Week 13: Detroit Lions @ Chicago BEARS

[jersey cubs fan]

Because I can never have nice things......IU football is 6-1 and a top 10 team this year, but them and the Bears have not won on the same weekend this year.

/sulleytweets/

[minnesotacubsfan]

I-who?

[UMFan83]

Because I can never have nice things......IU football is 6-1 and a top 10 team this year, but them and the Bears have not won on the same weekend this year.

 

At least you have IU football... (that sounds really strange to say)

[raw]

Because I can never have nice things......IU football is 6-1 and a top 10 team this year, but them and the Bears have not won on the same weekend this year.

 

At least you have IU football... (that sounds really strange to say)

 

Yeah, and they should be good for at least the next couple years so bad news for the Bears if this trend continues

[WrigleyField 22]

Okay, now even I believe the Bears will clean house. Hopefully to include Philips.

I think the Phillips hate is usually some combination of misplaced or overstated. It's probably a role they could upgrade, though I don't think it's hugely important to football ops. From what I've looked around in many orgs a non "football person" being at the top between GM and owner isn't unusual. Some orgs do have a GM report directly to the owner, but those seem to typically be orgs with a much more hands on owner- how the Bears were until Phillips was named Pres- where a principal or minority owner was acting in that President role. So people need to think broadly about it as being another business hire primarily and not someone who's going to fix football personnel issues.

 

That said, if they do replace Phillips and plan to have a President/CEO role between the top football exec and George, timing gets kind of interesting. I assume that the Pres search will be a longer search than a coach/GM search.

 

If they fire Phillips tomorrow, maybe they have time to bring in a new President by the time the season ends and that person, with George, leads the GM search and subsequently HC hire.

 

If they're all fired on Black Monday, not only will you be at 3rd and 4th choice GM/HC/assistant coach hires, but they'd be going into valuable offseason time for those new hires.

 

So perhaps the other likely course is that if all 3 were fired black Friday, McCaskey announces that the two searches are separate and he immediately will start on the GM search with an Accorsi like advisor again and that a president would be named at a later date. That keeps them on a competetive timeline with other teams for coach/GM.

 

OR as a slightly more unconventional route, go with an interim-like route. Fire just Phillips and Pace. Elevate a guy like Champ Kelly on the football side and Cliff Stein on the business ops side to act in acting/interim roles and that a President search won't be rushed and that person will make final decisions about personnel at the conclusion of 2021 season. Nagy stays on since he has 2 years and isn't a lame duck like Pace would have been.

 

Or just fire Pace and Nagy on Black Monday and kind of just quietly start pushing Phillips aside, but don't make any formal announcements until the new GM is hired at which time you announce that in the new structure the GM will report directly to George and Phillips formally becomes just a glorified CFO/COO. Then in a year or two formally part ways with Phillips and then look to insert a new President/CEO.

 

In any event, the worst combination would seem to be a Black Monday trifecta and then trying to replace all 3 in a like 6 week time span of successive hires, along with dozens of new FO staffers and assistants. So some other shoe seemingly has to drop from a timeline perspective.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah, I don't see what Phillips has done that's so wrong. Eventually you have to have a non-football guy at the top, and they won't be perfect at picking the football guys.

 

If Nagy and Pace were unprofessional or completely out of their league or something, then that would be Phillips' fault. They're not that bad, they're just not good enough in an extremely cut-throat league where few end up being good enough. So we take another spin.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How the heck are we only in line for the 13th pick? That's crazy.

 

This is gonna have to be a multi-year tank. The cap situation for next season is an absolute dumpster fire. You're already over the projected cap before you even hit the offseason, and there aren't really any good cuts to be made. Someone will say "cut Massie and Leno," but you'll just have to replace them and that will cost you at least as much as you save.

 

You basically can't do anything this offseason even if you wanted to. You just draft what you can and sit on your hands while everyone gets a year older. I'm fine with drafting O-line and trying to set up the next QB draftee with the best situation possible.

[mias_tisg]

Ryan Pace should be fired tomorrow. I don't need to see them finish 8-8 and then be suckered into keeping him and they can get a head-start on replacing him. As far as Nagy, let the new GM decide on him after the season.

[Soul]

Shouldn’t the Phillips role be the one responsible for hiring the right GM, in an ideal scenario? I don’t think I want him involved in the next hire.

[WrigleyField 22]

Shouldn’t the Phillips role be the one responsible for hiring the right GM, in an ideal scenario? I don’t think I want him involved in the next hire.

Yes? No? Maybe?

