Chicago Bears Offseason Thread (the tank must payoff)

[David]

[CubinNY]

A lot of the jockeying will get done after the combine and when the teams have identified internal needs and external FA options in addition to the draft guys.

 

I don't see any QB-needy teams near the top wanting to trade with the Bears for the #1 knowing that they are not going to draft a QB. The further down they go the less likely they get their #1 target.

 

It should be interesting to see what happens, but I'd guess that if they do trade down it will be in the 6-10 range. The good thing for the Bears is that due to need they can draft any top position player at virtually any position on both offense and defense and still come out ahead drafting in that range.

[David]

A lot of the jockeying will get done after the combine and when the teams have identified internal needs and external FA options in addition to the draft guys.

 

I don't see any QB-needy teams near the top wanting to trade with the Bears for the #1 knowing that they are not going to draft a QB. The further down they go the less likely they get their #1 target.

 

It should be interesting to see what happens, but I'd guess that if they do trade down it will be in the 6-10 range. The good thing for the Bears is that due to need they can draft any top position player at virtually any position on both offense and defense and still come out ahead drafting in that range.

 

They will want to jump the Texans and the Texans won't want teams to jump them.

[Bertz]

fwiw (not much!) - I can usually get the pff draft simulator to approve the following:

 

Bears give: 1/1

 

Indy gives: 1/4, 2/35, 3/79, 2024 1st, 2025 1st

 

It's gonna be really hard for me to move off of this or thereabouts being the ideal scenario.

[CubinNY]

A lot of the jockeying will get done after the combine and when the teams have identified internal needs and external FA options in addition to the draft guys.

 

I don't see any QB-needy teams near the top wanting to trade with the Bears for the #1 knowing that they are not going to draft a QB. The further down they go the less likely they get their #1 target.

 

It should be interesting to see what happens, but I'd guess that if they do trade down it will be in the 6-10 range. The good thing for the Bears is that due to need they can draft any top position player at virtually any position on both offense and defense and still come out ahead drafting in that range.

 

They will want to jump the Texans and the Texans won't want teams to jump them.

The teams will absolutely have to want a specific one. Between Young, Levis, Richardson, and Stroud I don't see a lot of separation. This isn't a Peyton Manning draft. I wish it was.

[UMFan83]

A lot of the jockeying will get done after the combine and when the teams have identified internal needs and external FA options in addition to the draft guys.

 

I don't see any QB-needy teams near the top wanting to trade with the Bears for the #1 knowing that they are not going to draft a QB. The further down they go the less likely they get their #1 target.

 

It should be interesting to see what happens, but I'd guess that if they do trade down it will be in the 6-10 range. The good thing for the Bears is that due to need they can draft any top position player at virtually any position on both offense and defense and still come out ahead drafting in that range.

 

They will want to jump the Texans and the Texans won't want teams to jump them.

The teams will absolutely have to want a specific one. Between Young, Levis, Richardson, and Stroud I don't see a lot of separation. This isn't a Peyton Manning draft. I wish it was.

 

It’s funny I see this take but I also see the take that Bryce Young is that generational talent that teams want badly. I agree the drop off from Young to Stroud/Levis is sizable to where if they aren’t getting Young they’d be content with waiting it out. I could be wrong but that’s what I’ve seen.

[WrigleyField 22]

No way Houston trades up from 2 to 1. I think they'd be perfectly fine taking Levis at 2, if Young goes 1. I actually think the smart move for Houston would be to take Anderson at 2, and then use 12 to move to move back up for a QB (Arizona at 3 would be a prime target or even Bears at 4 with double trade down). They could get the best player in the draft AND get their QB. They also have two 1sts next year from the Watson trade.

If they fall in love with a guy, anything is possible, IMO.

 

Multiple possibilities will exist for the Bears and the line to balance will be selling early so they can formulate more of their offseason plan around it, or letting that market brew.

 

Fwiw: some recent pre draft trades:

April 14 and April 20, 2016, Rams/Eagles trade up (draft day was April 28)

March 26, 2021 (!) 49ers trade up (draft was April 29)

 

I won't complain about a 49ers type trade where the team just blows the doors off to seal it early.

[David]

I just don't want them to fall in love with anybody, including Anderson or Carter.

 

Multiple spins of the (premium) wheel should be the paramount goal here. As many 1st/2nd round picks as they can possibly amass and BPA every time. There's no reason not to given the fact that they literally only have one position really locked in.

[Old Style]

[jersey cubs fan]

You’re saying there’s a chance dot gif

[David]

You’re saying there’s a chance dot gif

 

honestly expected even less strong wording than that just for posturing

[jersey cubs fan]

A) Blown away by the draft prospect

and perhaps just as important,

B) Blown away by the trade offer

 

Atlanta has a need and a pick and at least some in the front office with favorable views of Fields

[BigbadB]

Is there a current list of the top 12 draft picks or so for 2023. I haven't seen one posted anywhere.

