So...Now What?

[Backtobanks]

My assumption is we're in for another true tank. If reality is somehow immediately going hard to compete again in 2022, I could actually live with the occassional mid-year tank sell off every 4-5 years. Kimbrell and Chaffin were the only non-rentals they sold off right?

 

If it's a one year tank... Lame. If it's a multi year tank, im done with em.

 

This team is 3 years from being good unless PTR decides to spend big and I betting that's not going to happen.

There are at least two reasonable paths in this thread alone to being good or better next year. TT's doesn't even involve the team spending big.

 

Good or better than this embarrassment of a team that's on the field now? I agree that certainly doesn't take much effort or money. Marquez, Davis, and Steele look like the only prospects that will be in the ML sooner than 3 years from now and while all of them look like "good" prospects, the real "possible star" prospects are at least 3 years away. I don't think Hoyer and/or PTR is going to spend a ton of money this offseason because there's just too many holes to fill. After acquiring a couple of mid-tier FAs and seeing how Steele, Davis, etc. along with the rest of the 2022 roster perform, they might have a better idea of when the "possible star" prospects will make the team.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

 

This team is 3 years from being good unless PTR decides to spend big and I betting that's not going to happen.

There are at least two reasonable paths in this thread alone to being good or better next year. TT's doesn't even involve the team spending big.

 

Good or better than this embarrassment of a team that's on the field now? I agree that certainly doesn't take much effort or money. Marquez, Davis, and Steele look like the only prospects that will be in the ML sooner than 3 years from now and while all of them look like "good" prospects, the real "possible star" prospects are at least 3 years away. I don't think Hoyer and/or PTR is going to spend a ton of money this offseason because there's just too many holes to fill. After acquiring a couple of mid-tier FAs and seeing how Steele, Davis, etc. along with the rest of the 2022 roster perform, they might have a better idea of when the "possible star" prospects will make the team.

You don’t think Davis is a “star” prospect?

[Tim]

My Master Plan - v1.1.0

Stars & Scrubs Edition

Good in 2022; Great in 2023

 

Remainder of 2021:

 

Sit down with Ross and let him know that his job the rest of this year is not to win baseball games. His job the rest of this year is to evaluate players for 2022. That may mean ruffling some veteran feathers. It may mean living with some heartache as inexperienced relievers blow leads.

 

Get playing time for the potentially interesting position players in MLB / at AAA to see what we see. This means that Duffy, Bote, Heyward will need to sit on a regular basis. I'd probably release Duffy to make room on the 40 man to evaluate guys who may have a future with the team.

 

- Happ (can he be fixed again?)

- Wisdom

- Alcantara

- Deichmann

- Schwindel

- Hermosillo

- Rivas

- Fargas

 

Evaluate SP to see how many rotation spots we need to fill. Limit Alzolay's innings and have him working on his changeup & cutter to lefties at every chance.

- Alzolay

- Mills

- Thompson

- Steele

 

Check out options in the bullpen:

- Rodriguez

- Leeper

- Rucker

- Nance

- Morgan

- Megill

- Abbott

- Mekkes

 

Assets going into offseason 2021:

 

Significant players in bold

 

Position Players:

C - Contreras, Higgins

1B - Rivas, Schwindel

2B - Madrigal, Bote

3B - Wisdom

SS - Hoerner, Alcantara

LF - Hermosillo, Deichmann

CF - Happ, Ortega, Fargas

RF - Heyward

 

There's two players there that I'd be very happy going into next year with as a starter: Contreras & Madrigal. I'd love to get Hoerner into a Zobrist-type role to spell multiple positions. It would be great if 1-2 positions could be filled through this year's tryouts.

 

Starting Pitchers:

Hendricks, Mills, Alzolay, Steele, Thompson

 

We're going to need at least 2, likely 3, reliable starters to compete in '22.

 

Relief Pitchers:

Wieck, Wick, Heuer, Brothers, Rodriguez, Rucker, Maples, Adam, Nance, Winkler, Megill, Abbott, etc

 

I'd actually be fine if we didn't add anyone from outside the org to the relief corps in the offseason.