 

Ultimately I think its McCaskeys vision and the president is just an extension of that. If he back filled that role its going to be someone who fulfills that vision and that's a very stable job thats not going to be as closely tied to W-L as GM/HC. So they can outlast a legacy GM and HC hire- its just a much bigger scale and long term hire.

 

Which leads me to think it's a longer role to search for and you cant wait on that for GM/HC, unless you have an internal candidate, like perhaps Cliff Stein. Or you restructure the org where the GM no longer reports up through the president, but the operate more in parallel (like Cubs with Boyer-Kenney operating their sides), but I do think that setup requires more active management from ownership.

 

Mostly I'm just prepping for the onslaught of hot takes that suggest replacing Phillips with basically a super GM role, some experienced football personnel exec. I think I may have made that same arguement 6 years ago, but do realize that's a simplistic way to think about it all.

[jersey cubs fan]

[BigbadB]

I was cheering for a Lions victory. Got my wish. I hope the Bears can move into the top 10 for the draft by season's end. I'm ready for a new regime.

[WrigleyField 22]

How the heck are we only in line for the 13th pick? That's crazy.

 

This is gonna have to be a multi-year tank. The cap situation for next season is an absolute dumpster fire. You're already over the projected cap before you even hit the offseason, and there aren't really any good cuts to be made. Someone will say "cut Massie and Leno," but you'll just have to replace them and that will cost you at least as much as you save.

 

You basically can't do anything this offseason even if you wanted to. You just draft what you can and sit on your hands while everyone gets a year older. I'm fine with drafting O-line and trying to set up the next QB draftee with the best situation possible.

I think a multi year concerted tank is never reality in the NFL. I honestly don't even like that "Process" style effort in the NBA (at least anymore with new lottery odds) but it's somewhat more defensible there.

 

I think it should be a hard "reset" year where they do just shed as much of the dead caps as they can. To your point about replacing those guys the one positive is that like half the league is in a cap crunch this offseason because of covid. NO is going to be like 100M over and PHI 75M over before getting to cuts. So they will definitely be able to bargain shop for 1 year deals to replace those roster spots for a year, at which point, if they fully committed to it, cap sanity should be restored in 2022.

 

So I'd say a mini tank. And figure out what your cost on Fuller and Mack is. Don't move them at any cost, but for a reasonable deal. Hicks get a late pick for if you can. Everyone else is young enough to keep or too worthless to trade.

 

Of course there are ways for them to put together another half assed shot at it in 2021. I played around with it and they could free up enough to make a few second teir signings, maybe even for a new QB like a Brissett. Not a fan of that option AT ALL, but the cap could be manipulated to do such a thing.

 

But anyways after that one year mini tank you'll have some cap space and a healthy balance sheet. You will have all all of your early picks in tact for two years. Should have several comp picks over 2 years and perhaps a few extra picks if you did manage to trade Mack/Fuller. The biggest question is QB, but teams frequently do quick builds in the NFL, without taking extreme shortcuts like a Khalil Mack type trade.

[Old Style]

Bad teams find ways to lose games.

[gflore34]

Whatever path the Bears take I'm certain it'll be the worst or least logical. Maybe they'll get lucky and things will work out, hoping which is really pathetic.

[BigbadB]

How the heck are we only in line for the 13th pick? That's crazy.

 

This is gonna have to be a multi-year tank. The cap situation for next season is an absolute dumpster fire. You're already over the projected cap before you even hit the offseason, and there aren't really any good cuts to be made. Someone will say "cut Massie and Leno," but you'll just have to replace them and that will cost you at least as much as you save.

 

You basically can't do anything this offseason even if you wanted to. You just draft what you can and sit on your hands while everyone gets a year older. I'm fine with drafting O-line and trying to set up the next QB draftee with the best situation possible.

I think a multi year concerted tank is never reality in the NFL. I honestly don't even like that "Process" style effort in the NBA (at least anymore with new lottery odds) but it's somewhat more defensible there.

 

I think it should be a hard "reset" year where they do just shed as much of the dead caps as they can. To your point about replacing those guys the one positive is that like half the league is in a cap crunch this offseason because of covid. NO is going to be like 100M over and PHI 75M over before getting to cuts. So they will definitely be able to bargain shop for 1 year deals to replace those roster spots for a year, at which point, if they fully committed to it, cap sanity should be restored in 2022.

 

So I'd say a mini tank. And figure out what your cost on Fuller and Mack is. Don't move them at any cost, but for a reasonable deal. Hicks get a late pick for if you can. Everyone else is young enough to keep or too worthless to trade.

 

Of course there are ways for them to put together another half assed shot at it in 2021. I played around with it and they could free up enough to make a few second teir signings, maybe even for a new QB like a Brissett. Not a fan of that option AT ALL, but the cap could be manipulated to do such a thing.

