2020 Playoff Race

[bukie]

There are now just 13 days left in the shortened season, and nobody has been eliminated yet from playoff contention, thanks to the expanded playoff format (though, fun fact, even under the old playoff format nobody would have been eliminated yet).

 

For those unfamiliar with this year's playoff format, here are the specifics:

- 8 playoff teams in each league, 16 overall (among 30 teams, so more than half the league)

- The first place teams in each division are seeded 1-2-3 according to record

- The second place teams in each division are seeded 4-5-6 according to record

- The next two best records in the league are seeded 7-8 according to record

 

That means that the worst division winner will get a higher seed than the best wildcard, regardless of record (so the Cubs and Braves will be seeded higher than the Padres/Dodgers runner up), and the worst second place team will get a higher seed than the best wildcard (so, the AL West runner up could finish under .500 and seed higher than a 35-25 Indians team that finishes 3rd in the AL Central).

 

There will also be no tiebreaker games this year, because pandemic, so tiebreakers will be as follows:

1. Best record in head to head games (obviously only applies to ties within the division)

2. Best record in divisional games

3. Best record in last 20 divisional games, then 21, then so on and so forth until the tie is broken.

 

That said, let's take a look at the standings right now:

 

AL East

1. Rays 30-17

2. Blue Jays 26-20

3. Yankees 26-21

4. Orioles 21-26

5. Red Sox 17-31

 

AL Central

1. White Sox 31-16

2. Twins 30-19

3. Indiana 26-21

4. Tigers 20-26

5. Royals 20-28

 

AL West

1. Athletics 30-18

2. Astros 23-24

3. Mariners 22-26

4. Angels 20-28

5. Rangers 17-30

 

NL East

1. Braves 28-20

2. Marlins 24-21

3. Phillies 23-23

4. Mets 21-26

5. Nationals 17-28

 

NL Central

1. Cubs 28-20

2. Cardinals 21-21

3. Brewers 21-25

4. Reds 23-26

5. Pirates 14-32

 

NL West

1. Dodgers 33-15

2. Padres 32-17

3. Giants 23-24

4. Rockies 21-25

5. Diamondbacks 17-31

 

Current Playoff seeds:

AL

1. White Sox 31-16

2. Rays 30-17

3. Athletics 30-18

4. Twins 30-19

5. Blue Jays 26-20

6. Astros 23-24

7. Indians 26-21

8. Yankees 26-21

 

NL

1. Dodgers 33-15

2. Cubs 28-20

3. Braves 28-20

4. Padres 32-17

5. Marlins 24-21

6. Cardinals 21-21

7. Phillies 23-23

8. Giants 23-24

[bukie]

Effectively, the Pirates, Red Sox, and Diamondbacks are out of the running despite being not mathematically eliminated, and the Rangers, Royals, Tigers, Orioles and Nationals are extreme long shots buoyed only by the rules of the expanded format. The remaining 21 teams are at least within 5 games of a playoff spot and have reasonable paths to the playoffs in one way or another.

[champaignchris]

I don’t want the Phillies in a 3-game series. They don’t have the pitching depth for a longer series, but in a 3-game series with Nola and Wheeler each starting one game, that leaves very little margin for error.

[Cubswin11]

[Ding Dong Johnson]

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[UMFan83]

I don’t want the Phillies in a 3-game series. They don’t have the pitching depth for a longer series, but in a 3-game series with Nola and Wheeler each starting one game, that leaves very little margin for error.

 

How do we feel about facing the Cardinals, rivarly bragging rights aside?

 

For some reason Flaherty, Hudson, Wainwright looks great on paper but doesn't really terrify me, especially if we can neutralize one of them with Darvish. The only hitter that truly scares me is Goldschmidt. They have other solid hitters but not ones that scare me. Of course they are probably saying the same thing about our lineup...

[soccer10k]

 

This is going to be wild. No off days within a series until the WS so the NLCS and ALCS will play 7 games in 7 days.

 

There will be 8 playoff games on Sept 30 and we for sure get 2 days in the Division Series where we get 4 playoff games.

[UMFan83]

 

This is going to be wild. No off days within a series until the WS so the NLCS and ALCS will play 7 games in 7 days.

 

There will be 8 playoff games on Sept 30 and we for sure get 2 days in the Division Series where we get 4 playoff games.

 

Insane that they've decided that during the season and after the deadline. That means we might see someone like Tyler Chatwood starting a deciding Game 5 in the NLDS

 

Whoever draws the Dodgers in that WC round better take them out while they have a chance.