 

 

Summary of Needs:

 

In varying degrees of need: SP, LF, SP, 1B, CF, SS, 3B, RF, SP

 

2021-22 Free Agent Options

SS: Correa, Seager, Story, Baez, Semien

OF: Conforto, Castellanos, Rosario, Garcia, Canha, Marte

Top Tier SP: Kershaw, Stroman, Gausman, Syndergaard, Gray, Rodon

Mid Tier SP: Duffy, Smyly, Pineda, Paxton, Bundy, Rodgriguez, Ray, Quintana, Heaney, Archer, Matz

Old Tier SP: Greinke, Verlander, Scherzer, Morton, Cueto, Kluber

 

Actions to Take

 

Trades:

Trade Willson for prospects this winter

 

I just don't trust catchers bodies as they get into their 30's. I'd love to extend Willson for 2-3 years, but I think he will want (and get) a longer contract than that. There will be no decent catchers available as FA, so I'm hoping that we can get a decent return for him. This will be our last trade to restock the farm

 

 

Free Agents:

C: Sign Mike Zunino for 2/$10

 

Zunino's market should be pretty limited, so I don't think it would take any more than a 1-2 year contract at $5M

 

SS: Sign Seager for 6/$180

 

I'm hoping Seager's market doesn't go too crazy given the injuries and the years since he's been a 6-win player. He becomes one of the cornerstones of the next great Cubs team

 

OF: Sign Conforto for 4/$80

 

With his severly down year, I don't think it will break the bank to sign Conforto. Very good upside to the signing, though

 

SP: Sign Gray for 5/$125

 

I've no idea what kind of contract he'll command. He's the option that I'd prefer towards the top end of the market, though

 

SP: Sign Matz for 2/$20

 

2022 MLB Team:

2B - Madrigal ($1)

SS - Seager ($30)

LF - Conforto ($20)

1B - Schwindel/Rivas ($1)

3B - Wisdom ($1)

CF - Happ ($4.5)

C - Zunino ($5)

RF - Heyward ($23)

 

Bench - Hoerner, Bote, catcher, best of 2021 tryouts ($5)

 

SP: Hendricks ($14)

SP: Gray: ($25)

SP: Matz: ($10)

SP: Alzolay ($1)

SP: Mills / Steele / Thompson ($3)

 

RP: cast of millions ($10)

 

That team can easily be afforded from a payroll perspective at a total of 153.5. That's right - the payroll going into the offseason is so low that we can sign Seager, Conforto, Gray, Matz and more and still only be at $153. This is a bit unrealistic in how many guys we need to acquire, but not outrageously so. And even if I've underestimated the contracts, there's plenty of room on the payroll to go higher and still leave room under the cap for the following offseason.

 

It's not a dominant team, but it can compete and win in the NL Central. It takes a stars and scrubs approach to 2022 with the idea of replacing the scrubs in 2023 to go from good to great. It also keeps the powder dry with the prospects to use them when we are truly going for it in 2023. The younger prospects should be nearing or in the upper minors by then, and we'll have added another high draft class & large international budget. We will hopefully have some high end guys knocking on the door here plus a lot of assets to fill out the club through trades.

[Tim]

 

This team is 3 years from being good unless PTR decides to spend big and I betting that's not going to happen.

There are at least two reasonable paths in this thread alone to being good or better next year. TT's doesn't even involve the team spending big.

 

Good or better than this embarrassment of a team that's on the field now? I agree that certainly doesn't take much effort or money. Marquez, Davis, and Steele look like the only prospects that will be in the ML sooner than 3 years from now and while all of them look like "good" prospects, the real "possible star" prospects are at least 3 years away. I don't think Hoyer and/or PTR is going to spend a ton of money this offseason because there's just too many holes to fill. After acquiring a couple of mid-tier FAs and seeing how Steele, Davis, etc. along with the rest of the 2022 roster perform, they might have a better idea of when the "possible star" prospects will make the team.

