Winning in 2023

[PriorFighter]

What about a Detroit trade to bring back Javy? He's having a terrible year, but like Reyes (who I'm admittedly overhyped on) could possibly benefit from a change (change back) of scenery. He currently has the 2nd lowest K rate of his career and an atrocious .278 BABIP (a full 50 point below his career average). Looks like his GB rate is way up, maybe DET trying to change his approach.

 

It's not a great contract for a player of his profile for sure, but something like a Canario and a lottery ticket & DET picks up $5-6 mil per year.

 

Bat him 6-7, let him play either 2nd or 3rd and go from there if he can recapture some of the magic. A Hoerner/Baez/FA SS/Wisdom holding 1B for Mervis is a pretty solid defensive infield with a chance to really do some damage offensively.

[Tryptamine]

Fun with numbers that mean basically nothing because of sample size, but since Franmil joined the Cubs

 

30 PA .367/.367/.733 line good for a .465 wOBA and 201 wRC+

 

It would help this team out so much if they cold turn him into something like a 130 wRC+ DH. Last I saw the league average for a DH was 107 wRC+.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yeah Reyes being reasonably certain as the DH is not only objectively good, but it clarifies some of the direction you might go with other positions. You're less incentivized to bring back Willson if you have another 120 wRC+ RHH that you want to play most days as a DH. You worry less about OF depth and maybe trading someone like Happ or Velazquez, because even if Seiya doesn't bounce back you aren't relying on the OF to soak up a bunch of DH playing time too. And it clarifies the need around 1B a bit more, in that you probably aren't doing a new platoon at 1B and are likely going to want to target some type of LHH there(could be Bell, Mervis, a reclamation, etc)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Has anyone seen a specific number for Smyly's option next year? This year's salary, the incentives, and the buyout seem to be common knowledge, but I can't seem to find any place that spells out how much the option is for. Given the buyout isn't super substantial my guess is it's 8 figures, but given the ambiguity around the rotation and Smyly's strong finish I'm at least curious.

[Cubswin11]

Has anyone seen a specific number for Smyly's option next year? This year's salary, the incentives, and the buyout seem to be common knowledge, but I can't seem to find any place that spells out how much the option is for. Given the buyout isn't super substantial my guess is it's 8 figures, but given the ambiguity around the rotation and Smyly's strong finish I'm at least curious.

I’ve been trying to find this too but all I see is a $1 mil buyout if either side declines. Maybe that’s due to incentives that aren’t calculable yet?

[champaignchris]

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-cubs/drew-smyly-10664/

 

Sportrac seems to think it’s a $5.25mm mutual option, which I would assume Smyly will decline.

[Bertz]

Sharma's article in the Athletic this AM made it sound like even if both sides are super happy with the relationship it'd likely have to be an extension:

 

When the possibility of being traded was brought up to Drew Smyly before the deadline, he wanted no part of it. After tossing seven innings of one-run ball in Monday’s loss, Smyly again reiterated his desire to stick with the team. He has given the Cubs a 3.12 ERA in eight starts since returning from the injured list and dominated this month in four starts with a 1.13 ERA. With a mutual option that requires a $1 million buyout, it’s likely that to be a part of this team next year, the Cubs would have to reach out to Smyly over the next month-plus to see whether they could come to an agreement. But he has made his desire clear.

[CubinNY]

Also, putting public pressure on the Cubs is nice

 

[UMFan83]

 

What are the chances that we can (or even want) to sign Miley for cheap after being injured basically all last season? He was great the rare times when he pitched. He might be had cheaply. Or are we past the point of needing to sign cheap lottery tickets and should just focus on a reliable mid-rotation pitcher in FA?

[CubinNY]

 

What are the chances that we can (or even want) to sign Miley for cheap after being injured basically all last season? He was great the rare times when he pitched. He might be had cheaply. Or are we past the point of needing to sign cheap lottery tickets and should just focus on a reliable mid-rotation pitcher in FA?

At his age, he will likely retire. I wouldn't sign him to any contract whatsoever.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

What are the chances that we can (or even want) to sign Miley for cheap after being injured basically all last season? He was great the rare times when he pitched. He might be had cheaply. Or are we past the point of needing to sign cheap lottery tickets and should just focus on a reliable mid-rotation pitcher in FA?

 

I think Miley in particular would be an uphill battle, but not impossible. If you're only adding one SP then it needs to be someone who has higher ceiling or more certainty than Miley, probably both. If you're adding two then he becomes a little more feasible if the price is right, but since Miley doesn't have that upside, wouldn't be one of the Top 5 starters if everyone's healthy, and wouldn't be a great fit for the bullpen with his repertoire, I think they probably go their separate ways. Those things are far less true with Smyly, hence my interest on the last page.

[Cubswin11]

Unless he’s complete toast/medicals are horsefeathers, Miley on a NRI that guarantees him whatever inconsequential amount I’d be down for. Do the he has the call up/opt out by whatever x date and then he can be a FA but if he comes up he gets like $2 mil + incentives, seems like the play with him as of now if they want to keep him.

