2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

[Bertz]

How do they get innings to all these guys?

 

A couple to full season ball(Horton, Birdsell) a couple to the complex league(Ferris, Mule), a couple of the senior signs might be relievers real quick(Hull), and a couple probably need pitch lab/dev list/rehab time(McGwire, Frisch).

 

Plus there's a decent chance that the slooooooowwww ramp up they did with everyone in the minors this year is the new normal, in which case even in the unlikely event you've got too many pitchers guys are probably piggy-backing through at least Memorial Day

[Irrelevant Dude]

How do they get innings to all these guys?

 

A couple to full season ball(Horton, Birdsell) a couple to the complex league(Ferris, Mule), a couple of the senior signs might be relievers real quick(Hull), and a couple probably need pitch lab/dev list/rehab time(McGwire, Frisch).

 

Plus there's a decent chance that the slooooooowwww ramp up they did with everyone in the minors this year is the new normal, in which case even in the unlikely event you've got too many pitchers guys are probably piggy-backing through at least Memorial Day

Yeah, I don't think getting pitchers innings will be a problem, partly because of how slow pitchers typically ramp up at the lower levels. There are plenty of innings to go around for the guys who will matter. It isn't like hitters who need more and consistent at bats.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA’s blurbs for 4th round and on:

 

96

Nazier Mule

Passaic County Tech HS, Wayne, N.J.

RHP/SS

VIDEO

Notes:

HT: 6-2 | Wt: 211 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Miami

Age At Draft: 17.7

BA Grade: 50/Extreme

Tools: Fastball: 65. Slider: 50. Changeup: 50. Control: 45.

 

Mule has been famous from an early age, standing out for his athleticism at shortstop, raw power and outstanding arm strength. As he enters his draft year, Mule has the talent to play both ways in college at Miami, but his professional future looks brighter on the mound. He has reached 100 mph, even more remarkable given that he will be 17 until October. This spring, Mule pitched more in the 92-96 mph range, then after an April start in which he threw more than 100 pitches, he felt soreness in his arm and hasn't pitched since, though he has still been hitting and playing first base at times. When Mule was pitching, multiple scouts noted he was often pitching backwards, throwing more breaking balls than fastballs. Over the summer, Mule's slider was often fringy to below-average, but some scouts who saw him this spring said he snapped off some better sliders and was showing more feel for his changeup. Some of them also thought that, while he wasn't throwing as hard as they had seen in the past, he was showing more pitchability than he had before when he was more of a thrower than a pitcher, though others noted times where he lost his control. Mule's youth, athleticism and raw arm strength will appeal to some teams, while others view him as a high-risk prep arm.

 

137

Brandon Birdsell

Texas Tech

RHP

Notes:

HT: 6-2 | Wt: 240 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Twins '21 (11)

Age At Draft: 22.3

BA Grade: 40/High

Tools: Fastball: 60. Slider: 55. Changeup: 45. Control: 50.

 

Birdsell has come a long way in his four years of college ball (one year at Texas A&M, one year at San Jacinto (Texas) JC and two years at Texas Tech). A mid-April rotator cuff injury derailed Birdsell’s 2021 season. He was still drafted by the Twins in the 11th round, but he opted to return to Texas Tech to improve his draft standing. He should do better this year after going 9-3, 2.75 with 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s completely reworked his delivery and filled out from 210 pounds as a freshman to 245 pounds now. Birdsell once was a flamethrower with no idea of where the ball was going. Birdsell’s delivery now is both simple and unorthodox. He simply breaks his hands and goes home as if he’s playing a game of catch, but with a slight stutter as he hangs over his plant leg, which messes with hitters’ timing. It’s paid off in improved control. Birdsell’s plus four-seam fastball sits at 95-96 mph and has touched 99. He carries that velocity through his starts. His above-average mid-80s slider has more depth than tilt, which allows it to be effective against lefties as well as righties. He throws a fringe-average 86-87 mph changeup almost exclusively to lefties. Birdsell has at least a solid path as a two-pitch reliever, but his control improvements give him a shot of going out in pro ball as a starter. His age (22) will likely hurt him on many teams’ boards.