Anyone currently in a full season league can easily reach MLB within three years. There are a bunch of potentially useful players across A, A+ and AA for us right now that could be average or better big leaguers. In fact, there are way too many for me to bother listing here - we have one of the very deepest farms in the league right now. And there are a few guys in there that could be really good if things break right.

 

Hell, even guys like Preciado, Caissie or Alcantara could be in MLB by the end of three years if they develop quickly.

 

 

--- edited to add

 

I think I misread your post. I thought it was saying that it would be more than three years, but you were saying it would be that third year when high impact guys could arrive. Let me list a few guys that could be contributors or stars that will reach by then:

 

1) Davis has the capability to be a star level player. A .900 OPS from a capable CF is a star.

2) Diechmann can definitely be a contributor. If he can figure out how to unlock his power while also making contact (instead of one at a time), he could be more.

3) Amaya could be a really good starting catcher by 2023. He's not likely a star unless he hits for more power, but a solid defensive catcher who gets on base is pretty valuable.

4) Morel could be contributing as soon as next year in a utility role.

5) Rivas can hit righties in MLB right now. If he can play the OF well enough and learn to hit lefties, he can be a good MLB starter.

6) Strumpf could be a contributor by end of next year, let alone in 2023

 

That's just the hitters at AA and AAA. There are a bunch of interesting relievers at those levels, too. There are also a number of SP who could be up by the end of 2023, including Kilian in AA who could be up by the end of next season. Even a guy like Jensen could be up by the end of next year even though he's down in A+ right now.

[Backtobanks]

There are at least two reasonable paths in this thread alone to being good or better next year. TT's doesn't even involve the team spending big.

 

Good or better than this embarrassment of a team that's on the field now? I agree that certainly doesn't take much effort or money. Marquez, Davis, and Steele look like the only prospects that will be in the ML sooner than 3 years from now and while all of them look like "good" prospects, the real "possible star" prospects are at least 3 years away. I don't think Hoyer and/or PTR is going to spend a ton of money this offseason because there's just too many holes to fill. After acquiring a couple of mid-tier FAs and seeing how Steele, Davis, etc. along with the rest of the 2022 roster perform, they might have a better idea of when the "possible star" prospects will make the team.

Anyone currently in a full season league can easily reach MLB within three years. There are a bunch of potentially useful players across A, A+ and AA for us right now that could be average or better big leaguers. In fact, there are way too many for me to bother listing here - we have one of the very deepest farms in the league right now. And there are a few guys in there that could be really good if things break right.

 

Hell, even guys like Preciado, Caissie or Alcantara could be in MLB by the end of three years if they develop quickly.

 

Those are the "possible star" prospects that I said are 3 years away.

[Backtobanks]

There are at least two reasonable paths in this thread alone to being good or better next year. TT's doesn't even involve the team spending big.

 

Good or better than this embarrassment of a team that's on the field now? I agree that certainly doesn't take much effort or money. Marquez, Davis, and Steele look like the only prospects that will be in the ML sooner than 3 years from now and while all of them look like "good" prospects, the real "possible star" prospects are at least 3 years away. I don't think Hoyer and/or PTR is going to spend a ton of money this offseason because there's just too many holes to fill. After acquiring a couple of mid-tier FAs and seeing how Steele, Davis, etc. along with the rest of the 2022 roster perform, they might have a better idea of when the "possible star" prospects will make the team.

You don’t think Davis is a “star” prospect?

 

I think Davis could be a solid ML player, but not necessarily a "star" (which is fine).

[Tim]

 

Good or better than this embarrassment of a team that's on the field now? I agree that certainly doesn't take much effort or money. Marquez, Davis, and Steele look like the only prospects that will be in the ML sooner than 3 years from now and while all of them look like "good" prospects, the real "possible star" prospects are at least 3 years away. I don't think Hoyer and/or PTR is going to spend a ton of money this offseason because there's just too many holes to fill. After acquiring a couple of mid-tier FAs and seeing how Steele, Davis, etc. along with the rest of the 2022 roster perform, they might have a better idea of when the "possible star" prospects will make the team.

