Bears Week 7 @ Patriots, Monday Night Football 10/24

[WrigleyField 22]

Some hard data points on those splots:

 

Of 37 QBs with greater than 60 passes, he ranks:

 

37 on short throw accuracy rate

35 on behind LOS accuracy rate

37 and 35 on completion per percentage

37 and 37 on PFF pass score

37 and 9 on traditional passer rating (though I question that stats relevance for behind LOS throws)

 

The Bears have compensated for this, but it obviously has downsides. The average/median passer has 1.9x as many short/LOS throws as long/medium throws. And they have 1 deep pass for every 5 short/LOS throws. Fields has 1.3 short/LOS throws for every deep/medium throw and over 1 in 3 (35%) deep passes for every short/LOS.

 

Measured by accurate rate and percentage, his medium game is his strongest attribute. He's top 9 in accuracy there. He's merely top 20 on deep passing, which seems low, but isn't enough to kill him alone. The only downside you can say about the medium game is that it still takes him a long TTT to get those throws (3.16, ranked 33). The average player is getting those median throws out in 2. 8 seconds. So it begs the question: if the Bears OL can hold for 2.5 seconds at a high rate (according to ESPN), are they somehow failing at a clip greater than others in the next 0.3 seconds or is it mostly still just Fields holding the ball?

 

Well on short throws, the average passer needs just 2.3-2.4 and he's taking 2.71. There are some successful throwers averaging up to 2.5 seconds on short throws, but not really in the 2.6 to 2.7 range. The only remotely successful guys also taking that long in short throws right now are both NE QBs.

 

But inherently, long and medium throws are going to be less accurate, no matter how we slice data. That is going to really affect the teams ability to get into an offensive rhythm when the relative balance gets skewed.

 

They need to figure out how to give Fields easy quick reads in the short game. And he has to execute on them. Would be really interesting to study the mechanical differences medium verse short. Is it a footwork issue (say 2 step verse 3 step?) is he thinking too much on short throws?

 

If Fields/Bears can't solve it, he won't be solved.

 

This of course isn't considering total dropbacks and the high sack rate as well. And maybe there is still a sample size issue here and he just needs additional reps and the low rates of accuracy will improve with comfort and volume. But I don't think they can survive with the short/medium/long pass split they have going on right now.

 

I have a feeling this may be related to where the pressure is coming from. Comparatively, so much of his is coming from straight up the middle vs from the outside against other teams that I'd bet it has an impact on that number. Getting Mustipher the hell out of there as to be a top priority.

Yea, that's definitely a possible area that could cause the straight numbers to lie.

 

The other big question is just how many blockers it takes. As an extreme method, you can't call a 8 man protection with pressure up the middle at 2.55 seconds a win while calling a 5 man pass pro with a 2.45 second pressure on the frontside edge as a loss.

 

Obviously I don't think the numbers are going to be broadly that extreme, but at this point any small margins you'd hope can create some compounding benefit if they can clean it up. 2 or 3 stinker plays to wins a game would probably alter the raw numbers dramatically. Easier said then done, clearly.

[minnesotacubsfan]

he's being pressured on what, 46% of pass plays? One could assume that that would effect the short throws more, meaning he isnt even going to attempt a long pass with pressure, and how many of those shorter throws are under duress?

 

Its too difficult to understand if its Fields, or the line, or the wr's, or everyone when everyone is scoring so poorly. what a mess poles

[BigSlick]

The observation that the short passing game basically doesn't exist is my impression as well. The fact that the run game has also been pretty effective probably factors in - why even attempt 3-5 yard slants and such if you feel like you can get 4 yards on the regular?

 

My anecdotal impression is that Fields is both inaccurate on these types of passes and the receivers are just complete crap. Short passing is where timing, position, accuracy are all paramount. There isn't chemistry between them, they aren't adjusting well to his ball (which is often all over the place) and they usually aren't getting up field or breaking tackles, which is necessary for that kind of offense (which is also.....just how offense is generated in the modern NFL).

 

Basically we have a 1970s offense - no short passing game, run on 1st and 2nd down, and Fields attempts a 10+ yard pass on 3rd down. And he's shockingly good in those situations, given the circumstances!

[minnesotacubsfan]

The observation that the short passing game basically doesn't exist is my impression as well. The fact that the run game has also been pretty effective probably factors in - why even attempt 3-5 yard slants and such if you feel like you can get 4 yards on the regular?

 

My anecdotal impression is that Fields is both inaccurate on these types of passes and the receivers are just complete crap. Short passing is where timing, position, accuracy are all paramount. There isn't chemistry between them, they aren't adjusting well to his ball (which is often all over the place) and they usually aren't getting up field or breaking tackles, which is necessary for that kind of offense (which is also.....just how offense is generated in the modern NFL).

