2021 Offseason Thread

[Rob]

what stars have left colorado and been the same?

 

What stars has Colorado even had?

 

Helton

Walker

Holliday

Tulowitzki

Arenado

Gonzalez

Blackmon

 

Helton and Blackmon never played outside Colorado. Tulo and CarGo were fairly washed up before they left Colorado. The rest have put up good years in STL that weren’t otherwise up to their standards.

 

It’s not much of a sample.

[UMFan83]

what stars have left colorado and been the same?

 

What stars has Colorado even had?

 

Helton

Walker

Holliday

Tulowitzki

Arenado

Gonzalez

Blackmon

 

Helton and Blackmon never played outside Colorado. Tulo and CarGo were fairly washed up before they left Colorado. The rest have put up good years in STL that weren’t otherwise up to their standards.

 

It’s not much of a sample.

 

True but there’s articles out there that analyze the performance of any player that leaves Colorado and their numbers in general do not change very much.

[Clem Fandango]

Unless you're Juan Pierre who never had power.

[chopsx9]

what stars have left colorado and been the same?

 

What stars has Colorado even had?

 

Helton

Walker

Holliday

Tulowitzki

Arenado

Gonzalez

Blackmon

 

Helton and Blackmon never played outside Colorado. Tulo and CarGo were fairly washed up before they left Colorado. The rest have put up good years in STL that weren’t otherwise up to their standards.

 

It’s not much of a sample.

 

True but there’s articles out there that analyze the performance of any player that leaves Colorado and their numbers in general do not change very much.

 

What would be at least as telling to me is: Has any player ever left Colorado and had their numbers improve?

 

Galarraga had his numbers jump significantly at age 32 - especially over his previous 4 seasons - once he hit Colorado - now he did have pretty similar numbers his first year in Atlanta as well.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

 

What stars has Colorado even had?

 

Helton

Walker

Holliday

Tulowitzki

Arenado

Gonzalez

Blackmon

 

Helton and Blackmon never played outside Colorado. Tulo and CarGo were fairly washed up before they left Colorado. The rest have put up good years in STL that weren’t otherwise up to their standards.

 

It’s not much of a sample.

 

True but there’s articles out there that analyze the performance of any player that leaves Colorado and their numbers in general do not change very much.

 

What would be at least as telling to me is: Has any player ever left Colorado and had their numbers improve?

 

Galarraga had his numbers jump significantly at age 32 - especially over his previous 4 seasons - once he hit Colorado - now he did have pretty similar numbers his first year in Atlanta as well.

As long as you are accounting/equalizing for the fact that everyone hits better, in general, at Coors, GMs probably won't go too far wrong. I'd assume some hitters will do slightly better at Coors than others: hitters that feast on fastballs (because high-spin pitches are much less effective at Coors), power-hitters with extremely high average launch angles (because duh), and high OBP guys with very low launch angles (because the ball just travels farther, and the outfield is massive). But focusing on "stars" and how they have fared since leaving Coors seems a weird way to evaluate the post-Coors effect. Most everyone that becomes a "star" and signs somewhere else tends to be over-valued and likely to underpreform most peoples' expectations.

[UMFan83]

 

What stars has Colorado even had?

 

Helton

Walker

Holliday

Tulowitzki

Arenado

Gonzalez

Blackmon

 

Helton and Blackmon never played outside Colorado. Tulo and CarGo were fairly washed up before they left Colorado. The rest have put up good years in STL that weren’t otherwise up to their standards.

 

It’s not much of a sample.

 

True but there’s articles out there that analyze the performance of any player that leaves Colorado and their numbers in general do not change very much.

 

What would be at least as telling to me is: Has any player ever left Colorado and had their numbers improve?

 

Galarraga had his numbers jump significantly at age 32 - especially over his previous 4 seasons - once he hit Colorado - now he did have pretty similar numbers his first year in Atlanta as well.

 

Yes but that was pre-humidor which has been effective in suppressing offensive explosions at a decent rate. He also maintained his numbers to some degree after leaving Colorado.

[Bertz]

It sounds like there's more and more expectation of an expanded roster for April, and the Cubs' backend starters specifically are expecting there to be piggybacking the first few turns through. So I think this is the rough guess at the opening day 28 man roster

 

C - Contreras, Gomes

1B - Schwindel

2B - Madrigal, Hoerner

SS - Simmons, Villar

3B - Wisdom

LF - Happ

CF - Ortega, Hermosillo

RF - Suzuki, Heyward

DH - Frazier

 

SP1 - Hendricks

SP2 - Stro

SP3 - Miley, Thompson

SP4 - Smyly

SP5 - Mills, Steele

 

CL - Wick

SU- Martin, Givens, Robertson

MR - Norris, Chavez, Effross

 

On the position player side, it'll be interesting to see who gets the bump when rosters get cut down. Smart money is probably on a phantom IL stints for Heyward, but I do wonder if he's a threat to be outright cut if he's still not performing.

