So...Now What?

[Backtobanks]

SS is not an obvious hole until you see what Hoerner can do.

 

He's a 24 year old 2B who has never not been on the IL. You cannot wait to see what such a player can do when there are better options readily available.

 

He came up as a SS and moved because of Baez. The "better options" are outside PTR's budget plan for 2022 in my opinion.

[Backtobanks]

 

This is mostly bad. "Superstar" and "SS" are pretty obvious holes, right? How long do you want to wait to see if our prospect list turns out a superstar? Davis next year, and then....Ed Howard, all of 21 years old in 2023, currently getting owned in single A? The even younger Preciado/Hernandez/Caissie/Made group? And if those don't hit just press the reset button again?

 

We have $38m in guaranteed salary next year, another $15m in arbitration for Willy, Ian, Ortega, Wieck, and then the league minimum for Mills, Wick, Heuer, Madrigal, Adbert, Hoerner, Steele, Wisdom, and whoever else. Call it, what, $60m?

 

How does signing 34 year old Tommy Pham do anything in your plan as your top offensive move? Go get someone you know is good, gives you a shot of being good soon, and will still be good when those cheap prospects finally make it up. Then figure out how much money you have left and go from there.

 

SS is not an obvious hole until you see what Hoerner can do. Signing a superstar SS for $30 million per year still leaves this team a 3rd place finisher waiting for 2024. Meanwhile, we have almost no pitching (besides Hendricks) and probably very little to count on for the next few years. As for Pham, I'm more than open to finding another RH LF that PTR can fit into his austerity budget. Also, I mentioned trading for Mancini/Voit to help the offense. I'm looking at many/most of these players as placeholders until 2024. As for your comment about the Preciadp/Hernandez/Caissie group not making it, Hoyer will be fired if they don't because this is where he has put all of his faith into.

 

If you truly believe there's nothing we can do until 2024, why are we wasting money and prospects on dudes who will be 34, 33, and 32 on opening day 2024, and then spending 'big money' on Stroman (will be a month shy of 33) or Rodon (31)? You've got $80m coming off the books, you've got Heyward in 2 years, and you aren't scheduling any big paydays for your internal guys anytime remotely soon. Use the freed up cash, get the team to project to .500, and reassess next June on if you want to wait for the teenagers or use them to get big league talent.

 

There is no way PTR is going to spend enough money this offseason to get the Cubs to .500. The Cubs were struggling to play .500 when they still had Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Kimbrel.

[17 Seconds]

 

SS is not an obvious hole until you see what Hoerner can do. Signing a superstar SS for $30 million per year still leaves this team a 3rd place finisher waiting for 2024. Meanwhile, we have almost no pitching (besides Hendricks) and probably very little to count on for the next few years. As for Pham, I'm more than open to finding another RH LF that PTR can fit into his austerity budget. Also, I mentioned trading for Mancini/Voit to help the offense. I'm looking at many/most of these players as placeholders until 2024. As for your comment about the Preciadp/Hernandez/Caissie group not making it, Hoyer will be fired if they don't because this is where he has put all of his faith into.

 

If you truly believe there's nothing we can do until 2024, why are we wasting money and prospects on dudes who will be 34, 33, and 32 on opening day 2024, and then spending 'big money' on Stroman (will be a month shy of 33) or Rodon (31)? You've got $80m coming off the books, you've got Heyward in 2 years, and you aren't scheduling any big paydays for your internal guys anytime remotely soon. Use the freed up cash, get the team to project to .500, and reassess next June on if you want to wait for the teenagers or use them to get big league talent.

 

There is no way PTR is going to spend enough money this offseason to get the Cubs to .500. The Cubs were struggling to play .500 when they still had Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Kimbrel.

 

bryant/rizzo/baez were only worth like a combined 5-6 wins with the cubs this season. madrigal already makes up for what baez was doing.

[Backtobanks]

 

If you truly believe there's nothing we can do until 2024, why are we wasting money and prospects on dudes who will be 34, 33, and 32 on opening day 2024, and then spending 'big money' on Stroman (will be a month shy of 33) or Rodon (31)? You've got $80m coming off the books, you've got Heyward in 2 years, and you aren't scheduling any big paydays for your internal guys anytime remotely soon. Use the freed up cash, get the team to project to .500, and reassess next June on if you want to wait for the teenagers or use them to get big league talent.

