2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[muntjack]

I did notice a career-low launch angle

 

 

2015 - 9.7

2016 - 10.3

2017 - 11.1

2018 - 12.3

2019 - 10.9

2020 - 10.9

2021 - 10.4

2022 - 8.0

[Bertz]

Levine actually seems pretty connected at this point, so definitely not ignoring this, but I will say I expect the Cubs to be connected to essentially everybody. Everyone knows they've got money to burn, and they could plausibly fit anyone but a corner OF only player on the roster (hell even Happ getting dealt and opening up one of those spots isn't insane).

[muntjack]

2023 Chicago Cubs -WS favorite version-

 

Sign Correa

 

Trade simulator approved:

 

Justin Steele + Kevin Alcantara + Adrian Sampson for Shohei Ohtani

 

Brennen Davis for Rafael Devers

 

Keegan Thompson + Nelson Velazquez + Chase Strumpf for Jonah Heim and Jose Leclerc

 

Though we give up some real talent here, we're adding two superstars and keeping the farm healthy as only 2 of the top 30 are headed out.

 

Hoerner 2B

Correa SS

Ohtani DH

Devers 3B

Happ LF

Suzuki RF

Mervis 1B

Morel CF

Heim C

 

Ohtani

Stroman

Wesneski

Hendricks

Assad

Alzolay

Kilian

Wicks

 

You hope one of the bottom three forces their way into the #3 or #4 role at some point.

 

The SP depth can help in the pen along with Leclerc/Hughes/Leiter/Wick/Estrada/Rucker/Uelmen

 

For '24 you attempt to extend Shohei, let Devers go, slide Morel to 3rd and make way for PCA.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Are there indicators that Texas is going to rebuild next year? I don't have a good handle on them so I assumed that with the Gray, Semien, Seager additions they were gonna make an effort at being more competitive next year. Not sure what the new post-Daniels outlook is though.

[Cubswin11]

My ideal, relatively realistic offseason is;

 

- Sign Correa (let’s call it ~$35 AAV)

 

- Sign Abreu (2/16-25 or so with maybe some option/buyout stuff)

 

- Sign Bellinger for a 1 year high AAV deal (assuming he’s NT’d) if not him find some sort of other LHH CF for cheap until Davis is up.

 

- Sign/acquire a LHH catcher to compliment Gomes (assuming Willy is gone/use the money he takes for other stuff). Narvaez makes sense.

 

- Explore extensions for Nico and Happ, I really don’t know what is a good/fair deal for either.

 

- Acquire/re-sign 2 of of Marquez, Lopez, Smyly, Syndergaard, Manaea

 

- Sign Carlos Estevez and some other RP, there’s plenty of options.

 

- Trade Madrigal and include a Thompson or Sampson if you can get something useful

 

Would negate a few of these moves if Ohtani is truly available and go all in for whatever it takes for him. But think he’s ultimately kept/we don’t pony up.

Edited October 15, 2022 by Cubswin11

[Tim]

I'm re-sold on Correa after the video that was posted all over the place.

[muntjack]

Are there indicators that Texas is going to rebuild next year? I don't have a good handle on them so I assumed that with the Gray, Semien, Seager additions they were gonna make an effort at being more competitive next year. Not sure what the new post-Daniels outlook is though.

 

Don't think they're rebuilding, but they have Sam Huff, a legit C with 70 power ready to take most of those PAs, and they desperately need OF help and SP, so it would be one of those deal-from-your-strengths-to-address-your-weakness type trades.

[CubinNY]

I know I shouldn’t count on Davis/Mervis but plugging them in the line up sure does save a ton of money to spend on SS.

 

If they can get Abreu/Bellenger on short term big dollar contracts and a really good SP or two through trades or free agency, that’s a 90 win team if Davis and Mervis reach 70-80 percentile projection.

 

I’m not as sold as most on the young pitchers. I’m also a bit apprehensive about extending Happ.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Are there indicators that Texas is going to rebuild next year? I don't have a good handle on them so I assumed that with the Gray, Semien, Seager additions they were gonna make an effort at being more competitive next year. Not sure what the new post-Daniels outlook is though.

