Jump to content
North Side Baseball

2021 Offseason Thread

Bertz

By Bertz,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

 Share
  • Replies 887
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

Trying to put on my positivity hat in a morning where it certainly seems like we're getting primed for a kick to the nads, should we be bracing for Trevor Story?

 

Simmons + Correa IMO didn't make any sense, but Simmons + Story makes a lot. Trevor Story is historically a pretty good defensive shortstop, but was bad last year, especially in the second half. That was probably just because of a shoulder injury in his throwing arm, but you would understand wanting to not risk it. Plus, as more of a pretty good defensive shortstop generally, it's not as infeasible that a team would bump him over to 3rd a few days a week when they have a superior glove on hand.

 

Financially, we know Jed wanted Correa on a shorter term, 6-7 year deal. Well Story is/was expected to get something like 6/150. And hell, you could always pay up and try to get that shorter term too, something like 3/100. That's essentially what Jed just did with Stroman.

 

There's also the matter of who else is going to sign him. He might be who the Twins were clearing up money for last night? Otherwise while there are teams who could use a SS, most of them seem to be in tank mode or focused on improving elsewhere.

Gilby First Round Pick

Gilby

Verified Member
Posted
Posted (edited)
My thinking/hoping is that we're putting the full court press on Suzuki if/after we miss on Correa. If Jed wants him and the scouts believe in him, there's no reason we shouldn't be the highest bidder at that level considering where the payroll is at. I also think it's the main reason why Hosmer isn't a Cub yet because the Padres want him too. Edited by Gilby
Transmogrified Tiger All-Star

Transmogrified Tiger

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Someone please help me understand what will be the Cubs' plans if they don't extend and/or trade Contreras?

 

If they extend him, you don't need me to tell you Willson is the catcher into the future. If they trade him, I assume they'll want to add another catcher. That could come in trade(e.g. Campusano in a Hosmer trade), they can afford someone not established in MLB given what Gomes can offer so there's a bit of target flexibility. If they don't extend or trade him, then he'll play out the year and go to FA where they can try some more to keep him or get a pick as compensation. Too far in the future to have a clear idea how they'd approach the position at that point.

Transmogrified Tiger All-Star

Transmogrified Tiger

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

I'm being impatient because it'll get answered in a couple weeks, but I really wish I could see how the position player group fits together. If you take it piece by piece I don't see any huge issues.

 

Correa(or Story) would obviously be better, but if that doesn't/can't happen then I can see the logic for Hoerner/Madrigal/Simmons making a decent middle infield grouping. It'd be better if one were left handed, but their skill sets are diverse enough that the whole can be greater than the sum of the parts, and that's the type of thing you need to unexpectedly compete.

 

I also understand running it back with Schwindel and Wisdom on the corners. I mean, they combined for 4.5 fWAR in 615 PA, even with regression there's a decent bar to clear if you're going to upgrade on them, and while their age matters they're team controlled for a while.

 

I also get the volume among the outfielders. Individually you can find plenty of flaws with Frazier, Ortega, Hermosillo, Ramirez, Heyward, or any of the MiLB guys, but rebuilds are accelerated through unexpected jumps in productivity and to do that you need to offer the time to do it.

 

The hangup I have is that while it makes sense to treat each of these individually, in aggregate you have a big lack of investment on top of basically no LH bats. Was not signing a SS until Simmons leaving the door open for a right-sized Correa deal and now that group is set? Were they always planning on a LH 1B/DH bat(Rizzo rumors, Hosmer) to hedge against Schwindel? Are all the non-Happ(and maybe for different reasons, Heyward) outfielders just flyers they plan on tossing if they don't look great in ST and they plan to get a starting OF(Suzuki? One of the QOs now that Correa is out of play?) to reinforce? Or is that the OF group they think they have 2 starters from?

Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

 

Wow, what a haul. Have to assume the Freeman decision has happened and just isn't public yet. Between this and Suzuki I'd imagine the position player side of things starts moving pretty quickly from here.

Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted
I'm being impatient because it'll get answered in a couple weeks, but I really wish I could see how the position player group fits together. If you take it piece by piece I don't see any huge issues.

 

Correa(or Story) would obviously be better, but if that doesn't/can't happen then I can see the logic for Hoerner/Madrigal/Simmons making a decent middle infield grouping. It'd be better if one were left handed, but their skill sets are diverse enough that the whole can be greater than the sum of the parts, and that's the type of thing you need to unexpectedly compete.

 

I also understand running it back with Schwindel and Wisdom on the corners. I mean, they combined for 4.5 fWAR in 615 PA, even with regression there's a decent bar to clear if you're going to upgrade on them, and while their age matters they're team controlled for a while.

 

I also get the volume among the outfielders. Individually you can find plenty of flaws with Frazier, Ortega, Hermosillo, Ramirez, Heyward, or any of the MiLB guys, but rebuilds are accelerated through unexpected jumps in productivity and to do that you need to offer the time to do it.