[UMFan83]

 

What are the chances that we can (or even want) to sign Miley for cheap after being injured basically all last season? He was great the rare times when he pitched. He might be had cheaply. Or are we past the point of needing to sign cheap lottery tickets and should just focus on a reliable mid-rotation pitcher in FA?

At his age, he will likely retire. I wouldn't sign him to any contract whatsoever.

 

Why would he retire? 36 isn't young but not too old for a guy that isn't relying on overwhelming stuff and has been a strong starter of late (3.50 ERA over his last 5 seasons and he was pretty damn good the 4 starts he did make for the Cubs). I imagine as long as his injuries aren't career-threatening he will get some sort of offer. Possibly a NRI or minor league deal but I wouldn't be shocked if a team looking for starter depth offers him a major league deal.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Not a for sure non-tender given that the Dodgers won't be in a snug LT situation and they don't have abundant in-house CF options, but if they do non-tender him and he could be had on a short term deal that isn't too expensive, Bellinger could be a bit of a skeleton key for the offseason. LH bat with some pop that plays a legitimate defensive CF but also is at home at 1B, it gives you some real options in how you put the rest of the roster together. It's not without risk, the quoted article says ZiPS thinks the remainder of his career will look like Brant Brown, but that's why he's available and not super expensive.

 

For example, an "aggressive" offseason could look something like Correa, Contreras, Bellinger, and trading Velazquez for Marquez. Aggressive is in quotes because it does take the overall payroll above where I think it's likely to be on opening day, but does so in a way that is consistent with how Jed has operated. It only adds 2 contracts longer than 1-2 years(Correa/Contreras), it prioritizes youth(only Contreras is even 29 on opening day), and it doesn't make longer commitments to pitchers. Add in your favorite cohort of relievers and maybe a bat-first rehab for free, and I think that team is looking pretty competitive.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Also also…do they *need* their full draft budget next year? I submit they do not, farm’s got plenty of healthy and young unknowns, expand the field to QO’d FAs

 

If they don't bring back Willson it nets out, which is how most well-run teams with money have approached the QO. Those teams tend to be picking a bit lower than the 2023 Cubs will, but I don't think that's a huge deterrent. What's maybe the bigger incentive for Correa than the QO is age, on a mega deal those 18 months he has over Turner and 2 years over Bogaerts make a real difference.

[Rex Buckingham]

I know it's not the draft thread, but with the draft discussion, I'd love for there to be a guy with huge bonus demands that falls to wherever they end up picking, and then they punt on a couple extra top 10 rd picks...

[We Got The Whole 9]

Been pounding the table for this for like 5 years now but we should probably get more guys who can hit breaking pitches

 

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[Bertz]

Just thinking out loud about going all in on run prevention this winter. Something like:

 

Carlos Rodon (~$30M/year over 4-5 years)

Kevin Keiermaier (~$10M)

Omar Narvaez (~$10M/year for 2 years)

Late inning reliever x2 (~$15M)

 

SP - Rodon, Stro, Steele, Thompson, Hendricks

 

3B - Morel

LF - Happ

DH - Reyes

RF - Suzuki

SS - Hoerner

1B - Wisdom

C - Narvaez

2B - Madrigal

CF - Keiermaier

 

Aside from Wisdom, who's fairly inexperienced at 1B, everyone above is defensively somewhere between good and great at their respective positions. The rotation is probably a top 10 unit, and with Alzolay in the 'pen and Kilian and Wisneski at Iowa it's got as much quality depth as any other other team in the league.

 

Offensively, the lineup probably projects to about average, but it's pretty easy to spot downside risks. Though having Davis, Canario, and Mervis hanging out at Iowa helps mitigate many of those. It'd be really cool if Mckinstry started hitting, because a quality LHH infielder plus the Iowa reinforcements would paper over most concerns.

 

I think I prefer the offseason variations that involve one of the shortstops, but the above probably nets out to a similarly competitive team and given how many fewer long term dollars get allocated it might be more up Jed's alley.

[CyHawk_Cub]

^^not my idea of a fun team to watch, but yeah, likely scratch out some wins and be competitive.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You could probably get away with adding a SS to that group by scaling down the RP spend a little, and replace Rodon with, say, Thor. Still satisfies the run prevention spirit but gets you that extra star power.

[UMFan83]

Just thinking out loud about going all in on run prevention this winter. Something like:

 

Carlos Rodon (~$30M/year over 4-5 years)

Kevin Keiermaier (~$10M)

Omar Narvaez (~$10M/year for 2 years)

Late inning reliever x2 (~$15M)

 

SP - Rodon, Stro, Steele, Thompson, Hendricks

 

3B - Morel

LF - Happ

DH - Reyes

RF - Suzuki

SS - Hoerner

1B - Wisdom

C - Narvaez

2B - Madrigal

CF - Keiermaier

 

Aside from Wisdom, who's fairly inexperienced at 1B, everyone above is defensively somewhere between good and great at their respective positions. The rotation is probably a top 10 unit, and with Alzolay in the 'pen and Kilian and Wisneski at Iowa it's got as much quality depth as any other other team in the league.

