2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

[Cubswin11]

If you're optimistic about him leaving Petco and getting some different coaching, Margot might hit for average and put up solid OBPs with some surprising power and more contact than most Cubs hitters to go with GG caliber defense in CF

 

 

His stats show he hits better and with more power at Petco.

 

Home - .245/.313/.400/.713

Away - .251/.290/.388/.678

 

in 2019, margot had a wRC+ of 69 at home (nice) and 95 on the road, FWIW. wOBA of .270 at home vs .319 on road.

 

his walk rate at home was almost double his road walk rate though, which is weird.

Given his pretty extreme splits vs LHP and RHP it would be interesting to see the breakdown if he faced a disproportionate amount of one or the other home vs road to maybe explain some of the home/road splits.

[Bertz]

 

It's not hard to see how a guy with Shogo's profile can flame out (just look at Jon Jay), but man I'm gonna be real ticked if we pass on him at 3/15.

[Cubswin11]

 

It's not hard to see how a guy with Shogo's profile can flame out (just look at Jon Jay), but man I'm gonna be real ticked if we pass on him at 3/15.

Yup, that’s no money. Non-tendering Russell and Almora basically makes it a net even (or even saves us some) money on the AAV. His profile, on the surface, seems like a great fit and the CF market is non-existent. The only issue I have with him, as I’ve mentioned before is he’s a LHH so finding a RHH who can handle CF is still a need but maybe we can lower the bar to a Pillar type if he’s non-tendered or a Lagares, Broxton, Maybin type on a cheap deal. Margot would still be a great add with Akiyama if he’s reasonably available.

[Backtobanks]

 

It's not hard to see how a guy with Shogo's profile can flame out (just look at Jon Jay), but man I'm gonna be real ticked if we pass on him at 3/15.

Yup, that’s no money. Non-tendering Russell and Almora basically makes it a net even (or even saves us some) money on the AAV. His profile, on the surface, seems like a great fit and the CF market is non-existent. The only issue I have with him, as I’ve mentioned before is he’s a LHH so finding a RHH who can handle CF is still a need but maybe we can lower the bar to a Pillar type if he’s non-tendered or a Lagares, Broxton, Maybin type on a cheap deal. Margot would still be a great add with Akiyama if he’s reasonably available.

 

I mentioned earlier that Maybin would be a good pickup no matter what we end up doing with CF. I think he would be a veteran bat off the bench and could fill in anywhere in the OF.

[Bertz]

 

Interesting. Like Brett says I doubt it's the pitcher, as adding a third swingman with no minor league options to the roster seems....suboptimal. Kikuchi seems unlikely but could make sense depending on the makeup of the rest of the bench. So that likel leaves Tsutsugo. He gets compared frequently to Schwarber, so backfilling after a Kyle trade is possible. It's also possible they just like his bat and will make it work like they did with Castellanos. It's even more palatable with the extra bench spot in 2020. A bench of:

 

Vic

Happ (as the backup CF)

Bote

Tsutsugo

TBD 2B Option (Nico eventually starting there)

 

Would rock. It lacks the defensive minded backup CF option you'd probably like, but otherwise checks all the boxes.

[Tryptamine]

Correct me if I"m wrong but Tsusugo is supposedly barely even passable at 1B right? Unless they're moving Rizzo I just don't see how it could work.

[Bertz]

Correct me if I"m wrong but Tsusugo is supposedly barely even passable at 1B right? Unless they're moving Rizzo I just don't see how it could work.

 

Sounds like he's a bad infielder and a below average but playable corner outfielder. So I'd imagine it would work like having Castellanos on the roster, except he'd have to push others for PT rather than being an everyday guy from jump.

 

It's probably not how I'd construct the roster, but if the FO thinks he's an impact bat and the market's undervaluing him I understand adding this particular square peg. And hell, the Brewers were able to make Ryan Braun, Eric Thames, and Jesus Aguilar all work on a 25 man roster for the better part of the last two years; with the extra bench spot in 2020 it should be that much easier.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

It's not hard to see how a guy with Shogo's profile can flame out (just look at Jon Jay), but man I'm gonna be real ticked if we pass on him at 3/15.

 

Ryan Sweeney is the backup plan

[Tryptamine]

MLB.com lists the Brewers as a possible landing spot for Lindor and has Bryant at the top of a speculative list of stars that might get traded. They also include Trey Mancini on the list. This seems really legit

 

Who could the Brewers possibly trade for Lindor? I can't imagine they're going to move Hiura or Woodruff, Burne's value is in the tank and, while a nice prospect, Turang certainly isn't the lead piece in a Lindor deal. I just can't see how they could get it done unless the Indians want a quantity package of guys like Burnes,Grisham,Peralta and Turang.

[Cubswin11]

The Braves are trying to out do the Rockies from two offseasons age. Between Smith, Melancon, Greene and Martin that’s like $50-60 mil in RPs just for this year.

 

[Bertz]

The Braves are trying to out do the Rockies from two offseasons age. Between Smith, Melancon, Greene and Martin that’s like $50-60 mil in RPs just for this year.

 

 

I liked Martin the most of the mid level FA bullpen arms, but that being said after Will Smith no reliever on the FA market this year was particularly notable.

