Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

[squally1313]

I reeeaaaallllyyyyy hate the idea of trading Bryant but if the Phillies offer something ridiculous like Bohm, Howard, Kingery and one of Pivetta/Eflin/Seranthony, do you do it? There are rumblings the Phillies really want Bryant.

This is my favorite of the KB trade proposals I've seen, and by favorite I mean I still hate it and it's an incredibly dumb idea.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think if you really looked at it objectively, the price for two years of Kris Byrant on the trade market is high but not exhorbitantly high.

 

But I have no interest in looking at it objectively.

 

If I want to be especially hopeful, this is also a situation without much precedent. An MVP in his 20s with multiple years to free agency getting traded hasn't happened in the modern era. Maybe there's been others of similar quality that didn't quite win MVP, but 1) I'm too lazy to look that up and 2) I think the prestige is more than an arbitrary distinction.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think if you really looked at it objectively, the price for two years of Kris Byrant on the trade market is high but not exhorbitantly high.

 

But I have no interest in looking at it objectively.

 

If I want to be especially hopeful, this is also a situation without much precedent. An MVP in his 20s with multiple years to free agency getting traded hasn't happened in the modern era. Maybe there's been others of similar quality that didn't quite win MVP, but 1) I'm too lazy to look that up and 2) I think the prestige is more than an arbitrary distinction.

 

Don't forget the Piercing Blue Eyes bonus.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think if you really looked at it objectively, the price for two years of Kris Byrant on the trade market is high but not exhorbitantly high.

 

But I have no interest in looking at it objectively.

 

If I want to be especially hopeful, this is also a situation without much precedent. An MVP in his 20s with multiple years to free agency getting traded hasn't happened in the modern era. Maybe there's been others of similar quality that didn't quite win MVP, but 1) I'm too lazy to look that up and 2) I think the prestige is more than an arbitrary distinction.

 

Don't forget the Piercing Blue Eyes bonus.

 

Of course, ya gotta pay the Sparkle Tax

[Cubswin11]

I’d even flip out Kingery for Segura (have them pay some of Segura down or include Q or Chatwood going back).

 

Is this a Ricketts account? Don't get me wrong - this franchise probably deserves to go down trading Bryant during his prime in a salary dump*, but is this a Ricketts account?

 

*I know the Cubs get dollar store Bryant in Bohm and a couple pitchers, but still mostly a salary dump

No, it’s just an account based in reality and talking about things that could happen (not things I necessarily want to have happen) based off info we have and not your fairy tale land.

 

Of course I’d just prefer and want the Cubs to sign Rendon (move KB to RF) and trade any prospects of value for Lindor and Gray to really push the chips the next two years and call it an offseason. But that ain’t happening.

Edited December 11, 2019 by Cubswin11

[Cubswin11]

No, it’s just an account based in reality and talking about things that could happen (not things I necessarily want to have happen) based off info we have and not your fairy tale land.

 

I assume the basis for this being a thing that could happen is that it's terrible for the Cubs? The whole hub bub with keeping Bryant is that he will soon be gasping for air to fill his aged lungs at 30 while still trying to plunder the org of cap space, but Jean Segura gets that privilege in a realistic reality?

Segura is already cheaper than Bryant and locked in for 4 years at a reasonable/manageable number ($13-14 mil I think) and has some skills and position versatility that should age okay and he’s only 29. We still have to put major leaguers on the field and it would be nice to get some certainty at the ML level in a KB trade if we don’t go full blow up. Plus taking on Segura could help us move Q or hopefully Chatwood’s money and then do some other stuff that helps build out this and next year and get under the tax this year (if that’s something we have to do, not something I want to do or am advocating for but it’s the rumor out there so I think it’s worth thinking with that hat on for now when discussing possible moves).

[Clem Fandango]

I think if you really looked at it objectively, the price for two years of Kris Byrant on the trade market is high but not exhorbitantly high.

 

But I have no interest in looking at it objectively.

 

If I want to be especially hopeful, this is also a situation without much precedent. An MVP in his 20s with multiple years to free agency hasn't happened in the modern era. Maybe there's been others of similar quality that didn't quite win MVP, but 1) I'm too lazy to look that up and 2) I think the prestige is more than an arbitrary distinction.

 

Bryce Harper? Mookie Betts?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think if you really looked at it objectively, the price for two years of Kris Byrant on the trade market is high but not exhorbitantly high.

 

But I have no interest in looking at it objectively.

 

If I want to be especially hopeful, this is also a situation without much precedent. An MVP in his 20s with multiple years to free agency hasn't happened in the modern era. Maybe there's been others of similar quality that didn't quite win MVP, but 1) I'm too lazy to look that up and 2) I think the prestige is more than an arbitrary distinction.

 

Bryce Harper? Mookie Betts?

 

I edited, "getting traded" was a pretty important qualifier.