 

Don't think they're rebuilding, but they have Sam Huff, a legit C with 70 power ready to take most of those PAs, and they desperately need OF help and SP, so it would be one of those deal-from-your-strengths-to-address-your-weakness type trades.

 

Ah, I spot checked their roster and the top of their prospect list but didn't make it to Huff.

[Gilby]

With the Abreu rumor and my doubts of Jed/Carter handing out a massive single contract, an off-season featuring Nimmo is something I've started to wonder about. I know the minor league system is heavy on outfielders but I'm still not sure how many are viewed as potential centerfielders, aside from PCA. I continue to find it interesting how often Brennen *doesn't* play CF in the minors, Canario could be a prime trade candidate (and is also a tweener), and PCA hasn't played above A ball. Also, if anyone forces the issue, Happ is a FA after next season and/or trades happen. I wonder if an off-season like this is in the works:

 

Abreu 2/30

Nimmo 5/120

Senga 4/72

Smyly 2/15

Narvaez 2/10

Something like Canario to the Pads for Eguy Rosario for infield depth

2-3 bullpen signings

 

Position players:

C- Narvaez/Gomes

1B/DH - Abreu

1B/DH - Mervis

2B - Madrigal/Morel

SS - Nico

3B - Wisdom/Morel

LF - Happ

CF - Nimmo

RF - Suzuki

 

Rosario in AAA

 

Rotation:

Stroman

Steele

Senga

Smyly

Hendricks

 

Wesneski

Sampson

 

Alzolay and Thompson as relief aces

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't think Nimmo is getting 5/120 with his track record(particularly health) plus the QO. The latter is why I struggle to see him being a plan B/'less expensive' target for this front office.

[Cubswin11]

Yeah I’m out on Nimmo for a lot of reasons (health, QO, age, defensive metrics don’t love him all the time), especially if a 9 figure deal is what it takes.

[Tryptamine]

I am going to be very annoyed if a 36 year old Abreu is blocking Mervis next year.

[Tim]

I am going to be very annoyed if a 36 year old Abreu is blocking Mervis next year.

DH & 1B

[Cubswin11]

I am going to be very annoyed if a 36 year old Abreu is blocking Mervis next year.

There’s plenty of AB’s between 1B/DH for Abreu and Mervis to coexist. There’s also the likelihood/probability Mervis isn’t all that good (I want to give him a chance as well) that there needs to be some sort of 1B/DH insurance if he just sucks and Abreu seems like a solid fit.

[Tim]

I am going to be very annoyed if a 36 year old Abreu is blocking Mervis next year.

There’s plenty of AB’s between 1B/DH for Abreu and Mervis to coexist. There’s also the likelihood/probability Mervis isn’t all that good (I want to give him a chance as well) that there needs to be some sort of 1B/DH insurance if he just sucks and Abreu seems like a solid fit.

Mervis is Freddie horsefeathering Freeman until he shows me otherwise.

[JeffH]

Mervis is Freddie horsefeathering Freeman until he shows me otherwise.

 

Or Jim Thome.

[Tryptamine]

I am going to be very annoyed if a 36 year old Abreu is blocking Mervis next year.

DH & 1B

 

I just wonder if Abreu is going to be wiling to sign with a team where he's going to be the DH 80+% of the time if Mervis is actually good. He played 128 games at 1B last year so, I doubt he's going to be ok with that.

[Tim]

I am going to be very annoyed if a 36 year old Abreu is blocking Mervis next year.

DH & 1B

 

I just wonder if Abreu is going to be wiling to sign with a team where he's going to be the DH 80+% of the time if Mervis is actually good. He played 128 games at 1B last year so, I doubt he's going to be ok with that.

Or it may be a reason for him to leave the white sox if he'd prefer not to.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I am going to be very annoyed if a 36 year old Abreu is blocking Mervis next year.

DH & 1B

 

I just wonder if Abreu is going to be wiling to sign with a team where he's going to be the DH 80+% of the time if Mervis is actually good. He played 128 games at 1B last year so, I doubt he's going to be ok with that.

