2021 Offseason Thread

[Transmogrified Tiger]

On a completely different track, I've been thinking about this from Brett yesterday:

 

 

I've generally been ignoring this, wanting to add a Brad Miller or Kyle Seager for 1B/3B and call it a day. But like Brett says, Ian Happ is pretty much the only LH batter of consequence in the org above A Ball. And when you start trying to assemble prospective lineups, you can really feel the lack of a LH thumper. So a LH power hitter probably ought to be moved up quite a bit on the offseason priorities list. Corey Seager at SS would be the obvious ideal, but even Matt Olson or Michael Conforto would really scratch the itch. I also wonder about Joey Gallo. There's been a lot of smoke around him, though I don't know if it's real or if the fan base just hates him and is trying to speak a trade into existence.

 

In general, think this is probably a little overstated. Wisdom had zero split, Schwindel crushed righties, and Willson is no slouch against them either. Getting someone to pull an Ortega(.321/.374/.526, 11 HR in 271 PA) isn’t *easy*, but those types of gambles are always available if you have the playing time to give too.

 

However, if you do want to go that route, the trade name that comes to mind here is Dominic Smith, assuming there’s a match for whatever the Mets clown show is trying to do.

[muntjack]

I get the upside for Dominic Smith, I just can't believe the post-World Series champion Cubs are at the point where they would be lucky to add a -0.5 WAR guy five years after the dynasty was supposed to be just getting underway. Too bad they let that one beloved, LH, WS-hero-guy who destroys baseballs just walk because they didn't think he was worth $10 mil. Behaving like a small market team was frustrating in the 00s, it just blows my mind at this point.

 

Edit: But yeah, Dominic Smith at an appropriate cost would be good.

[TruffleShuffle]

 

[TruffleShuffle]

https://twitter.com/drivelinebases/status/1460305252788301824

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is an interesting thought:

 

Here's some FA with the % of their 2021 starts that went 6+ IP:

 

Gausman: 60% (!)

Stroman: 52%

Kikuchi: 52%

Desclafani: 48%

Rodon: 43%

Wood: 42%

Gray: 41% (weird: 26% in road starts, 57% at home)

Matz: 38%

Cobb: 28%

Richards: 22%

Wacha: 18%

 

This is not perfect, the successful SP will stay in longer, 6 IP is arbitrary(Cobb and Richards had an additional ~15% go 5.2 IP), and different teams have different philosophy(Wacha's number is at least partially the Rays doing their thing), but it's an interesting thought. Especially for someone like Kikuchi whose performance wasn't as strong overall as the others in that tier.

[Rex Buckingham]

Gray: 41% (weird: 26% in road starts, 57% at home)

 

Took a look at Gray's Road starts:

 

6+ innings: Arizona (2); San Diego (3)

 

<6: Pittsburgh (made another start 5 days later, only going 3 at home, and then hit the IL); Washington, Arizona, LAD (3), Houston, SF, Atlanta, Milwaukee

 

so 7 of his 15 road starts were against playoff teams, and all 3 SD starts were prior to the trade deadline, when SD fell apart. So 10 of 15 were against good teams, another was made right before a stint on the injured list

 

probably doesn't really mean anything, but interesting nonetheless

[Bertz]

This is an interesting thought:

 

Here's some FA with the % of their 2021 starts that went 6+ IP:

 

Gausman: 60% (!)

Stroman: 52%

Kikuchi: 52%

Desclafani: 48%

Rodon: 43%

Wood: 42%

Gray: 41% (weird: 26% in road starts, 57% at home)

Matz: 38%

Cobb: 28%

Richards: 22%

Wacha: 18%

 

This is not perfect, the successful SP will stay in longer, 6 IP is arbitrary(Cobb and Richards had an additional ~15% go 5.2 IP), and different teams have different philosophy(Wacha's number is at least partially the Rays doing their thing), but it's an interesting thought. Especially for someone like Kikuchi whose performance wasn't as strong overall as the others in that tier.

