Darvish & Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies & 4 Rookie Ball Prospects

[David]

 

the return better be damn good because i'm going to be bummed as hell if this happens.

[Andy]

Don't tell us you're trying to make the playoffs and then trade away the only good starting pitcher on the team

[Bertz]

Hoooooolllllllllyyyyyyy Horsefeathers

 

I'd assume Cronenworth comes back this way, hence them getting Kim as well? Maybe Wil Myers too? Otherwise that's ~$40M outlaid in 24 hours. We knew they had some room this offseason but I didn't think it was nearly that much.

[UMFan83]

I dont mind it . I love Yu but he's our best tradable asset and his long term value is probably better than most 34 year olds, but still limited due to age. I was almost starting to sell myself into the whole 'the NL Central is so mediocre and no one is trying to improve, lets bring most of it back one more time' thought process but sorry if I sound spoiled but there's not that much fun in an 84 win team that gets swept in the first round.

 

I will miss him if he's traded, I really came to love him these last couple of years (beyond just the fact that he was unbelievably good at pitching), but the move makes sense depending on the return. And if any of those players in a return is close to major league ready, we could still compete next year if we get some luck with scrap heap guys in the pitching factory.

 

That said, after graduating a bunch of guys, trading for Clevenger and then trading for Snell, I feel like the return from the Padres is going to be very underwhelming.

[Sammy Sofa]

These talks run deep, so deep, that it has put any interest in next season to sleep.

[Bertz]

 

I think Brett's probably right on the money here

[UMFan83]

Hoooooolllllllllyyyyyyy Horsefeathers

 

I'd assume Cronenworth comes back this way, hence them getting Kim as well? Maybe Wil Myers too? Otherwise that's ~$40M outlaid in 24 hours. We knew they had some room this offseason but I didn't think it was nearly that much.

 

Any chance we take on someone like Clevinger? I know he's out for 2021, but still pre-FA

 

Fake edit: As I say that, I realized he's only under control for 1 more year after 2021 and he'll be 32 when he reaches FA. Maybe would make sense if they could buy out his last 2 arb years in an extension. Maybe 5 years, $55m or something.

[Rob]

Is this when we finally get Jake Peavy?

[UMFan83]

I should say that any defense or support of this deal is based on the fact that the Cubs have an artificial spending limit, which I am vigorously opposed to. If the Cubs were actually allowed to spend money to take advantage of a small market division, I would be very opposed to any discussion of trading Yu.

[Gilby]

I know Myers was quite good in 2020 but that predicted return seems light if you are taking his contract in return.

[Bertz]

[Cubswin11]

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I know Myers was quite good in 2020 but that predicted return seems light if you are taking his contract in return.

 

I could be wrong, but I'd imagine the Padres are going to pay a decent amount of it.

[Gilby]

I know Myers was quite good in 2020 but that predicted return seems light if you are taking his contract in return.

 

I could be wrong, but I'd imagine the Padres are going to pay a decent amount of it.

 

Possibly, but two years of Wil Myers, even if cheap, isn't overly valuable to us after trading one of the best pitchers in baseball.

[UMFan83]

I know Myers was quite good in 2020 but that predicted return seems light if you are taking his contract in return.

 

I could be wrong, but I'd imagine the Padres are going to pay a decent amount of it.

 

Possibly, but two years of Wil Myers, even if cheap, isn't overly valuable to us after trading one of the best pitchers in baseball.

 

I look at any offensive acquisitions as an attempt to change the dynamic of the offense to be more contact oriented. Myers seems to fit that profile, even though its very likely that last year was more of a SSS fluke (im sure someone here will do the research if this trade actually happens). I probably believe way too much in the pitch factory crap, but it seems to have yielded some great results, so while I know we can't replace Yu with it I do believe we can cobble together a solid rotation. Maybe I'm way wrong, but in terms of building for the future while cutting spending and still trying to be quasi-competitive you're gonna have to take some risks, and this seems like the best place to get unexpected results.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I know Myers was quite good in 2020 but that predicted return seems light if you are taking his contract in return.

 

I could be wrong, but I'd imagine the Padres are going to pay a decent amount of it.

 

Possibly, but two years of Wil Myers, even if cheap, isn't overly valuable to us after trading one of the best pitchers in baseball.

 

They will just flip him, too. I know they will act like they are trying to be competitive, but I don't think ownership is really that interested in anything but payroll for the next few years (or maybe ever again?). If they were, they likely wouldn't be trading Darvish in the first place.

 

ETA: I'm fine with trading Yu even from a straight up baseball decision. There are reasons to do it, although I don't believe the Cubs are doing it for those reasons.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Bryant's Disco Ball

[squally1313]

I know Myers was quite good in 2020 but that predicted return seems light if you are taking his contract in return.

 

I could be wrong, but I'd imagine the Padres are going to pay a decent amount of it.

 

Possibly, but two years of Wil Myers, even if cheap, isn't overly valuable to us after trading one of the best pitchers in baseball.

 

Replacing Kyle Schwarber with worse, older Kyle Schwarber just so we could dump our best pitcher is certainly making me consider just how much I enjoy sitting in the bleachers.

 

Seems like if you've won 56% of your games the last 3 years and the rest of the division is openly broadcasting that they aren't trying, you'd want to focus on the couple minor moves it would take to make you comfortable favorites. But hey, what do I know.