 

200

Will Frisch

Oregon State

RHP

Notes:

HT: 6-0 | Wt: 229 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Twins '19 (30)

Age At Draft: 22

BA Grade: 40/Extreme

Tools: Fastball: 55. Slider: 50. Changeup: 60. Control: 50.

 

Frisch ranked No. 155 in the 2021 draft class a year ago as a draft-eligible sophomore and pitched in several roles for Oregon State to great success. Frisch was expected to move into the starting rotation full-time this spring for the Beavers, but a partially torn UCL and subsequent Tommy John surgery ended his 2022 season before it began—like many pitchers in this injury-ridden class. Frisch entered the year with second-to-fourth round potential, thanks to a solid three-pitch mix including a fastball, slider and changeup. In 2021 as a split starter/reliever, Frisch averaged 94 mph and ran the pitch up to 98, while his upper-80s changeup earned plus grades and generated a 40% whiff rate and his mid-80s slider checked in at average. With a solid or better three-pitch mix and control that took a big step forward from 2020 to 2021, Frisch looked the part of a solid starting pitching prospect with a filled-out 6-foot, 222-pound frame. His injury and lost 2022 season make him more of a question mark.

 

470

Connor Noland

Arkansas

RHP

Notes:

HT: 6-2 | Wt: 215 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 23

After not filling a significant role on the 2021 club, Noland stepped up to fill the massive void created when Arkansas’ expected ace Peyton Pallette blew out his elbow. Noland was rarely spectacular, but he was extremely reliable as Arkansas’ Friday starter. He went 8-6, 3.65 in 116 innings and 19 starts. Noland’s 89-91 mph fastball would be a below-average pitch in pro ball, but it does effectively set up his average, mid-80s slider and above-average, mid-80s curveball. He has above-average control. Noland is a fourth-year junior who could opt to return to Arkansas for another season if his late-round draft status doesn’t entice him.

 

482

Brody McCullough

Wingate

RHP

Notes:

HT: 6-4 | Wt: 205 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 22

McCullough made 18 appearances for Wingate during his 2019 freshman season and then transitioned to a starting role during the Covid-shortened 2020 season. In 2021 he split time as a starter and reliever but posted a 2.47 ERA while managing excellent strikeout and walk rates, and this spring as a full-time starter he continued to miss bats and prevent runs. The 6-foot-4, 205-pound righthander posted a 2.40 ERA over 11 starts and 63.2 innings, while striking out 110 batters (42.1 K%) and walking 24 (9.2 BB%). For his career at Wingate, McCullough has struck out 258 batters (32.3 K%), compared to just 72 walks (9.0 BB%). After a strong spring season, McCullough headed to the Cape Cod League, where he posted a 2.70 ERA over five starts and 20 innings for Hyannis, with 30 strikeouts (38.5 K%) and eight walks (10.3 BB%). McCullough throws a fastball in the lower 90s, a slider in the low-to-mid 80s and a mid-80s changeup. His college track record is impressive and his turn on the Cape late in the year before the draft could have teams even more excited.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I suspect Mule will be hitting btw. 17 on draft day with his power potential - bat prospect who can always fall back on pitching. I’m already imagining a 3B/CL of The Future

 

More velocity with the Birdsell pick, good stuff…Same program as Kilian

 

They see him as a pitcher

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

FG ranked the Cubs 3rd, 4th and 5th rounders:

 

Paciolla (93):

 

An ultra-loose rotational athlete with plus bat speed, Paciolla has at least average barrel accuracy despite how whippy his swing is. He has plus defensive hands and feet, and while his range probably isn't enough for shortstop, he projects as plus third base defender. Paciolla has less track record versus top-tier arms than others in the class, though SoCal varsity pitching is a meaningful test. There's a chance for big spring helium here.

