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2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

CaliforniaRaisin
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craig First Round Pick

craig

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Wow, big surprise. An overslot for 23-year-old Noland is totally a shocker. I'd totally assumed he'd be a standard $25K type senior-sign guy. Plus with other pitchers profiling as high-velocity guys, I didn't anticipate a 23-year-old 88-91 mph finesse guy to get overslot.

 

They must love his apart-from-velocity profile. Could also be another case where Callis is reporting 88-91 as his normal fastball, but Cubs scout it more favorably. Perhaps typical was 88-91, but everybody touches higher, so maybe they've seen touch 94-96, and figure they can normalize that in pitch lab? Or maybe he's an old-school 2-seam guy, and it's good; but they figure he can pick up a 94-95 4-seam, or something like that?

 

I'm both shocked and kind of delighted. I'd assume he was just a roster-fill senior-sign, not really a big-league prospect. The fact that they expend superslot dollars on him reflects that they must view him as an actual prospect. Fun!

craig First Round Pick

craig

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Other than Ferris and Mule, all of the figures are in for the first 10 rounds.

1. With some roundoff, there is ~$1.89 available for superslot, between the 5% overage and the underslots.

2. Counting slot for Ferris and Mule, there appears to be just under $4.1 M to apply between Ferris, Mule, and any 3rd-day superslot dollars.

 

I'm still guessing $3.0 and $1.0 for Ferris and Mule; which would leave ≤~$90K for 3rd-day overslot offers to Wheat and Blatter. (assuming none of NOriega or Rujano already got that....).

 

Or perhaps Mule will get $0.9 like Paciolla got, and leave a little more for Blatter?

 

Hull was the only significant underslot guy. McCullough got $125K, so basically 3rd-day slot. McGwire $200, just a modest little overslot.

d_money First Round Pick

d_money

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I thought the $125K was the minimum available to all 3rd day guys and that those funds don’t count towards the total cap (or something like that).
Tim MVP

Tim

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I thought the $125K was the minimum available to all 3rd day guys and that those funds don’t count towards the total cap (or something like that).

$125k is the maximum that day 3 guys can be paid without it counting toward the overall cap. They can be signed for $1 if they agree to it. But the only reason not to give them the $125k is the org being stingy.

CaliforniaRaisin GOAT

CaliforniaRaisin

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With bonuses out for everyone in the top 10 rounds who has signed plus Rujano who got more than $125k, the Cubs have $4,005,005 for Ferris, Mulé and any other Day 3 pick who gets more than $125k.

 

Guys who haven’t signed yet: Ferris (2), Mulé (4), Marshall (14), Wheat (16) and Blatters (19).

Tim MVP

Tim

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Assuming Ferris signs, that gets us to 18 picks out of 20. I'd love to get Wheat & Blatter, also, but that may be asking too much.
Hrubes20 Draft Eligible

Hrubes20

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It's crazy how dedicated an A's fan is to tracking the Cubs draft picks every year. Thanks Savermetrics!

 

He’s a Cubs fan. Wes (or Yagyu for those who came over from PSD) has been doing the Lord’s work on Cubs draft signing info for a long time. He started way before the slot assignments and bonus pools. Back when you legitimately had no idea if a prep player taken in the 3rd round was going to sign.

craig First Round Pick

craig

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Assuming Ferris signs, that gets us to 18 picks out of 20. I'd love to get Wheat & Blatter, also, but that may be asking too much.

 

Don't imagine either of those guys is getting signed, unless Ferris fails his physical and needs a slimmer deal than expected.

 

Last year Kantro said his goal was to save an extra ≤$100K for a 3rd-day overslots, one "bullet" he called it, in hopes that a $200K deal get one of them to sign, kinda first-come-first-served. He signed one overslot, Hambley, for $75K, at $200K. This year he took fewer HS guys on 3rd day, and he already shot his $210 bullet on Rujano ($85K over).

 

So I'm kinda guessing his approach may be similar to last year; that he saved one bullet not two; and that he actually drafted fewer HR guys this 3rd-day recognizing he didn't have bullets for two or more.

 

Obviously I might be wrong.

1. With a much bigger overall budget, plus with liking Horton as a serious underslot, perhaps he figured he had enough discretionary budget so that he could shoot two "bullets" this year?

2. Or, maybe he thought that in retrospect, saving a bullet or two is really a great process, and he wished he'd somehow saved two last year, and this year totally committed to doing that?

3. Third, he mentioned that he expected to sign 18.... or 19 players. Why did he think 19 was even possible, if he knew he had only one bullet to shoot between Rujano-Wheat-Blatter? So perhaps either he has a second bullet, or else he thinks one of those guys might still settle for $125 slot?

4. Or, to spin a more unlikely scenario, maybe Kantro's already signed Mule, but at only $900K like Paciolla, rather than the $1M I've assumed. So maybe he's still got $3.1 left. So maybe he's offered the second $100K bullett to Blatter or Wheat. *If* one of them hypothetically takes is, great; Ferris will then sign for the nice round $3.0M. But perhaps as a good-will measure, Kantro has told Ferris that *if* hypothetically neither Blatter nor Wheat take that last $100K, then Kantro will just good-will add that to Ferris's deal, and make it $3.1 instead of $3.0? :):)

texascub ACL Cubs

texascub

Old-Timey Member
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Looking at similarly ranked pitchers to Jackson Ferris, Dylan Lesko got $3.9M, Brock Porter got $3.7M, Brandon Barriera got $3.5M, and Robby Snelling got $3M. Hopefully the Cubs and Ferris can come to an agreement soon.
craig First Round Pick

craig

Old-Timey Member
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Tom, I agree that McGwire is a fun pick. Projectability all the way.

 

Obviously every good-framed 24-year bust was a projectable 18-year-old once. So we can imagine anything we want when a guy is 18. But yeah, he seems like such an ideal projection guy, really fun guy for Breslow to try to work with. And like you say, his delivery in the little video seems balanced and suitable for control. Fun project.

 

Last year, Kantro got only 5 players above the $135K threshold: Obviously Wicks, Triantos and Gray; plus Franklin and 3rd-day Hambley.

 

This year he's added nine $200K-or-more guys. McGwire, Rujano, Noland, Frisch all in that $200-228 range, and Birdsell at $385. Will be interesting to see how many of the guys in that intermediate price-range work out.

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