Anyone currently in a full season league can easily reach MLB within three years. There are a bunch of potentially useful players across A, A+ and AA for us right now that could be average or better big leaguers. In fact, there are way too many for me to bother listing here - we have one of the very deepest farms in the league right now. And there are a few guys in there that could be really good if things break right.

 

Hell, even guys like Preciado, Caissie or Alcantara could be in MLB by the end of three years if they develop quickly.

 

Those are the "possible star" prospects that I said are 3 years away.

Yeah - I misread your post initially and went back and added this to my response:

 

I think I misread your post. I thought it was saying that it would be more than three years, but you were saying it would be that third year when high impact guys could arrive. Let me list a few guys that could be contributors or stars that will reach by then:

 

1) Davis has the capability to be a star level player. A .900 OPS from a capable CF is a star.

2) Diechmann can definitely be a contributor. If he can figure out how to unlock his power while also making contact (instead of one at a time), he could be more.

3) Amaya could be a really good starting catcher by 2023. He's not likely a star unless he hits for more power, but a solid defensive catcher who gets on base is pretty valuable.

4) Morel could be contributing as soon as next year in a utility role.

5) Rivas can hit righties in MLB right now. If he can play the OF well enough and learn to hit lefties, he can be a good MLB starter.

6) Strumpf could be a contributor by end of next year, let alone in 2023

 

That's just the hitters at AA and AAA. There are a bunch of interesting relievers at those levels, too. There are also a number of SP who could be up by the end of 2023, including Kilian in AA who could be up by the end of next season. Even a guy like Jensen could be up by the end of next year even though he's down in A+ right now.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Let’s call this series of moves ‘the gang tries loan sharking’

 

Assumptions:

 

- No huge CBA changes, in particular to the LT dynamic. DH is added

- payroll can stay flat to 2021

 

 

- Extend Willson, 15M AAV

 

- PTBNL-worthy stuff to San Diego for Hosmer and Gore

 

 

This isn’t new ground but I’m a stickler for MLB readiness if I’m taking on Hosmer’s poison pill. Gore is in potentially a liminal space where he apparently isn’t physically busted, but there’s enough weirdness and enough SP depth in San Diego that they’d part with his huge upside in order to gain huge flexibility to be able to make real upgrades

 

 

- PTBNL-worthy stuff to LAA, LAA prospects to TB, Chirinos and Justin Upton to Cubs

 

 

The Angels are arguably in a more dire financial position than the Padres, and they’ll jump at the chance to offload Upton’s 21 million LT value. Tampa gets to cash in on an injured pitcher who hasn’t shown top of the rotation upside, but has been above average and has 3 years of control to be worth buying off via Upton. Upton himself fits the roster nicely since he’s a perfectly cromulent short sided platoon corner OF, which complements all the LH corner OF already here. A final note: with the news that Glasnow was discussed I’d at least see if that’s potentially an option instead of Chirinos but I wouldn’t add significant assets to do it.

 

 

- Happ to KC for Lucius Fox

 

 

I struggle with how to reconcile Happ and what value he might have. If Davis weren’t right there with Hoerner also a CF possibility I would be fine running him back, but the chance to clear his salary and get a controlled role player with some remaining upside that fits the roster is a good balance. KC is forever half trying to compete, has no CF to speak of, and Fox is blocked by Mondesi and Merrifield. He’s not a lock down defender and hits better from the right side, but he could still mature and helps raise the floor for the infield since we’re not spending big on one of the SS.

 

 

- Sign Vince Velasquez or similar FA SP to a prove it deal, 1 year 8M plus team or mutual option

 

 

Between all the current SP who are unlikely to be ready to start 30 games next year plus Gore and Chirinos, we could use some more innings spoken for. The mutually beneficial option is to give a free agent a pillow contract as long as there’s at least some chance for 2023 payoff(mutual option or more expensive team option). Other options besides Velasquez could be Martin Perez, Andrew Heaney, etc.

