New CBA negotiations

[squally1313]

I like reading facebook comments from the people opposed to universal DH. Its like, tell me that you voted for Trump twice without mentioning politics.

I like reading facebook comments from people that can't articulate a coherent or original thought so they make false equivalencies in the hopes of sounding provocative. It's like telling me you sister and mother is the same person without stating it.

 

:lol:

I mean, you made a terribly thought out comment.

[CubinNY]

Some perspective on dates if they can ever come to an agreement.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-lockout-why-spring-training-likely-wont-start-on-time-and-when-opening-day-would-be-in-serious-jeopardy/

 

The owners seem to be willfully trying to kill the game off. They reportedly made a proposal to trim the minor leagues by approximately 30 players/team. They don't seem to understand that the minor leagues are R&D. I really don't understand it.

[Bertz]

What's interesting to me is that there's several of those that mark an inflection point where who feels the pain more changes drastically.

 

Right now it's almost all owners. They're losing revenue on ticket sales for spring training and the regular season, things like MLB.tv are losing subscribers, and the TV networks are all struggling to sell ad slots. That said, no actual inventory has been lost, so they can presume they'll make most of that money back if a deal comes together soon. Though we're only a few more days away from actual ST games being permanently lost, which while small would be permanent revenue.

 

Once we hit March 1st and real games are at stake things flip. Players are inherently going to feel every lost game more than owners.

 

Around April 1st there's a big financial cliff for the owners. Most of the local TV deals have ~140 game minimums, drop below that level, and there will be contractual clawbacks and such, and it'll be a huge financial loss. I do wonder how much heat the owners start taking from the TV networks prior to this. They aren't scared of the players but I'd believe they're scared of the real life Logan Roys of the world.

 

After that, it goes back to being worse for the players until we hit the point where the playoffs are in jeopardy.

 

I still tend to think this is just a game of brinkmanship. I doubt either side has much of an appetite to lose real games and real money. The owners think the players will crack in the next 2-3 weeks, and they're probably right. But if the players hold firm I imagine the owners will finally start negotiating, and part of the deal will include some scheduling gymnastics to make up for the lost games with double headers and such.

[UMFan83]

What's interesting to me is that there's several of those that mark an inflection point where who feels the pain more changes drastically.

 

Right now it's almost all owners. They're losing revenue on ticket sales for spring training and the regular season, things like MLB.tv are losing subscribers, and the TV networks are all struggling to sell ad slots. That said, no actual inventory has been lost, so they can presume they'll make most of that money back if a deal comes together soon. Though we're only a few more days away from actual ST games being permanently lost, which while small would be permanent revenue.

 

Once we hit March 1st and real games are at stake things flip. Players are inherently going to feel every lost game more than owners.

 

Around April 1st there's a big financial cliff for the owners. Most of the local TV deals have ~140 game minimums, drop below that level, and there will be contractual clawbacks and such, and it'll be a huge financial loss. I do wonder how much heat the owners start taking from the TV networks prior to this. They aren't scared of the players but I'd believe they're scared of the real life Logan Roys of the world.

 

After that, it goes back to being worse for the players until we hit the point where the playoffs are in jeopardy.

 

I still tend to think this is just a game of brinkmanship. I doubt either side has much of an appetite to lose real games and real money. The owners think the players will crack in the next 2-3 weeks, and they're probably right. But if the players hold firm I imagine the owners will finally start negotiating, and part of the deal will include some scheduling gymnastics to make up for the lost games with double headers and such.

 

I wonder if the 2020 season plays into the players cracking sooner than later. They lost a lot of money because of 2020 and unlike the owners their earning potential is limited to their at most ~15 year playing career. Of course they stand to gain money if the owners cave on certain isues but I'm sure there's a point where the losses outweigh the potential gains and that is probably what the owners are waiting for.

[CubinNY]

What's interesting to me is that there's several of those that mark an inflection point where who feels the pain more changes drastically.

 

Right now it's almost all owners. They're losing revenue on ticket sales for spring training and the regular season, things like MLB.tv are losing subscribers, and the TV networks are all struggling to sell ad slots. That said, no actual inventory has been lost, so they can presume they'll make most of that money back if a deal comes together soon. Though we're only a few more days away from actual ST games being permanently lost, which while small would be permanent revenue.

 

Once we hit March 1st and real games are at stake things flip. Players are inherently going to feel every lost game more than owners.

 

Around April 1st there's a big financial cliff for the owners. Most of the local TV deals have ~140 game minimums, drop below that level, and there will be contractual clawbacks and such, and it'll be a huge financial loss. I do wonder how much heat the owners start taking from the TV networks prior to this. They aren't scared of the players but I'd believe they're scared of the real life Logan Roys of the world.

 

After that, it goes back to being worse for the players until we hit the point where the playoffs are in jeopardy.