 

Mule (92):

 

One of the most electric athletes in the entire draft, Mule is a two-way prospect with hit tool question marks partially generated by his swing's bizarre look. It's toned down a bit since his showcase summer, but his swing was extremely stiff and his head would kick back like a shotgun on contact. He is a capable defensive shortstop with a 70 arm, and his strapping frame is poised to grow into huge power, but Mule's hit tool is scary enough that I have him projected as a pitcher only. Elite arm speed generates upper-90s velo (he was more in the mid-90s late in his draft spring), but very little feel for location and an extremely inconsistent slider. A young-for-the-class developmental project with elite arm strength and body projection, pro dev has their work cut out for them if Mule is going to start. If he develops one plus secondary pitch, then he could easily be a late-inning reliever.

 

Birdsell (86):

 

Another Tech pitching prospect with huge arm strength and a nasty breaking ball, Birdsell's delivery is stiff and upright and he looks like a reliever on the surface. He hasn't walked an excessive number of hitters, though. Repertoire depth may still funnel him to the bullpen, but as ugly as his delivery is, Birdsell's glove-side fastball/slider control is pretty good, and both pitches are plus.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB Pipeline rankings on the 4th and 5th rounders:

 

Mike (94):

 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall 45

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 65 | Field: 50 | Overall: 40

 

All summer long, Mule, showed off power -- at the plate and on the mound -- at showcase events from Major League Baseball’s All-American Game to the Perfect Game All-American Classic. The New Jersey high school product seemed like a legitimate two-way threat, though he came out hot on the mound in front of a lot of decision-makers this spring, with the industry mostly talking about his pitching future.

 

Big and physical, the 6-foot-3 right-handed hitter has a ton of raw power at the plate and has, at times, gotten to it, posting some high exit velocities, with solid defensive actions at shortstop. But strides he made as a pitcher have put his position player skills on the back burner. He made waves over the summer by touching triple-digits with his fastball, but has shown better pitchability this spring with his fastball in the 93-96 mph range. The slider can flash plus and has been more consistent and he continues to show some feel for a changeup, even if he doesn’t use it much.

 

He has shown below-average command in the past when he was hitting 100 mph, more of a thrower than a pitcher, and while his control has been a bit up and down, he’s found the strike zone more reliably this spring. Committed to go to Miami, Mule may tempt a team to send him out as a position player and see if he can tap into that power, but teams are really preferring him as a pitcher at the moment.

 

Birdsell (101):

 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

 

Birdsell first put himself on scouting radars when he reached the low 90s as a Willis High (Texas) freshman in 2015, but he blew out his elbow as a sophomore and missed his junior season following Tommy John surgery. After turning down the Astros as a 39th-round pick in 2018, he pitched just 71 1/3 innings at three different colleges over the next three years: seven as a little-used reliever at Texas A&M, 29 before the pandemic ended his 2020 season at San Jacinto JC (Texas) and 35 1/3 last year before straining his rotator cuff in April. He avoided surgery, spurned the Twins as an 11th-rounder and won Big 12 Conference pitcher of the year honors this spring with the Red Raiders.

 

Birdsell's fastball sits at 94-96 mph and peaks at 99, though its velocity stands out more than its armside run and gets hit when he catches too much of the plate. He misses more bats with his slider, which features good depth in the mid-80s and more cutter action when he throws it in the upper 80s. He doesn't use his hard upper-80s changeup very often but it's an effective third offering with significant fade when it's on.

 

Though Birdsell doesn't have a smooth delivery, he repeats it easily and throws strikes. His stuff is worthy of the top three rounds, but his medical history concerns clubs and he has yet to prove he's durable enough to hold up in the rotation over a longer pro season. He has the upside of a No. 3 or 4 starter and could become a setup man if he winds up in the bullpen.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Prospects Live:

 

214

Nazier Mule

RHP Passaic County Tech Paterson, NJ

Elite level two-way athlete. Up to 101 off the mound from a short, low 3/4 arm slot. Immense arm speed. Flashes a gyro-slider and some feel for a changeup. Top of the class bat speed with significant raw power, though it's more of a batting practice approach than it is production in-game to this point. Hands work really well on the infield with plus arm strength, maybe more. Hyper-athletic abilities suggest he can stick at the position. Mule projects better on the mound for us, currently. Some similarities to Masyn Winn, a two-way draftee in 2020.