 

 

- Sign Conforto, 4/60

 

 

I’m not sure how to gauge Conforto’s market. He’s a corner OF having a crummy year that isn’t fast or a plus defender, but he’s young for the FA class, has a good amount of past success, and his skill set shouldn’t age poorly.

 

 

- Grab a couple buy-low RP and a backup C, 7M total

 

Contreras/FA

Hosmer/Madrigal/Hoerner/Wisdom/Bote/Fox

Conforto/Ortega/Deichmann/Upton/Heyward (Davis by EOY)

 

The main downsides here are a lack of starpower and weakness at CF. Davis is the obvious solution, and in the meantime you hope that either Fox hits enough to let you flex Hoerner to CF, or you get a not-disastrous defensive performance from one of the other OF(helped by Wrigley’s shallow alleys). Alternatively, replace Ortega, Heyward, or Deichmann with a zero cost placeholder CF.

 

Hendricks/Velasquez/Chirinos/Alzolay/AAAA (Gore + maybe Kilian by EOY)

All the org arms + a couple FA off the pile

 

This is where we’ve invested our chips, and if the gambles pan out you have an excellent rotation with depth to ensure the bullpen stays strong.

 

This team should set up nicely to continue to improve in 2022 and in 2023, and Upton’s salary(and possibly Velasquez) drops after next year to give you a nice chunk of change to work with that doesn’t require backfilling big production.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Eh, I guess I don't acknowledge the nuance in the way you guys use "retool" and "rebuild". To me thats corporate speak to sell us on revamping the team. In 2014 we weren't "rebuilding" either, we were acquiring long term assets! It becomes a rebuild if you have bad luck or do a bad job and everything takes long than it's supposed to. I think the Cubs should be able to be Yankees like competitive very soon, so I am not seeing the difference.

 

Best I can see, the list of long-term assets acquired in the 2014 offseason to appear for the 2015 Cubs were Chris Coghlan, Tsuyoshi Wada, and Jason Hammel (1 year deal, then e-signed the following offseason)

[SouthSideRyan]

For the people who think a full on strip down and tank for multiple years is coming, where do you think payroll ends up then? Because nothing historically points to them spending less then ~$150 mil or so and that gives them nearly ~$100 mil to spend this offseason. TT is right, I think they’ve done the calculus that they need to be around there to maximize the other profit centers they’ve invested in around the team. Becoming the Marlins, Royals, Cleveland, Brewers, etc isn’t happening.

 

They spent less than 150M on opening day payroll this year in a season they were ostensibly trying to win baseball games. The ghouls who own the team and their biblical losses [expletive] does not give me optimism. We don't need to run a bottom 5 payroll for their plan to suck.

[Backtobanks]

There are at least two reasonable paths in this thread alone to being good or better next year. TT's doesn't even involve the team spending big.

 

Good or better than this embarrassment of a team that's on the field now? I agree that certainly doesn't take much effort or money. Marquez, Davis, and Steele look like the only prospects that will be in the ML sooner than 3 years from now and while all of them look like "good" prospects, the real "possible star" prospects are at least 3 years away. I don't think Hoyer and/or PTR is going to spend a ton of money this offseason because there's just too many holes to fill. After acquiring a couple of mid-tier FAs and seeing how Steele, Davis, etc. along with the rest of the 2022 roster perform, they might have a better idea of when the "possible star" prospects will make the team.

Anyone currently in a full season league can easily reach MLB within three years. There are a bunch of potentially useful players across A, A+ and AA for us right now that could be average or better big leaguers. In fact, there are way too many for me to bother listing here - we have one of the very deepest farms in the league right now. And there are a few guys in there that could be really good if things break right.

 

Hell, even guys like Preciado, Caissie or Alcantara could be in MLB by the end of three years if they develop quickly.

 

 

--- edited to add

 

I think I misread your post. I thought it was saying that it would be more than three years, but you were saying it would be that third year when high impact guys could arrive. Let me list a few guys that could be contributors or stars that will reach by then:

 

1) Davis has the capability to be a star level player. A .900 OPS from a capable CF is a star.