 

Re: Gray, this was an interesting look at him. The tl;dr seems to be that for pitchers the 3rd time through the order penalty is that much more severe

 

[Tim]

I find myself trying to avoid doing more actual work this evening, so, here is offseason plan #54:

 

Assumption #1: Try to be at least a fringe playoff team in 2022

Assumption #2: Avoid the QO if at all possible

Assumption #3: Try to spend "smart" in FA

Assumption #4: Roughly $80M to spend, leaving $10M for veteran relievers & backup C

Assumption #5: Universal DH starts in 2022

 

Let's assume we need to fill the following spots: SP, SP, OF, SS, OF, 3B, 1B/DH

 

Top FA not tied to QO (MLBTR rankings with estimated contracts) (bolded are my primary interests):

#4: Kris Bryant (6/$160)

#5: Kevin Gausman (6/$138)

#9: Max Scherzer (3/$120)

#11: Marcus Stroman (5/$110)

#12: Javy Baez (5/$100)

#13: Starling Marte (4/$80)

#15: Kyle Schwarber (4/$70)

#18: Carlos Rodon (1/$25)

#19: Jon Gray (4/$56)

#20: Seiya Suzuki (5/$55)

#21: Anthony Rizzo (3/$45)

#22: Anthony DeSclafani (3/$42)

#24: Avisail Garcia (3/$36)

#25: Jorge Soler (3/$36) -- as an aside, more than 1/3 of the list to this point is recent Cubs

#26: Alex Wood (3/$30)

#27: Steven Matz (3/$27)

#28: Kendall Graveman (3/$27)

#29: Kenley Jansen (2/$26)

#30: Mark Canha (2/$24)

#31: Kyle Seager (2/$24)

#34: Yusei Kikuchi (2/$20)

#35: Eduardo Escobar (2/$20)

#38: Corey Knebel (2/$18)

#39: Alex Cobb (2/$16)

#41: Eddie Rosario (2/$15)

#42: Hector Neris (2/$15)

#43: Jonathan Villar (2/$14)

#44: Mark Melancon (2/$14)

#45: Ryan Tepera (2/$12)

#46: Corey Kluber (1/$12)

#47: Nelson Cruz (1/$12)

#48: Danny Duffy (1/$10)

#49: Yan Gomes (2/$10)

 

Okay - that's a handy list.

 

For starting pitchers, I want to add two pitchers who have been durable, and good to very good, to anchor the rotation. To this end, I'm going to go with Stroman and Gray. That's $22M + $14M to my budget, or just over half the total available. That puts me at $34M more to spend.

 

Ideally, I'm looking for around four position players to create a really deep roster, but three players would probably suffice. I'd really like to bring Schwarber home to provide a bit of lefty thump in the lineup, but the $17.5M is going to make it hard. Kyle Seager is a great fit at $12M. Add on Seiya Suzuki at $11M. That puts me a little over budget at $39.5 for position players.

 

As I went through the options and building out the lineup with those choices, I'm going to end up with most of my proven power on the left side in Happ, Schwarber & Seager. So I'm going to switch from Schwarber to Nelson Cruz at $12M and hit the total $70M budget precisely.

 

That gives me something like:

 

SP: Stroman

SP: Hendricks

SP: Gray

SP: Miley

SP: Alzolay / Steele / Mills / Thompson

 

C: Contreras

1B: Schwindel

2B: Madrigal

3B: Seager

SS: Hoerner

OF: Happ

OF: Suzuki

OF: Wisdom / Davis

DH: Cruz

 

That provides a pretty deep lineup with some solid thump...if Schwindel can provide better than league average production at 1B. If he doesn't, it's probably the cheapest position to fill at the deadline if they're in contention. Also, Rivas can probably come in and provide at least a decent OBP and defense at first base in the short term if Frank tanks. Not to mention Wisdom would be able to cover it once Davis comes up.

 

That team should be in contention at the deadline in a fairly weak NL Central. The rotation should keep them in most games and has depth available with the various options at the fifth spot plus Kilian later in the year. The older rookies from last year are probably the most likely gaps in the lineup, but it's otherwise balanced with contact & power, left & right, etc.

 

I don't think it's likely that we'll fill all the holes through FA. It's also unlikely that they'd sign both Stroman and Gray. It would be much more likely that they'd only sign one of them plus one of the higher risk SP. Given Hendricks' collapse last year, though, if we really want to aim for the playoffs in 2022 we probably need two highly predictable/durable adds to the rotation.

[Tim]

Looking at the pitching again this morning and I might skip Stroman, but add the combination of DeSclafani and Kikuchi. Then go full-on Dodgers with getting pitchers extra rest, doing some piggybacking, and having extra guys for inevitable injuries and performance issues. That gives a ton of SP depth with:

 

Gray

Hendricks

DeSclafani

Miley

Kikuchi

Alzolay

Steele

Mills

Thompson

Kilian

 

I'd be very tempted to see if I could get a lottery ticket in return for Mills, though.

[Tim]

Also, swap out Nelson Cruz for Canha for hitters. Adds more flexibility in the field, fewer 40 year olds on the team, etc.