 

But anyways after that one year mini tank you'll have some cap space and a healthy balance sheet. You will have all all of your early picks in tact for two years. Should have several comp picks over 2 years and perhaps a few extra picks if you did manage to trade Mack/Fuller. The biggest question is QB, but teams frequently do quick builds in the NFL, without taking extreme shortcuts like a Khalil Mack type trade.

 

I agree. You don't completely blow it up. In fact, I think with the right moves this team could compete for a playoff spot as soon as 2021. Wishful thinking, but fixing the Oline and getting a QB can turn this offense around in a big hurry. You have amazing youth at WR, TE and RB.

 

You'll likely need to trade some aging defensive players like Fuller and Hicks. I've even seen the suggestion of tagging and trading Robinson if you don't find the cap space to keep him. Graham, Skrine and one of Massie/Leno will likely be let go to create some cap space. Goldman coming back is a boost for the defense. In general, I think they can trade some elements on D and still be competitive on that side of the ball (with a more aggressive DC) and if they can improve the OLine and get a competent QB, this team could be competitive with a soft rebuild. The Lions are a mess. The Vikings appear to be a mess. Green Bay is the thorn in the side.

[WrigleyField 22]

You have amazing youth at WR, TE and RB.

Whoa slow down :lol:

 

I do like Mooney a lot. And Kmet might still turn into something. Miller TBD. Montgomery, JAG who you should replace with another rookie contract player in a year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How the heck are we only in line for the 13th pick? That's crazy.

 

This is gonna have to be a multi-year tank. The cap situation for next season is an absolute dumpster fire. You're already over the projected cap before you even hit the offseason, and there aren't really any good cuts to be made. Someone will say "cut Massie and Leno," but you'll just have to replace them and that will cost you at least as much as you save.

 

You basically can't do anything this offseason even if you wanted to. You just draft what you can and sit on your hands while everyone gets a year older. I'm fine with drafting O-line and trying to set up the next QB draftee with the best situation possible.

I think a multi year concerted tank is never reality in the NFL. I honestly don't even like that "Process" style effort in the NBA (at least anymore with new lottery odds) but it's somewhat more defensible there.

 

I think it should be a hard "reset" year where they do just shed as much of the dead caps as they can. To your point about replacing those guys the one positive is that like half the league is in a cap crunch this offseason because of covid. NO is going to be like 100M over and PHI 75M over before getting to cuts. So they will definitely be able to bargain shop for 1 year deals to replace those roster spots for a year, at which point, if they fully committed to it, cap sanity should be restored in 2022.

 

So I'd say a mini tank. And figure out what your cost on Fuller and Mack is. Don't move them at any cost, but for a reasonable deal. Hicks get a late pick for if you can. Everyone else is young enough to keep or too worthless to trade.

 

Of course there are ways for them to put together another half assed shot at it in 2021. I played around with it and they could free up enough to make a few second teir signings, maybe even for a new QB like a Brissett. Not a fan of that option AT ALL, but the cap could be manipulated to do such a thing.

 

But anyways after that one year mini tank you'll have some cap space and a healthy balance sheet. You will have all all of your early picks in tact for two years. Should have several comp picks over 2 years and perhaps a few extra picks if you did manage to trade Mack/Fuller. The biggest question is QB, but teams frequently do quick builds in the NFL, without taking extreme shortcuts like a Khalil Mack type trade.

 

I agree. You don't completely blow it up. In fact, I think with the right moves this team could compete for a playoff spot as soon as 2021. Wishful thinking, but fixing the Oline and getting a QB can turn this offense around in a big hurry. You have amazing youth at WR, TE and RB.

 

You'll likely need to trade some aging defensive players like Fuller and Hicks. I've even seen the suggestion of tagging and trading Robinson if you don't find the cap space to keep him. Graham, Skrine and one of Massie/Leno will likely be let go to create some cap space. Goldman coming back is a boost for the defense. In general, I think they can trade some elements on D and still be competitive on that side of the ball (with a more aggressive DC) and if they can improve the OLine and get a competent QB, this team could be competitive with a soft rebuild. The Lions are a mess. The Vikings appear to be a mess. Green Bay is the thorn in the side.

 

For my rebuttal, please refer to everything we said last offseason about the exact same idea except now everyone is a year older and there’s even less cap space to fix it.

 

Edit: oh, and no Robinson

Edited December 7, 2020 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If the rumors are correct that the cap is dropping, then the Bears are already over it. If the league is generous and it stays flat, they’ve got maybe 15 million for the whole offseason. There aren’t really any good cap-clearing cuts to be made besides cutting Graham.