2) Diechmann can definitely be a contributor. If he can figure out how to unlock his power while also making contact (instead of one at a time), he could be more.

3) Amaya could be a really good starting catcher by 2023. He's not likely a star unless he hits for more power, but a solid defensive catcher who gets on base is pretty valuable.

4) Morel could be contributing as soon as next year in a utility role.

5) Rivas can hit righties in MLB right now. If he can play the OF well enough and learn to hit lefties, he can be a good MLB starter.

6) Strumpf could be a contributor by end of next year, let alone in 2023

 

That's just the hitters at AA and AAA. There are a bunch of interesting relievers at those levels, too. There are also a number of SP who could be up by the end of 2023, including Kilian in AA who could be up by the end of next season. Even a guy like Jensen could be up by the end of next year even though he's down in A+ right now.

 

Davis could be a star, but I don't believe he will be a ,900 OPS ML CF. Those numbers make him a first ballot HOFer.

[Tim]

TT - I like the Upton move.

 

It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with the luxury tax in the new CBA and how it drives behavior.

[Andy]

 

Eh, I guess I don't acknowledge the nuance in the way you guys use "retool" and "rebuild". To me thats corporate speak to sell us on revamping the team. In 2014 we weren't "rebuilding" either, we were acquiring long term assets! It becomes a rebuild if you have bad luck or do a bad job and everything takes long than it's supposed to. I think the Cubs should be able to be Yankees like competitive very soon, so I am not seeing the difference.

 

Best I can see, the list of long-term assets acquired in the 2014 offseason to appear for the 2015 Cubs were Chris Coghlan, Tsuyoshi Wada, and Jason Hammel (1 year deal, then e-signed the following offseason)

I assume Bearded is referring to the Samardzija/Hammel trade in the middle of 2014 rather than any off-season moves.

[Bertz]

For this offseason I see several roster specific goals, things I want to see them do to win games, and then a few longer term org goals nodding to the topic of sustained success Within each bucket, I've ordered them in how I view their inportance

 

Roster Goals

1. Bring in a superstar. It makes most sense for this to be a shortstop, but doesn't have to be

2. Bring in a RHH outfielder to balance out all the lefties

3. Bring in a playoff caliber SP

4. Bring in a second SP, the quality of whom can depend on how much Steele/Thompson show from on

5. Bring in a LHH infielder

6. Bring in a LH setup man

7. Backup Catcher

 

Org Goals

1. Keep the bulk of your powder dry for next year

2. Clean up the 40 man situation

3. Don't block this first wave of prospects

 

Below is my current specific plan, but really as long as we check the above boxes I'm not married to names

 

- Sign Corey Seager (~$30M per year)

- Sign Tommy Pham (2/32ish akin to Michael Brantley)

- Trade for Zac Gallen (league minimum in '22, under control through '25)

- Sign Andrew Heaney (1/10)

- Sign Andrew Chafin (2/14)

- Trade for Dominic Smith (arb eligible, likely 5ish?)

- Backup catcher (5ish)

 

On $ Matters:

 

 

Salary wise, this is about a ~75M outlay, which does I believe leave some room to match this year's payroll. And of course with a monster contract like Seager you can be creative to increase short term flexibility. If there's a lot more money available, I look at extending Willson, Gallen, and/or Adbert, probably in that order. If there's much less money, then first obviously horsefeathers PTR, but go bargain bin for Heaney and Chafin alternatives

 

On trades/prospects:

 

 

Looking at the farm, I see a lot groupings of similar guys, and so I try to make sure I don't decimate any group, but rather try to deal a guy from several different ones:

 

The MLB ready starters - Mills/Steele/Thompson

The crown jewel teens - Preciado/Alcantara/Caissie/Hernandez

The power OFers - Canario/Nwogu/Velazquez

The MLB ready relievers - Rodriguez/Leeper/Roberts

The teen shortstops - Made/Howard/Santana/Mena

The close infielders - Morel/Strumpf/Rivas

The injured guys - Franklin/Roederer/PCA/R. Thompson

 

Brennen's off the table, obviously. And I'd also try to stay away from a few guys who don't have a good replacement in house like Kilian, Marquez or Amaya. But otherwise dealing from these areas of depth allows you to skim some off the top of the farm without blowing any part of it up.