 

Offensively, the lineup probably projects to about average, but it's pretty easy to spot downside risks. Though having Davis, Canario, and Mervis hanging out at Iowa helps mitigate many of those. It'd be really cool if Mckinstry started hitting, because a quality LHH infielder plus the Iowa reinforcements would paper over most concerns.

 

I think I prefer the offseason variations that involve one of the shortstops, but the above probably nets out to a similarly competitive team and given how many fewer long term dollars get allocated it might be more up Jed's alley.

 

Not sure how that roster projects to average offense. They are below average this year (20th in wRC+) and are massively downgrading at catcher (offensively), and probably breaking even at CF (with the position shuffle you are basically trying to replace 1B production this year). You hope that Seiya and Madrigal improve and a full season of Reyes (who I'm not necessarily sold on yet). Overall I think it projects to be worse than this year, but I'd be open to arguments on the contrary.

[Bertz]

Not sure how that roster projects to average offense. They are below average this year (20th in wRC+) and are massively downgrading at catcher (offensively), and probably breaking even at CF (with the position shuffle you are basically trying to replace 1B production this year). You hope that Seiya and Madrigal improve and a full season of Reyes (who I'm not necessarily sold on yet). Overall I think it projects to be worse than this year, but I'd be open to arguments on the contrary.

 

Cubs 1B have collectively hit like catchers, so getting even adequate 1B production is a massive offensive boost and probably balances the loss of Willson. That said, it's generally better in these scenarios to start from scratch rather than taking last year and doing a bunch of debits/credits from there. Here are the current rest of season wRC+ projections for that batting order:

 

Morel - 91

Happ - 120

Reyes - 109

Suzuki - 126

Hoerner - 104

Wisdom - 105

Narvaez - 98

Madrigal - 97

Kiermaier - 92

 

It's not perfect way of looking at things since obviously everyone will be a year older (though the lineups young enough it might do as much good as harm?), but I think it shows that there's not really any black holes in the offense. While Keirmaier and Narvaez are defense first guys, they're not exactly Andrelton Simmons. Especially since they'll get some platoon help from Gomes and Velazquez.

[muntjack]

Spending on the lineup and trading to strengthen the rotation could work, too.

 

Sign Willson, one of the SS and a pen arm

 

Go big after two younger, TOR types, and be willing to pay a premium for them (as opposed to the reclamation route)

 

Spitballing:

 

Alcantara, Wicks, Marquez and Amaya for Zac Gallen

 

Thompson, Triantos, Preciado, Herz for Jesus Luzardo

 

Gallen

Luzardo

Stroman

Steele

Hendricks

 

1. Turner, SS

2. Nico, 2B

3. Willson, C

4. Happ, LF

5. Reyes, DH

6. Suzuki, RF

7. Mervis, 1B

8. Morel, CF

9. Wisdom, 3B

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You could probably get away with adding a SS to that group by scaling down the RP spend a little, and replace Rodon with, say, Thor. Still satisfies the run prevention spirit but gets you that extra star power.

 

By ERA, FIP, FIP, K-BB%, fWAR, WPA, HR/FB%...Rodon's been anywhere from the best to the 5th best SP in baseball over the past two years. He's still easy top 10-15 when considering velocity, SwStr%, CSW%, and only slips towards top 30 because of IP and GS.

 

This is to say swapping him out for Noah Syndergaard would totally take the spirit out of a run prevention offseason. Syndergaard's 27% CSW is barely league average for a SP and actually worse than Kyle Hendricks' 28%. His 1.6 fWAR over the past two years, knowing 2021 went to injury, is right with Hendricks' 1.7. He may be "safer" than Hendricks for 2023, but he's about the same talent tier and a big step down from this prime Rodon

 

Worth noting, since the SSs are in your discussion, that only Bogaerts and Swanson are plus defenders at the position this year among the top 4 FA SSs...only Boagerts across the FGs fielding board...If the spirit is satisfied by this swap, assuming we're OK with Correa or Turner in this run prevention oriented hypothetical, it's in a very different way than the original

 

Yes, the idea is a less expensive pitcher wouldn’t quite be as good, though the comparison to Hendricks is silly and Thor is an example. Call it the 20M and under SP and replace the name with your preference.

 

As for the SS, I’d still take Correa as above average, but part of the thinking is there’s enough positional flexibility that you get games with him at SS and 3B just like Wisdom might play at both corners or Hoerner might play both up the middle.

[UMFan83]

Would this help us win in 2023?

 

 

I'm not even sure what a deal would look like. Obviously going to be way underpaid in 2023 but is then a UFA. Given that some reports suggested the Cubs were Ohtani's second choice after the Angels, I'm sure he'd be more than willing to sign an extension, but the Angels are clearly going to want a haul for him.

 

Is Davis or PCA, Steele, C. Hernandez and Mervis for Ohtani too steep?