw]

Time to start thinking about the offseason if you're the Bears. I've been looking at some stuff and figured I'd start with analyzing the current roster.

 

QB- Fields, Siemien, Peterman, Boyle

Obviously, Fields is QB1 next year. Siemien stays as QB2. Peterman and Boyle get jettisoned back to coach HS ball unless you need them again as a camp body or injury replacement next year.

 

RB- Montgomery (FA), Herbert, Evans, Ebner, Blasingame (FB-FA)

Tough decision here, but I let Montgomery walk. Personally, I'm looking for more of a big play guy to compliment Herbert. I'd probably do a 2-for-1 here and get a speed guy and a big short yardage guy, unless you do something crazy like sign Barkley or Jacobs (which I wouldn't dislike). Bears have a ton of money, this could be a fun place to spend it and get a dynamic talent next to Justin. Evans is a RFA, keep him for a camp body at worst. Ebner, if the regime is tied to their draft pick can be RB4, but should have to fight for a roster spot next year. Can take or leave Blasingame. Can be upgraded. FB isn't necessary though I acknowledge they probably have one.

 

WR- Mooney, Claypool, Jones Jr, St. Brown (FA), Harry (FA), Pettis (FA), Pringle (FA), Fountain (PS), Webster (PS)

First 3 guys are locks for the roster. Interesting will be if either, neither, or both are signed to long-term deals. My guess is Mooney = yes. Claypool = no. The last 2 on the 53-man are locks to be gone. I think maybe you keep 1 of the big guys (ESB, Harry), but obviously not married to either at this point. Harry has more upside but can't get on the field on a bad unit. Pettis and Pringle getting so many snaps leads me to believe the Bears may focus on a slot WR in this draft, in an odd place because not going to take one top 5 and may not get one late 2nd. Practice squad guys are no good.

 

TE- Kmet, Griffin (FA), Wesco (FA), Tonges, Chase Allen (PS)

Kmet obviously a lock and possible extension candidate. Griffin, Wesco and Tonges can be easily replaced. Allen is an intriguing 6'6 practice squad guy, that might get a look next year but shouldn't be more than TE3 or TE4.

 

OT- Jones, Borom, Reiff (FA), Leatherwood, Diesch (PS)

Jones is a lock, probably going to remain at LT. IDK that there's any prospect in this draft that could move him to RT, unless Fashanu from Penn St changes his mind. Reiff goes. Leatherwood stays as depth. Borom is probably a trade/cut candidate. Diesch is actually really intriguing and had a good camp in Miami. But he shouldn't be better than OT4, with Leatherwood OT3. Gotta add a FA or early draft pick to start opposite of Braxton. Depth seems fine w/or without Borom.

 

OG/C- Whitehair, Mustipher (FA?), Jenkins, Schofield (FA), Eiselen, Patrick, Carter, Niese (PS), Kramer (inj)

Jenkins should be a lock. But the staff effed with him a bit early this year. His performance seems to suggest he should be at RG next year (wouldn't hate him getting a shot at RT again, but whatever). Mustipher and Schofield are gone. Tough decision is Whitehair vs. Patrick. I think I cut Whitehair and his 14.1Mil cap hit and keep Patrick to play the C position he was brought in to play. Spend money to upgrade LG (Elgton Jenkins seems like a no-brainer), Teven at RG. Upgrade RT and Patrick is fine as a cheap-ish weak link on the line. Carter, Niese, Kramer and Eiselen are fodder. Bring in at least 1 really good vet depth piece. Maybe even draft a guy early Day 3. Maybe 1 of those 5 (fodder and rookie) makes the roster.

[raw]

Separate for defense.

 

DE- Gipson, Robinson, Muhammad, Charlton

Muhammad has to go. He's been terrible this year. Gipson went from potential extension candidate to just a body. Robinson went from potential steal of the draft with 1.5 sacks in Week 1, to 0 sacks since. You keep both because they are young and cheap, but they should be guys getting 35% of the snaps instead of 45-55% like they are. Means you need 2 good players here. I'd sign a solid FA, without spending huge money here. IDK if you can justify big money so soon after the Mack & Quinn trades, even if you have the money. Just a solid starter, better than Muhammad was supposed to be. Then you have to use 1 of the first 2 picks here. Will Anderson is an obvious candidate. But there's some Day 2 guys I really like as well, even if just pass rush specialists. Charlton can go back wherever he was 2 weeks ago.