 

The Gallen trade is gonna HURT. I imagine one guy from four or five of these different groups (and for sure one of the blue chip teens)? But he's immediately our best starter and cheap and under control. A foundational piece. Dom Smith should be fairly cheap though. He really ought to be a 1B/DH, while the Mets already have Alonso and JD Davis. I imagine he can be had primarily for some of our 40 man crunch depth.

 

Lineup:

 

LF - Pham

SS - Seager

C - Willson

1B - Smith

3B - Wisdom

2B - Madrigal

CF - Happ

DH - Hoerner (like TT said, he doesn't actually DH but this is a nod to his everyday position fluid nature)

RF - Deichman

 

BN - Ortega, Bote, Heyward, Backup C

 

Thoughts:

 

The lineup lacks a huge bat, but I think it's strong up and down, and pretty well balanced. It's akin to the Rays and A's of recent vintage. I don't think all four LHH OFers stay on the roster long, one gets dumped when Brennen Davis is ready. Defensively, it's probably about average, and gets a nice bump after Brennen comes up.

 

SP - Gallen, Kyle, Heaney, Adbert, Mills/Steele/Thompson

 

Thoughts:

 

Like the lineup, this rotation has someone out there I like every day, but lacks a true stopper. This rotation is a big bet on dong problems not being sticky from season to season. If these guys all pitch closer to their 2021 xFIP numbers, it's a fantastic group. If the 2020 dong issues carry over, it's probably still okay, but just okay.

 

Overall, I think this is a playoff team, but in the Oakland A's mold where there's quality in spots 1-26 but only 2-3 impact guys. I expect though that this can be a good springboard to 2023. We should have a better idea of which non-Davis guys on the farm look like stars at that point. We should also be positioned financially to get another star in FA next offseason, and probably be positioned with the farm to make it two. The thought is very much for this to be 2007 or 2015, and then really bring the fireworks afterwards.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This led me to discover that Gallen was #18 in the Fangraphs trade value list(just ahead of Brandon Woodruff), which 1) good grief Fangraphs, Dave Cameron does not work there anymore, and 2) does illustrate my question, which is why would the Diamondbacks trade him?

[Bertz]

This led me to discover that Gallen was #18 in the Fangraphs trade value list(just ahead of Brandon Woodruff), which 1) good grief Fangraphs, Dave Cameron does not work there anymore, and 2) does illustrate my question, which is why would the Diamondbacks trade him?

 

My thought was that teams that lose 100 games tend to be willing to let their pitching go rather than risk them going kaboom before they're good again. That had me eying Gallen as well as the Marlins' front three.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This led me to discover that Gallen was #18 in the Fangraphs trade value list(just ahead of Brandon Woodruff), which 1) good grief Fangraphs, Dave Cameron does not work there anymore, and 2) does illustrate my question, which is why would the Diamondbacks trade him?

 

My thought was that teams that lose 100 games tend to be willing to let their pitching go rather than risk them going kaboom before they're good again. That had me eying Gallen as well as the Marlins' front three.

 

That makes sense, I definitely have looked over that Marlins rotation a couple times since they have the pattern of selling off arb pitchers. I do think this type of thing generally happens more to pitchers who have hit arb given the expense and declining trade value as FA approaches, but especially given that Gallen isn't some DeGrom/Scherzer monster, I could see him going for the right combination of upside and quantity from your trade asset buckets.

 

More broadly, I really struggle with the idea of trades for pitchers in general because of this. They avoid the expense and age of the FA market, but knowing who could realistically be dealt is a big challenge(hence my gravitation to habitual sellers like the Florida teams), and I'm hesitant to deploy a bunch of new found farm system depth for one right off the bat.