[Cubswin11]

I don’t want the Phillies in a 3-game series. They don’t have the pitching depth for a longer series, but in a 3-game series with Nola and Wheeler each starting one game, that leaves very little margin for error.

 

How do we feel about facing the Cardinals, rivarly bragging rights aside?

 

For some reason Flaherty, Hudson, Wainwright looks great on paper but doesn't really terrify me, especially if we can neutralize one of them with Darvish. The only hitter that truly scares me is Goldschmidt. They have other solid hitters but not ones that scare me. Of course they are probably saying the same thing about our lineup...

I wouldn’t mind playing them at all. They aren’t that good and they will have played all these games here leading in to it. They likely have to be playing and trying hard through the final series too so it’s possible their rotation/bullpen can’t be entirely lined up and rested.

 

I think I’d rank preferred opponents in round 1 as:

 

1. Giants

2. Cardinals

3. Rockies

4. Marlins

5. Mets

6. Phillies

7. Brewers (I don’t want to have to deal with their nonsense, despite them being the worst team listed here).

8. Reds (Bauer, Gray, Castillo in a 3 game series wouldn’t be fun).

[soccer10k]

No reseeding is confirmed also. So if the 6 beats the 3, they’ll still play the 2/7 winner.

[stitchface]

I don’t want the Phillies in a 3-game series. They don’t have the pitching depth for a longer series, but in a 3-game series with Nola and Wheeler each starting one game, that leaves very little margin for error.

 

How do we feel about facing the Cardinals, rivarly bragging rights aside?

 

For some reason Flaherty, Hudson, Wainwright looks great on paper but doesn't really terrify me, especially if we can neutralize one of them with Darvish. The only hitter that truly scares me is Goldschmidt. They have other solid hitters but not ones that scare me. Of course they are probably saying the same thing about our lineup...

 

you think we have a hitter that scares them?

[stitchface]

So, how will they pick who plays where?

 

The division series for the NL are either at Houston or Arlington. Do we have a preference? We seem to have a lot of lefty oppo power (not sure where that stands against other teams). How has the new park at Arlington played? NLCS and WS are both in Arlington.

 

AL to play in SD and LA for Division series and SD. Definite offense suppression there - maybe not good for White Sox.

[Bertz]

I don’t want the Phillies in a 3-game series. They don’t have the pitching depth for a longer series, but in a 3-game series with Nola and Wheeler each starting one game, that leaves very little margin for error.

 

How do we feel about facing the Cardinals, rivarly bragging rights aside?

 

For some reason Flaherty, Hudson, Wainwright looks great on paper but doesn't really terrify me, especially if we can neutralize one of them with Darvish. The only hitter that truly scares me is Goldschmidt. They have other solid hitters but not ones that scare me. Of course they are probably saying the same thing about our lineup...

I wouldn’t mind playing them at all. They aren’t that good and they will have played all these games here leading in to it. They likely have to be playing and trying hard through the final series too so it’s possible their rotation/bullpen can’t be entirely lined up and rested.

 

I think I’d rank preferred opponents in round 1 as:

 

1. Giants

2. Cardinals

3. Rockies

4. Marlins

5. Mets

6. Phillies

7. Brewers (I don’t want to have to deal with their nonsense, despite them being the worst team listed here).

8. Reds (Bauer, Gray, Castillo in a 3 game series wouldn’t be fun).

 

Yeah this looks right. Maybe quibble a bit with the exact order, but I think in a three game series those first four teams and those second four teams are very different levels of scary. Regular season the Cards are maybe the best of those 8 teams, but they have less top tier talent to leverage in a short series and will be at the end of their death march. They are clearly in the less scary tier IMO.

 

The Marlins are surprisingly relevant in that first round. They suck, but Lopez and Sanchez is actually a pretty good 1-2 punch.

[ConstableRabbit]

On that note I’m not sure anyone is licking their chops at the idea of facing Yu and Hendricks back to back. That’s a lot of smoke in a 3 game series.

[Cubswin11]

 

How do we feel about facing the Cardinals, rivarly bragging rights aside?

 

For some reason Flaherty, Hudson, Wainwright looks great on paper but doesn't really terrify me, especially if we can neutralize one of them with Darvish. The only hitter that truly scares me is Goldschmidt. They have other solid hitters but not ones that scare me. Of course they are probably saying the same thing about our lineup...