 

Basically we have a 1970s offense - no short passing game, run on 1st and 2nd down, and Fields attempts a 10+ yard pass on 3rd down. And he's shockingly good in those situations, given the circumstances!

When a D has 8+ men up to defend the run, they have 8+ men to defend short throws too.

 

I say throw medium/long on downs 1,2 and run on 3rd if you have to

[WrigleyField 22]

The observation that the short passing game basically doesn't exist is my impression as well. The fact that the run game has also been pretty effective probably factors in - why even attempt 3-5 yard slants and such if you feel like you can get 4 yards on the regular?

 

My anecdotal impression is that Fields is both inaccurate on these types of passes and the receivers are just complete crap. Short passing is where timing, position, accuracy are all paramount. There isn't chemistry between them, they aren't adjusting well to his ball (which is often all over the place) and they usually aren't getting up field or breaking tackles, which is necessary for that kind of offense (which is also.....just how offense is generated in the modern NFL).

 

Basically we have a 1970s offense - no short passing game, run on 1st and 2nd down, and Fields attempts a 10+ yard pass on 3rd down. And he's shockingly good in those situations, given the circumstances!

I guess the short stuff depends a little. A slant really isn't much of a spot throw. There's maybe been a few where it looked like miscommunication on an option route, but there's definitely been a fair share of ones that just flat out look like misses. Everyone misses some throws, but PFF thinks he's doing so at a higher rate on the short stuff especially.

 

Definitely right about the possibility that they're not replacing the short game with a deep game, but replacing it with runs. He's 15th on total deep passes even though he's 3rd on his rate of deep passes/attempts. If you replaced ~35 rushes with short pass drop backs and they actually could convert a league average rate of drop backs into pass attempts, then his deep ball rate wouldn't be so out of skew to his short throw rate.

[David]

 

haven't gotten myself to watch mostly due to having been disgusted by so many things about the game (and, well, I'm lazy), but not sure if this one was posted or not

[UMFan83]

Could be complete BS but

 

[UMFan83]

Always cracks me up when Belichick does this with bad teams. Love the fact that he brought up how dangerous Velus Jones is in the return game 4 different times.

 

[raw]

Always cracks me up when Belichick does this with bad teams. Love the fact that he brought up how dangerous Velus Jones is in the return game 4 different times.

 

 

The more he talks about how good a team is, the worst they actually are. This might be a record long for Belichick.

[WrigleyField 22]

Since he's a week 7 opponent and the Bears fans are already in offseason mode;

 

Jakobi Meyers as Bears WR target for 2023:

 

 

 

And for an actual good image of the graphic:

He's destroying both man and zone coverage and our best receiver really only beats man coverage (kind of)

[raw]

Since he's a week 7 opponent and the Bears fans are already in offseason mode;

 

Jakobi Meyers as Bears WR target for 2023:

 

 

 

And for an actual good image of the graphic:

He's destroying both man and zone coverage and our best receiver really only beats man coverage (kind of)

 

Good player. Moves the needle for sure at WR, but probably on a "more than healthy Pringle" level than on a Tyreke Hill, Stefon Diggs or AJ Brown level of players who have helped QBs make huge jumps in 1 offseason. Definitely have to pair with a very high pick at WR.

[minnesotacubsfan]

It's been speculated, Bears shopping Quinn?

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/bears/2022/10/20/chicago-bears-shopping-robert-quinn-ahead-trade-deadline/10553263002/

[raw]

It's been speculated, Bears shopping Quinn?

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/bears/2022/10/20/chicago-bears-shopping-robert-quinn-ahead-trade-deadline/10553263002/

 

100% have to trade him. I won't really fault Poles for not trading him before the season. If he wasn't getting a good enough package for him, it didn't make sense to take a competent player off the team for less than ideal draft capital in return. It sucks that he has sleepwalked thru 6 games so far, but he also slept thru 2020 and came back to provide a ton of value last year. That alone makes him viable to a contender. They know he still has that potential to have a huge stretch for a contender down the stretch.

 

But at this point, the only options at this point are:

1) Quinn stays the season, continues to do nothing, gets cut in March and goes to another team for nothing but cap relief.

2) Quinn stays the season, somehow finds motivation in a lost rebuilding season and builds up trade value in March

 

You can't gamble on 2. And even if 2 does happen, you can't assume a team would take him with an even higher cap hit next year and a year older.

 

Trade him now. Get something for him now. Anything is better than nothing in March. Plus, a 2023 picks gets them back to a full allotment of 7 picks and potential to move around more with one of these rumored WRs on the market. Like if you can get a 5th for Quinn, I'd certainly trade up to a 3rd for a guy like Claypool or Jeudy.

[WrigleyField 22]

 

Good player. Moves the needle for sure at WR, but probably on a "more than healthy Pringle" level than on a Tyreke Hill, Stefon Diggs or AJ Brown level of players who have helped QBs make huge jumps in 1 offseason. Definitely have to pair with a very high pick at WR.

