2021 Offseason Thread

[Guancous]

It’s going to be that kind of offseason.

 

[Bertz]

 

Like Brett says I kind of wonder if this is it for a little while. They have 4 open spots to stash guys away from the Rule 5, and then can clear spots for FAs/trades as needed. I still see Alcantara, Brothers, Nance, and Rucker as fairly painless cuts.

[Cubswin11]

 

 

[Tim]

Conforto & Syndergaard both received QO's.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Some random thoughts after spending a chunk of the weekend looking around at different teams and thinking about player targets:

 

- I’m not sure how feasible it will be to buy prospects via bad contracts. One is that there’s not too many team/player combos in that situation so the pool is only so big, the other is that if the CBA increases incentive to spend(there’s already been a 100M salary floor in a proposal) then the motivation to pay a high player price to dump all but the most toxic deals(Hosmer, Strasburg) goes down. The one exception might be Corbin, if only because Fangraphs made a reasonably compelling case that he’s one adjustment(his stride) from being back to normal, but Washington may not care enough to pay substantially to get rid of him in their current state.

 

- I might be coming around a bit on Story being a good target. He may wind up in the sweet spot where based on most team’s priorities(productivity, age, starpower, length of contract) he’s not quite first choice, but if you believe in the bat at all his floor gets pretty high pretty quick with the defense. In terms of the Cubs though, it does beg the question that if you’re gonna pay 9 figures for a QO FA, why not just go all out for the very best and if you need to pinch pennies then do it down the roster where there’s more variance.

 

- Speaking of shortstops, one name that might work pretty well that I haven’t really heard is Freddy Galvis. Shouldn’t take a long term deal or enormous expenditure given his age, and he’s an excellent complement to the current roster as a LH hitter with pop who plays good defense. I certainly like the idea of Galvis better than Ahmed, who I’ve seen multiple times as a similar bottom of the market solution.

 

- I also wonder if Amed Rosario gets dealt this offseason. He’s a perfectly cromulent player, but the upside isn’t so high for someone who would make 10% of Cleveland’s 2021 payroll, and Cleveland have Top 100 prospects at SS in AAA and AA. Their corner OF situation is pretty dire too, so if they did want to avoid the PR consequences of trading him for prospects, Happ for Rosario is a pretty close match of performance and contract. (Yes the Cubs OF is not exactly full, but easier to fix on the market than SS)

 

- If you want a trade target in a similar mold to Arrieta when he was first acquired, I think Mitch Keller in Pittsburgh might fit the bill. The velocity is there, and he might be a candidate to go bigger on his breaking pitches or simply pick one to throw more. He’s had some small stretches of MLB success, but on the whole the MLB results aren’t there to the point where Pittsburgh might not see much future for him. He’s not arb eligible yet though, and the Pirate rotation is very far from full, so likely an idea that’s a year early.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Oh two others I forgot.

 

- The other “interesting” SS option I saw when perusing proposals on baseballtradevalues was Didi Gregorius, a Phillies fan of all things suggested Gregorius for Bote. You’d definitely be banking on a post-prime rejuvenation with both the bat and the glove, but he does have some track record and the left handed bat would fit. Plus with the player cost being an underwater trade asset, it might be worth considering if you made really heavy investments elsewhere.

 

- I hadn’t realized how well Tsutsugo hit when he got to Pittsburgh, he could be an interesting option for 1B/DH as a LHH and the Cubs would have plenty of PT to offer.

[Bertz]

- I might be coming around a bit on Story being a good target. He may wind up in the sweet spot where based on most team’s priorities(productivity, age, starpower, length of contract) he’s not quite first choice, but if you believe in the bat at all his floor gets pretty high pretty quick with the defense. In terms of the Cubs though, it does beg the question that if you’re gonna pay 9 figures for a QO FA, why not just go all out for the very best and if you need to pinch pennies then do it down the roster where there’s more variance.