 

There is no way PTR is going to spend enough money this offseason to get the Cubs to .500. The Cubs were struggling to play .500 when they still had Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Kimbrel.

 

bryant/rizzo/baez were only worth like a combined 5-6 wins with the cubs this season. madrigal already makes up for what baez was doing.

 

So now we just need to replace Bryant, Rizzo, and Kimbrel to get back to a sub-.500 team.

[muntjack]

Our starter's ERAs: 4.04 4.19 5.00 5.16 6.88 ...... That wouldn't fly in the steroid era. They need to prioritize starting pitching.

[d_money]

Our starter's ERAs: 4.04 4.19 5.00 5.16 6.88 ...... That wouldn't fly in the steroid era. They need to prioritize starting pitching.

The scary thing is that I think they’ve made a concerted effort at developing SP and are still the bottom of the barrel.

 

Leadership and talent evaluators need to be replaced with more competent people.

[17 Seconds]

 

There is no way PTR is going to spend enough money this offseason to get the Cubs to .500. The Cubs were struggling to play .500 when they still had Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Kimbrel.

 

bryant/rizzo/baez were only worth like a combined 5-6 wins with the cubs this season. madrigal already makes up for what baez was doing.

 

So now we just need to replace Bryant, Rizzo, and Kimbrel to get back to a sub-.500 team.

 

it's like posts just go in one ear and out the other

[CyHawk_Cub]

Well, once one has decided that Nico Hoerner is any kind of solution for a team bereft of impact bats, no subsequent observation should surprise.

[Backtobanks]

Well, once one has decided that Nico Hoerner is any kind of solution for a team bereft of impact bats, no subsequent observation should surprise.

 

Once one has decided that the biggest problem this Cubs team has is Nico Hoerner playing SS, no subsequent observation is necessary. The Brewers are running away with the division and have one of the best records in the ML bereft of impact bats. Of course, they have outstanding pitching and a smart manager, and front office.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Well, once one has decided that Nico Hoerner is any kind of solution for a team bereft of impact bats, no subsequent observation should surprise.

 

Once one has decided that the biggest problem this Cubs team has is Nico Hoerner playing SS, no subsequent observation is necessary. The Brewers are running away with the division and have one of the best records in the ML bereft of impact bats. Of course, they have outstanding pitching and a smart manager, and front office.

Nice strawman. But coming from the guy who swore Kimbrel would net very little in a mid-season trade, not shocking.

[Bertz]

Our starter's ERAs: 4.04 4.19 5.00 5.16 6.88 ...... That wouldn't fly in the steroid era. They need to prioritize starting pitching.

 

The pitching is really hard to evaluate. The problem isn't hard to identify, it's dongs. It's clearly dongs, it's obvious on paper, it's obvious in games, it's dongs. So many dongs. The question is, how much of the team's dong problem is bad luck and how much of it is real? I tend to think that dongs (at least as a share of fly balls) are more luck than not (from a pitcher's POV), but there are some reasons to think it might unfortunately be real for this team specifically.

 

- Kyle has never had a dong problem before, so it's most likely that this was a fluke. Early in the season he was throwing a high (for him) proportion of his pitches middle-middle, and so there was a reason for it. In addition to him throwing a higher % of his pitches right down the pipe, hitters were swinging at them more. Now though, his proportion of mistake pitches (Meatball % in Baseball Savant) is back down to his career levels, and the dong issues have subsided. I would guess he was tipping his pitches early in the year, and has since resolved that? I think it was a (sizable) bump in the road that's behind him now, but with him being nearly the softest tosser in the league you can't say that definitively

 

- Mills doesn't have a dong problem, but he did last year. That's another signal that these things can be flukey, even for soft tossers where you could argue conceptually why they might give up extra dongs

 

- Arrieta and Williams while they were here, and Steele in the early going, are also giving up a ton of dongs. Maybe it's a Hottovy thing?

