Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If you're trading Bryant you're giving up on 2020 anyway, so who cares if you get "too many" platoon centerfielders?

 

I mean, in the nihilistic sense you're right that 2020 decisions are less important if you trade Bryant, but you also want to allocate your plate appearances the best you can, even if only to set up 2021 to be as good as possible. I also suspect that even if it is ultimately true that trading Bryant functionally punts 2020, the front office is still going to optimize the 2020 roster after trading him, compared to how, say, the 2014 roster was built.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If you squint, finding out that nobody really wants to pay a premium for Kris Bryant is almost funnier than the Cubs having to trade him.

[Regular Show]

Here is a sneaking suspicion I have that makes trading Bryant an even worse idea than it already is.

 

- Multiple outlets talking about how trading Bryant is something more likely to happen in several weeks, after the grievance is known and the third base market thins out

- Trading Bryant is easily the most consequential decision you'll make this offseason, and the return you get you don't want to accidentally double up

- As a result, it's possible that a Bryant trade is holding up other moves too. For example if you're potentially getting Pache/Waters from Atlanta, is signing Shogo a good idea? Do you take CF off the table in a potential Contreras trade? It means you miss out on trades and potentially FA you might really like because you can't afford to double up. This exists to a lesser extent with pitching too. Do you trade Contreras for Lamet(a fairly risky arm) when you might be getting Fried for Bryant? You can work around 'excess' pitching easier than excess center fielders, and in that specific example your best bet is probably trading Quintana, but now you're doing so in like January when you probably aren't optimizing the return because teams have already done their mid-market shopping.

 

Don't trade Bryant.

 

Look, I get you really don't want the Cubs to trade Bryant, but it's going to happen... Just make your peace with that fact now.

 

The ruling on his service time issues will happen in early January and the trade will happen shortly after that (KB probably loses that fight). The parameters of the trade will have been established by then.

 

I won't say whether it's smart or a good/bad move until I see the trade package we get back. It'll probably be the Braves or the Nats or maybe the Phillies (if they are willing to include Bohm in the package).

 

Not that it matters now, but I wanted the Cubs to go after Rendon super hard this offseason. If no money issues then sign Rendon and move KB to RF and make the necessary trades to free up cash to do so. If money is really tight I would sign Rendon and trade KB and whatever players are needed to make it happen, but even that wasn't possible (which completely sucks).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Look, I get you really don't want the Cubs to trade Bryant, but it's going to happen... Just make your peace with that fact now.

 

The ruling on his service time issues will happen in early January and the trade will happen shortly after that (KB probably loses that fight). The parameters of the trade will have been established by then.

 

I won't say whether it's smart or a good/bad move until I see the trade package we get back. It'll probably be the Braves or the Nats or maybe the Phillies (if they are willing to include Bohm in the package).

 

I mean, no, waiting until January to trade Bryant is even more galactically dumb than entertaining the idea of trading him in the first place. I'm capable of compartmentalizing as well as anyone but for something this incredibly foolish I'm not going to ignore that it is a terrible idea. Any potentially logical reasons for trading him go by the wayside with all the benefit you lose by waiting that long to make the deal.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Any potentially logical reasons for trading him go by the wayside with all the benefit you lose by waiting that long to make the deal.

...why?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Any potentially logical reasons for trading him go by the wayside with all the benefit you lose by waiting that long to make the deal.

...why?

 

Waiting to trade Bryant hurts your ability to get maximum value for him. Since the only logical reason to trade Bryant is predicated on thinking his value is at an artificial high, you're punting that benefit by waiting.

[jersey cubs fan]

Any potentially logical reasons for trading him go by the wayside with all the benefit you lose by waiting that long to make the deal.

...why?

 

Waiting to trade Bryant hurts your ability to get maximum value for him. Since the only logical reason to trade Bryant is predicated on thinking his value is at an artificial high, you're punting that benefit by waiting.

I don't see how this works.

 

His value is going to be based on how badly somebody needs an MVP caliber third basemen, and that will be determined by who is left off the list of teams that signed a free agent this year. It's not like you are in a situation where you have to trade him in January because you've begun to entertain offers.

 

His value is depressed without confirmation of his remaining years under control. Once that is clarified, you can negotiate with knowledge of who is gone and how valuable he is, then determine if you still want to trade him.

 

Trading him is a bad idea. But there's nothing wrong with waiting until January.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Any potentially logical reasons for trading him go by the wayside with all the benefit you lose by waiting that long to make the deal.

...why?