 

- I also wonder if Amed Rosario gets dealt this offseason. He’s a perfectly cromulent player, but the upside isn’t so high for someone who would make 10% of Cleveland’s 2021 payroll, and Cleveland have Top 100 prospects at SS in AAA and AA. Their corner OF situation is pretty dire too, so if they did want to avoid the PR consequences of trading him for prospects, Happ for Rosario is a pretty close match of performance and contract. (Yes the Cubs OF is not exactly full, but easier to fix on the market than SS)

 

Yeah I'm eyeing Story at SS as well. He's viewed, and not unfairly, as the #5 guy on the market. At the same, over the last three years he's been worth 12 WAR while none of Correa, Seager, or Baez have cracked 10. Durability is a skill and he's got it despite playing in Coors. If my options are ~$150M for one of Story/Semien/Baez, ~$200M for Seager, or ~$300M for Correa, give me story.

 

Rosario's also a good backup plan at SS. Like you said, he's not particularly exciting, but he's a solid regular and likely available. Cleveland has also shown a willingness to accept quantity in trades. So you might for example be able to make a deal for 3 guys in our 15-30 prospect range rather than any single guy you might really miss.

 

This kind of ties into payroll too. It seems pretty clear there's a lot available, but how much is a lot? If payroll is ~$180M, I think you can fairly easily get all your business done in FA. If it's more like 150-160, you either have to skimp a bit with one or two of your signings, or fill one hole via trade with someone pretty cheap. Trading for Rosario and foregoing the SS sweepstakes would be a good variation of that. To be clear though, there's no reason payroll shouldn't be $180M or more.

[muntjack]

If my options are ~$150M for one of Story/Semien/Baez, ~$200M for Seager, or ~$300M for Correa, give me story.

 

 

I'm trying, but I can't see how Story is the best option if those are the prices. A career 91 wRC+ away from Coors. His defense props him up, resulting in SS Jason Heyward? 6yr/$150? I would be sad.

[Bertz]

 

Either they're fairly aligned on the parameters of an extension or his medicals are real bad.

[Bertz]

If my options are ~$150M for one of Story/Semien/Baez, ~$200M for Seager, or ~$300M for Correa, give me story.

 

 

I'm trying, but I can't see how Story is the best option if those are the prices. A career 91 wRC+ away from Coors. His defense props him up, resulting in SS Jason Heyward? 6yr/$150? I would be sad.

 

Every time a guy leaves Coor's people worry about his home/road splits. When's the last time those fears were actually validated?

[Bertz]

 

No Gray, Matz, Rodon or Kershaw. My guess is the meds on those last two are a lot worse than we know publicly.

[Cubswin11]

Give him whatever it takes with no QO attached.

 

[muntjack]

If my options are ~$150M for one of Story/Semien/Baez, ~$200M for Seager, or ~$300M for Correa, give me story.

 

 

I'm trying, but I can't see how Story is the best option if those are the prices. A career 91 wRC+ away from Coors. His defense props him up, resulting in SS Jason Heyward? 6yr/$150? I would be sad.

 

Every time a guy leaves Coor's people worry about his home/road splits. When's the last time those fears were actually validated?

 

I hear you, and if he was putting up Arenado numbers or something, I might be able to look the other way. He really just looks like Heyward with more Ks to me, albeit at a more important position. The QO is attached as well. I'd rather just let Hoerner have it or find a cheaper solution and spend the $150 on the rotation.

[Gilby]

I could see Jed targeting both Gray and Rodon. I think we're in a position as good as anyone to take a risk on Rodon and to offer a short deal (like 1 or 2 years) at a really high AAV. I can't imagine teams will line up w long term offers and we (theoretically) have a lot of payroll room.

[pitchcs]

I could see Jed targeting both Gray and Rodon. I think we're in a position as good as anyone to take a risk on Rodon and to offer a short deal (like 1 or 2 years) at a really high AAV. I can't imagine teams will line up w long term offers and we (theoretically) have a lot of payroll room.