 

- Alzolay has had one hell of a dong issue, basically all year. His HR/FB rate is worst in the league this year among guys with 50+ IP. Adbert to me is the biggest question going into the offseason (Happ is the only guy close). If Alzolay's dong problem is a mirage, he's a #2/#3 starter. If it's not he's a #4/#5. That's a huge swing for deciding where to allocate resources on the offseason shopping list. There's some evidence pointing each way:

 

Why it might be Real:

- Alzolay has a high Meatball % via Baseball Savant, (pitches that end up middle/middle)

- He throws a ton of sliders and sinkers, two pitches especially prone to platoon issues (his dong issues have been with LHBs specifically)

- He issued a lot of walks previously and has improved in that regard substantially this year. Maybe he's throwing more strikes than his command should actually call for (laying it in there essentially)

- The Statcast numbers do not say it's been a bunch of wallscrapers, he has as many dongs as his batted ball data says he should expect to have

 

Reasons it could be a fluke

- Literally no one in the league gives up dongs at this rate, or even close. Since the start of 2016 (the Juiced Ball era), the highest HR/FB for anyone with 300+ innings is Yusei Kikuchi at 19.1%. Alzolay this year is at 23.5%, a couple standard deviations worse than the worst true-talent mark in the league

- Other guys with a high Meatball % don't necessarily have a dong problem. Walker Buehler for instance

- Plenty of guys have had a disaster dong season and bounced immediately back. Look no further than Yu Darvish for us in 2019

 

It's a big call for Jed & co. to make. Easy enough for me to say "xFIP uber alles" but the front office needs to obviously be far more thorough. Maybe the reason you can't find other guys who give up that many homers is because teams don't let those guys keep taking the bump. But if Kyle and Adbert (and Steele) don't really have a dong problem, and odds are that they don't, there's actually a pretty solid base for a rotation here. It needs a frontline guy regardless, but it's possible (likely?) that and a little bit of added depth is plenty.

[Backtobanks]

Well, once one has decided that Nico Hoerner is any kind of solution for a team bereft of impact bats, no subsequent observation should surprise.

 

Once one has decided that the biggest problem this Cubs team has is Nico Hoerner playing SS, no subsequent observation is necessary. The Brewers are running away with the division and have one of the best records in the ML bereft of impact bats. Of course, they have outstanding pitching and a smart manager, and front office.

Nice strawman. But coming from the guy who swore Kimbrel would net very little in a mid-season trade, not shocking.

 

It was a good trade, but Madrigal doesn't exactly qualify for your description of an "impact bat".

[squally1313]

 

Once one has decided that the biggest problem this Cubs team has is Nico Hoerner playing SS, no subsequent observation is necessary. The Brewers are running away with the division and have one of the best records in the ML bereft of impact bats. Of course, they have outstanding pitching and a smart manager, and front office.

Nice strawman. But coming from the guy who swore Kimbrel would net very little in a mid-season trade, not shocking.

 

It was a good trade, but Madrigal doesn't exactly qualify for your description of an "impact bat".

 

But Trey Mancini and his .319 OBP from first base does? There's other ways of doing this besides waiting for the next KB to come along, and we should explore those options because that doesn't happen very often. Brennan Davis is the best prospect we have, by a pretty considerable margin, and he's stroking out 28% of the time in AA, without KBs elite walk rate, power, or ability to play a premium position. Sitting around assuming him and a bunch of teenagers are all going to blossom into the next Cubs juggernaut is A. dumb and out of touch with reality, which is that prospects break, and B. the type of strategy that teams like the Pirates try to do because they have no other options.

 

Madrigal and Hoerner are well on their way to becoming dirt cheap, productive major league baseball players. They will never be the three and four hitters of a division winning team, but they allow you to go find and pay for those types of hitters. Go get Correa or Seager, spend another $30m a year on a couple starters, and see where you're at.

[jersey cubs fan]

he's stroking out 28% of the time in AA

 

He should not be playing, the lousy Cubs medical staff is going to get these guys killed.

[CubinNY]

Adbert needs to develop a pitch to induce lefties into soft contact or he's a middle reliever/swingman vs. a righthand dominant team.

[Backtobanks]

Nice strawman. But coming from the guy who swore Kimbrel would net very little in a mid-season trade, not shocking.

 

It was a good trade, but Madrigal doesn't exactly qualify for your description of an "impact bat".