[Bertz]

This led me to discover that Gallen was #18 in the Fangraphs trade value list(just ahead of Brandon Woodruff), which 1) good grief Fangraphs, Dave Cameron does not work there anymore, and 2) does illustrate my question, which is why would the Diamondbacks trade him?

 

My thought was that teams that lose 100 games tend to be willing to let their pitching go rather than risk them going kaboom before they're good again. That had me eying Gallen as well as the Marlins' front three.

 

That makes sense, I definitely have looked over that Marlins rotation a couple times since they have the pattern of selling off arb pitchers. I do think this type of thing generally happens more to pitchers who have hit arb given the expense and declining trade value as FA approaches, but especially given that Gallen isn't some DeGrom/Scherzer monster, I could see him going for the right combination of upside and quantity from your trade asset buckets.

 

More broadly, I really struggle with the idea of trades for pitchers in general because of this. They avoid the expense and age of the FA market, but knowing who could realistically be dealt is a big challenge(hence my gravitation to habitual sellers like the Florida teams), and I'm hesitant to deploy a bunch of new found farm system depth for one right off the bat.

 

Yeah, there's not a lot of obviously available guys, and the ones who are fairly obvious are mostly under control for just 2022. German Marquez, Sean Manaea, etc. So I'm assuming Gallen can be had, but if Sandy Alcantara feels more realistic that's fine too.

 

Better insight into financials or the new CBA also makes a world of difference. If I knew what payroll projects out to the next few years, I might be more comfortable doing Seager/Stroman via FA and knocking out the lower list items via trade. Or maybe the qualifying offer gets killed, and Rodon or Ray become more attractive options. (Like you mentioned a week or so back teams don't love signing two QO guys in one offseason, and they're both getting one). I think the market is going to look a lot different December 1st than it does now.

[Gilby]

I really want Seager. He won't be a SS for some of the contract but I don't care. Without any actual data to back it up, I think he would have a Castellanos-ian jump in dongs going from a pitchers park to Wrigley. And the K rate well under 20%.

[Little Slide Rooter]

 

Though I'd prefer that Ricketts sell to someone with deeper pockets, I cant get behind the hate for him. Without Ricketts, there's no Theo, the catalyst to the greatest stretch of Cubs baseball of our lifetime, and perhaps the most thrilling 3 innings in baseball history (need I elaborate?)

 

Granted, they've been dropping the ball ever since, but I think I'm at peace with it.

[UMFan83]

 

Though I'd prefer that Ricketts sell to someone with deeper pockets, I cant get behind the hate for him. Without Ricketts, there's no Theo, the catalyst to the greatest stretch of Cubs baseball of our lifetime, and perhaps the most thrilling 3 innings in baseball history (need I elaborate?)

 

Granted, they've been dropping the ball ever since, but I think I'm at peace with it.

 

:roll:

[17 Seconds]

 

Though I'd prefer that Ricketts sell to someone with deeper pockets, I cant get behind the hate for him. Without Ricketts, there's no Theo, the catalyst to the greatest stretch of Cubs baseball of our lifetime, and perhaps the most thrilling 3 innings in baseball history (need I elaborate?)

 

Granted, they've been dropping the ball ever since, but I think I'm at peace with it.

 

they do not get credit for allowing a hall of fame executive to pick them, give me a horsefeathering break. theo came.to the cubs because of the opportunity it represented, not because of the horsefeathering ricketts.

[CubinNY]

I was just thinking, I’m definitely getting MLB The Show 2022 so I can build the Cubs from the ground up.

[UMFan83]

Are we still willing to consider Javy back? I don’t think he’s endearing himself to the Mets even before his injury and the team is quickly sliding out of contention. I could see the Mets not wanting to make a big investment in his during the offseason even with Lindor advocating for him.

 

With Seager, Story and Correa available, hes not likely to be any teams top choice and is likely going to be having teams waiting out his market after the big guys sign. I think there is still mutual interest in Javy coming back, possibly more than Rizzo or Bryant, so the stars could align, assuming we want to go that route over being another team going after the top 3 SS

[d_money]

Hard pass on Javy. Time to move on.