 

DT- Jones, Watts (FA), Pennel (FA), Blackson (FA), Brown, Coley (PS), Holmes (PS)

Pennel and Blackson are horrible. I might bring back Watts. He's OK as a DT4, not a starter. Jones is OK as DT2, not DT1, cheap enough to give a shot playing next to better talent. Lot of good FAs here. While all of them may not make it to the market, the Bears 100% have to get one of the top guys. They have the most money and the biggest need. Jalen Carter an obvious draft candidate, but I'm thinking the Bears sign a FA so good that it takes DT way down the list of needs. Sign another depth piece in FA. Maybe draft a guy here late. Coley, Brown, Holmes and Watts compete for DT4 in camp

 

LB- Sanborn, Morrow, Thomas, Adams, Weatherford, Gates

Sanborn the only lock here. Weatherford you might as well bring back as a teamer. I liked Gates a lot in preseason. But he's depth at best. Probably need to add 3 guys here. I'd sign a MIKE LB to solidify the position, clear upgrade over Morrow so have to spend some money here. I'd draft a guy as well, Eberflus has a good history drafting Day 2 LBs. My ideal lineup would be FA MLB, Sanborn at SAM LB and a high upside draft pick at WLB. But Sanborn has shown fine as a WLB, so if the rookie isn't ready can put anyone at SAM for 30% of the snaps.

 

CB- Johnson, Gordon, Vildor, Jones, Layne, Blackwell, Borders (PS), Hand (PS)

Johnson and Gordon are obvious locks. Johnson potential extension candidate, but IDK if I do that just yet. Blackwell and Jaylon Jones have shown well when they've had to play for the most part. Not bad players to have as CB4-5-or-6. Key here is upgrading Vildor. It's fine if he's on the roster, but he has to be on the bench and special teams. I'd probably sign a moderately priced upgrade (nothing over 6-8Mil) and draft a guy on Day 3 here. Practice guys are older and have no purpose.

 

S- Jackson, Brisker, Houston-Carson (FA), Hicks, AJ Thomas, Colbert (PS)

Brisker is a lock, hopefully for a very long time. I love DHC and I hope the Bears bring him back. No ties to this regime, but I'd give him a modest multi-year (3) deal for the first time in his career. He's solid depth. Hicks has been better than I expected, hated the pick. Fine as depth. Thomas and Colbert are bodies, they can be replaced by other bodies if necessary. Jackson is a key here. Sounds like the injury isn't as bad as expected and no surgery. But has an ugly 17M cap hit. Do you pay him that because you have the money to do so? Do you restructure to move money and keep a 30 year old longer? Do you cut yet another defensive leader and find a replacement? I say the first one, let him play out next year at 17M, probably gone after 2023 though. Keep Jackson and DHC and you probably don't have to do much here other than back end of 53 man adds.

[WrigleyField 22]

I'm not terribly worried about Jackson or Whitehair. On both guys, a lot of the cap hit is dead anyways. When you look at their base salaries they are both probably okay values. I'd much rather sign a C and push Patrick to backup or off the roster (original round tender Mustipher and let then battle for the backup C role). Jackson is only move on if the injury was a big concern. Could be convinced to move on from Whitehair, but I see him more as a surprise cut candidate in July than a guy you cut in March.

 

Overall good writeups though.

 

2 OL

3 DL

Choose one of LB, CB, WR3, RB2.

 

That's your wave 1-2 FA shopping list. Half a dozen+ depth pieces at/near minimum in the 3rd and 4th waves of FA for the rest + backups. Resign some of the depth/ST guys like Blasingame, Wesco, DHC to minimum-ish deals (though I'd consider a 2 year deal for DHC).

 

Draft could be fascinating if they end up with second pick or kind of boring if they drop to 5th/6th.