[JeffH]

Tim, how many slots on a 13-man staff do you imagine they will want to leave open for "optionable" pitchers? Two? Three? That will kind of help identify how many "salaried" free agents they might target.

 

Right now, there are five "unoptionable" pitchers on the 40-man roster and two others who have options who, barring unexpected poor performance, you won't likely choose to option.

 

Alzolay

Hendricks

Miley

Mills

Wieck (kind of an odd case, because he's not so good that you couldn't DFA him in-season in a roster crunch situation)

 

Heuer

Wick

 

That would be 7/13. If you set two spots aside for "optionables", you could sign four "salaried" free agents (maybe two starters and two relievers). If you moved Mills because he doesn't fit what you're trying to do, that would add one more spot for either a youngster with options or another veteran FA. Wieck would possibly be another one, depending on what you wanted to do with him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think that list of assumptions is a pretty useful framework. Maybe it's not 80 million but close enough since there's a lot of amounts we have to guess and some of the difference will come out in the wash.

 

In the specifics, there's zero chance of signing Gray, Desclafani, and Kikuchi. Two of them is probably a stretch unless Kikuchi's market is pretty thin, and Stroman + Gray won't happen either. Too many other teams want pitching for the realities of negotiations and bidding incentives to work out. Or, in the off chance you do pull off that miracle, there's likely a sacrifice on the offensive end of not getting top targets because your time and money went to the pitchers.

 

For DH, I would just as soon sign another outfielder for similar AAV instead of Cruz. That way Schwindel, Wisdom, and your favorite zero cost option of choice(Ortega, Rule 5 pick, NRI, etc) can slot in for 1B + DH at bats, and you likely get better overall output for the same expenditure. It's probably for more years, but if it's someone like Suzuki you're picking up what you hope is a foundational player given his age, and if it's someone like Canha he shouldn't require 4 years and maybe not even 3. EDIT: You beat me to the Canha point!

 

I also don't think we can go into next year with Hoerner penciled in at SS without investing in insurance for him. Doesn't have to be a big FA, maybe Philly would rather pay the difference this year to get Bote for Gregorius or something, but you've got to hedge Hoerner's health and unproven ability to handle the position at the MLB level.

[Tim]

C: Contreras

1B: Schwindel

2B: Madrigal

3B: Seager

SS: Hoerner

OF: Happ

OF: Suzuki

OF: Wisdom / Davis

DH: Cruz

 

That provides a pretty deep lineup with some solid thump...if Schwindel can provide better than league average production at 1B. If he doesn't, it's probably the cheapest position to fill at the deadline if they're in contention. Also, Rivas can probably come in and provide at least a decent OBP and defense at first base in the short term if Frank tanks. Not to mention Wisdom would be able to cover it once Davis comes up.

- The downfall of this team is going to be position player depth. Seager and Wisdom give 3B some depth but SS, 2B (I guess Hoerner makes two), and 1B are on an island. Feels like they’re counting on the starters to be horses but only the 35 YO Seager’s played a full season

I didn't list the backups. Just on the current team, you've got Bote, Alcantara, Rivas, Ortega, Hermosillo, Deichmann.

 

Depth at 1B is not much of an issue as you've got Scwhindel, Wisdom & Rivas all easily capable of playing it. Now...quality depth may be a different question.

Depth at 2B is really not an issue with Madrigal, Hoerner & Bote (and Alcantara)

Depth at SS is a big, stinking, hairy issue with just Hoerner & Alcantara there.

 

I thought about addressing the SS depth, but since I was limiting myself in that post to just looking at the FA w/o qualifying offers, there were absolutely no options anywhere on the list.

[Tim]

Tim, how many slots on a 13-man staff do you imagine they will want to leave open for "optionable" pitchers? Two? Three? That will kind of help identify how many "salaried" free agents they might target.

 

Right now, there are five "unoptionable" pitchers on the 40-man roster and two others who have options who, barring unexpected poor performance, you won't likely choose to option.

 

Alzolay

Hendricks

Miley

Mills

Wieck (kind of an odd case, because he's not so good that you couldn't DFA him in-season in a roster crunch situation)

 

Heuer

Wick

 

That would be 7/13. If you set two spots aside for "optionables", you could sign four "salaried" free agents (maybe two starters and two relievers). If you moved Mills because he doesn't fit what you're trying to do, that would add one more spot for either a youngster with options or another veteran FA. Wieck would possibly be another one, depending on what you wanted to do with him.

