2021 Offseason Thread

[Bertz]

 

I was under the impression the Twins were trying to get right up off the mat, but if they want to get out of Donaldson's contract I'd love this. I was hoping for a LH guy to complement Wisdom/Schwindel, but Donaldson, even at his age, is still good

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Named After Maddux appears to be too busy/modest to link his work so I'll do it. He's doing an offseason plan over several parts, today marked the 2nd of 4.

 

Part 1: Building the Offense Part 1 with Wisdom, Ortega, and Schwindel

Part 2: Building the Offense Part 2 with an Ian Happ trade

Part 3: Building the lineup with Match-ups

Part 4: Pitching Targets

 

You should read both because they're very thoughtfully done and I'm just gonna give bullet points for the sake of conversation. His takeaway from the Giants success was their accrual of lots of position players with complementary skillsets, as evidenced by Crawford being the only player with 120+ games at a single position. In trying to emulate that approach, these were the moves:

 

- Sign Kyle Seager to complement Wisdom at 3B

- Sign McCutchen to platoon w/ Ortega in corner OF, pursuing Suzuki instead if posted

- Trade Happ & Carraway for Kiermeier and Taylor Walls

 

I like the idea of a LH corner infielder a lot. I'm less bullish on Schwindel so in my eyes this is more for 1B/3B than 3B/LF, but Seager or Eduardo Escobar would be smart additions.

 

I'm less a fan of McCutchen at this stage in his career, I feel like you can find someone with more upside and/or better defense in a similar pool. To that end, Steamer doesn't see a whole lot of difference between Hermosillo and McCutchen when you layer in likely defense.

 

And lastly, while I'm doubtful that specific trade would happen(to quote the article, "all mock trades are bad, including mine"), I like Kiermeier as a target if he's available and really like Walls' potential fit if the high end of the SS market isn't an option. He's a defense first SS that's blocked by Franco, and while he's not a heavy platoon bat(his splits go back and forth) he does switch hit so he can timeshare well with Hoerner/Madrigal.

[Named After Maddux]

Named After Maddux appears to be too busy/modest to link his work so I'll do it. He's doing an offseason plan over several parts, today marked the 2nd of 4.

 

Part 1: Building the Offense Part 1 with Wisdom, Ortega, and Schwindel

Part 2: Building the Offense Part 2 with an Ian Happ trade

Part 3: Building the lineup with Match-ups

Part 4: Pitching Targets

 

You should read both because they're very thoughtfully done and I'm just gonna give bullet points for the sake of conversation. His takeaway from the Giants success was their accrual of lots of position players

 

I like the idea of a LH corner infielder a lot. I'm less bullish on Schwindel so in my eyes this is more for 1B/3B than 3B/LF, but Seager or Eduardo Escobar would be smart additions.

 

I'm less a fan of McCutchen at this stage in his career, I feel like you can find someone with more upside and/or better defense in a similar pool. To that end, Steamer doesn't see a whole lot of difference between Hermosillo and McCutchen when you layer in likely defense.

 

Thanks TT.

I’ll be honest, McCutchen is probably the weakest part of the entire mock offseason. I really want a lefty masher and I went into it just planning for Hermosillo. I think they bring in another guy, but there are some other options. Manuel Margot would be awesome as well, but then I pivoted from including him when I built the Happ trade and moved Kiermaier off the Rays. A Happ/Margot platoon sounded too good for the Rays to change.

 

And I agree with you in including guys in at 1B. I’m pretty proud of the lineups I’m building based on four pitchers (Castillo, Gray, Miley, and Burnes) the Cubs should see in 2022. It includes mixing in different guys at 1B/DH. Right now Schwindel will get a run (in my eyes), but if you’re bringing in K Seager, a lefty masher, and have Contreras/Madrigal, you have options. I’ve been digging some of the lineups all based on how these hitters handle the pitchers’ primary three pitches using RV/100.

 

The pitchers section will be out, but I’m not sure if I can believe the Jon Gray report at 3-4 years and $9M/year. I may just include a disclaimer there, because I’d be all over it.

[CubinNY]

According to a report in The Athletic, the Cubs will shop Contreras if they can't get an extension worked out. I don't know what that timeline would look like though. I'm guessing by the Winter meetings, but I don't really have a clue. Who they may replace him with is something I'd really like to know. I have no idea who is available. A 34-year-old Yan Gomes or a 34 year old Manny Pina?