 

Trading Mack adds ~12 million to his cap hit this year for us. Total non-starter

[WrigleyField 22]

If the rumors are correct that the cap is dropping, then the Bears are already over it. If the league is generous and it stays flat, they’ve got maybe 15 million for the whole offseason. There aren’t really any good cap-clearing cuts to be made besides cutting Graham.

 

Trading Mack adds ~12 million to his cap hit this year for us. Total non-starter

I think a Mack trade saves a tiny amount still. About $4m I think. The trading team takes on guaranteed money, you just eat the dead cap hits from bonus pro-rations.

 

Even if it was a slight dead cap in 2021 you could move around other stuff to reallocate cap hits and you're still saving in net a big chunk, and more importantly squeezing out some resources from him. The cap stuff is pretty fluid due to the rollforward nature of it and I think it's important to look at "unearned" savings rather than focusing too much on dead hits, which are a sunk cost.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If the rumors are correct that the cap is dropping, then the Bears are already over it. If the league is generous and it stays flat, they’ve got maybe 15 million for the whole offseason. There aren’t really any good cap-clearing cuts to be made besides cutting Graham.

 

Trading Mack adds ~12 million to his cap hit this year for us. Total non-starter

I think a Mack trade saves a tiny amount still. About $4m I think. The trading team takes on guaranteed money, you just eat the dead cap hits from bonus pro-rations.

 

Even if it was a slight dead cap in 2021 you could move around other stuff to reallocate cap hits and you're still saving in net a big chunk, and more importantly squeezing out some resources from him. The cap stuff is pretty fluid due to the rollforward nature of it and I think it's important to look at "unearned" savings rather than focusing too much on dead hits, which are a sunk cost.

 

According to Spotrac, he costs us $26m if he's on the roster in 2021 and a $37m dead-cap hit if he's not:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/khalil-mack-14414/

 

We used most of our wiggle-room on the cap last year. It's not an infinite well.

[WrigleyField 22]

If the rumors are correct that the cap is dropping, then the Bears are already over it. If the league is generous and it stays flat, they’ve got maybe 15 million for the whole offseason. There aren’t really any good cap-clearing cuts to be made besides cutting Graham.

 

Trading Mack adds ~12 million to his cap hit this year for us. Total non-starter

I think a Mack trade saves a tiny amount still. About $4m I think. The trading team takes on guaranteed money, you just eat the dead cap hits from bonus pro-rations.

 

Even if it was a slight dead cap in 2021 you could move around other stuff to reallocate cap hits and you're still saving in net a big chunk, and more importantly squeezing out some resources from him. The cap stuff is pretty fluid due to the rollforward nature of it and I think it's important to look at "unearned" savings rather than focusing too much on dead hits, which are a sunk cost.

 

According to Spotrac, he costs us $26m if he's on the roster in 2021 and a $37m dead-cap hit if he's not:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/khalil-mack-14414/

 

We used most of our wiggle-room on the cap last year. It's not an infinite well.

Fwiw I usually prefer OTC. They do a good job analyzing this stuff for the NFL specifically and spotrac is more a generalist and aggregator.

 

https://overthecap.com/player/khalil-mack/2944/

[SouthSideRyan]

How the heck are we only in line for the 13th pick? That's crazy.

 

They inexplicably started 5-1.

[WrigleyField 22]

FWIW, a couple posts I made on a Bears message board in regards to the cap. There's some context missing here where I was replying to specific things, but lays out either end of the extreme that they have with their cap options.

 

Option 1- Accelerate hits and free up just enough cap to fill out roster with low salary/minimum salary and draft pool, with a small cushion;

Cut: Massie, Leno, Graham, Skrine (all standard cuts - no June 1 cuts)

Trade: Hicks (I think you could get a 5th rounder for him, that's it). If you can't get anything, its unfortunately cutting time.

Listen to offers on Fuller and Mack, but probably end up keeping them. I'd probably want a top 100 and a 5/6th pick for Fuller and a top 50 and 4/5th for Mack. Not sure we'd get that.

 

Consider extensions for Daniels and Smith, but only on good terms (keeping in mind the covid-cap drop is a big uncertainty and may remain so)

 

That gets the projected cap space at about $25, but for only 30 roster spots. So at about 800k minimum for each remaining roster spot and the rookie pool, and that's pretty much everything of the $25M. Yeesh. So I guess if the Mack or Fuller trades don't happen you have to consider some restructure or extension with one of them to at least free up another 5M of working room. Or designate one of those other cuts as a June 1 guy as well. Maybe the NFL will come up with some covid-relief salary cap exception.. we'll see.