 

If they are at 5th and say 1-4 is some combo of Young, Stroud, Anderson, Carter... What do you do? Reach for Quentin Johnson and that X WR1 upside? Hope someone is trying to trade up for Levis or Robinson? Go safe-ish for like a Skoronski? Murphy/Wilson also at DE just for position premium? Ringo (maybe dependent on where they see a possible Jaylon Johnson extension going)

[Bertz]

I don't like spending money on RBs, but given that Poles is going to be living out the NFL version of Brewsters Millions this offseason he 100% needs to upgrade from Montgomery to Barkley or Jacobs. Especially with how bereft the WR market is.

[Old Style]

I still want to add a true #1 WR.

[jersey cubs fan]

WR- Mooney, Claypool, Jones Jr, St. Brown (FA), Harry (FA), Pettis (FA), Pringle (FA), Fountain (PS), Webster (PS)

First 3 guys are locks for the roster.

Is Velus really a lock? I would hope they acquire enough assets to at least make it possible he’s off the team by the time summer comes along. He’s done nothing. He’s older and there cannot be much of a cap hit by cutting him.

[WrigleyField 22]

WR- Mooney, Claypool, Jones Jr, St. Brown (FA), Harry (FA), Pettis (FA), Pringle (FA), Fountain (PS), Webster (PS)

First 3 guys are locks for the roster.

Is Velus really a lock? I would hope they acquire enough assets to at least make it possible he’s off the team by the time summer comes along. He’s done nothing. He’s older and there cannot be much of a cap hit by cutting him.

Yea, minimal cap impact. Probably pretty safe but not a true lock. He'd cement his lock status if he could prove to be trusted on punts. But if he can't be your punt returner, you're automatically in a tough spot in the WR room.

 

Ideal WR is something like:

(1-3) Mooney + Claypool + day 1 or day 2 pick

(4) Veteran slot FA

(5) Punt and Kick returner + gadget (Velus?)

(6) ST coverage guy + backup WR (Bellamy type)

 

Right now, Pringle is their only WR who contributes a little on ST in a non return role. And then splitting return duties means a guy like Pettis is forced to take up offensive snaps. It's just a really inefficient room from a roster 53 composition right now.

 

If Velus can't return punts though, either that vet slot guy or rookie or maybe a DB has to be able to. But it'd be much easier to get a replacement level KR at one of those spots (or RB) than a PR specialist. Or you get a true return specialist who actually can be both.

[raw]

WR- Mooney, Claypool, Jones Jr, St. Brown (FA), Harry (FA), Pettis (FA), Pringle (FA), Fountain (PS), Webster (PS)

First 3 guys are locks for the roster.

Is Velus really a lock? I would hope they acquire enough assets to at least make it possible he’s off the team by the time summer comes along. He’s done nothing. He’s older and there cannot be much of a cap hit by cutting him.

 

Yeah, he's a lock. He's not a lock to be in the offensive rotation as more than a gimmick player, but he will be on this team. He's been playing special teams on coverage and returns. He has a pair of 40+ yard returns (actually leads NFL in average, but small sample size), so he has some value even if he's never an actual NFL WR.

[raw]

I don't like spending money on RBs, but given that Poles is going to be living out the NFL version of Brewsters Millions this offseason he 100% needs to upgrade from Montgomery to Barkley or Jacobs. Especially with how bereft the WR market is.

 

I just want something else "fun" with this offense. Fields is fun on his own, but another gamebreaker would be awesome. It's probably not happening at WR since the draft isn't great there and they are locked in with Mooney and Claypool for at least 2 years. It's probably not happening at TE with Kmet. So, RB is a place where I would like a fun little splurge.

 

I don't think Barkley will really be available. Jacobs will probably cost just as much at this point with the season he's having. I wonder if a guy like Tony Pollard will walk from Dallas. IDK if they can get out of Elliot's contract yet, but he'd be fun. Also, if they are able to trade down and get a bunch of picks, I like the thought of using one on Jamyhr Gibbs from Alabama, who is a smaller RB that can fly and is a legit weapon receiving out of the backfield. The thought of Fields with a low 4.4 speed RB also capable of taking a zone read to the house is intriguing.

[WrigleyField 22]

Pollard is working himself into a potential big deal.