[Cubswin11]

Segura is already cheaper than Bryant and locked in for 4 years at a reasonable/manageable number ($13-14 mil I think) and has some skills and position versatility that should age okay and he’s only 29. We still have to put major leaguers on the field and it would be nice to get some certainty at the ML level in a KB trade if we don’t go full blow up. Plus taking on Segura could help us move Q or hopefully Chatwood’s money and then do some other stuff that helps build out this and next year and get under the tax this year (if that’s something we have to do, not something I want to do or am advocating for but it’s the rumor out there so I think it’s worth thinking with that hat on for now when discussing possible moves).

 

What certainty is there with Segura beyond his existence? He's put up anywhere from .616 OPS to a .867 OPS over the past 5 years and has seen it decline steadily over the past 3 including a big drop in OBP...Also why would the Cubs take on a bad contract on a 30+ year old specifically to not get the guy in his 20s under a probably very team friendly contract when it's all said and done? Like bad but realistic reason #3 to even take on Segura is the salary cap here, but then why would they want Segura in the first place if the salary cap is an issue, Bryant was a huge part of that issue, and the Phillies were offering Kingery instead of Segura..

I think it's reasonable to expect Segura to be a 2+ win player (at least on average) over his final remaining 4 years, he's not a superstar but he's a useful player that can play a few positions.

 

My only suggestion/guess was I could see how Segura being in a deal with them over Kingery. I'd bet they don't include Bohm and Howard if Kingery is in the deal, they love him and he's a real asset coming back and I'd personally rather have both Bohm and Howard over him in any deal we speculate about with the Phillies. Bohm and Howard is really what we're trading for here. Adding in Segura instead of Kingery could help get us an extra prospect or something, plus they could always throw in more money to cover some of his deal and it still saves us money anyways (it nets off $4-5 this year and $8+ mil next year when just compared to KB). It could open the door to including Q or especially Chatwood if we are under this mandate to cut salary this year, I don't think you can dump Chatwood in a deal that Kingery is in maybe you can with Q since he actually is a good pitcher. There's enough money coming off the next 2 years Segura's money shouldn't affect much in regards to the LT. It's really just an issue this year. And again these are all things I could see happening with what we think we know.

 

I don't really give a horsefeathers to talk about this any more. It's not something I care about to see happen or not want to see happen enough that it's worth much more discussion. Just was a passing comment on how I could see a Phillies-KB deal happen if one comes to pass.

[Clem Fandango]

 

If I want to be especially hopeful, this is also a situation without much precedent. An MVP in his 20s with multiple years to free agency hasn't happened in the modern era. Maybe there's been others of similar quality that didn't quite win MVP, but 1) I'm too lazy to look that up and 2) I think the prestige is more than an arbitrary distinction.

 

Bryce Harper? Mookie Betts?

 

I edited, "getting traded" was a pretty important qualifier.

 

Yeah, even if you account for players who had extensions in place when they were traded, that is still only one player (Stanton).

[Gilby]

Looking at age, slash line, and scouting reports I get why Drew Waters is highly thought of. But my goodness is that a lot of Ks for not many dongs. I could do without him in a theoretical deal.

[Derwood]

Super weird that the Rockies would be wanting to trade Arenado less than a year after signing him to a mega deal

[Cubswin11]

Super weird that the Rockies would be wanting to trade Arenado less than a year after signing him to a mega deal

It’s weird until you realize they’re run by horsefeathering morons with no real plan.

[Tryptamine]

Looking at age, slash line, and scouting reports I get why Drew Waters is highly thought of. But my goodness is that a lot of Ks for not many dongs. I could do without him in a theoretical deal.

 

A .162 IsoSLG out of a 20 YO up the middle defender with speed and patience who also hit for average in the Southern League was really really good. League average was .123...Nico Hoerner put up a .115 IsoSLG in the same league over fewer PAs by comparison

 

OTOH: I just noticed Pache's IsoSLG was almost .200 in that league! Still like Waters' overall bat more in the long run but get Pache now as a power/speed/defense guy above AA

 

Sadly Pache's speed is wasted because he has no idea how to utilize it on the bases.

[minnesotacubsfan]

horsefeathers TRADING BRYANT YOU GUYS horsefeathers THAT ALL DAY AND ALL NIGHT STOP TALKING LALALALALALALALALALALALA

[toonsterwu]

I don't particularly think they will trade Bryant (mainly because what the Cubs will likely want (an appropriate return for a in-his prime MVP caliber player), it's hard to see teams giving it to them since the chances of Bryant signing long-term before FA seem fairly slim), but I'm always fine with an organization keeping it's options open, particularly with the Cubs in a mild rut the last two years.