 

So play him at first base? Abreu is a good defender and Mervis doesn't have an excellent reputation that would be a big source of value for him. Sure you'd prefer he get more reps if he's to be a long term fixture, but if Abreu is the preferred upgrade, you don't move on to Plan B just because it means Mervis only plays 40-50 games defensively instead of 120-130.

[Bertz]

Levine doubled down after his radio hit

 

 

This is really interesting, because I I expect Abreu to get fairly significant money. Something like 2/$36M? Add in what's looking like an inevitable Hoerner extension and that's a big chunk of change committed before even talking about a SS or pitching help. If we take this Abreu pursuit as gospel, to me it says one of a few things:

 

A) Jed's going to pass on the big name shortstops. We talked about this up thread but given where we expect payroll, if you're allocating $35M to a shortstop you have to pinch some pennies elsewhere to stay under the LT. $18M for a 1B would only exacerbate that, and likely mean you have to pinch pennies everywhere else. Given Jed's general attitude towards depth and minimizing downside risk, it would seem fairly unlikely unless...

 

B) Jed's not planning to allocate much money to pitching. This doesn't necessarily mean the team is not going to add much pitching, it may instead be that the big piece is going to be a trade for a pre-FA arm like Pablo Lopez or Brady Singer as opposed to a big FA arm. For example you could do something like Lopez, Smyly, and a few relievers for a little north of $15M. Which if you're doing Abreu and a shortstop you might have to unless...

 

C) The luxury tax isn't the cap on 2023 payroll. There's a good deal of money rolling off payroll after '23, and the cream of the farm system primarily has a '24 ETA. Maybe the plan is to go over the tax in '23 and dip back under in '24? Or maybe some of the fine print in the new CBA has substantially reduced the recidivism penalties for living above the LT?

[Tryptamine]

Boss is out of the office so, let's kill some time.

 

I'm not going to trade Madrigal simply because the return isn't going to be much and I think he's a solid bet to be a 2 to 3fWAR. After July 1st a he put up a 95 wRC+ on a .308 babip while his season numbers were a 70 wRC+ and .286 babip.

 

Conforto 3/48

 

Cubs acquire Sean Murphy for Thompson, Alcantara and Hernandez(This is probably a prospect light)

 

I'm not convinced he's willing to be a full time DH, but if he is, then Abreu 3/54

 

Smyly 2/14

 

Senga 5/75

 

Correa 8/250

 

 

 

 

 

1B: Mervis

2B: Madrigal

SS: Hoerner

3B: Correa

RF: Suzuki

CF: Happ

LF: Conforto

C: Murphy

DH: Abreu

 

I actually quite like this. A lot more pop than the 2022 squad and significant defensive upgrades in Correa/Murphy.

 

SP: Stroman, Senga, Steele, Smyly, Hendricks

 

The staff isn't great but solid and with Killian/Wicks/Wesneski all likely to see innings in 2023 and Sampson a capable fill in, the depth is really good.

[CubinNY]

Levine doubled down after his radio hit

 

 

This is really interesting, because I I expect Abreu to get fairly significant money. Something like 2/$36M? Add in what's looking like an inevitable Hoerner extension and that's a big chunk of change committed before even talking about a SS or pitching help. If we take this Abreu pursuit as gospel, to me it says one of a few things:

 

A) Jed's going to pass on the big name shortstops. We talked about this up thread but given where we expect payroll, if you're allocating $35M to a shortstop you have to pinch some pennies elsewhere to stay under the LT. $18M for a 1B would only exacerbate that, and likely mean you have to pinch pennies everywhere else. Given Jed's general attitude towards depth and minimizing downside risk, it would seem fairly unlikely unless...

 

B) Jed's not planning to allocate much money to pitching. This doesn't necessarily mean the team is not going to add much pitching, it may instead be that the big piece is going to be a trade for a pre-FA arm like Pablo Lopez or Brady Singer as opposed to a big FA arm. For example you could do something like Lopez, Smyly, and a few relievers for a little north of $15M. Which if you're doing Abreu and a shortstop you might have to unless...

 

C) The luxury tax isn't the cap on 2023 payroll. There's a good deal of money rolling off payroll after '23, and the cream of the farm system primarily has a '24 ETA. Maybe the plan is to go over the tax in '23 and dip back under in '24? Or maybe some of the fine print in the new CBA has substantially reduced the recidivism penalties for living above the LT?