 

I still tend to think this is just a game of brinkmanship. I doubt either side has much of an appetite to lose real games and real money. The owners think the players will crack in the next 2-3 weeks, and they're probably right. But if the players hold firm I imagine the owners will finally start negotiating, and part of the deal will include some scheduling gymnastics to make up for the lost games with double headers and such.

 

I wonder if the 2020 season plays into the players cracking sooner than later. They lost a lot of money because of 2020 and unlike the owners their earning potential is limited to their at most ~15 year playing career. Of course they stand to gain money if the owners cave on certain isues but I'm sure there's a point where the losses outweigh the potential gains and that is probably what the owners are waiting for.

I don't know. That pressure is always constant. I read an article a few days ago that said the average career length is down from around 4 years to 3 years and the average time to break into the majors has increased. All the changes have benefited the owners, funneled players from the minor leagues to college, etc. It think they know they have to make a stand.

[Bertz]

 

Not entirely clear if this is a misunderstanding or inside info

[Transmogrified Tiger]

MLB playoff format is set fans gonna love it - 7 playoff teams per league

 

gonna stop you right there pal

[Irrelevant Dude]

But if the players hold firm I imagine the owners will finally start negotiating, and part of the deal will include some scheduling gymnastics to make up for the lost games with double headers and such.

And they will be the garbage 7 inning games, using the excuse of a reduced spring training schedule to keep the 7 inning games and extra-innings baserunner in place.

 

 

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

[Bertz]

 

[Andy]

It seems like the players are basically "horsefeathers you"-ing the owners with their latest offer, which consisted of conceding only most two-plus service time players getting arbitration instead of all of them but bumping up the pre-arb bonus pool in exchange (and the two sides were already very far apart on the size of said bonus pool).

 

Can't remotely blame them, of course, but it definitely means Opening Day is not happening as scheduled.

[UMFan83]

I'm sure I'll get over it, but I have to say that having 7 teams per league make the playoffs geniunely makes me less of a baseball fan.

[Andy]

I'm sure I'll get over it, but I have to say that having 7 teams per league make the playoffs geniunely makes me less of a baseball fan.

That sucks ass. No other way to put it.

[Rob]

I'm sure I'll get over it, but I have to say that having 7 teams per league make the playoffs geniunely makes me less of a baseball fan.

 

Yeah, this is awful. Lots more watching the Cubs shoot for 82 wins and luck in the playoffs.

[UMFan83]

I'm sure I'll get over it, but I have to say that having 7 teams per league make the playoffs geniunely makes me less of a baseball fan.

 

Yeah, this is awful. Lots more watching the Cubs shoot for 82 wins and luck in the playoffs.

 

I can imagine Tom thinking "hell yeah all I have to do is have Jed build an 82 win team and I still get playoff revenue!"

[UMFan83]

The only thing cool thought I had about this playoff proposal (while still being largely stupid) is if they turn the team selection process into a live TV show and they interviewed the chosen team's manager directly after they are selected. Lets ramp up the animosity.

 

Also who would actually be choosing the opponents? The GM? Manager? I can see fans ripping them to shreds if they pick their opponent and lose.

[WrigleyField 22]

The only thing cool thought I had about this playoff proposal (while still being largely stupid) is if they turn the team selection process into a live TV show and they interviewed the chosen team's manager directly after they are selected. Lets ramp up the animosity.

 

Also who would actually be choosing the opponents? The GM? Manager? I can see fans ripping them to shreds if they pick their opponent and lose.

Oh God all the, "the dispresct fueled the 7th best team to upset the 2 seed" takes...

[Bertz]

 

[CubinNY]

 

I very clearly don't understand this well, but I'm thinking that this would only increase the opportunity for service time manipulation by the owners?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

I very clearly don't understand this well, but I'm thinking that this would only increase the opportunity for service time manipulation by the owners?

 

Probably the opposite. Right now there is some possible manipulation of potential Super Twos, it's not as common as what happens to rookies but it can happen when you only need to keep a player from getting very close to (but not over) 3 years of service time. In this scenario it's flipped, instead of there being very few Super Twos there's a lot more, which means in order to keep these players out of arbitration you need to keep them over 2 years of service time but not much over 2 years, which is a lot harder to do. It's the difference in needing to keep someone off the 25 man roster for a ~2 months over 3 years to needing to keep them off for ~5 months over 3 years.

[Banedon]

[soccer10k]

The only way we’re getting 162 games at this point is if Bob Nightengale tweets out that there’s no way they play 162 games this year.

[Cubswin11]

[Bertz]

 

Teams and players met twice today. Met for an hour, caucased for 3, met for another hour.

[Bertz]

 

Feels like the plan is to get all of the little stuff either agreed to or to get it where the next concession will be the last one (e.g. owners suggest 5 team lottery, players suggest 6, next time it's conceded it's settled), and then do some horse trading with the CBT and Super 2 levels at the very end.

 

My guess is we get one more walkout later this week, a weekend of the sky is falling discourse, and then this thing gets banged out mid next week.

[Cubswin11]