 

But yea, basically need to fill out my roster with minimum salary vets, the draft class, and UDFAs. The only silver lining is that there will be many covid cap casualties. You will be able to fill out the bottom of that roster with actual capable rotation players, but you'll by and large just be waiting out the market. No marquee FAs this year.

 

Option 2 - Double down and maximize 2021 cap. But specifically I was exploring how you could do it without cutting guys. Obviously some combination of cuts and restructures would be at play.

There's three main ways to "create" cap room without waiving a player.

1. Manipulating existing dead money into a different form to change the timing

ex. Convert a 10M roster bonus in Year 2 into a signing bonus spread out over years 3-4. I think they've done this twice already to Mack's contract.

 

2. Converting an unguaranteed portion into a signing bonus for an option contract with void years.

ex. Similar in nature to the above, but you are creating new guarantees and new dead hits, just spread out. The Bears have also increasingly done this with "false contract years" in which they spread the hit up to 5 years into the future, but don't actually extend the life of the contract. Fuller did a deal like this last offseason.

 

3. Renegotiate unguaranteed contract into a lower contract.

ex. I believe they did this with Kyle Long's last year. This is typically where its used, for a player who's a borderline cut candidate entering the final year of control.

 

3 is the least risky and in fact really doesn't have downside for the team, but the player rarely wants to agree. 1 is not too risky for the team as it doesn't actually change anything with the dead cap. It literally just shifts timing. The economics of the deal are unchanged though over the life of the contract. 2 Is the riskiest for a team. They're adding dead hits and future obligations, not just shifting around money.

 

Here's the following candidates for each type of move and roughly how much 2021 cap it moves to future periods if nearly maxed out.

 

1.

Mack (12M saved, adjusted over the next 3 years)

Quinn (8M, over 3)

Jackson (6M, over 3)

Goldman (3M, over 2)

Foles (2M, over 1)

 

2. Noted for the inclusion of "dummy years"

Leno 6M (over 2 dummy years)

Graham 4M (over 2 dummy years)

Whitehair 4M (over 4 years, no dummy years)

Massie 5M (3 years, no dummy years)

Skrine 2M (2 dummy years)

 

3. (I'll assume each takes an approx 50% haircut)

Leno 4M

Graham 3M

Skrine 2M

Technically you could put Hicks (5M) and Fuller (6M) in this category, but I think they fit more in the next category.

 

The last category being extension which you could say Hicks and Fuller fall into. The market it hard to reach, but struct uring can be creative so for purpose of an estimate, without guessing their total next year, I'll just slash their cap hits by 40%, saving about 8M and 6M with new money deals attached.

 

Add all those up (without double counting anyone) and you can aggressively free up 65M+. Their current "effective" cap number is currently negative 7M, so net, let's just say they can free up a net cap number of $40M, (assuming they won't max out every move available to them and don't release anyone)

 

Keep in mind by not releasing certain guys they aren't accelerating certain dead hits that they would have freed up if they had waived them, so there's a slight hidden cost here, but the goal was maximizing 2021 cap. Also keep in mind this $50M or so they "freed up" is all being added to years down the road. So figure about ~10-15M annually in additional cap swallowed up in years 2022-2025 with these moves, some of which is in the form of new guarantees.

 

So you can play around with the middle ground between those paths, but those are basically the barriers on either side of the 2021 cap management game.

[raw]

Don't underestimate the difference a new coach (scheme) and QB can make.

 

The Cards went from last to 16th in offense by adding just Kingsbury/Murray before the 2019 season. That was pretty much all they did offensively other than lateral moves with scrap heap guys at TE, RG, and RT. They added Hopkins this year and went to top 10.

 

The Niners went from 30th in offense to 20th just by hiring Shanahan, and their QB went from Kaepernick/Gabbert to Hoyer/Beathard and 5 games of Jimmy G to end the year. When Shanahan had a healthy QB of his choosing, his offense was #2 last year and obviously went to the SB.

 

Now granted, the Bears aren't going to hire an elite college play designer or the top NFL offensive mind on the market this offseason and won't have the #1 pick. But don't underestimate how far competence can go. Jimmy G is clearly just competent at best. Murray is a dynamic talent, but his numbers as a rookie were not world beating. And non-spectacular candidates like Brian Daboll (Buf) and Arthur Smith (Ten) are putting together strong offenses while developing/fixing QBs. One of those types + Wilson/Lance in this draft could put this offense near the middle of the pack. If the defense decides actually doesn't quit next year, they'll be in position to win a decent amount of games even with guys a year older.