 

Pitching-wise dropping Thompson down to Iowa to stretch out is probably easiest. That said they can largely follow a meritocracy with the pitching staff. Of the vets only Hendricks and Stro are signed past this year, the rest can easily be cut if they're not performing.

[CubinNY]

It sounds like there's more and more expectation of an expanded roster for April, and the Cubs' backend starters specifically are expecting there to be piggybacking the first few turns through. So I think this is the rough guess at the opening day 28 man roster

 

C - Contreras, Gomes

1B - Schwindel

2B - Madrigal, Hoerner

SS - Simmons, Villar

3B - Wisdom

LF - Happ

CF - Ortega, Hermosillo

RF - Suzuki, Heyward

DH - Frazier

 

SP1 - Hendricks

SP2 - Stro

SP3 - Miley, Thompson

SP4 - Smyly

SP5 - Mills, Steele

 

CL - Wick

SU- Martin, Givens, Robertson

MR - Norris, Chavez, Effross

 

On the position player side, it'll be interesting to see who gets the bump when rosters get cut down. Smart money is probably on a phantom IL stints for Heyward, but I do wonder if he's a threat to be outright cut if he's still not performing.

 

Pitching-wise dropping Thompson down to Iowa to stretch out is probably easiest. That said they can largely follow a meritocracy with the pitching staff. Of the vets only Hendricks and Stro are signed past this year, the rest can easily be cut if they're not performing.

 

I can see this team winning ~75 games, but there is real potential for a 100 loss season. I suppose the fact that they get to play the Reds and Pirates a lot will help, but wow.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I can see this team winning ~75 games, but there is real potential for a 100 loss season. I suppose the fact that they get to play the Reds and Pirates a lot will help, but wow.

 

ZiPS says around 80: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jonathan-villar-joins-the-cubs-as-their-newest-jack-of-all-trades/

 

With each one of their moves, the Cubs sneak just that much closer to contention. Last week, ZiPS had Chicago with an 11.1% chance to make the playoffs. Since then, the team has added Villar, Suzuki, Simmons, and David Robertson. At the same time, the Reds have cleaned house to the extent that their roster resembles a serving plate of Buffalo wings at 11:45 PM on Super Bowl Sunday. This has crept the Cubs to a fraction of a win below 80 in ZiPS, with a 27.0% chance of making the playoffs.

 

Villar doesn’t make the Cubs playoff favorites, but he makes the team better and more playoff relevant.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

One thing I will say is that this roster construction puts a lot on Ross to get things right. If he plays a favorite position player or two way more than performance/matchups dictate, or isn't clear eyed about the bullpen pecking order, then that's gonna bleed more wins compared to previous year's roster construction. But as it is this is set up to be a team that's greater than the sum of its parts thanks to its depth and the way it fits together.

[squally1313]

I can see this team winning ~75 games, but there is real potential for a 100 loss season. I suppose the fact that they get to play the Reds and Pirates a lot will help, but wow.

 

ZiPS says around 80: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jonathan-villar-joins-the-cubs-as-their-newest-jack-of-all-trades/

 

With each one of their moves, the Cubs sneak just that much closer to contention. Last week, ZiPS had Chicago with an 11.1% chance to make the playoffs. Since then, the team has added Villar, Suzuki, Simmons, and David Robertson. At the same time, the Reds have cleaned house to the extent that their roster resembles a serving plate of Buffalo wings at 11:45 PM on Super Bowl Sunday. This has crept the Cubs to a fraction of a win below 80 in ZiPS, with a 27.0% chance of making the playoffs.

 

Villar doesn’t make the Cubs playoff favorites, but he makes the team better and more playoff relevant.

 

You're not wrong about the projections, but forgive me for not heaping extra credit on the organization because the Reds decided to do a bunch of stuff that bumped our projected record against them from 11-11 to 15-7.

[CubinNY]

I can see this team winning ~75 games, but there is real potential for a 100 loss season. I suppose the fact that they get to play the Reds and Pirates a lot will help, but wow.

 

ZiPS says around 80: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jonathan-villar-joins-the-cubs-as-their-newest-jack-of-all-trades/

 

With each one of their moves, the Cubs sneak just that much closer to contention. Last week, ZiPS had Chicago with an 11.1% chance to make the playoffs. Since then, the team has added Villar, Suzuki, Simmons, and David Robertson. At the same time, the Reds have cleaned house to the extent that their roster resembles a serving plate of Buffalo wings at 11:45 PM on Super Bowl Sunday. This has crept the Cubs to a fraction of a win below 80 in ZiPS, with a 27.0% chance of making the playoffs.

