2020 Offseason Thread

[Bertz]

This is going to be a fascinating season for the pitching staff. The projections *hate* the pitching right now. Fangraphs has the Cubs projected for the 2nd least pitching WAR in baseball, tied with the Orioles.

Pecota has the team at 21st in runs allowed (I don't want to put in the effort to split that between pitching and defense).

 

But, like, you can see what the team is doing:

 

- Kyle and Davies appear to be legit FIP beaters (and thus projection confounders?). If you use a runs allowed version of WAR, they rank 14th and 37th the last two years. FG projections have them as the 44th and 127th ranked pitchers for this upcoming year

 

- Alzolay made a bunch of changes at the alternate site, and was phenomenal in his small sample in the big leagues. But the alternate site stuff doesn't count towards projections, so they see just 21 innings last year.

That's understandably not enough to move the needle much on his projections, even if the eye test says he's legit now

 

- Alec Mills is kinda boring, but does a lot of the same stuff with seam shifted wake and spin mirroring that Kyle does. He also has a career 4.06 ERA/4.73 FIP/4.26 xFIP as a starter. Even if you assume his low velocity means that homerun problem is here to stay, that's adequate 4th starter material. And if the deader ball or better luck fixes his dong problem, he might actually be kinda good?

 

- Trevor Williams has a chance to join the long line of ex Pirates who leave and immediately find more success when they learn it's not illegal to throw pitches in the top half of the zone

 

- Jake still has the same velo he had his last year in Chicago, when he was still pretty good (if no longer great). It's not hard to imagine the problem was the Phillies coaching staff and/or defense

 

- The bullpen is the same deal as last year. Take a dozen guys who have elite velo and/or spin, and you will unearth 3-4 solid options to pair with Kimbrel/Wick/Chafin

 

There's a ton of ifs there, but none of them are that outrageous. We're not asking for an injured guy to recover, or someone's velocity to magically come back.

There will be some duds, probably a few spectacular ones. At the same time, Kyle's the only guy with a long term commitment. The team can cycle through guys until they find the right combo, especially since Iowa actually has a pretty solid staff for the first time in like a decade.

 

It feels crazy, especially since I'm generally the type to be like "b-b-but the projections say blah," but I'm more confident in the pitching staff than the offense for this season.

[ConstableRabbit]

I’m the same way, but projection models are rightly based on norms, none of which apply this season. How are they accounting for the 60 game season? It’s very difficult to build that in.

 

Several of us have talked about how challenging it’s going to be for guys to be really stretched out and injury free — it seems like the Cubs are making a similar bet.

[Bertz]

[Backtobanks]

 

Anyone know if the Brewers have talked to the Cubs about Bryant? Gotta think that might happen if Turner goes back to the Doyers

 

I can't see Hoyer trading Bryant to a division rival.

[Radar3454]

I'm surprised Jeffress and Tepera are still available and hope we can get one of them back.

[Post Count Padder]

I would take back MVP vote getter Ryan Tepera.

[CubsWin]

I'm surprised Jeffress and Tepera are still available and hope we can get one of them back.

Wow, I wasn't aware Jeffress was still available. I thought he got by on smoke and mirrors last season (or more like guts and aggression), but he did so consistently.

 

With the 40-man currently full, the question isn't "hey, is this guy worth signing?", its "is this guy clearly better than who we've got?" Jeffress and Tepera are known quantities to us, but we don't know what the Cubs know about how Gray Fenter, Robert Stock and Jonathan Holder are throwing.

 

Which makes me wonder if Fenter, Stock and Holder have been working in the pitching lab in Mesa since they signed. If the lab work is successful, it would improve their chances of performing well in spring training and being kept on the roster. On the flip side, it also gives the Cubs more of a chance to evaluate them and, if they haven't been able to make the adjustments they're looking for, to feel comfortable releasing them and signing someone like Jeffress.

[JeffH]

One problem with the likes of Jeffress and Tepera is that neither of them is optionable.

 

The bullpen is going to have at least three non-optionables - Kimbrel, Chafin, and, assuming he doesn't implode, Winkler.

 

If he's healthy and pitching well, Wick will be high enough on the food chain to where they probably won't be optioning him even though he does have options remaining.