[Backtobanks]

According to a report in The Athletic, the Cubs will shop Contreras if they can't get an extension worked out. I don't know what that timeline would look like though. I'm guessing by the Winter meetings, but I don't really have a clue. Who they may replace him with is something I'd really like to know. I have no idea who is available. A 34-year-old Yan Gomes or a 34 year old Manny Pina?

 

Trading Contreras just adds another black hole to a team full of black holes. If you're trading Contreras, you might as well trade Hendricks too and be honest enough to admit that this has been a rebuild since the deadline.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

According to a report in The Athletic, the Cubs will shop Contreras if they can't get an extension worked out. I don't know what that timeline would look like though. I'm guessing by the Winter meetings, but I don't really have a clue. Who they may replace him with is something I'd really like to know. I have no idea who is available. A 34-year-old Yan Gomes or a 34 year old Manny Pina?

 

There isn't going to be a winter meetings in all likelihood, but depending on the progression of CBA talks I think end of 2021 makes a reasonable deadline. If the CBA doesn't get finalized til some time in January and Willson wants to wait until after that dust settles to negotiate(which would be very reasonable on his part), then it gets really tough to negotiate in parallel with a compressed offseason and need a contingency if those negotiations fail. I think you need to know by the time the CBA is agreed upon.

 

As for who they'd replace him with, the Free Agent options are dire, which at least might help the return for Contreras. Unless there's a competing team that wants to give up on a young catcher for more certainty(maybe Padres/Campusano if the Cubs gave more value, or Seattle/Raleigh), I think it's a good candidate for a challenge trade where someone like Bote or Happ goes for the catching equivalent in another org. The only other option I spot from a quick scan is Miami might want to cut bait with Alfaro now that he's in arb years.

[CubinNY]

The Mets have tried and failed to land (at minimum) Theo Epstein, Scott Harris, David Arnold (Brewers), and Mark Shapiro so far...I’d say it warms the heart to see the league’s most relatable owner “struggle,” but nothing really hurts these guys and we’ll eventually read about how Actually neither Lindor or DeGrom or whoever are *that* good, you know?

 

Also nice to see that half that group is from a FO that supposedly fell behind in baseball science

Front office types don't want to work for a meddling owner. The Mets need to find the next Theo circa 2000.

[Cubswin11]

The Mets have tried and failed to land (at minimum) Theo Epstein, Scott Harris, David Arnold (Brewers), and Mark Shapiro so far...I’d say it warms the heart to see the league’s most relatable owner “struggle,” but nothing really hurts these guys and we’ll eventually read about how Actually neither Lindor or DeGrom or whoever are *that* good, you know?

 

Also nice to see that half that group is from a FO that supposedly fell behind in baseball science

They’ve also tried to get an interview with Sterns twice now and I think he said no the first time (when he just GM and then Brewers promoted him to Pres of Baseball Ops). This time the Brewers blocked it since he has the president of Baseball Ops title now and you can block interviews since that’s the highest position/no promotion anymore.

[Backtobanks]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/red-sox-hitting-coach-tim-hyers-leaving-peter-fatse-promoted.html

 

This guy seems like a good candidate for the next hitting coach?

 

The 50-year-old Hyers has spent the past four seasons as hitting coach in Boston and spent the two prior seasons as the Dodgers’ assistant hitting coach. The Sox have been one of the game’s best offensive clubs during that time, and Speier notes that Hyers worked with both Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts to overhaul their approaches at the plate prior to the 2018 campaign.

 

From MLBTR:

Cubs To Hire Greg Brown As Hitting Coach

[Tim]

Brown seems like a good hire. Here's an athletic piece on him: https://theathletic.com/news/cubs-hire-greg-brown-from-rays-as-new-lead-hitting-coach-sources/NolxIlkkYAX2/

 

For those that don't have a subscription, here's a couple parts:

 

How did Brown get the job?

Sharma: The Cubs cast a wide net in their search for a new hitting coach, a position that historically comes with a high turnover rate at Wrigley Field.

 

While hitting coaches in today’s game need to be well-versed on the tech side of coaching — which Brown is — all the expertise is ineffective if it doesn’t come with buy-in from the players. That’s why communication was such a priority with this hire and Brown gets high marks from people around the game in that area.

 

Quickly rising over his two years in the Rays organization, Brown was a sought-after coach this offseason and interviewed for a handful of jobs, including hitting coach for both Cleveland and Texas.

 

How Brown fits in Cubs' front-office overhaul

Sharma: The hire gives the Cubs another voice from a highly thought of organization. Carter Hawkins, the recently hired general manager, offers a fresh perspective after spending 14 seasons with Cleveland, though that organization has struggled to develop hitters and his background is rooted more in player development.