 

Villar doesn’t make the Cubs playoff favorites, but he makes the team better and more playoff relevant.

 

What are they going to do in July if they are hovering around .500 and are 8 games behind the Brewers/Cards and 3 games out of the Wild Card? It's more a rhetorical question, but does anyone think they sell farm hands to maybe squeak into the Wild Card? Isn't it much more likely they sell?

[sneakypower]

there is real potential for a 100 loss season. I suppose the fact that they get to play the Reds and Pirates a lot will help, but wow.

i don't see that at all, like the one benefit of building the entire team out of nice bench players is you're not really too exposed to major injuries torpedoing your season, but except for Suzuki & maybe Madrigral/Happ, bullpen leverage, there's not really a whole lot of positive variance you can foresee either

 

the team probably is what it is for the most part

[Bertz]

One thing I will say is that this roster construction puts a lot on Ross to get things right. If he plays a favorite position player or two way more than performance/matchups dictate, or isn't clear eyed about the bullpen pecking order, then that's gonna bleed more wins compared to previous year's roster construction. But as it is this is set up to be a team that's greater than the sum of its parts thanks to its depth and the way it fits together.

 

Self scouting is important for everyone, but yeah this team is gonna live or die by it. The Giants were a similar team entering last year, and then Gabe Kapler turned into a precog and pulled all the right levers all year and they were amazing. There's no reason to expect that kind of thing from Ross (or frankly, even Kapler again) but it shows the magnitude of impact a high end managerial performance can have with this type of roster.

 

My guess is this ends up being a high 70's win team, but kind of like the 2014 squad we feel really good about the team running out there by the second half. I think it's going to take some time to work through the playing time battles, and like you mentioned you just know that there's gonna be a hiccup with one or two of them (Ross sticking with Heyward far longer than is reasonable seems most likely). But when Davis comes up the OF alignment is pretty set, and I would think whatever landmines end up on the pitching staff will have gotten the axe and been backfilled from Iowa by Memorial Day or sooner.

 

I'm not worried about the deadline. On the position player side, Catchers rarely get dealt in July, and no one else of consequence is liable to be dealt. On the pitching staff, if walk-year guys like Miley and Smyly and Givens are shoving enough to have significant value, then I doubt the team holistically is struggling enough to sell.

[Cubswin11]

I can see this team winning ~75 games, but there is real potential for a 100 loss season. I suppose the fact that they get to play the Reds and Pirates a lot will help, but wow.

 

ZiPS says around 80: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jonathan-villar-joins-the-cubs-as-their-newest-jack-of-all-trades/

 

With each one of their moves, the Cubs sneak just that much closer to contention. Last week, ZiPS had Chicago with an 11.1% chance to make the playoffs. Since then, the team has added Villar, Suzuki, Simmons, and David Robertson. At the same time, the Reds have cleaned house to the extent that their roster resembles a serving plate of Buffalo wings at 11:45 PM on Super Bowl Sunday. This has crept the Cubs to a fraction of a win below 80 in ZiPS, with a 27.0% chance of making the playoffs.

 

Villar doesn’t make the Cubs playoff favorites, but he makes the team better and more playoff relevant.

 

What are they going to do in July if they are hovering around .500 and are 8 games behind the Brewers/Cards and 3 games out of the Wild Card? It's more a rhetorical question, but does anyone think they sell farm hands to maybe squeak into the Wild Card? Isn't it much more likely they sell?

If they’re in that spot in July it may depend on what Davis and some of the other young guys are looking like. Like if Davis, Velasquez, Kilian, etc all look ready (or are already up and contributing) maybe they do at least some small buying along with having them up.

[Derwood]

Nick Castellanos to Philly

[Tim]

Nick Castellanos to Philly

Are you only hearing this now?

[Derwood]

Nick Castellanos to Philly

Are you only hearing this now?

 

Clearly, yes. If it was posted here I missed it

[champaignchris]

Is Conforto gong to do the Kimbrel thing and wait to sign until the QO penalty expires?

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Baez to the Tigers

[David]

 

so, this might sound crazy, but i think this might be about marcus stroman.

[ChiCubsFan]

 

so, this might sound crazy, but i think this might be about marcus stroman.

 

Gotta get it done quickly. A lockout seems inevitable at this point.

[Bull]

Leave poor Derwood alone!

[Bertz]

[Derwood]

Babe Ruth to the Yankees