Bears Week 7 @ Patriots, Monday Night Football 10/24

[Cubfanintheknow]

He was last at this stat last year as well, but not "far and away" worst. He defintiely has seemed less accurate on the short throws this year (long throws have seemee fine).

 

Last years for reference.

 

How much of that is "I'm throwing out of bounds because I'm running for my life and don't want to get annihilated again."

[UMFan83]

He was last at this stat last year as well, but not "far and away" worst. He defintiely has seemed less accurate on the short throws this year (long throws have seemee fine).

 

Last years for reference.

 

How much of that is "I'm throwing out of bounds because I'm running for my life and don't want to get annihilated again."

 

Has he really had that many throwaways? I feel like most "running for my life" situations have ended in a scramble or a sack. I could be wrong though.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

This one's pretty savage even for my taste:

 

 

But my main takeaway is that I think the part about his head and feet being out of sync is a plausible explanation for his pocket problems.

[David]

Not for nothing but that's the dude who wrote that article that had us all convinced Mitch Trubisky was the most accurate QB ever in college and I remember him being ridiculed off football analysis Twitter for one reason or another (can't put my finger on it)

 

Not watching that but obv doesn't mean whatever he said was wrong lol

 

edit - looks like his current twitter account was created in august 2021. this is all i can find from before

 

 

 

 

anyway even guys who dedicate an absurd amount of time to it cant evaluate qbs bc it's all luck so ill just go with the guys who sell what i want to hear lol

 

also -

https://www.watchfantom.com/cian-fahey-has-the-most-preposterous-qb-rankings-ever/ - i wish i could see the tweets/screenshots that were posted on this

Edited October 18, 2022 by David

[minnesotacubsfan]

He was last at this stat last year as well, but not "far and away" worst. He defintiely has seemed less accurate on the short throws this year (long throws have seemee fine).

 

Last years for reference.

 

How much of that is "I'm throwing out of bounds because I'm running for my life and don't want to get annihilated again."

 

Has he really had that many throwaways? I feel like most "running for my life" situations have ended in a scramble or a sack. I could be wrong though.

 

walterfootball thought of him as an accurate passer pre-draft, so this whole thing is odd. Also, if he's being hit, throwing to a WR who doesn't get to the right spot, or doesn't have the throwing lanes he should could all effect his accuracy. My guess is its a combo of dealing with a pass rush right up the middle far too often and not having decent wr's while trying to work through a new offense what was meant for someone like Rodgers.

 

1) get him a new interior line

2) get him better wr's

3) get him more experience in this offense

 

4) give him a horsefeathering chance poles

[WrigleyField 22]

He was last at this stat last year as well, but not "far and away" worst. He defintiely has seemed less accurate on the short throws this year (long throws have seemee fine).

 

Last years for reference.

 

How much of that is "I'm throwing out of bounds because I'm running for my life and don't want to get annihilated again."

It isn't supposed to include throw aways and PFF has only credited him with 3 throw aways.

[WrigleyField 22]

 

How much of that is "I'm throwing out of bounds because I'm running for my life and don't want to get annihilated again."

 

Has he really had that many throwaways? I feel like most "running for my life" situations have ended in a scramble or a sack. I could be wrong though.

 

walterfootball thought of him as an accurate passer pre-draft, so this whole thing is odd. Also, if he's being hit, throwing to a WR who doesn't get to the right spot, or doesn't have the throwing lanes he should could all effect his accuracy. My guess is its a combo of dealing with a pass rush right up the middle far too often and not having decent wr's while trying to work through a new offense what was meant for someone like Rodgers.

 

1) get him a new interior line

2) get him better wr's

3) get him more experience in this offense

 

4) give him a horsefeathering chance poles

PFF charted him as the most accurate college passer in the PFF College era which I think is 2014 onward.

 

And no its not "cuz his WR were wide open" or at least the stat (CPOE) claims to adjust for that in case anyone (Kyle) wants to say that.

Edited October 19, 2022 by WrigleyField 22

[UMFan83]

 

anyway even guys who dedicate an absurd amount of time to it cant evaluate qbs bc it's all luck so ill just go with the guys who sell what i want to hear lol

 

Seriously...I'm sure a lot of the analysis is meaningful but just as much if not more is bunk.

[WrigleyField 22]

The throw away stat is also intersting.

 

Kirk Cousins has thrown away 15 (most in league) in 242 drop backs

 

Fields has thrown away 3 in 171 drop backs.