 

But even at the lower end of the market, I think theres gonna be interesting options, like a Kareem Hunt. More I think about it though, I really think Montgomery could be cheap to retain.

[raw]

Pollard is working himself into a potential big deal.

 

But even at the lower end of the market, I think theres gonna be interesting options, like a Kareem Hunt. More I think about it though, I really think Montgomery could be cheap to retain.

 

Hunt is a Montgomery clone to me. Not as tough to bring down, but similar lack of 2nd gear that's not a great fit for outside zone runs.

 

I do like Singletary from Buffalo and Miles Sanders from the Eagles though. If you want experience in the offense, Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr can both fly from Miami.

[jersey cubs fan]

WR- Mooney, Claypool, Jones Jr, St. Brown (FA), Harry (FA), Pettis (FA), Pringle (FA), Fountain (PS), Webster (PS)

First 3 guys are locks for the roster.

Is Velus really a lock? I would hope they acquire enough assets to at least make it possible he’s off the team by the time summer comes along. He’s done nothing. He’s older and there cannot be much of a cap hit by cutting him.

 

Yeah, he's a lock. He's not a lock to be in the offensive rotation as more than a gimmick player, but he will be on this team. He's been playing special teams on coverage and returns. He has a pair of 40+ yard returns (actually leads NFL in average, but small sample size), so he has some value even if he's never an actual NFL WR.

I’ll take your word for it, but that’s disappointing. Keeping Velus and losing Montgomery while adding some 2nd day slot receiver does little to add to the skill position talent this offseason. You’re going into 2023 begging Fields to make an inferior group productive.

[minnesotacubsfan]

what is the penalty for the Bears if Poles doesnt hit the salary floor?

[UK]

I was just going to type how much I would love Pollard in this offense. However, both him and Herbert are terrible at pass protection.

 

If they draft top 3, I take Anderson. Top 2, entertain trades but Young or Stroud don't have much value.

 

After top 3, I draft Johnson given the poor FA group of WRs. If you draft Johnson, I would consider extending only Mooney. If not, I would look into extending both Mooney and Claypool. I'm not sure Mooney or Claypool can be better than your 3rd best in a decent WR group.

 

I'm not sold on Jones in the same role as Leno developed into. I think he's more of a backup swing tackle. McGlinchey or Brown for T.

 

I'd cut Whitehair. Draft G in the 1st 3 rounds.

 

Sign Pollard at RB.

 

Draft Anderson, sign Payne at DT. sign a FA LB. Cut Jackson, draft a S 1st 4 rounds. Go hard after Jamel Dean and extend Johnson.

[Tim]

I'm still hoping that a more elite receiver gets traded as a cap casualty or because those guys are always unhappy and demands a trade.

[WrigleyField 22]

what is the penalty for the Bears if Poles doesnt hit the salary floor?

Cuts a check to the NFLPA for the shortfall and they decide how to divy it up among any guys who the Bears rostered from 2021-2023.

 

Edit - and my financially minded answer is that in a rising cap environment, lost purchasing power.

[WrigleyField 22]

I'm still hoping that a more elite receiver gets traded as a cap casualty or because those guys are always unhappy and demands a trade.

Obviously hard to predict.

 

But I'm somewhat skeptical Poles wants to go in on a Mooney-Claypool-Trade target all needing extensions. Yea they're sunk costs at this stage, and he could let Mooney walk next year and try and collect the comp pick for him, but I do kind of think Claypool was the move and he'll try to add the BIG name WR through the draft. Claypool raises the floor enough to allow him to do that.

Edited December 6, 2022 by WrigleyField 22

[raw]

I'm still hoping that a more elite receiver gets traded as a cap casualty or because those guys are always unhappy and demands a trade.

Obviously hard to predict.

 

But I'm somewhat skeptical Poles wants to go in on a Mooney-Claypool-Trade target all needing extensions. Yea they're sunk costs at this stage, and he coild let Mooney walk next year and try and collect the comp pick for him, but I do kind of think Claypool was the move and hell try to add the BIG name WR through the draft. Claypool raises the floor enough to allow him to do that.