Very sound logic, however, I would like to say that whatever they do with Abreu should have no impact on signing a big SS. Abreu's contract is a short-term allocation of resources that should not affect the longer term. If they're thinking that signing him means they aren't going to be able to sign Correa, it would be very Cubs like. If it's either/or I hope they don't sign him, but I think they should take the salary hit for a few years.

 

I do think that they won't be targeting pitching through FA, but more likely through trades.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Levine doubled down after his radio hit

 

 

This is really interesting, because I I expect Abreu to get fairly significant money. Something like 2/$36M? Add in what's looking like an inevitable Hoerner extension and that's a big chunk of change committed before even talking about a SS or pitching help. If we take this Abreu pursuit as gospel, to me it says one of a few things:

 

A) Jed's going to pass on the big name shortstops. We talked about this up thread but given where we expect payroll, if you're allocating $35M to a shortstop you have to pinch some pennies elsewhere to stay under the LT. $18M for a 1B would only exacerbate that, and likely mean you have to pinch pennies everywhere else. Given Jed's general attitude towards depth and minimizing downside risk, it would seem fairly unlikely unless...

 

B) Jed's not planning to allocate much money to pitching. This doesn't necessarily mean the team is not going to add much pitching, it may instead be that the big piece is going to be a trade for a pre-FA arm like Pablo Lopez or Brady Singer as opposed to a big FA arm. For example you could do something like Lopez, Smyly, and a few relievers for a little north of $15M. Which if you're doing Abreu and a shortstop you might have to unless...

 

C) The luxury tax isn't the cap on 2023 payroll. There's a good deal of money rolling off payroll after '23, and the cream of the farm system primarily has a '24 ETA. Maybe the plan is to go over the tax in '23 and dip back under in '24? Or maybe some of the fine print in the new CBA has substantially reduced the recidivism penalties for living above the LT?

 

I think this is a good way of describing the options. I really want to think the answer is B, it means they aren't committing long years to a less reliable class of player, and it leans on their existing strength to be a competitive team since they don't have to not spend on pitching in following years. The thing that sticks in my mind about being an intentional strategy is how specific the news has been about Smyly. If you aren't investing much $$ in pitching, is giving Smyly 2/14 or similar really the way to spend minimal pitching funds? Maybe they just love their existing group so much and they think they can buy low on someone like Daniel Lynch or a very cheap FA that they aren't worried about adding a surefire playoff series starter. If they were particularly confident about Hendricks and/or Wesneski that could at least have some internal logic, but if you're only spending ~10 million on SP, that is probably not how I would do it.

 

EDIT: I guess the other thing that informs my thinking here is I'm skeptical they're going to spend the prospect capital to make a trade for a SP clearly better than Smyly, like Lopez. The ones I can see them making(like Marquez) are for guys with big enough salary numbers to not stay within the 'not investing $$ in SP' lines.

[pitchcs]

Boss is out of the office so, let's kill some time.

 

I'm not going to trade Madrigal simply because the return isn't going to be much and I think he's a solid bet to be a 2 to 3fWAR. After July 1st a he put up a 95 wRC+ on a .308 babip while his season numbers were a 70 wRC+ and .286 babip.

 

Conforto 3/48

 

Cubs acquire Sean Murphy for Thompson, Alcantara and Hernandez(This is probably a prospect light)

 

I'm not convinced he's willing to be a full time DH, but if he is, then Abreu 3/54

 

Smyly 2/14

 

Senga 5/75

 

Correa 8/250

 

 

 

 

 

1B: Mervis

2B: Madrigal

SS: Hoerner

3B: Correa

RF: Suzuki

CF: Happ

LF: Conforto

C: Murphy

DH: Abreu

 

I actually quite like this. A lot more pop than the 2022 squad and significant defensive upgrades in Correa/Murphy.

 

SP: Stroman, Senga, Steele, Smyly, Hendricks

 

The staff isn't great but solid and with Killian/Wicks/Wesneski all likely to see innings in 2023 and Sampson a capable fill in, the depth is really good.

 

Why would Abreu get more money than he did 3 years ago?