Healthy Pringle was getting like 12 snaps a game

 

But I guess part of the problem with both guys is they don't take many snaps out wide. If you're not running a lot of 11 personnel, neither is a great fit with Mooney if they can't play the X.

 

But fix the line and you can run more 11 personnel.

[minnesotacubsfan]

It's been speculated, Bears shopping Quinn?

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/bears/2022/10/20/chicago-bears-shopping-robert-quinn-ahead-trade-deadline/10553263002/

 

100% have to trade him. I won't really fault Poles for not trading him before the season. If he wasn't getting a good enough package for him, it didn't make sense to take a competent player off the team for less than ideal draft capital in return. It sucks that he has sleepwalked thru 6 games so far, but he also slept thru 2020 and came back to provide a ton of value last year. That alone makes him viable to a contender. They know he still has that potential to have a huge stretch for a contender down the stretch.

 

But at this point, the only options at this point are:

1) Quinn stays the season, continues to do nothing, gets cut in March and goes to another team for nothing but cap relief.

2) Quinn stays the season, somehow finds motivation in a lost rebuilding season and builds up trade value in March

 

You can't gamble on 2. And even if 2 does happen, you can't assume a team would take him with an even higher cap hit next year and a year older.

 

Trade him now. Get something for him now. Anything is better than nothing in March. Plus, a 2023 picks gets them back to a full allotment of 7 picks and potential to move around more with one of these rumored WRs on the market. Like if you can get a 5th for Quinn, I'd certainly trade up to a 3rd for a guy like Claypool or Jeudy.

 

yea, I'm in no way married to keeping Quinn, I'd like to see more of the younger guys. I'd like to think hes worth more then a 5th however,,,,,,,alas

[WrigleyField 22]

Worth trading for a 7th if that's all you can get. Edited October 20, 2022 by WrigleyField 22

[UMFan83]

Elijah Moore apparently requested a trade from the Jets today. Doesn’t look like they are going to honor it but man would I love to add him to the Bears

[WrigleyField 22]

Bears legend Kevin White making a difference on Thursday Night Football.

[UMFan83]

Bears legend Kevin White making a difference on Thursday Night Football.

 

Holy crap that's really THE Kevin White? I saw when checking the score that a K White had a long catch and the thought briefly crossed my mind but figured it was too common of a name and our Kevin White was surely out of the league.

[raw]

Bears legend Kevin White making a difference on Thursday Night Football.

 

Still has never scored a TD in the league. Now 27 career catches.

[raw]

Elijah Moore apparently requested a trade from the Jets today. Doesn’t look like they are going to honor it but man would I love to add him to the Bears

 

Price is probably too high anyway. He was just a 2nd round pick last year, so probably would take at least a 3rd. And probably not worth a 3rd since he's not what I'd consider "proven".

[WrigleyField 22]

Elijah Moore apparently requested a trade from the Jets today. Doesn’t look like they are going to honor it but man would I love to add him to the Bears

 

Price is probably too high anyway. He was just a 2nd round pick last year, so probably would take at least a 3rd. And probably not worth a 3rd since he's not what I'd consider "proven".

Apparently part of why he wants out to is his usage too. He's only getting 25% of his snaps in slot. He'd most likely replace St Brown and Pettis snaps, mostly on the outside.

 

So don't think he'd d be very happy here.

[jumbo]

-The 49ers traded 3 first round picks and a 3rd to move up from 12th to 3rd and draft Trey Lance

-The Jets traded 1 first round pick and 3 second round picks to move up from 6th to 3rd and draft Sam Darnold (lol)

-The Eagles traded 2 first round picks, 1 second and 1 third to move up from 8th to 2nd and draft Carson Wentz (double lol)

 

Trading down could really put the Bears in a great position. Houston, Seattle and Detroit all have 2 firsts and could want a QB. Washington should actually draft one and will likely pick behind the Bears due to Thursdays win. NYG certainly could make a big move up, Jones is a FA and they look ready to compete everywhere else but WR (mainly because of the multiple 1sts they've had recently).

 

If Stroud or Young are on the board (probably have to pick top 3), then I think you'd see a package similar to the 49ers. They are elite prospects. If talking about QB3, then closer to the Eagles package (maybe minus that 2nd). Either way allows the Bears to get multiple high end talents over the next 1-2 drafts. I've never been more pro trading down than I am potentially in this draft.

 

If the Bears could pull the 49ers (3) firsts to trade down they would be insane not to do it. Even just an additional '24 first plus other pick would afford incredibe flexibility. Look at how the Eagles kept trading for an additional first "next year" with Hurts under evaluation. It makes tons of sense.

[Tim]

I know Monty isn't CMC, but damn. Let's see what we can get.

[UMFan83]