 

So by 3.5x rate Kirk is just bailing on pass throws compared to Fields. I'm not sure the perception would be if Fields was just throwing it away 2-3 times a game though.

 

But at least Kirk avoids sacks 11 sacks v 23.

 

Then you have guys like Matt Ryan with 21 sacks and 14 throw aways! Wtf.

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

Everyone loves Brown, but my issues with him are:

A) he's not that good

B) Poles mentioned wanting athletic linemen. He is perhaps the most unathletic lineman there has ever been (based on combine numbers).

C) he's looking to be among the highest paid LTs in the league. He turned down a deal that would put him in the top 5 LTs and top 3 RTs. He's not a LT to me and he's not one of the 3 best on the right side either. Not that players get paid based on that, but I don't want Brown if there are cheaper options that fit better (you named 2 much better ones).

 

Brown would still be better then every other option we have.

 

side note, if Bresee is there when the Bears draft do we take him? I think I would if we could get some OL help in FA, and there was a good amount of WR talent available in the 2nd this year. I dont know how the draft looks for WR's.

 

Not really debating how good Brown is. He's not really a fit, if you listen to Poles. And I'd rather pay Jenkins whatever he wants vs. what I already know what Brown wants because he already turned down a deal.

 

I am also not a big fan of Bresee, especially not as high as the Bears will be picking. He's not a top 5 talent, IMO. If picking 6-10, I'm taking WR/OL over him unless someone else is there I don't expect. 10-16, I think is prime WR territory so I'd almost certainly go WR over him as well, whether I have a WR rated higher or not. I worry about his quickness, he also tore his ACL so weary about that. And he's also not a stud run defender like Jordan Jenkins. I'd probably not take him until the 20s, even if I was dead set on DT. I don't see this top 10 prospect that most have him ranked as.

 

 

Do you think Bresee will lasts to the 2nd or 3rd? There are several DTs listed as having that draft grade. Is it a DT rich draft?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Seeing as how we need to build the foundation of the offense around the QB either way, I'm fine with giving Fields all of 2022 and 2023 to figure it out. Unless they see someone they just love and want to bet their careers on, there's really nothing to gain by Rosening him.

[raw]

 

Brown would still be better then every other option we have.

 

side note, if Bresee is there when the Bears draft do we take him? I think I would if we could get some OL help in FA, and there was a good amount of WR talent available in the 2nd this year. I dont know how the draft looks for WR's.

 

Not really debating how good Brown is. He's not really a fit, if you listen to Poles. And I'd rather pay Jenkins whatever he wants vs. what I already know what Brown wants because he already turned down a deal.

 

I am also not a big fan of Bresee, especially not as high as the Bears will be picking. He's not a top 5 talent, IMO. If picking 6-10, I'm taking WR/OL over him unless someone else is there I don't expect. 10-16, I think is prime WR territory so I'd almost certainly go WR over him as well, whether I have a WR rated higher or not. I worry about his quickness, he also tore his ACL so weary about that. And he's also not a stud run defender like Jordan Jenkins. I'd probably not take him until the 20s, even if I was dead set on DT. I don't see this top 10 prospect that most have him ranked as.

 

 

Do you think Bresee will lasts to the 2nd or 3rd? There are several DTs listed as having that draft grade. Is it a DT rich draft?

 

No, I think he actually goes top 10-15. He has the size, the talent (5-star recruit, #1 overall by some), he has leadership and has been thru a lot (little sister just died a few weeks ago). He will get drafted very high. But I don't think the production has matched the talent. And I wonder if he's not lacking a little bit athletically. It's a really good DT draft. You'll have Georgia with another top 5 pick (I'd strongly consider Jalen Carter if he's there whenever the Bears pick), Bresee probably top 15. Then a Vita Vea type later in the 1st, and overall about 10-11 guys that should go in the first 3 rounds.

[CubinNY]

This one's pretty savage even for my taste:

 

 

But my main takeaway is that I think the part about his head and feet being out of sync is a plausible explanation for his pocket problems.

All those things that guy talked about are coachable problems. If they've tried to correct them and he hasn't taken to the correction it's on him.

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

Not really debating how good Brown is. He's not really a fit, if you listen to Poles. And I'd rather pay Jenkins whatever he wants vs. what I already know what Brown wants because he already turned down a deal.