Yeah, that's why in the post this morning I talked about moving Mills. I really just wanted to free up a roster spot since he doesn't fit the mold of what I'd be looking for in next year's rotation.

[Tim]

I think that list of assumptions is a pretty useful framework. Maybe it's not 80 million but close enough since there's a lot of amounts we have to guess and some of the difference will come out in the wash.

 

In the specifics, there's zero chance of signing Gray, Desclafani, and Kikuchi. Two of them is probably a stretch unless Kikuchi's market is pretty thin, and Stroman + Gray won't happen either. Too many other teams want pitching for the realities of negotiations and bidding incentives to work out. Or, in the off chance you do pull off that miracle, there's likely a sacrifice on the offensive end of not getting top targets because your time and money went to the pitchers.

 

For DH, I would just as soon sign another outfielder for similar AAV instead of Cruz. That way Schwindel, Wisdom, and your favorite zero cost option of choice(Ortega, Rule 5 pick, NRI, etc) can slot in for 1B + DH at bats, and you likely get better overall output for the same expenditure. It's probably for more years, but if it's someone like Suzuki you're picking up what you hope is a foundational player given his age, and if it's someone like Canha he shouldn't require 4 years and maybe not even 3. EDIT: You beat me to the Canha point!

 

I also don't think we can go into next year with Hoerner penciled in at SS without investing in insurance for him. Doesn't have to be a big FA, maybe Philly would rather pay the difference this year to get Bote for Gregorius or something, but you've got to hedge Hoerner's health and unproven ability to handle the position at the MLB level.

I agree that it was an unrealistic exercise to try and fill every hole through FA. But hey, it was very successful in helping me to avoid working much last night. :)

[Bertz]

Looking at the pitching again this morning and I might skip Stroman, but add the combination of DeSclafani and Kikuchi. Then go full-on Dodgers with getting pitchers extra rest, doing some piggybacking, and having extra guys for inevitable injuries and performance issues. That gives a ton of SP depth with:

 

Gray

Hendricks

DeSclafani

Miley

Kikuchi

Alzolay

Steele

Mills

Thompson

Kilian

 

I'd be very tempted to see if I could get a lottery ticket in return for Mills, though.

 

If the new CBA doesn't include the double hook, I think there's a good argument for doing this. And IMO the argument gets better the more limited Jed's resources are.

 

Personally, I want two starters, and for the lesser of those two to be at least in the Duffy/Kikuchi tier of "probably league average but with some real upside."

 

If the budget doesn't hold for that, then IMO skip right past the Dylan Bundy/Michael Pineda/Tyler Anderson aisle and make that other rotation spot a piggyback deal. I'd much rather do something like Justin Steele + Carlos Martinez than e.g. Dylan Bundy.

[Bertz]

[UMFan83]

 

IF true (big if), that changes the market quite a bit I think. The Tigers will probably get one of them (Correa) but who else is bidding besides their previous teams?

 

-Padres, Phillies and Angels seem to be capped out

-Mets are kind of a mess but are one option

-Red Sox seem to be looking at the second tier (rumored to be interested in Javy).

-White Sox don't really have a need for a SS

-Don't have a solid grasp on what the Cubs or Nationals are going to do. I'd expect the Cubs to get involved if the market is lower than expected

 

Who else? Jays, Cardinals, Giants? Maybe the Mariners or Rangers. All possibilities but I don't see any of those teams except maybe SF offering a gigantic contract the way the Yankees would have.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if Seager ended up back in LA and Semien back in Toronto unless I'm missing some news.

[Cubswin11]

 

IF true (big if), that changes the market quite a bit I think. The Tigers will probably get one of them (Correa) but who else is bidding besides their previous teams?

 

-Padres, Phillies and Angels seem to be capped out

-Mets are kind of a mess but are one option

-Red Sox seem to be looking at the second tier (rumored to be interested in Javy).

-White Sox don't really have a need for a SS

-Don't have a solid grasp on what the Cubs or Nationals are going to do. I'd expect the Cubs to get involved if the market is lower than expected

 

Who else? Jays, Cardinals, Giants? Maybe the Mariners or Rangers. All possibilities but I don't see any of those teams except maybe SF offering a gigantic contract the way the Yankees would have.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if Seager ended up back in LA and Semien back in Toronto unless I'm missing some news.

Why are the Mets an option for a SS? They just paid Lindor a ton and have Mcneil, JD Davis and Villar for infield options as well. Same with the Red Sox, already have Xander at SS who was paid a lot and then some other guys who can play the IF.

[UMFan83]

 

IF true (big if), that changes the market quite a bit I think. The Tigers will probably get one of them (Correa) but who else is bidding besides their previous teams?