 

But Trey Mancini and his .319 OBP from first base does? There's other ways of doing this besides waiting for the next KB to come along, and we should explore those options because that doesn't happen very often. Brennan Davis is the best prospect we have, by a pretty considerable margin, and he's stroking out 28% of the time in AA, without KBs elite walk rate, power, or ability to play a premium position. Sitting around assuming him and a bunch of teenagers are all going to blossom into the next Cubs juggernaut is A. dumb and out of touch with reality, which is that prospects break, and B. the type of strategy that teams like the Pirates try to do because they have no other options.

 

Madrigal and Hoerner are well on their way to becoming dirt cheap, productive major league baseball players. They will never be the three and four hitters of a division winning team, but they allow you to go find and pay for those types of hitters. Go get Correa or Seager, spend another $30m a year on a couple starters, and see where you're at.

 

I'm all for sign top FAs and making this team competitive sooner rather than later, but Hoyer (and PTR) seems determined to take a 2-3 year timeout to wait for our top prospects before breaking the bank. PTR has already determined to put the money into the betting complex and his Hall of Fame honoring his family. He's learned from the master (Trump) to hide problems (the team) with smoke and mirrors so that nobody is looking at the problem.

[squally1313]

 

It was a good trade, but Madrigal doesn't exactly qualify for your description of an "impact bat".

 

But Trey Mancini and his .319 OBP from first base does? There's other ways of doing this besides waiting for the next KB to come along, and we should explore those options because that doesn't happen very often. Brennan Davis is the best prospect we have, by a pretty considerable margin, and he's stroking out 28% of the time in AA, without KBs elite walk rate, power, or ability to play a premium position. Sitting around assuming him and a bunch of teenagers are all going to blossom into the next Cubs juggernaut is A. dumb and out of touch with reality, which is that prospects break, and B. the type of strategy that teams like the Pirates try to do because they have no other options.

 

Madrigal and Hoerner are well on their way to becoming dirt cheap, productive major league baseball players. They will never be the three and four hitters of a division winning team, but they allow you to go find and pay for those types of hitters. Go get Correa or Seager, spend another $30m a year on a couple starters, and see where you're at.

 

I'm all for sign top FAs and making this team competitive sooner rather than later, but Hoyer (and PTR) seems determined to take a 2-3 year timeout to wait for our top prospects before breaking the bank. PTR has already determined to put the money into the betting complex and his Hall of Fame honoring his family. He's learned from the master (Trump) to hide problems (the team) with smoke and mirrors so that nobody is looking at the problem.

 

Please show your work. Hoyer has consistently said this is a retool, not a rebuild. If you think building a bar and adding some plaques to a hallway eats up the $60m or whatever they have coming off the books, not sure what to tell you. Draftkings is already paying them $10m a year over 10 years, so you maybe assume they're helping out here as well. If his goal was to hide the team being bad, don't think he's currently doing a very good job. You aren't grasping just how cheap this current roster is going to be. Even if the speculation is true and Ricketts are pushing a salary cap minimum of $100m in exchange for a $180m cap, and even if the Ricketts goal was to hit that minimum to the dollar (which, to be clear, would be outrageous), there's still like $30m to spend just to get there.

[muntjack]

Our starter's ERAs: 4.04 4.19 5.00 5.16 6.88 ...... That wouldn't fly in the steroid era. They need to prioritize starting pitching.

 

If Alzolay's dong problem is a mirage, he's a #2/#3 starter. If it's not he's a #4/#5. That's a huge swing for deciding where to allocate resources on the offseason shopping list.

 

 

I agree with most of what you're saying but I firmly believe that getting two top-flight starters is the most efficient and obtainable path to quick contention for this team, regardless of what Adbert is or what he may become.

 

A rotation of, say,

 

Rodon

Stroman

Hendricks

Alzolay

Mills

 

keeps the Cubs in a lot of games, and the farm is untouched. If Adbert figures out his changeup to lefties and becomes a real #2, then they're in the playoffs almost certainly.

 

After the AS break the lineup is

 

Madrigal 2B

Hoerner SS

Contreras C

Davis CF

Ortega RF

Happ LF

Wisdom 3B

Schwindel 1B

Hermosillo DH

 

Now you trade for a bat or two if necessary at the deadline.