[Cubswin11]

Wily Myers sucks and makes as much as Yu. We better get like their top 5 prospects back then. Cronenworth, Pham, 1 of Abrams or Hassell and a pitcher back is what I want. And throw in Vic and sell them he’s a key to Yu’s success to extract extra pieces. Edited December 28, 2020 by Cubswin11

[Post Count Padder]

Adding Contreras to the deal better at least get Gore or Abrams but I'm sure it won't.

 

Going off Brett's guess: Cronenworth, Myers (+$$$), Morejon, Weathers, lottery tickets? I dunno. Maybe we somehow get Grisham and our CF issue is solved.

[Bertz]

I know Myers was quite good in 2020 but that predicted return seems light if you are taking his contract in return.

 

I could be wrong, but I'd imagine the Padres are going to pay a decent amount of it.

 

Possibly, but two years of Wil Myers, even if cheap, isn't overly valuable to us after trading one of the best pitchers in baseball.

 

I think the point is to essentially buy additional prospects. The Cubs have almost nothing on the books next year if Darvish is dealt. ~$40M in guaranteed money, plus another ~$40M in potential between arb guys and Kimbrel's option. So if we take on Myers, get some of his '21 salary paid down, and get an extra Ryan Weathers type prospect out of it, it's a Win-Win IMO.

 

Edit: I realize it's not clear above, but "next year" means 2022 in this context

Edited December 28, 2020 by Bertz

[squally1313]

 

I could be wrong, but I'd imagine the Padres are going to pay a decent amount of it.

 

Possibly, but two years of Wil Myers, even if cheap, isn't overly valuable to us after trading one of the best pitchers in baseball.

 

I look at any offensive acquisitions as an attempt to change the dynamic of the offense to be more contact oriented. Myers seems to fit that profile, even though its very likely that last year was more of a SSS fluke (im sure someone here will do the research if this trade actually happens). I probably believe way too much in the pitch factory crap, but it seems to have yielded some great results, so while I know we can't replace Yu with it I do believe we can cobble together a solid rotation. Maybe I'm way wrong, but in terms of building for the future while cutting spending and still trying to be quasi-competitive you're gonna have to take some risks, and this seems like the best place to get unexpected results.

 

Wil Myers has a 27% K rate (more than the Cubs team rate) and is projected for 30% this year.

[UMFan83]

 

Possibly, but two years of Wil Myers, even if cheap, isn't overly valuable to us after trading one of the best pitchers in baseball.

 

I look at any offensive acquisitions as an attempt to change the dynamic of the offense to be more contact oriented. Myers seems to fit that profile, even though its very likely that last year was more of a SSS fluke (im sure someone here will do the research if this trade actually happens). I probably believe way too much in the pitch factory crap, but it seems to have yielded some great results, so while I know we can't replace Yu with it I do believe we can cobble together a solid rotation. Maybe I'm way wrong, but in terms of building for the future while cutting spending and still trying to be quasi-competitive you're gonna have to take some risks, and this seems like the best place to get unexpected results.

 

Wil Myers has a 27% K rate (more than the Cubs team rate) and is projected for 30% this year.

 

I guess in my really quick research on FGs to make that post, I shouldn't have used Javy Baez as the benchmark to compare him to (I was looking at more of z-contact% and o-contact% rates rather than K rate) Nevermind then

Edited December 28, 2020 by UMFan83

[Sammy Sofa]

Even saw the lights of the Goodyear Blimp

And it read "TOM RICKETTS' A SIMP"

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I know it's just how the business works, and maybe the Cubs even talked to him about it and he's ok with it, but there's something so gross about giving the dude a huge "we want you here" pitch in free agency and then trading him a couple years later.

[Bertz]

Re: Wil Myers

 

http://www.mlb.com/amp/news/analyzing-2020-mlb-breakout-hitters.html

 

Wil Myers, Padres

+58 points, from 96 wRC+ to 154 wRC+

 

No National Leaguer cut their strikeout rate by as much as Myers did from 2019 to '20, and that's generally been his issue more than anything, because he regularly hits the ball hard. Myers, when asked, didn't have much to attribute the change to other than some allusions to a "consistent approach," which makes it hard for us to really pin a reason on his '20 success.

 

But for what it's worth, Myers did end 2019 with a red-hot September (.312/.365/.532), so if you were to look at every hitter with 200 plate appearances dating back to last Sept. 1, he's 13th best, just ahead of Luke Voit and Corey Seager. If you're saying that's an arbitrary sample size, well it certainly is, though no more than a 60-game season is. Plus, it's worth noting that just before that, in early July 2019, FanGraphs' Ben Clemens wrote that while Myers was striking out too much and having a relatively poor season, "there are no two ways about it; Wil Myers is hitting baseballs as hard as he ever has."

 

It's all a bit amorphous, since there's no return to health or change of scenery (he's been in San Diego since 2015) or obvious swing change, aside, perhaps, from a back-foot pivot change, to point to. But it feels like there's something here, too, in part because of his relative youth (only 30 in December), his track record of being mildly above average, and the fact that the entire Padres offense made some clear changes in 2020. (Not only did San Diego's hitters cut their chase rate from 2019 more than any other team, they did it by nearly twice as much as the second-place Blue Jays. They also improved their hard-hit rate more than anyone aside from the Dodgers. It wasn't all Myers.)

 

Maybe the Padres kept him while trading away almost every other outfielder they've had for the past few years because no one would take his contract. Maybe they saw something they liked, too.

 

Verdict: Without a great deal of confidence, this one feels like it's got something to it.