 

I want nothing to do with Rodon.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Given the stated desire to have more velocity in the rotation and the fact that Hendricks, Miley, and Mills all average under 90 (w/ Thompson and Steele not being plus either), it feels like they pretty much have to get at least one FA with plus velo. Setting that standard at roughly 94 mph and excluding QO guys, that’s:

 

Marcus Stroman

Kevin Gausman

Max Scherzer

Carlos Rodon

Anthony Desclafani

Stephen Matz

Jon Gray

Yusei Kikuchi

 

Matt Harvey

Garrett Richards

Michael Wacha

Wily Peralta

Carlos Martinez

Jose Urena

Mike Foltynewicz

Vince Velasquez

 

I’ve divided those into two groups that are a bit arbitrary, but I think represents a decent point where they could get one from each group, but probably not two of the top group(for several reasons). The trade market is also a possibility of course, though if they can get their favorite from that bottom group on a 2 year deal that might be more worthwhile than the cost to get a SP in trade that’s appreciably better.

[muntjack]

There aren't any names in that 2nd tier that should should keep a Thompson or Steele from a rotation spot, in my opinion. Substantially improving the rotation should be the #1 goal, whether it's 2022 or 2023 they're looking toward. I feel like Zach Davies would head up that tier, so I don't see any improvement at all. If they can't get two from the first tier, I'd much rather see them go big in a deal with Miami or smaller in a deal with the Reds.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There aren't any names in that 2nd tier that should should keep a Thompson or Steele from a rotation spot, in my opinion. Substantially improving the rotation should be the #1 goal, whether it's 2022 or 2023 they're looking toward. I feel like Zach Davies would head up that tier, so I don't see any improvement at all. If they can't get two from the first tier, I'd much rather see them go big in a deal with Miami or smaller in a deal with the Reds.

 

In terms of the 2nd tier v. Thompson or Steele, I don't necessarily disagree, but both of those guys threw less than 85 innings this year after not pitching any pro innings in 2020. They need insurance at the very least because even if performance isn't the issue(far from certain!), you aren't getting a full starter's workload out of them.

 

In terms of 'these guys aren't better than Davies', that might end up being true too, but that's the risk you take on by needing to prioritize velocity. Guys with big fastballs who are also good bets as SP are gonna be in high demand, and assuming you can sign more than one is not a great plan even if that's what they want to do(and given the contracts, they might not). You're then left with either risking a lower velo rotation, taking on performance risk with guys with worse track records, or exploring an uncertain trade market where the costs may not be appetizing either.

[CubinNY]

Brett seems to think that Cubs and/or other "big market" teams will not sign any QO free agents. If he is correct, that leaves a limited pool of smallerish market teams for these guys. If true, the owners have won the chess game and wages will be severely depressed. Edited November 8, 2021 by CubinNY

[Bertz]

I like Andrew Heaney as the "other" SP add. He's not explicitly a velo guy, though 92 for a LHSP is right at average IIRC, but when you add in spin he's a plus stuff guy overall.

 

And then count me in on Gray as well. A rotation of

 

Hendricks

Gray

Miley

Alzolay

Heaney

 

Certainly has some downside risk, but has a very real chance to pop like the Giants and Jays rotations did last year. It also, by virtue of aiming for Gray instead of a tier higher for Stroman or Gausman, leaves a bit more money for the offense.

[CubinNY]

Is anyone counting on Brailyn Márquez at all next year?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Is anyone counting on Brailyn Márquez at all next year?

 

Not really, he's in the pool of guys that if they have a strong year could push into the bullpen by the end of the season, but Marquez having a shoulder injury that(with the pandemic) has meant he has less than 1 pro inning since 2019, which translates to someone you treat as found money if he does look MLB ready at some point in 2022.

[Post Count Padder]

MLBTR did their annual FA predictions for the Top 50. They have us getting Yusei Kikuchi for 2/20....and that's it.

[Outshined_One]

Is anyone counting on Brailyn Márquez at all next year?

 

As a reliever, yes. I could see the Cubs putting him solely in a relief role to build up IP with the intention of stretching him out to starter in 2023/2024 depending on his development is going.

 

As a SP, not so much so for next year. The injury bug bit him this year.

[Bertz]

A number of roster cleanup minor league free agency type moves