 

Waiting to trade Bryant hurts your ability to get maximum value for him. Since the only logical reason to trade Bryant is predicated on thinking his value is at an artificial high, you're punting that benefit by waiting.

What?

 

The way I see it...right now there is a market for 3B. Buyers and sellers. We don't HAVE to trade Kris. When the Merry-Go-Round ends, there is either going to be a team missing a 3B, or there are going to be some 3B looking for jobs. In one case, Kris's value has decreased. In the other, his value increased. I don't understand why January is some magically shitty month for trading him. It will either be better, worse, or the same as now. Why not stand pat and see if we can get an actual haul if someone gets desperate?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

...why?

 

Waiting to trade Bryant hurts your ability to get maximum value for him. Since the only logical reason to trade Bryant is predicated on thinking his value is at an artificial high, you're punting that benefit by waiting.

What?

 

The way I see it...right now there is a market for 3B. Buyers and sellers. We don't HAVE to trade Kris. When the Merry-Go-Round ends, there is either going to be a team missing a 3B, or there are going to be some 3B looking for jobs. In one case, Kris's value has decreased. In the other, his value increased. I don't understand why January is some magically horsefeathers month for trading him. It will either be better, worse, or the same as now. Why not stand pat and see if we can get an actual haul if someone gets desperate?

 

Because teams don't really get more desparate and up offers in practice, they find another way before then. Do you see more blockbuster trades in November/December or January/February? Do Free Agents tend to get more than expected by waiting until January/February, or less? Maybe you can talk yourself into it if we were in a 2018 world where no one has done anything at this point, but it's clear this is a pretty normal moving market.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

 

Waiting to trade Bryant hurts your ability to get maximum value for him. Since the only logical reason to trade Bryant is predicated on thinking his value is at an artificial high, you're punting that benefit by waiting.

What?

 

The way I see it...right now there is a market for 3B. Buyers and sellers. We don't HAVE to trade Kris. When the Merry-Go-Round ends, there is either going to be a team missing a 3B, or there are going to be some 3B looking for jobs. In one case, Kris's value has decreased. In the other, his value increased. I don't understand why January is some magically horsefeathers month for trading him. It will either be better, worse, or the same as now. Why not stand pat and see if we can get an actual haul if someone gets desperate?

 

Because teams don't really get more desparate and up offers in practice, they find another way before then. Do you see more blockbuster trades in November/December or January/February? Do Free Agents tend to get more than expected by waiting until January/February, or less? Maybe you can talk yourself into it if we were in a 2018 world where no one has done anything at this point, but it's clear this is a pretty normal moving market.

I don't especially care about the frequency that trades occur in January, party because I don't especially want to trade Bryant. The point is that, on average, Bryant's value shouldn't be expected to be lower in January than it is now. If that is indeed how it works, that the market for 3B demand dries up by then...then you just don't trade him. No biggie.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't especially care about the frequency that trades occur in January, party because I don't especially want to trade Bryant. The point is that, on average, Bryant's value shouldn't be expected to be lower in January than it is now. If that is indeed how it works, that the market for 3B demand dries up by then...then you just don't trade him. No biggie.

 

Correct, don't trade Bryant. Not what the post I originally replied to considers an option.

 

Look, I get you really don't want the Cubs to trade Bryant, but it's going to happen... Just make your peace with that fact now.

 

The ruling on his service time issues will happen in early January and the trade will happen shortly after that (KB probably loses that fight).

[jersey cubs fan]

Guys like Bryant also aren't typically available in any month. It's a very unique situation. A big market team that can more than afford to keep him, does not have to cave to lower offers. There's no way they have a "must move Bryant" mandate this offseason. Waiting until January is fine (as long as they ultimately don't trade him at all).

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I don't especially care about the frequency that trades occur in January, party because I don't especially want to trade Bryant. The point is that, on average, Bryant's value shouldn't be expected to be lower in January than it is now. If that is indeed how it works, that the market for 3B demand dries up by then...then you just don't trade him. No biggie.

 

Correct, don't trade Bryant. Not what the post I originally replied to considers an option.

 

Look, I get you really don't want the Cubs to trade Bryant, but it's going to happen... Just make your peace with that fact now.

 

The ruling on his service time issues will happen in early January and the trade will happen shortly after that (KB probably loses that fight).

I'm assuming Regular was being a touch hyperbolic there.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

KB won't be traded in January. He will be traded by next week.

[CubinNY]

Here is a sneaking suspicion I have that makes trading Bryant an even worse idea than it already is.