 

160

Brandon Birdsell

RHP Texas Tech Willis, TX

There's a lot to like about Birdsell, including one of the better fastballs in the entire class. Injuries have been a bugaboo. Birdsell now sits 93-98, touching 99 with serious ride. Cutter/Slider at 88, mixes in a curveball that's fringy in the low 80s. Needs to work on developing a distinct shape for the pitch. Changeup is a work in progress and not part of the arsenal currently. Birdsell was drafted in the 11th round in 2021 but decided against signing with the Twins. A shoulder injury slowed Birdsell at the end of the 2021 season. Should he stay healthy and log big innings in 2022, the sky's the limit.

 

426

Will Frisch

RHP Oregon State Stillwater, MN

Frisch comes packed into a big, strong frame with strong shoulders and some barrel chest. He's been up to 95 in Corvallis with a breaking ball that flashes plus from time to time. He'll be reasonably young in the 2022 class. The narrative, however, changed a bit this year with some arm trouble and injuries forcing him out of action. He was fairly dominant in his first crack at college innings in 2020 and 2021. His 2.38 ERA over 51 innings last season was pretty impressive. Scouts want to see more swing-and-miss from the opposition, as well as the limitation of free passes. If he takes the next step forward in both of those categories in 2022, Frisch is the type of college performer and ultra-competitor who could pitch his way up into the first few rounds of the draft, similar to Andrew Moore in 2015 for the Beavers.

 

251

Connor Noland

RHP Arkansas Greenwood, AR

Noland saw his game take another step in 2022, his fourth year on campus with the Razorbacks. While he was draft-eligible in 2021, Noland's stuff was less inspiring a year ago. Noland operates in the low-90s, touching 95 with some armside run and above average command. Ultimately, it's just an average fastball, maybe a tick below. His best weapon is an above average slider with good tilt and thrown with conviction. He works in a short, firm curveball that can melt into his slider when he loses the release point. Noland's changeup took a step forward in 2022 and now projects average. He's likely a back-end of a rotation type of arm unless a little more is unlocked in the tank. Noland will be 23 in September.

 

286

Brody McCullough

RHP Wingate Wingate, NC

McCullough is draft-eligible for the second time, but had a gangbuster year for Wingate in 2022 and parlayed that into more success on the cape this summer. He's a traditional 4-pitch guy with a fastball in the low-90s up to 94, coupled with a low release slot. It pops at the top of the zone. He's got a couple of fringy breaking balls that can flash average, as well as a changeup that is average more often than the latter. McCullough will check some metric models for teams and has the track record of performing to back it up.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The OP has been updated with the first 10 picks and all major publications’ rankings.

[WrigleyField 22]

Hooo look at Ferris:

 

Why does he have a bot Twitter name

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That's how many Jacksons were born in his birth year

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Passaic Tech coach Robert Nutile said that he had exchanged text messages with the Mulé family, and the early indications are that the 6-foot-3, 205-pound right-hander will go pro and announce his official decision by the weekend.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/passaic-tech-baseball-star-nazier-184933597.html

[CubinNY]

Passaic Tech coach Robert Nutile said that he had exchanged text messages with the Mulé family, and the early indications are that the 6-foot-3, 205-pound right-hander will go pro and announce his official decision by the weekend.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/passaic-tech-baseball-star-nazier-184933597.html

I'm assuming his name is pronounced mu-LAY?

[Bertz]

So after all of this, is this approximately what we're looking at for rotations throughout the system next year?

 

MLB - FA, Stroman, Steele, Thompson, Hendricks (Alzolay in the pen)

AAA - Kilian, Espinoza, Jensen, Clarke, Assad (R. Thompson in the pen)

AA - Wicks, Herz, Palencia, Franklin, TBD

A+ - Horton, Devers, Gallardo, Hodge, Schlaffer (Little in the pen?)

A - Gray, Ferris, Moreno, Birdsell, Noland/McCullough

 

That's pretty good! Honestly though seeing this I kind of hope Jed continues doubling down on pitching at the trade deadline. Fill that last spot at Tenn, and kick a couple of those AAA SPs to the bullpen where they're inevitably going to end up. Let's have a silly Guardians/Rays level of pitching depth to go along with the already in place silly outfield depth.