 

Yeah, I think Mooney and Claypool are it on the established WR front. I mean, they'll probably add another vet or 2 to replace St. Brown and Pettis, but I don't expect any big dollars thrown around and probably not even any early picks going out. Just tough to justify trading a 2 for Claypool then a 1 or 2 for someone like a Jerry Jeudy. Maybe another guy like Kadarius Toney comes available, but IDK if that type of player moves the needle too much, and he still cost a 3rd round pick.

 

That's why I really prefer a trade down in this draft. Whether it's 2nd pick or 3-7. No offensive value that early. And I want offense. Whether it's Quinton Johnston early or you get a mid-late 1 and get Smith-Njigba, I feel like the only way they add a #1 WR is if they draft and develop one. And it's justifiable to take one in the 1st, because he'll still be cheap enough with Mooney and Claypool due paydays.

[WrigleyField 22]

But anyways looking ahead to 2024 WR FA as those would be your "surprise guys"

 

Justin Jefferson. Obviously would be flabbergasted to see him moved. You can probably remove the Bears as a landing spot if he somehow was anyways.

 

Tee Higgins. Much speculated due to Bengals financial constraints

 

Michael Pittman. Definite possibility as they could be headed for a blow-up

 

CeeDee Lamb. No way, this was the whole reason Jerry dumped Amari Cooper for practically nothing.

 

Marquise Brown. Would be a surprise since they gave up a first, but haven't extended him yet. If a FO blew up happened though, a new GM might look to move on and recoup that cost.

 

A level down then you have Gabriel Davis, Donavon Peoples Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jerry Juedy. Really still guys who are all about potential and really on the same or slightly lesser level than Mooney/Claypool.

 

Those are all the young guys at least. Old guys who could become trade or cut surprises: Mike Evans, De'Andre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd. Then your veteran 'never quite were' guys like Corey Davis, Robbie Anderson who could be cut based on their current salary.

[raw]

Is Velus really a lock? I would hope they acquire enough assets to at least make it possible he’s off the team by the time summer comes along. He’s done nothing. He’s older and there cannot be much of a cap hit by cutting him.

 

Yeah, he's a lock. He's not a lock to be in the offensive rotation as more than a gimmick player, but he will be on this team. He's been playing special teams on coverage and returns. He has a pair of 40+ yard returns (actually leads NFL in average, but small sample size), so he has some value even if he's never an actual NFL WR.

I’ll take your word for it, but that’s disappointing. Keeping Velus and losing Montgomery while adding some 2nd day slot receiver does little to add to the skill position talent this offseason. You’re going into 2023 begging Fields to make an inferior group productive.

 

Yeah, that's why I'm almost 100% trading down if I have a choice. I love the top defensive players in this draft, but I want offense. Ideally, you get one of the top WRs with a modest trade down. Pick up an early 2nd and take a tackle, then take a DE with the Seattle pick. Wouldn't complain about getting top OT and a 2nd round slot WR, because OL is just as important. But I just want an elite talent on the offense. Fields with a bunch of Day 2 guys probably isn't good enough.

[raw]

But anyways looking ahead to 2024 WR FA as those would be your "surprise guys"

 

Justin Jefferson. Obviously would be flabbergasted to see him moved. You can probably remove the Bears as a landing spot if he somehow was anyways.

 

Tee Higgins. Much speculated due to Bengals financial constraints

 

Michael Pittman. Definite possibility as they could be headed for a blow-up

 

CeeDee Lamb. No way, this was the whole reason Jerry dumped Amari Cooper for practically nothing.

 

Marquise Brown. Would be a surprise since they gave up a first, but haven't extended him yet. If a FO blew up happened though, a new GM might look to move on and recoup that cost.

 

A level down then you have Gabriel Davis, Donavon Peoples Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jerry Juedy. Really still guys who are all about potential and really on the same or slightly lesser level than Mooney/Claypool.

 

Those are all the young guys at least. Old guys who could become trade or cut surprises: Mike Evans, De'Andre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd. Then your veteran 'never quite were' guys like Corey Davis, Robbie Anderson who could be cut based on their current salary.