 

I still say exploring the Anthony Rizzo market is the way to go, however tough it may be, considering position, likely return, what's remaining on the deal. What I'd sort of be intrigued with is moving Rizzo and seeing if we can cobble together a deal for Trey Mancini and Mychal Givens (and moving Mancini to first). I've got no real feel for what Mancini/Givens would cost, though.

[Cubswin11]

So Rendon sets the market as 29/30 year old 3B FA At 7/245, KB is owed $40 mil +/- next two years through Arb. 9/290 extension it is, get it done idiots.

[Tryptamine]

So Rendon sets the market as 29/30 year old 3B FA At 7/245, KB is owed $40 mil +/- next two years through Arb. 9/290 extension it is, get it done idiots.

 

No thanks. He's not as good as Rendon and reaches FA older than Rendon did.

[Cubswin11]

So Rendon sets the market as 29/30 year old 3B FA At 7/245, KB is owed $40 mil +/- next two years through Arb. 9/290 extension it is, get it done idiots.

 

No thanks. He's not as good as Rendon and reaches FA older than Rendon did.

Rendon hit FA at 29.6, KB will hit it at 29.11 He’s gonna be .5 years older. I’d give him the Rendon deal today and take out the Arb years for 9/290. Easy decision for me.

[toonsterwu]

Anyhow, with Rendon off the table, we'll probably see soon enough whether there's any legs to this. Donaldson should move fast - I'm guessing Nationals nab him and announce it soon.

 

Phillies and KB, which was mentioned above, makes sense, as they are desperate to push forward and Alec Bohm probably needs a bit more time. With Harper and a big-spending owner, they would have as good a chance to keep Bryant around (would sort of make me chuckle if Harper and Bryant ended up uniting there). Still, I have a hard time seeing anyone offer an arm and a leg with Kris Bryant headed to FA, and it's almost impossible to imagine Kris Bryant not testing the waters. Bohm and Kingery (and Howard? I've got a hard time seeing the Phillies offer two, let alone all three, but maybe they are that desperate. Don't really love the arms they could offer, tbh, but that's because I'm not huge on any of those guys (not saying they aren't good arms).

 

They are the only team that makes some sense (in terms of desperation) and potential fit for Cubs needs (some young arms, some pen arms, a useful bat).

[Deeg]

I think the Braves also make quite a bit of sense, and I wouldn't rule the Dodgers out either.

[Cubswin11]

I think the Braves also make quite a bit of sense, and I wouldn't rule the Dodgers out either.

I’m hoping the Rangers end up with Donaldson, they don’t have the pieces to get KB. That leaves Nats, Braves, Phillies, Twins, Dodgers and probably the vaunted mystery team or two that all have enough to offer to make sense of a deal, IMO. If we are going to go down this unwanted path might as well keep the most options open.

[HawkeTrackler]

vaunted mystery team

 

Don't you put that evil on me

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Here is a sneaking suspicion I have that makes trading Bryant an even worse idea than it already is.

 

- Multiple outlets talking about how trading Bryant is something more likely to happen in several weeks, after the grievance is known and the third base market thins out

- Trading Bryant is easily the most consequential decision you'll make this offseason, and the return you get you don't want to accidentally double up

- As a result, it's possible that a Bryant trade is holding up other moves too. For example if you're potentially getting Pache/Waters from Atlanta, is signing Shogo a good idea? Do you take CF off the table in a potential Contreras trade? It means you miss out on trades and potentially FA you might really like because you can't afford to double up. This exists to a lesser extent with pitching too. Do you trade Contreras for Lamet(a fairly risky arm) when you might be getting Fried for Bryant? You can work around 'excess' pitching easier than excess center fielders, and in that specific example your best bet is probably trading Quintana, but now you're doing so in like January when you probably aren't optimizing the return because teams have already done their mid-market shopping.

 

Don't trade Bryant.

[jersey cubs fan]

Here is a sneaking suspicion I have that makes trading Bryant an even worse idea than it already is.

 

- Multiple outlets talking about how trading Bryant is something more likely to happen in several weeks, after the grievance is known and the third base market thins out

- Trading Bryant is easily the most consequential decision you'll make this offseason, and the return you get you don't want to accidentally double up

- As a result, it's possible that a Bryant trade is holding up other moves too. For example if you're potentially getting Pache/Waters from Atlanta, is signing Shogo a good idea? Do you take CF off the table in a potential Contreras trade? It means you miss out on trades and potentially FA you might really like because you can't afford to double up. This exists to a lesser extent with pitching too. Do you trade Contreras for Lamet(a fairly risky arm) when you might be getting Fried for Bryant? You can work around 'excess' pitching easier than excess center fielders, and in that specific example your best bet is probably trading Quintana, but now you're doing so in like January when you probably aren't optimizing the return because teams have already done their mid-market shopping.

 

Don't trade Bryant.

If you're trading Bryant you're giving up on 2020 anyway, so who cares if you get "too many" platoon centerfielders?