[Tim]

By my rough estimate off of the MLB.com draft rankings, there are still 79 of the top 250 prospects available. Anyone think we still have funds to overslot another couple of players?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

By my rough estimate off of the MLB.com draft rankings, there are still 79 of the top 250 prospects available. Anyone think we still have funds to overslot another couple of players?

 

Can’t imagine they have more than $250-$350k (the first $125k doesn’t count to the pool). You’re looking for preps who aren’t as interested in college as suspected - like

Dominic Hambley, Esequiel Pagán and Porter Hodge.

[Hrubes20]

Passaic Tech coach Robert Nutile said that he had exchanged text messages with the Mulé family, and the early indications are that the 6-foot-3, 205-pound right-hander will go pro and announce his official decision by the weekend.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/passaic-tech-baseball-star-nazier-184933597.html

I'm assuming his name is pronounced mu-LAY?

 

That's correct.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

So after all of this, is this approximately what we're looking at for rotations throughout the system next year?

 

MLB - FA, Stroman, Steele, Thompson, Hendricks (Alzolay in the pen)

AAA - Kilian, Espinoza, Jensen, Clarke, Assad (R. Thompson in the pen)

AA - Wicks, Herz, Palencia, Franklin, TBD

A+ - Horton, Devers, Gallardo, Hodge, Schlaffer (Little in the pen?)

A - Gray, Ferris, Moreno, Birdsell, Noland/McCullough

 

That's pretty good! Honestly though seeing this I kind of hope Jed continues doubling down on pitching at the trade deadline. Fill that last spot at Tenn, and kick a couple of those AAA SPs to the bullpen where they're inevitably going to end up. Let's have a silly Guardians/Rays level of pitching depth to go along with the already in place silly outfield depth.

 

I pretty much have the same breakdown for next season, though not sure Clarke gets to AAA to start the season. Surely they’ll have a few veteran arms at AAA they’ll cycle through in the bigs and not fear losing to DFA.

 

Derek Casey was ready for AA last year before injury. He should be back from TJS.

 

Hoping Yovanny Cruz gets stretched out next year, even if it’s a 2-3 inning role like Luke Little.

 

Maybe one of those live arms in the ACL (Michael Arias or Kenyi Pérez) is ready for MB next season.

[Tim]

I guess the assumption is that Brailyn is (one of):

 

- never going to be healthy

- going to be slotted to a relief role if he ever gets healthy again

- actually dead

[sneakypower]

hadn't noticed until now Keith Law had Horton ranked #93 lol

[JeffH]

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/passaic-tech-baseball-star-nazier-184933597.html

I'm assuming his name is pronounced mu-LAY?

 

That's correct.

 

It's actually myu as opposed to moo.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

hadn't noticed until now Keith Law had Horton ranked #93 lol

 

He didn’t update his draft board since May 5th, a full month before regionals.

[CubinNY]

hadn't noticed until now Keith Law had Horton ranked #93 lol

 

"If you think there’s a third weapon in there somewhere, he would be a second-rounder; if not, he’s in the big bucket of good college pitchers who project as relievers and fit in rounds 3-5."

 

The future closer at 7.

[Hrubes20]

I guess the assumption is that Brailyn is (one of):

 

- never going to be healthy

- going to be slotted to a relief role if he ever gets healthy again

- actually dead

 

At this point, it's best to forget that Marquez is a thing. Take the Angel Guzman approach, and if he ends up being a really good reliever for a few years, you count that a win.

[craig]

I almost think that Law including Horton in the top-100 and as a 3rd rounder, before he flashed the killer slider, and before he actually pitched effectively, speaks to his stuff and how projectable he was even before the slider and the explosion. Don't think that reflects either that Law is dumb or that the Cubs reached.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

By my rough estimate off of the MLB.com draft rankings, there are still 79 of the top 250 prospects available. Anyone think we still have funds to overslot another couple of players?

 

Can’t imagine they have more than $250-$350k (the first $125k doesn’t count to the pool). You’re looking for preps who aren’t as interested in college as suspected - like

Dominic Hambley, Esequiel Pagán and Porter Hodge.