 

- Multiple outlets talking about how trading Bryant is something more likely to happen in several weeks, after the grievance is known and the third base market thins out

- Trading Bryant is easily the most consequential decision you'll make this offseason, and the return you get you don't want to accidentally double up

- As a result, it's possible that a Bryant trade is holding up other moves too. For example if you're potentially getting Pache/Waters from Atlanta, is signing Shogo a good idea? Do you take CF off the table in a potential Contreras trade? It means you miss out on trades and potentially FA you might really like because you can't afford to double up. This exists to a lesser extent with pitching too. Do you trade Contreras for Lamet(a fairly risky arm) when you might be getting Fried for Bryant? You can work around 'excess' pitching easier than excess center fielders, and in that specific example your best bet is probably trading Quintana, but now you're doing so in like January when you probably aren't optimizing the return because teams have already done their mid-market shopping.

 

Don't trade Bryant.

 

Look, I get you really don't want the Cubs to trade Bryant, but it's going to happen... Just make your peace with that fact now.

 

The ruling on his service time issues will happen in early January and the trade will happen shortly after that (KB probably loses that fight). The parameters of the trade will have been established by then.

 

I won't say whether it's smart or a good/bad move until I see the trade package we get back. It'll probably be the Braves or the Nats or maybe the Phillies (if they are willing to include Bohm in the package).

 

Not that it matters now, but I wanted the Cubs to go after Rendon super hard this offseason. If no money issues then sign Rendon and move KB to RF and make the necessary trades to free up cash to do so. If money is really tight I would sign Rendon and trade KB and whatever players are needed to make it happen, but even that wasn't possible (which completely sucks).

It's a bad, unneeded move regardless of what the Cubs get back.

[Regular Show]

I don't especially care about the frequency that trades occur in January, party because I don't especially want to trade Bryant. The point is that, on average, Bryant's value shouldn't be expected to be lower in January than it is now. If that is indeed how it works, that the market for 3B demand dries up by then...then you just don't trade him. No biggie.

 

Correct, don't trade Bryant. Not what the post I originally replied to considers an option.

 

Look, I get you really don't want the Cubs to trade Bryant, but it's going to happen... Just make your peace with that fact now.

 

The ruling on his service time issues will happen in early January and the trade will happen shortly after that (KB probably loses that fight).

 

It's certainly an option to keep Bryant, but I don't expect that to happen at this point. The Cubs are waiting for Josh Donaldson to sign somewhere and then for the ruling on the service time issues.

 

If the teams that lost out on Donaldson and Rendon aren't that interested in KB and aren't willing to give up enough then I'm sure Theo will move on and we keep KB (I just don't think that's happening). You can line up a trade right now and just wait to consummate the trade till next month (after the ruling). Sure, there's a chance it blows up but waiting till next month doesn't depreciate his value.

 

EDIT: Okay, yes his value does depreciate next month if KB wins and gets a favorable ruling on the service time issue. That's obvious and we all know that... No team is trading for him until that gets resolved however.

[Guancous]

The Cubs could swing a four way trade to get Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Gerrit Cole for less money and I would still think it was horsefeathers.

 

Every player in the deal better be smiling during every slow motion replay and have the integrity of Mr. Rogers.

 

Horsefeathers these horsefeathering horsefeathers.

[entbird79]

The Cubs could swing a four way trade to get Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Gerrit Cole

 

Paging Backtobanks

[17 Seconds]

I dont think i've ever been more disenchanted with the cubs organization

[David]

I dont think i've ever been more disenchanted with the cubs organization

 

i definitely have been... circa 2010-11 or so.

 

i don't think i can say i've been more pissed off at them than i am now, though.

[Cubswin11]

A Robles centric package skews towards an acceptable deal to me vs some of the more pitching/prospect ones that have been thrown around.

 

[Tryptamine]

Hey Theo, we want your young former MVP, but we don't want to give up anything you'd actually want. Do we have a deal?

[UMFan83]

Hey Theo, we want your young former MVP, but we don't want to give up anything you'd actually want. Do we have a deal?

 

As long as we can save $10m that we can spend on a couple of relievers who will probably suck.

[champaignchris]

A Robles centric package skews towards an acceptable deal to me vs some of the more pitching/prospect ones that have been thrown around.

 

 

You can almost squint and see a way in which a Robles-centered deal makes some sort of baseball sense.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Having a young center fielder who legit plays great defense and who easily can beat out slow grounders in the infield would be amazing.

 

I just don't think they will be willing to deal him, though.