 

Ehsan Bokhari was hired away from Houston to be the Cubs assistant general manager and has a history of success leading research and development departments and working across a front office to help identify talent in various areas.

I like that they are getting some new blood into the org from outside that Boston tree associated with Theo. Each of these guys seem like good gets. I think Hawkins is the one that's least interesting to me of the three, but that is probably my own biases at play.

[Bertz]

Brown seems like a good hire. Here's an athletic piece on him: https://theathletic.com/news/cubs-hire-greg-brown-from-rays-as-new-lead-hitting-coach-sources/NolxIlkkYAX2/

 

For those that don't have a subscription, here's a couple parts:

 

How did Brown get the job?

Sharma: The Cubs cast a wide net in their search for a new hitting coach, a position that historically comes with a high turnover rate at Wrigley Field.

 

While hitting coaches in today’s game need to be well-versed on the tech side of coaching — which Brown is — all the expertise is ineffective if it doesn’t come with buy-in from the players. That’s why communication was such a priority with this hire and Brown gets high marks from people around the game in that area.

 

Quickly rising over his two years in the Rays organization, Brown was a sought-after coach this offseason and interviewed for a handful of jobs, including hitting coach for both Cleveland and Texas.

 

How Brown fits in Cubs' front-office overhaul

Sharma: The hire gives the Cubs another voice from a highly thought of organization. Carter Hawkins, the recently hired general manager, offers a fresh perspective after spending 14 seasons with Cleveland, though that organization has struggled to develop hitters and his background is rooted more in player development.

 

Ehsan Bokhari was hired away from Houston to be the Cubs assistant general manager and has a history of success leading research and development departments and working across a front office to help identify talent in various areas.

I like that they are getting some new blood into the org from outside that Boston tree associated with Theo. Each of these guys seem like good gets. I think Hawkins is the one that's least interesting to me of the three, but that is probably my own biases at play.

 

Yeah, the new blood is very refreshing. Until Kantrovitz, basically every hire came either from under a Theo disciple or from Texas, which is a FO ultimately led by Jon Daniels but where several of the lieutenants were Theo guys.

 

It shouldn't have taken until year 8 to start diversifying, but adding high level guys from Oakland, Cleveland, Houston, and Tampa in quick succession is probably about as effective a way to make up for lost time as possible.

[Named After Maddux]

Brown seems like a good hire. Here's an athletic piece on him: https://theathletic.com/news/cubs-hire-greg-brown-from-rays-as-new-lead-hitting-coach-sources/NolxIlkkYAX2/

 

For those that don't have a subscription, here's a couple parts:

 

How did Brown get the job?

Sharma: The Cubs cast a wide net in their search for a new hitting coach, a position that historically comes with a high turnover rate at Wrigley Field.

 

While hitting coaches in today’s game need to be well-versed on the tech side of coaching — which Brown is — all the expertise is ineffective if it doesn’t come with buy-in from the players. That’s why communication was such a priority with this hire and Brown gets high marks from people around the game in that area.

 

Quickly rising over his two years in the Rays organization, Brown was a sought-after coach this offseason and interviewed for a handful of jobs, including hitting coach for both Cleveland and Texas.

 

How Brown fits in Cubs' front-office overhaul

Sharma: The hire gives the Cubs another voice from a highly thought of organization. Carter Hawkins, the recently hired general manager, offers a fresh perspective after spending 14 seasons with Cleveland, though that organization has struggled to develop hitters and his background is rooted more in player development.

 

Ehsan Bokhari was hired away from Houston to be the Cubs assistant general manager and has a history of success leading research and development departments and working across a front office to help identify talent in various areas.

I like that they are getting some new blood into the org from outside that Boston tree associated with Theo. Each of these guys seem like good gets. I think Hawkins is the one that's least interesting to me of the three, but that is probably my own biases at play.

 

Yeah, the new blood is very refreshing. Until Kantrovitz, basically every hire came either from under a Theo disciple or from Texas, which is a FO ultimately led by Jon Daniels but where several of the lieutenants were Theo guys.

 

It shouldn't have taken until year 8 to start diversifying, but adding high level guys from Oakland, Cleveland, Houston, and Tampa in quick succession is probably about as effective a way to make up for lost time as possible.

 

Don't forget the Cubs minor league hitting coordinator is from the Dodgers as well. He started in 2021.

[CubinNY]

Let's get this party started!!!!!!!!!!