 

-Padres, Phillies and Angels seem to be capped out

-Mets are kind of a mess but are one option

-Red Sox seem to be looking at the second tier (rumored to be interested in Javy).

-White Sox don't really have a need for a SS

-Don't have a solid grasp on what the Cubs or Nationals are going to do. I'd expect the Cubs to get involved if the market is lower than expected

 

Who else? Jays, Cardinals, Giants? Maybe the Mariners or Rangers. All possibilities but I don't see any of those teams except maybe SF offering a gigantic contract the way the Yankees would have.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if Seager ended up back in LA and Semien back in Toronto unless I'm missing some news.

Why are the Mets an option for a SS? They just paid Lindor a ton and have Mcneil, JD Davis and Villar for infield options as well. Same with the Red Sox, already have Xander at SS who was paid a lot and then some other guys who can play the IF.

 

I guess I just assumed since they showed interest in resigning Javy and they like to spend money but I forgot that Javy moved to 2B. I guess the Red Sox may be looking at Javy as a 2B as well.

[Bertz]

 

IF true (big if), that changes the market quite a bit I think. The Tigers will probably get one of them (Correa) but who else is bidding besides their previous teams?

 

-Padres, Phillies and Angels seem to be capped out

-Mets are kind of a mess but are one option

-Red Sox seem to be looking at the second tier (rumored to be interested in Javy).

-White Sox don't really have a need for a SS

-Don't have a solid grasp on what the Cubs or Nationals are going to do. I'd expect the Cubs to get involved if the market is lower than expected

 

Who else? Jays, Cardinals, Giants? Maybe the Mariners or Rangers. All possibilities but I don't see any of those teams except maybe SF offering a gigantic contract the way the Yankees would have.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if Seager ended up back in LA and Semien back in Toronto unless I'm missing some news.

 

I think you're only missing the Tigers. Feels like they want to really throw some money around this winter.

 

But yeah, from the rumor mill it seems there are three camps:

 

- Teams specifically into Javy (Red Sox and Mets)

- Teams specifically into Semien (Jays, White Sox)

- Teams broadly into grabbing a shortstop (Tigers, Rangers, Mariners, Cubs and until now Yankees)

 

If the Yankees do indeed go with someone second tier, that's huge for our chances.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

IF true (big if), that changes the market quite a bit I think. The Tigers will probably get one of them (Correa) but who else is bidding besides their previous teams?

 

-Padres, Phillies and Angels seem to be capped out

-Mets are kind of a mess but are one option

-Red Sox seem to be looking at the second tier (rumored to be interested in Javy).

-White Sox don't really have a need for a SS

-Don't have a solid grasp on what the Cubs or Nationals are going to do. I'd expect the Cubs to get involved if the market is lower than expected

 

Who else? Jays, Cardinals, Giants? Maybe the Mariners or Rangers. All possibilities but I don't see any of those teams except maybe SF offering a gigantic contract the way the Yankees would have.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if Seager ended up back in LA and Semien back in Toronto unless I'm missing some news.

 

This is what I said a month ago and I think it's still mostly accurate.

 

you've got 10-12 teams that you can reasonably say *could* land one of them(NYY, TOR, DET, HOU, TEX, NYM, WSN, PHI, CHC, LAD, maybe CIN or MIN). That's a little bigger than the reasonable market for the average top FA, but in this case there's 5 of them, if we treated all their odds equally you're north of a 40% shot. And you could make the case the Cubs have better odds than a decent chunk of the field. CIN/MIN probably aren't going there, TOR, NYM, and LAD have SS so their incentive on this particular group is lower, NYY, LAD, and HOU might have luxury tax concerns depending on the CBA details, plus WSN, DET, and TEX aren't inherently more attractive/competitive than the Cubs.

 

Since then we found out that Cincinnati is definitely not in the mix, and I think the Angels aggressiveness is reason enough for them to be included if only as an outside shot. Everyone else won't be spending or has a quality SS. I also don't trust that NYY is writing off that market already, but regardless there's enough teams to see an easy path to those folks getting signed without the Cubs, but so many SS that they still have decent odds if they choose to play.

[UMFan83]

RE: The Mariners being players during this FA

 

[Post Count Padder]

Kyle Ryan signed with the Cardinals, for all who care about such things.

[Post Count Padder]

Happy for both of them. They earned it. So who are we most likely to lose then? Cam Sanders? Dakota Makes? Seems like we have some interesting enough high minors arms other teams would take a look at.