 

The hangup I have is that while it makes sense to treat each of these individually, in aggregate you have a big lack of investment on top of basically no LH bats. Was not signing a SS until Simmons leaving the door open for a right-sized Correa deal and now that group is set? Were they always planning on a LH 1B/DH bat(Rizzo rumors, Hosmer) to hedge against Schwindel? Are all the non-Happ(and maybe for different reasons, Heyward) outfielders just flyers they plan on tossing if they don't look great in ST and they plan to get a starting OF(Suzuki? One of the QOs now that Correa is out of play?) to reinforce? Or is that the OF group they think they have 2 starters from?

 

Aside from the LH/RH imbalance, which they don't help at all, this is why I've been pounding the table for a shortstop. The team has a lot of 1-2 WAR guys who are not hard to see as 2-3 WAR guys. What they need is some actual bankable star power. There are currently 3 guys left in FA who project north of 3 WAR: Freeman, Correa, and Story. And among the 2-3 WAR guys, Kris Bryant is the only other one on the positive end of the defensive spectrum.

 

Then, on top of the near term roster construction considerations, you have the farm. The farm is in a good spot, but there is no shortstop anywhere close to MLB.

 

And on top of *that*, the next FA class of shortstops is Trea Turner (surely getting extended), Xander Bogaerts (rapidly becoming unviable defensively at short), and Dansby Swanson (fine).

 

I am absolutely not the guy who throws a temper tantrum every time the Cubs don't sign a guy (I couldn't care less that they missed on Suzuki for instance), but Jed absolutely cannot afford to sit out the good part of the SS market. If he does, then he needs to eat a bad contract or three and build up capital to go trade for a star (probably still at shortstop) next winter.

Andy GOAT

Andy

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

This would be an excellent decision if KB never wants to win a meaningful game ever again. Didn't we literally just end a lockout led by cheapskate weasels like the Rockies' owner with no intention of competing?

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

This would be an excellent decision if KB never wants to win a meaningful game ever again. Didn't we literally just end a lockout led by cheapskate weasels like the Rockies' owner with no intention of competing?

 

Didn't they just trade an elite 3B for pennies on the dollar? This makes no sense. But then again, the Rockies had a regime change at GM and apparently this one is more aggressive about throwing money around to improve

Transmogrified Tiger All-Star

Transmogrified Tiger

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Aside from the LH/RH imbalance, which they don't help at all, this is why I've been pounding the table for a shortstop. The team has a lot of 1-2 WAR guys who are not hard to see as 2-3 WAR guys. What they need is some actual bankable star power. There are currently 3 guys left in FA who project north of 3 WAR: Freeman, Correa, and Story. And among the 2-3 WAR guys, Kris Bryant is the only other one on the positive end of the defensive spectrum.

 

Then, on top of the near term roster construction considerations, you have the farm. The farm is in a good spot, but there is no shortstop anywhere close to MLB.

 

And on top of *that*, the next FA class of shortstops is Trea Turner (surely getting extended), Xander Bogaerts (rapidly becoming unviable defensively at short), and Dansby Swanson (fine).

 

I am absolutely not the guy who throws a temper tantrum every time the Cubs don't sign a guy (I couldn't care less that they missed on Suzuki for instance), but Jed absolutely cannot afford to sit out the good part of the SS market. If he does, then he needs to eat a bad contract or three and build up capital to go trade for a star (probably still at shortstop) next winter.

 

You made me curious how crucial SS is for the best teams in the recent past. In the last 4 complete seasons there's been 18 teams with 95+ wins. Their SS were:

 

2021

Correa: 5.8 fWAR

Adames: 3.9 (100 games)

Franco: 2.5 (70 games)

Seager: 3.7 (100 games)

Crawford: 5.5

 

2019

Adames: 2.9

Swanson: 1.4

Semien: 7.6

Polanco 4.1

Torres (3.6)/Gregorius 0.9

Seager 3.3

Correa 3.1

 

2018

Baez 5.4

Arcia -0.4 (!)

Semien 3.9

Gregorius 4.7

Correa 1.6

Bogaerts 4.9

 

So, you can technically be a great team and not have top end SS production, and there's several guys on this list who were not established stars/elite prospects when they gave this production, but it's really hard to be elite with makeshift SS. Now there's no reasonable outcome where the 2022 Cubs win 95 games, and as such I don't mind the idea that they give Hoerner a shot to see if he maybe pulls a Semien(or at least can look like the best version of someone like Swanson). But if that answer is no, then a whole lot else has to go right, because to your point there is nothing coming from within for a while.

Derwood GOAT

Derwood

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

Reds are really tearing it down. Luis Castillo and Joey Votto pretty much all that's left?

 

Moustakas, Naquin, Senzel….yeah, the Reds ownership sucks bad

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
The North Side Baseball Caretaker Fund
The North Side Baseball Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Cubs community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of North Side Baseball.

Become a Caretaker

  • Member Statistics

    6,793
    Total Members
    13,056
    Most Online
    Kevin OBrien
    Newest Member
    Kevin OBrien
    Joined
×
×
  • Create New...