 

Which FA are the Cubs going to be attached to who they ultimately lose out on, but the offer was "competitive". Let's go!

[UMFan83]

Let's get this party started!!!!!!!!!!

 

Which FA are the Cubs going to be attached to who they ultimately lose out on, but the offer was "competitive". Let's go!

 

I'm not even excited about FA yet because I'm assuming we won't do anything until the CBA is in place, and that probably wont be until like February

[The_Achiever]

Let's get this party started!!!!!!!!!!

 

Which FA are the Cubs going to be attached to who they ultimately lose out on, but the offer was "competitive". Let's go!

 

I'm not even excited about FA yet because I'm assuming we won't do anything until the CBA is in place, and that probably wont be until like February

 

It's the perfect excuse not to do anything. I expect they'll sign two #3 or 4 type starting pitchers and call it an offseason.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

 

1) Barnhart would've been a nice backup C option to have around. His 7.5 million option is a bit steep, but for the next-to-free price I wouldn't have been upset about adding him.

 

2) As some folks have noticed, there's some strong selling sentiment in that quote from Krall. Moustakas would be a good fit for the current roster as long as you assume his 2021 struggles are mostly due to injury, and his monthly splits would back that up. If you could get the Reds to pick up a chunk of his 2/38 (2/32 CBT value) to clear the rest, then that'd be a reasonably compelling option for LH corner IF.

[Cubswin11]

Let's get this party started!!!!!!!!!!

 

Which FA are the Cubs going to be attached to who they ultimately lose out on, but the offer was "competitive". Let's go!

 

I'm not even excited about FA yet because I'm assuming we won't do anything until the CBA is in place, and that probably wont be until like February

 

It's the perfect excuse not to do anything. I expect they'll sign two #3 or 4 type starting pitchers and call it an offseason.

No way they do that. They may be greedy and cheap assholes but they aren’t dumb and not gonna run an As, Brewers, Rays, etc type payroll. They know they need to try and compete and I expect them to be plenty active and spend decently and add talent. But yeah, it may take until like March with the CBA.

[Cubswin11]

Love him as a target

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Is there a theory as to why he turned it down the player option? I understand the appeal, but at the same time he's been a 1 win starter in MLB and 12 million is a lot to turn down. Especially since he's only 30 so any bounce back this year wouldn't jeopardize the length of his next deal.

[cl smooth]

[Bertz]

Love him as a target

 

 

On his own merits I think Kikuchi is a fantastic buy-low candidate. As I've said enough so that everyone's probably sick of hearing it, I'm a firm believer that HR/FB rates are basically noise. That said adding Kikuchi to this roster is kind of quintupling down on this theory?

[soccer10k]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Must be nice for Giants fans to have one of their best players spend his whole career with the team and not be dumped for spare parts at the deadline during a down year for the team.

[Bertz]

Let's get this party started!!!!!!!!!!

 

Which FA are the Cubs going to be attached to who they ultimately lose out on, but the offer was "competitive". Let's go!

 

I'm one of the more optimistic folks about this winter, but this is 1000% going to happen.

 

One of the good things about the current Cubs roster is the positional flexibility. Aside from Madrigal, pretty much everyone of consequence could shift around a bit. So while there's certain things you'd really like to see this winter, like someone to push Hoerner off of shortstop, Jed doesn't *have* to commit to any specific position aside from SP. He just needs to bring in as many Wins as possible. So even if this ends up a a good offseason, there's still going to be at least one fun name Jed loses out on last minute. That's just gonna happen when you're in on a large cross-section of guys.

[Backtobanks]

Let's get this party started!!!!!!!!!!

 

Which FA are the Cubs going to be attached to who they ultimately lose out on, but the offer was "competitive". Let's go!

 

I'm one of the more optimistic folks about this winter, but this is 1000% going to happen.

 

One of the good things about the current Cubs roster is the positional flexibility. Aside from Madrigal, pretty much everyone of consequence could shift around a bit. So while there's certain things you'd really like to see this winter, like someone to push Hoerner off of shortstop, Jed doesn't *have* to commit to any specific position aside from SP. He just needs to bring in as many Wins as possible. So even if this ends up a a good offseason, there's still going to be at least one fun name Jed loses out on last minute. That's just gonna happen when you're in on a large cross-section of guys.

 

The motto of the Cubs could be "Jack of all trades, master of none."

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So if my Baseball Reference navigation is correct, the best hitter in the Cuban league is a left handed infielder that just turned 22 and is now a free agent