 

I am also not a big fan of Bresee, especially not as high as the Bears will be picking. He's not a top 5 talent, IMO. If picking 6-10, I'm taking WR/OL over him unless someone else is there I don't expect. 10-16, I think is prime WR territory so I'd almost certainly go WR over him as well, whether I have a WR rated higher or not. I worry about his quickness, he also tore his ACL so weary about that. And he's also not a stud run defender like Jordan Jenkins. I'd probably not take him until the 20s, even if I was dead set on DT. I don't see this top 10 prospect that most have him ranked as.

 

 

Do you think Bresee will lasts to the 2nd or 3rd? There are several DTs listed as having that draft grade. Is it a DT rich draft?

 

No, I think he actually goes top 10-15. He has the size, the talent (5-star recruit, #1 overall by some), he has leadership and has been thru a lot (little sister just died a few weeks ago). He will get drafted very high. But I don't think the production has matched the talent. And I wonder if he's not lacking a little bit athletically. It's a really good DT draft. You'll have Georgia with another top 5 pick (I'd strongly consider Jalen Carter if he's there whenever the Bears pick), Bresee probably top 15. Then a Vita Vea type later in the 1st, and overall about 10-11 guys that should go in the first 3 rounds.

Yea, that's what I am starting to learn reading the scout sites - lots of options at dt. My thought was if the bears get a high draft slot, trade down and get (2) 1st rd slots, you've got 3 picks to work out best player strategies for WR, DT, OL (if you include the 2nd rd pick, which would also be a high pick) And it's conceivable the bears could slate DL with their 2nd rd pick and expect to still get value there.

 

But if Bresee slipped into the later 1st, it would be hard for me to pass him up if we had (2) firsts

[WrigleyField 22]

So I am playing around with PFF depth data and the short answer is that the short game is absolutely destroying the Bears offense right now. Fields is dead last in accuracy and effectiveness in short and behind LOS throws. They are seemingly trying to compensate for this, but the relative split of passes is all out of whack compared to any normal O, and I imagine this all starts to create a feedback loop with other issues.

 

Best part of Fields accuracy is medium throws where he's top 10. Deep throws are meh, but still 20ish overall in accuracy.

[UMFan83]

So I am playing around with PFF depth data and the short answer is that the short game is absolutely destroying the Bears offense right now. Fields is dead last in accuracy and effectiveness in short and behind LOS throws. They are seemingly trying to compensate for this, but the relative split of passes is all out of whack compared to any normal O, and I imagine this all starts to create a feedback loop with other issues.

 

Best part of Fields accuracy is medium throws where he's top 10. Deep throws are meh, but still 20ish overall in accuracy.

 

Yeah I can’t find the tweet now but I saw yesterday that Fields has completed more 10+ yard passes then under 10 yard passes which is completely unheard of

[minnesotacubsfan]

So I am playing around with PFF depth data and the short answer is that the short game is absolutely destroying the Bears offense right now. Fields is dead last in accuracy and effectiveness in short and behind LOS throws. They are seemingly trying to compensate for this, but the relative split of passes is all out of whack compared to any normal O, and I imagine this all starts to create a feedback loop with other issues.

 

Best part of Fields accuracy is medium throws where he's top 10. Deep throws are meh, but still 20ish overall in accuracy.

 

Yeah I can’t find the tweet now but I saw yesterday that Fields has completed more 10+ yard passes then under 10 yard passes which is completely unheard of

 

weird as hell

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I still suspect that messing with his delivery to try to make it quicker has messed with his accuracy.

[WrigleyField 22]

So I am playing around with PFF depth data and the short answer is that the short game is absolutely destroying the Bears offense right now. Fields is dead last in accuracy and effectiveness in short and behind LOS throws. They are seemingly trying to compensate for this, but the relative split of passes is all out of whack compared to any normal O, and I imagine this all starts to create a feedback loop with other issues.

 

Best part of Fields accuracy is medium throws where he's top 10. Deep throws are meh, but still 20ish overall in accuracy.

 

Yeah I can’t find the tweet now but I saw yesterday that Fields has completed more 10+ yard passes then under 10 yard passes which is completely unheard of

I did see that, although I don't know if that's including YAC or targeted depth. Will look at the PFF data.

[WrigleyField 22]

I still suspect that messing with his delivery to try to make it quicker has messed with his accuracy.