 

I have a theory that the Bears are targeting a slot guy. Velus was their draft pick. He's more slot WR if anything, though he's not much of a WR at all. Pettis is 3rd on the team in snaps despite having the least future value because of his ability to play the slot. Pringle was activated and made active right away after coming back from injury, because of his ability to play the slot.

 

So out of all those guys, the only slot guy is likely Jeudy. DPJ can give you some snaps there as well. But those others would force Mooney into the slot full time, which if they wanted to do that, I think we would have seen Harry on the outside much more than we have.

[Tryptamine]

But anyways looking ahead to 2024 WR FA as those would be your "surprise guys"

 

Justin Jefferson. Obviously would be flabbergasted to see him moved. You can probably remove the Bears as a landing spot if he somehow was anyways.

 

Tee Higgins. Much speculated due to Bengals financial constraints

Michael Pittman. Definite possibility as they could be headed for a blow-up

 

CeeDee Lamb. No way, this was the whole reason Jerry dumped Amari Cooper for practically nothing.

 

Marquise Brown. Would be a surprise since they gave up a first, but haven't extended him yet. If a FO blew up happened though, a new GM might look to move on and recoup that cost.

 

A level down then you have Gabriel Davis, Donavon Peoples Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jerry Juedy. Really still guys who are all about potential and really on the same or slightly lesser level than Mooney/Claypool.

 

Those are all the young guys at least. Old guys who could become trade or cut surprises: Mike Evans, De'Andre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd. Then your veteran 'never quite were' guys like Corey Davis, Robbie Anderson who could be cut based on their current salary.

 

This is the dream, but I can't imagine it would be cheap.

[sneakypower]

probably not much of a surprise given his grade but Fields was PFF QB of the week:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-13-pff-team-of-the-week-player-awards

[WrigleyField 22]

But anyways looking ahead to 2024 WR FA as those would be your "surprise guys"

 

Justin Jefferson. Obviously would be flabbergasted to see him moved. You can probably remove the Bears as a landing spot if he somehow was anyways.

 

Tee Higgins. Much speculated due to Bengals financial constraints

Michael Pittman. Definite possibility as they could be headed for a blow-up

 

CeeDee Lamb. No way, this was the whole reason Jerry dumped Amari Cooper for practically nothing.

 

Marquise Brown. Would be a surprise since they gave up a first, but haven't extended him yet. If a FO blew up happened though, a new GM might look to move on and recoup that cost.

 

A level down then you have Gabriel Davis, Donavon Peoples Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jerry Juedy. Really still guys who are all about potential and really on the same or slightly lesser level than Mooney/Claypool.

 

Those are all the young guys at least. Old guys who could become trade or cut surprises: Mike Evans, De'Andre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd. Then your veteran 'never quite were' guys like Corey Davis, Robbie Anderson who could be cut based on their current salary.

 

This is the dream, but I can't imagine it would be cheap.

Yep, he'll be that AJ Brown territory. Not getting him for less than a first rounder.

[Tryptamine]

But anyways looking ahead to 2024 WR FA as those would be your "surprise guys"

 

Justin Jefferson. Obviously would be flabbergasted to see him moved. You can probably remove the Bears as a landing spot if he somehow was anyways.

 

Tee Higgins. Much speculated due to Bengals financial constraints

Michael Pittman. Definite possibility as they could be headed for a blow-up

 

CeeDee Lamb. No way, this was the whole reason Jerry dumped Amari Cooper for practically nothing.

 

Marquise Brown. Would be a surprise since they gave up a first, but haven't extended him yet. If a FO blew up happened though, a new GM might look to move on and recoup that cost.

 

A level down then you have Gabriel Davis, Donavon Peoples Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jerry Juedy. Really still guys who are all about potential and really on the same or slightly lesser level than Mooney/Claypool.

 

Those are all the young guys at least. Old guys who could become trade or cut surprises: Mike Evans, De'Andre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd. Then your veteran 'never quite were' guys like Corey Davis, Robbie Anderson who could be cut based on their current salary.

 

This is the dream, but I can't imagine it would be cheap.

Yep, he'll be that AJ Brown territory. Not getting him for less than a first rounder.

 

I'd love a scenario where they get both of the Seattle's 1sts and used the 2nd 1st to get Higgins.