I wouldn’t mind playing them at all. They aren’t that good and they will have played all these games here leading in to it. They likely have to be playing and trying hard through the final series too so it’s possible their rotation/bullpen can’t be entirely lined up and rested.

 

I think I’d rank preferred opponents in round 1 as:

 

1. Giants

2. Cardinals

3. Rockies

4. Marlins

5. Mets

6. Phillies

7. Brewers (I don’t want to have to deal with their nonsense, despite them being the worst team listed here).

8. Reds (Bauer, Gray, Castillo in a 3 game series wouldn’t be fun).

 

Yeah this looks right. Maybe quibble a bit with the exact order, but I think in a three game series those first four teams and those second four teams are very different levels of scary. Regular season the Cards are maybe the best of those 8 teams, but they have less top tier talent to leverage in a short series and will be at the end of their death march. They are clearly in the less scary tier IMO.

 

The Marlins are surprisingly relevant in that first round. They suck, but Lopez and Sanchez is actually a pretty good 1-2 punch.

Yeah there’s a clear top and bottom 4. Maybe even just a top 3 preferred and bottom 5 not preferred depending on your feelings on the Marlins. The Mets and Phillies seem about the same to me so order them whatever way. Mets have the best pitcher and better pen, Phillies have a deeper rotation and worse pen. Offenses feel about the same with maybe a slight Mets edge (no idea what the numbers say).

[Andy]

So, how will they pick who plays where?

 

The division series for the NL are either at Houston or Arlington. Do we have a preference? We seem to have a lot of lefty oppo power (not sure where that stands against other teams). How has the new park at Arlington played? NLCS and WS are both in Arlington.

 

AL to play in SD and LA for Division series and SD. Definite offense suppression there - maybe not good for White Sox.

The bracket says which series will be where. Since we're not going to be the 1 seed, we'd be in Houston for the LDS if we're still playing.

[Brian707]

Why are NL playoff teams playing in AL ballparks and vice versa?

 

Also being 2020 this is definitely the year for a all Chicago World Series

Edited September 15, 2020 by Brian707

[Cubswin11]

Why are NL playoff teams playing in AL ballparks and vice versa?

 

Also bring 2020 this is definitely the year for a all Chicago World Series

Probably to keep a team from playing in a home stadium and make it as neutral as possible

[Brian707]

Makes sense.

 

Marlins have never lost a playoff series, that streak will end this year.

[stitchface]

Makes sense.

 

Marlins have never lost a playoff series, that streak will end this year.

 

For sure, but also Sixto Sanchez might get them past the first round. In a greatish year for rookie pitchers, he's easily the one who might take over a playoff series

 

kind of tough for a pitcher to take over a playoff series with no rest days, isn't it?

[PackLandVA]

Was thinking AL teams that are HR-hitting teams might struggle in San Diego and LA. I've always thought those stadiums were not overly friendly for HRs, at least not during the night when the air is cooler. But it looks like LAD and SD lead the league in HRs thus far. Maybe the numbers are skewed because just about all of the games have been played during record heat out west. As temps cool in the evening, could prove a factor for teams like the White Sox, Twins and Yankees. Edited September 15, 2020 by PackLandVA

[NonProfitCow]

Was thinking AL teams that are HR-hitting teams might struggle in San Diego and LA. I've always those stadiums were not overly friendly for HRs, at least not during the night when the air is cooler. But it looks like LAD and SD lead the league in HRs thus far. Maybe the numbers are skewed because just about all of the games have been played during record heat out west. As temps cool in the evening, could prove a factor for teams like the White Sox, Twins and Yankees.

Could also be because both teams are full of players who knock the horsefeathers out of the ball.

[stitchface]

Was thinking AL teams that are HR-hitting teams might struggle in San Diego and LA. I've always those stadiums were not overly friendly for HRs, at least not during the night when the air is cooler. But it looks like LAD and SD lead the league in HRs thus far. Maybe the numbers are skewed because just about all of the games have been played during record heat out west. As temps cool in the evening, could prove a factor for teams like the White Sox, Twins and Yankees.

Could also be because both teams are full of players who knock the horsefeathers out of the ball.

 

 

easily checked with park factors. SD has definitely been a tough place to hit home runs.

[stitchface]

surprising. http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor

 

 

2019 numbers suggest above is sample size issue

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2019/sort/HRFactor

[soccer10k]

Think I'm going to take the 30th off work. 8 guaranteed playoff games including 4 elimination games is just too tempting. Could have 8 the next day also but that's pretty unlikely.