He apparently had accuracy issues last year too (based on PFFs "inaccurate and uncatchable" metric). But Lamar is right there with him along with his rookie counterparts. So I don't think it's necessarily a deal killer.

 

This year he is "far and away" worst, but I can't find where they actually track that data on PFF, I'm guessing it's just an input into the grade and not a input I can pull.

 

I haven't dug into last year's numbers but presumably just a change in the split of targeted depth could move it from "bad" to "in your own territory" without changing relative accuracy. Or may be a little of both, but on the accuracy front, we're talking about maybe 2 better throws a game to bring up the average.

[WrigleyField 22]

Some hard data points on those splots:

 

Of 37 QBs with greater than 60 passes, he ranks:

 

37 on short throw accuracy rate

35 on behind LOS accuracy rate

37 and 35 on completion per percentage

37 and 37 on PFF pass score

37 and 9 on traditional passer rating (though I question that stats relevance for behind LOS throws)

 

The Bears have compensated for this, but it obviously has downsides. The average/median passer has 1.9x as many short/LOS throws as long/medium throws. And they have 1 deep pass for every 5 short/LOS throws. Fields has 1.3 short/LOS throws for every deep/medium throw and over 1 in 3 (35%) deep passes for every short/LOS.

 

Measured by accurate rate and percentage, his medium game is his strongest attribute. He's top 9 in accuracy there. He's merely top 20 on deep passing, which seems low, but isn't enough to kill him alone. The only downside you can say about the medium game is that it still takes him a long TTT to get those throws (3.16, ranked 33). The average player is getting those median throws out in 2. 8 seconds. So it begs the question: if the Bears OL can hold for 2.5 seconds at a high rate (according to ESPN), are they somehow failing at a clip greater than others in the next 0.3 seconds or is it mostly still just Fields holding the ball?

 

Well on short throws, the average passer needs just 2.3-2.4 and he's taking 2.71. There are some successful throwers averaging up to 2.5 seconds on short throws, but not really in the 2.6 to 2.7 range. The only remotely successful guys also taking that long in short throws right now are both NE QBs.

 

But inherently, long and medium throws are going to be less accurate, no matter how we slice data. That is going to really affect the teams ability to get into an offensive rhythm when the relative balance gets skewed.

 

They need to figure out how to give Fields easy quick reads in the short game. And he has to execute on them. Would be really interesting to study the mechanical differences medium verse short. Is it a footwork issue (say 2 step verse 3 step?) is he thinking too much on short throws?

 

If Fields/Bears can't solve it, he won't be solved.

 

This of course isn't considering total dropbacks and the high sack rate as well. And maybe there is still a sample size issue here and he just needs additional reps and the low rates of accuracy will improve with comfort and volume. But I don't think they can survive with the short/medium/long pass split they have going on right now.

[UMFan83]

I still suspect that messing with his delivery to try to make it quicker has messed with his accuracy.

He apparently had accuracy issues last year too (based on PFFs "inaccurate and uncatchable" metric). But Lamar is right there with him along with his rookie counterparts. So I don't think it's necessarily a deal killer.

 

This year he is "far and away" worst, but I can't find where they actually track that data on PFF, I'm guessing it's just an input into the grade and not a input I can pull.

 

I haven't dug into last year's numbers but presumably just a change in the split of targeted depth could move it from "bad" to "in your own territory" without changing relative accuracy. Or may be a little of both, but on the accuracy front, we're talking about maybe 2 better throws a game to bring up the average.

 

Re: Lamar, he seems to have a nice balance of designed runs and throws. I can only remember a handful of designed Fields runs at most this year, and I don't think any of them have gotten any large gains. Wonder why they are trying to design more runs for him? I guess they are trying to get him to unlock his passing potential but I also feel like it might be a little bit easier if there was more of a threat of him running on non-scrambles

[WrigleyField 22]

I still suspect that messing with his delivery to try to make it quicker has messed with his accuracy.

He apparently had accuracy issues last year too (based on PFFs "inaccurate and uncatchable" metric). But Lamar is right there with him along with his rookie counterparts. So I don't think it's necessarily a deal killer.

 

This year he is "far and away" worst, but I can't find where they actually track that data on PFF, I'm guessing it's just an input into the grade and not a input I can pull.

 

I haven't dug into last year's numbers but presumably just a change in the split of targeted depth could move it from "bad" to "in your own territory" without changing relative accuracy. Or may be a little of both, but on the accuracy front, we're talking about maybe 2 better throws a game to bring up the average.