[NOLA]

Does anyone think that Jed makes any kind of offer to Bryant, Rizzo or Javy? And if he does, will it be anything more than a BS offer to say that he tried? I can see a lowball offer made to KB, but that's about it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Does anyone think that Jed makes any kind of offer to Bryant, Rizzo or Javy? And if he does, will it be anything more than a BS offer to say that he tried? I can see a lowball offer made to KB, but that's about it.

 

Jed's been pretty public about having made offers that he 'thinks will hold up over time' or whatever the phrasing was, so in terms of being able to say he tried, I imagine he thinks that base is covered. So anything in the offseason would probably be legitimate interest.

[jersey cubs fan]

Does anyone think that Jed makes any kind of offer to Bryant, Rizzo or Javy? And if he does, will it be anything more than a BS offer to say that he tried? I can see a lowball offer made to KB, but that's about it.

I definitely think he will offer to at least one.

[pitchcs]

Our starter's ERAs: 4.04 4.19 5.00 5.16 6.88 ...... That wouldn't fly in the steroid era. They need to prioritize starting pitching.

 

If Alzolay's dong problem is a mirage, he's a #2/#3 starter. If it's not he's a #4/#5. That's a huge swing for deciding where to allocate resources on the offseason shopping list.

 

 

I agree with most of what you're saying but I firmly believe that getting two top-flight starters is the most efficient and obtainable path to quick contention for this team, regardless of what Adbert is or what he may become.

 

A rotation of, say,

 

Rodon

Stroman

Hendricks

Alzolay

Mills

 

keeps the Cubs in a lot of games, and the farm is untouched. If Adbert figures out his changeup to lefties and becomes a real #2, then they're in the playoffs almost certainly.

 

After the AS break the lineup is

 

Madrigal 2B

Hoerner SS

Contreras C

Davis CF

Ortega RF

Happ LF

Wisdom 3B

Schwindel 1B

Hermosillo DH

 

Now you trade for a bat or two if necessary at the deadline.

 

Not even sure where to start with this:

 

1) Why would anyone think signing Rodon is a good idea?

 

2) If you think that rotation/lineup is "almost certainly in the playoffs" or "need a bat to get in" then the Ricketts' have you exactly where they want you. That is an utterly garbage team.

[Tim]

Signing pitchers with a bunch of mileage on their arms to long-term deals for big dollars is a really quick way to get handcuffed by salary constraints without commensurate performance on the field.

[Backtobanks]

Does anyone think that Jed makes any kind of offer to Bryant, Rizzo or Javy? And if he does, will it be anything more than a BS offer to say that he tried? I can see a lowball offer made to KB, but that's about it.

 

This $30 million contract to Seager or Correa could have been offered to Bryant and then we would have not only an impact bat, but also would fill an actual hole (LF) that this team has. The money should be spent on the rotation first. A solid pitching staff keeps you in every game.

[muntjack]

 

If Alzolay's dong problem is a mirage, he's a #2/#3 starter. If it's not he's a #4/#5. That's a huge swing for deciding where to allocate resources on the offseason shopping list.

 

 

I agree with most of what you're saying but I firmly believe that getting two top-flight starters is the most efficient and obtainable path to quick contention for this team, regardless of what Adbert is or what he may become.

 

A rotation of, say,

 

Rodon

Stroman

Hendricks

Alzolay

Mills

 

keeps the Cubs in a lot of games, and the farm is untouched. If Adbert figures out his changeup to lefties and becomes a real #2, then they're in the playoffs almost certainly.

 

After the AS break the lineup is

 

Madrigal 2B

Hoerner SS

Contreras C

Davis CF

Ortega RF

Happ LF

Wisdom 3B

Schwindel 1B

Hermosillo DH

 

Now you trade for a bat or two if necessary at the deadline.

 

Not even sure where to start with this:

 

1) Why would anyone think signing Rodon is a good idea?

 

2) If you think that rotation/lineup is "almost certainly in the playoffs" or "need a bat to get in" then the Ricketts' have you exactly where they want you. That is an utterly garbage team.

 

Rodon is a placeholder. A true #1 and 1A/starter. I'd rather trade for at least one of them but that's unlikely. The lineup is certainly not ideal, that's kind of my point. Adding two bats to that lineup isn't going to make it a strength. Adding two TOR starters seems like greater value if we're going to spend on 2 big FAs this off-season (which seems like the best case scenario)