[bukie]

Is there a current list of the top 12 draft picks or so for 2023. I haven't seen one posted anywhere.

You mean the players mocked to be drafted, or which teams own which picks for 2023?

[BigbadB]

Is there a current list of the top 12 draft picks or so for 2023. I haven't seen one posted anywhere.

You mean the players mocked to be drafted, or which teams own which picks for 2023?

 

I meant the order that teams pick.

[bukie]

Is there a current list of the top 12 draft picks or so for 2023. I haven't seen one posted anywhere.

You mean the players mocked to be drafted, or which teams own which picks for 2023?

 

I meant the order that teams pick.

The top 18 have been set (the rest are determined by playoff order in the 1st round):

 

1 Chicago Bears

2 Houston Texans

3 Arizona Cardinals

4 Indianapolis Colts

5 Denver Broncos (traded to Seattle Seahawks)

6 Los Angeles Rams (traded to Detroit Lions)

7 Las Vegas Raiders

8 Atlanta Falcons

9 Carolina Panthers

10 New Orleans Saints (traded to Philadelphia Eagles)

11 Tennessee Titans

12 Cleveland Browns (traded to Houston Texans)

13 New York Jets

14 New England Patriots

15 Green Bay Packers

16 Washington Commanders

17 Pittsburgh Steelers

18 Detroit Lions

[UMFan83]

Is there a current list of the top 12 draft picks or so for 2023. I haven't seen one posted anywhere.

You mean the players mocked to be drafted, or which teams own which picks for 2023?

 

I meant the order that teams pick.

 

Tankathon, click on the NFL tab

[David]

man, i get distracted by work for ten minutes and lose the window to post the let me google that for you link.

[minnesotacubsfan]

man, i get distracted by work for ten minutes and lose the window to post the let me google that for you link.

 

 

do the reasonable thing and quit your job

[WrigleyField 22]

man, i get distracted by work for ten minutes and lose the window to post the let me google that for you link.

 

 

do the reasonable thing and quit your job

Quiet quit

[raw]

I just don't want them to fall in love with anybody, including Anderson or Carter.

 

Multiple spins of the (premium) wheel should be the paramount goal here. As many 1st/2nd round picks as they can possibly amass and BPA every time. There's no reason not to given the fact that they literally only have one position really locked in.

 

Yeah, this is as no brainer as it gets. And everything Poles has said, "build thru the draft" and done (turned 5 picks into 11 last year) in his year on the job point to this being 100% a trade down. Hell, even sitting Fields on Sunday says to me, "hey we have a shot at #1 lets see if we can get it". Fields has been playing hurt most of the season. It's not a coincidence they sat him Week 18. No better way to build thru the draft than turn 1 pick into 4+ early picks.

[WrigleyField 22]

I don't think we should necessarily take a volume day 3 approach as necessarily indicative of a overall volume approach. Lot of teams have had success with volume mid-late pick approach to compensate being much more agressive early.

 

TBD.

 

(which isn't to say he isn't going to trade down once, but how far is a question, and I wouldn't necessarily expect multiple trade downs. He's gonna want a blue chipper at what hopefully will be his only time in the top 10)

[raw]

I don't think we should necessarily take a volume day 3 approach as necessarily indicative of a overall volume approach. Lot of teams have had success with volume mid-late pick approach to compensate being much more agressive early.

 

TBD.

 

(which isn't to say he isn't going to trade down once, but how far is a question, and I wouldn't necessarily expect multiple trade downs. He's gonna want a blue chipper at what hopefully will be his only time in the top 10)

 

I was just using last year's Day 3 trades as evidence that Poles knows they need multiple players. I don't expect him to add 9 guys on Day 3 again. But I think he will use the same approach now with upper level talent. Last year, he was throwing horsefeathers at the wind. This year, a trade down would be building the top of the roster, long term.

[WrigleyField 22]

I don't think we should necessarily take a volume day 3 approach as necessarily indicative of a overall volume approach. Lot of teams have had success with volume mid-late pick approach to compensate being much more agressive early.

 

TBD.

 

(which isn't to say he isn't going to trade down once, but how far is a question, and I wouldn't necessarily expect multiple trade downs. He's gonna want a blue chipper at what hopefully will be his only time in the top 10)

 

I was just using last year's Day 3 trades as evidence that Poles knows they need multiple players. I don't expect him to add 9 guys on Day 3 again. But I think he will use the same approach now with upper level talent. Last year, he was throwing horsefeathers at the wind. This year, a trade down would be building the top of the roster, long term.

But just using other teams actions as an example, early round pick treatment isn't necessarily congruent with late round treatment.

 

And frankly he needs less players now. The bottom of roster building has gone *okay*. He still needs to get a few stars. Unless he's trading for assets to in turn trade back for vet stars, I'm not super confident he'll go into crazy pick asset acquisition mode. There's still a pretty big difference from top 10 to next 10.

[Old Style]

Skip Bayless thinks the Bears should trade Fields. That should tell you how monumentally stupid it would be.