 

Hard to know what they think of Underwood, but they've kept him around for a long time. If they carry him, he can't be optioned.

 

Nor could Fenter in the unlikely event they carried him under Rule 5.

 

If they sign Jeffress or Tepera or another non-optionable, that'll be 5-7 of the 8 spots that are locked in. That assumes that one of the eight bullpen spots doesn't go to a sixth starter. Let's hope they have the guts to rotate Williams and Alzolay in and out of the rotation via option.

[Cubswin11]

A’s re-signed Petit to a 1 year deal, I mentioned him the other day as a vet target I wouldn’t mind and Levine said we are still looking to add a vet RP. Ian Kennedy or Shane Greene would be my top two picks for that role. Maybe Nick Tropeano as more of a flyer or Juan Nicasio is a little interesting as well. Or just bring Tepera back.

[Cubswin11]

Sogard is the only LHH 2B left, so uh hopefully we have a trade lined up.

 

[Cubswin11]

[sweetpeteman]

PSC?

[Bertz]

 

I'm not sure if the news of a deader ball makes me more or less okay with this. On the one hand, the only times he's been a GOOD hitter were juiced ball seasons in hitters parks, basically turning some of his mediocre fly balls into wall-scraper dongs. On the other hand, if the ball is deader, maybe a ~.350 SLG is more roster able?

 

I guess I'm probably cool with it if it's a minor league deal?

[Gilby]

In a world with PTR doing his thing, Ildemaro Vargas is actually a little more interesting than I realized for 2b reps (and I do mean a little). I don't think I cared enough to look him up last year when we acquired him.

[Cubswin11]

 

I hope it’s not Jeffress, don’t want to bank on his smoke and mirrors from last year. Hopefully it’s Kennedy, Rosenthal or Greene.

[Post Count Padder]

 

I hope it’s not Jeffress, don’t want to bank on his smoke and mirrors from last year. Hopefully it’s Kennedy, Rosenthal or Greene.

We watched David Robertson's session. I like him as a bounce back candidate.

[Post Count Padder]

In a world with PTR doing his thing, Ildemaro Vargas is actually a little more interesting than I realized for 2b reps (and I do mean a little). I don't think I cared enough to look him up last year when we acquired him.

Honestly rather go with him and/or Matt Duffy/Giambrone as the extra infielder over Sogard. He's just not that good. Reminds me of Aaron Miles, which still haunts me.

[Cubswin11]

 

I hope it’s not Jeffress, don’t want to bank on his smoke and mirrors from last year. Hopefully it’s Kennedy, Rosenthal or Greene.

We watched David Robertson's session. I like him as a bounce back candidate.

Yeah if he is healthy and stuff looks there he’d be fine too. I think we were connected to him in FA or at a trade deadline in the last few years.

[Cubswin11]

The timing of the Workman deal is interesting if not really Cubs related anymore. The Cubs were reportedly at David Robertson's workout IIRC, so had some interesting. Coincidentally, both he and Workman feature the same three pitches (curveball, fastball, cutter) and use them similarly with a very north-south approach at their best. That the Cubs went Workman probably isn't a great sign for Robertson.

 

If this is the end for Robertson then I think he should be remembered as a badass most specifically for these two things: proooobably playing a low key but high impact role in the evolution of bullpen use way back with the 2009+ Yankees and more recently going through FA successfully without an agent

I’m fairly confident he came out and said repping himself was a mistake because he ended up not making as much and/or made some mistakes with some clauses.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Tatis just signed a 14 year deal

[cl smooth]

Tatis just signed a 14 year deal

 

For $340 million.

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR:

 

Biertempfel names Richard Rodriguez the “Pirates reliever most likely to be traded this spring.”

 

Rodriguez and Frazier would really strengthen the Cubs' roster. Hopefully Jed is on the phone.

[Cubswin11]

[jersey cubs fan]

this terrible offseason knows no end

[Post Count Padder]

It's really not a big deal in the end, but it annoys me that we just let Ervin go and his spot is probably going to Maybin. I think Ervin would've handled that spot better. Honestly still prefer having both of them to giving a few million to Marisnick but whatever.