 

Re: Lamar, he seems to have a nice balance of designed runs and throws. I can only remember a handful of designed Fields runs at most this year, and I don't think any of them have gotten any large gains. Wonder why they are trying to design more runs for him? I guess they are trying to get him to unlock his passing potential but I also feel like it might be a little bit easier if there was more of a threat of him running on non-scrambles

I've been fairly anti designed-runs for Fields for a variety of reasons, but even I'll say they could do a couple a game at this stage. Don't see him becoming Lamar or 2021 Hurts though.

 

One area would have been in the red zone. I was critical on the QB power when they were on the half foot line against the Pack, but in that 1-3 yard range out, it should be a good play and I don't think they went to it again on Thursday.

 

Wanna plug into the PA and true pass set data and see how much they're using that. I saw a stat yesterday that the top 10 PA teams were also top 10 passing teams, but I'm not certain if that was rate or cumulative based. But presumably they're not going PA at a top 10 rate at this stage, and they don't have much to loose by beating that horse dead right now.

[WrigleyField 22]

Nevermind on the PA stat. The stat was that the top 10 PA teams were all .500 or better. So kinda useless.

 

Fields has 12th highest rate of PA.

 

TTT on play action? 3.7, ranked 37. Maybe the Bears PA concepts are slower developing, but uh yea, TTT holds consistent there again.

 

Ranked 37 on PFF grade for non PA throws. Ranked 28th for PA throw grade.

 

Something has to break the feedback loop where Fields is just "normal long TTT". Until then, I don't know...

 

Last year for reference he was 2.92 and 3.53 on TTT for Non PA and PA. 3.3 and 3.7 this year. And he was basically equally graded on both types of throws. On every metric, whether depth or scheme he's like 10% slower. Don't know if TTT is supposed to be stable or over what sample size it stabilizes, but it's such a hurdle right now for Fields.

 

#notgreatbob

[mul21]

Some hard data points on those splots:

 

Of 37 QBs with greater than 60 passes, he ranks:

 

37 on short throw accuracy rate

35 on behind LOS accuracy rate

37 and 35 on completion per percentage

37 and 37 on PFF pass score

37 and 9 on traditional passer rating (though I question that stats relevance for behind LOS throws)

 

The Bears have compensated for this, but it obviously has downsides. The average/median passer has 1.9x as many short/LOS throws as long/medium throws. And they have 1 deep pass for every 5 short/LOS throws. Fields has 1.3 short/LOS throws for every deep/medium throw and over 1 in 3 (35%) deep passes for every short/LOS.

 

Measured by accurate rate and percentage, his medium game is his strongest attribute. He's top 9 in accuracy there. He's merely top 20 on deep passing, which seems low, but isn't enough to kill him alone. The only downside you can say about the medium game is that it still takes him a long TTT to get those throws (3.16, ranked 33). The average player is getting those median throws out in 2. 8 seconds. So it begs the question: if the Bears OL can hold for 2.5 seconds at a high rate (according to ESPN), are they somehow failing at a clip greater than others in the next 0.3 seconds or is it mostly still just Fields holding the ball?

 

Well on short throws, the average passer needs just 2.3-2.4 and he's taking 2.71. There are some successful throwers averaging up to 2.5 seconds on short throws, but not really in the 2.6 to 2.7 range. The only remotely successful guys also taking that long in short throws right now are both NE QBs.

 

But inherently, long and medium throws are going to be less accurate, no matter how we slice data. That is going to really affect the teams ability to get into an offensive rhythm when the relative balance gets skewed.

 

They need to figure out how to give Fields easy quick reads in the short game. And he has to execute on them. Would be really interesting to study the mechanical differences medium verse short. Is it a footwork issue (say 2 step verse 3 step?) is he thinking too much on short throws?

 

If Fields/Bears can't solve it, he won't be solved.

 

This of course isn't considering total dropbacks and the high sack rate as well. And maybe there is still a sample size issue here and he just needs additional reps and the low rates of accuracy will improve with comfort and volume. But I don't think they can survive with the short/medium/long pass split they have going on right now.

 

I have a feeling this may be related to where the pressure is coming from. Comparatively, so much of his is coming from straight up the middle vs from the outside against other teams that I'd bet it has an impact on that number. Getting Mustipher the hell out of there as to be a top priority.