 

This may be a good sign for the market though. The last two years relievers signed way before everyone else, but even that was a week or two into December. If we're a few weeks ahead of the last two winters hopefully that pace keeps up.

[Cubswin11]

The Braves are trying to out do the Rockies from two offseasons age. Between Smith, Melancon, Greene and Martin that’s like $50-60 mil in RPs just for this year.

 

 

I liked Martin the most of the mid level FA bullpen arms, but that being said after Will Smith no reliever on the FA market this year was particularly notable.

 

This may be a good sign for the market though. The last two years relievers signed way before everyone else, but even that was a week or two into December. If we're a few weeks ahead of the last two winters hopefully that pace keeps up.

Yeah I had interest in Martin, don’t think I would’ve even wanted him at this 2/14 number which isn’t bad but I think right now I’m fine bringing Pedro back on a cheap 1 year deal, doing the minor league deal for Morrow, look for a Wick/Wieck type low key trade, acquire a RP in any trade we do for Willy/KB/Q/etc, then if there’s a guy out there in ST that’s willing to sign for 1 year cheaply do that. There’s nothing out there I care to commit more than 1 year and $10+ mil to at this point.

[Bertz]

[Cubswin11]

Yankees and Cubs among the last teams to announce their roster moves hopefully because Theo's getting a pitcher and not because because. Yankees maybe have 6 guys to roster with 4 spots open

Padres too, who we obviously have a bit of a rapport with. I think there’s a good chance we are working on finalizing at least a small move like Wick last year. Possible it’s a big one like Willy (especially with the Padres).

[Bertz]

https://twitter.com/WContreras40/statuses/1197339632469512193

 

Probably just happy for his little brother, but worth keeping an eye on

[Post Count Padder]

Abreu staying with the White Sox, 3 years $50 mil

[Brian]

Seems like not a great idea when they already had him on the QO for his age 33 season.

[squally1313]

If I'm a White Sox fan, there better be some trades coming. They drafted a first baseman, Vaughn, 3rd overall like, a year ago, and he's close to being ready. And then you have Zack Collins, drafted 10th overall, who came up as a catcher but looks to be more of a Schwarber type, emergency only catcher. So now you have Abreu, Vaughn, Collins, James McCann, and Grandal, a 31 year old catcher, all under control for the next three years, and that's before looking at Eloy, who is a disaster in the outfield.

[PackLandVA]

..... and that's before looking at Eloy, who is a disaster in the outfield.

 

Only when he's not on the DL with some leg injury.

[Bertz]

 

He really is an absolutely perfect fit for the roster. The problem is paying a price reflective of what he actually is rather than what the Royals want to pretend he is.

[Bertz]

 

He really is an absolutely perfect fit for the roster. The problem is paying a price reflective of what he actually is rather than what the Royals want to pretend he is.

 

Just looking for clarification: What are we...not pretending...he actually is?

 

He's a solidly above average player on a nice contract, while most indications have been that the Royals want a star type return for him. Could be just simple Negotiating 101, but if it's not the two teams are not going to be able to match up.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I too would be very happy to get 2018-2019 Whit Merrifield. Unfortunately what is available is 2020-2022 Whit Merrifield and I’m way more pessimistic on that guy. Pop up non-prospect with no power or defensive value hanging on to his contact ability after turning 31 seems like a risky proposition. And if you want to be risky with that profile, you have Hoerner right there.

[Tim]

 

He really is an absolutely perfect fit for the roster. The problem is paying a price reflective of what he actually is rather than what the Royals want to pretend he is.

No thanks. If he has a .310 BABIP instead of .350, he's a below average player.

 

I don't believe that as he progresses into his thirties he'll be able to maintain that kind of rate on balls in play. His speed is already a bit in decline, he doesn't make *that* much contact, and he's still going to cost a lot to acquire. I'd much rather take a spin on Gennett playing healthy this year (assuming a pillow-type contract for him to re-establish value).

[Bertz]

He's a solidly above average player on a nice contract, while most indications have been that the Royals want a star type return for him. Could be just simple Negotiating 101, but if it's not the two teams are not going to be able to match up.

 

We're like 3 sentences removed from him being called the absolute perfect player to add to this hopefully WS contending roster in 2020. Why is this a crazy ask?

 

Because if he's an above average player the cost should be commensurate with that instead of with a star. His skillset is not so unique as to demand a premium beyond its raw value.

 

In other words, it would be really nice to have a ~2.5 win guy who can cover either 2B or CF, given that there's going to be uncertainty at both spots entering the year. It's not so nice though that I'd pay ~4 win prices.

[Tim]

I still don't get how this adds up at all:

 

- He's supposedly the perfect fit for the Cubs

- He's supposedly a CF option at a time when the league's short on CF options as a whole (47 games there in the MLs btw, 31 in 2020)

- Even if not a full time CF, he's an upgrade at 2B for sure

- I'll take a wild guess and assume he's also viewed as a leadoff option

- He's cheap

- He's cheap for multiple years

- He's certain

 

Despite all this, Merrifield should be valued by the Royals in a trade with the Cubs as any 2.5 WAR player might be? Anything more and they're...overvaluing Merrifield?

Did you read my post?