6/19/19 - White Sox (Gioloto) at Cubs (Lester) - 7:05 CDT - ABC 7

[PackLandVA]

Cubs' offense facing Gioloto - what could go wrong?

 

Derwood, start warming up.

 

[Cubswin11]

Pray for rain

[Derwood]

 

Derwood, start warming up.

 

Christ, already?

[Schwarber Fan]

I know, I know, but...

 

A rainout wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Miss Giolito, our dead bats probably wouldn’t touch him in this weather anyway, and give the guys another day off to figure their horsefeathers out.

[UMFan83]

Come on you guys know how baseball works. We light him up for like 8 runs in 4 innings tonight and then score 3 runs total in the Mets series.

[Soul]

As bad as it seems, I can imagine Crew fans are pretty frustrated they haven't been able to take advantage.

 

On the other hand they've got to feel lucky to be in 1st place with a sub 10 diff. All but one of the other 1st place teams are at least 10x above that.

[BigSlick]

Cubs offense has transformed once again into late era 2018 Cubs offense. Unacceptable. Sacrifices for the Red God, at once

[Sammy Sofa]

Guys, Baez might be dying.

 

I just saw that his line over the last month is .204 .228 .398 .626.

 

[Cubswin11]

Guys, Baez might be dying.

 

I just saw that his line over the last month is .204 .228 .398 .626.

 

He looks like complete horsefeathers lately, I’m worried. I wonder if the little extra wear and tear of playing SS is affecting him a little.

[Sammy Sofa]

Also frustrating: Rizzo and (especially) Bryant have been putting up baller lines for the last 2 weeks-ish, and this is the total result we're getting. Baez has been bad, Willson is hopefully snapping out of his funk, and Schwarber's lines are bolstered by a ridiculous slugging % that offsets how terrible his BA and OBP are in that time. They could really use at least one other person to get hot to help out the Big Two.

[Sammy Sofa]

Guys, Baez might be dying.

 

I just saw that his line over the last month is .204 .228 .398 .626.

 

He looks like complete horsefeathers lately, I’m worried. I wonder if the little extra wear and tear of playing SS is affecting him a little.

 

His generally 110% at all times-style of play has worried me for a while; as awesome as it is, it's just not sustainable health-wise. I think he could definitely due with some extra time off, by the MI is such an OF-ian botch job now that they're extra fucked if he doesn't play as much.

[ConstableRabbit]

Also frustrating: Rizzo and (especially) Bryant have been putting up baller lines for the last 2 weeks-ish, and this is the total result we're getting. Baez has been bad, Willson is hopefully snapping out of his funk, and Schwarber's lines are bolstered by a ridiculous slugging % that offsets how terrible his BA and OBP are in that time. They could really use at least one other person to get hot to help out the Big Two.

Schwarber has been an absolute beast over the last two weeks.

[weis21]

Miss Giolito

 

she would mow these cubs down right now, too

[Sammy Sofa]

Also frustrating: Rizzo and (especially) Bryant have been putting up baller lines for the last 2 weeks-ish, and this is the total result we're getting. Baez has been bad, Willson is hopefully snapping out of his funk, and Schwarber's lines are bolstered by a ridiculous slugging % that offsets how terrible his BA and OBP are in that time. They could really use at least one other person to get hot to help out the Big Two.

Schwarber has been an absolute beast over the last two weeks.

 

Right, as I described:

 

.262 .289 .667 .956

 

Then this past week:

 

.235 .235 .588 .824

 

Over the last month his OBP is barely over .300. I seriously doubt anyone here thinks these are realistic or sustainable lines.

Edited June 19, 2019 by Sammy Sofa

[ConstableRabbit]

Miss Giolito

 

she would mow these cubs down right now, too

I'd hit a homer off of that

[squally1313]

Also frustrating: Rizzo and (especially) Bryant have been putting up baller lines for the last 2 weeks-ish, and this is the total result we're getting. Baez has been bad, Willson is hopefully snapping out of his funk, and Schwarber's lines are bolstered by a ridiculous slugging % that offsets how terrible his BA and OBP are in that time. They could really use at least one other person to get hot to help out the Big Two.

Schwarber has been an absolute beast over the last two weeks.

Eh....I'm usually the one defending Schwarber, but a .306 OBP over the past two weeks isn't really the path to long term success, and relatedly neither is his 4.1% walk rate and 24.5% K rate. It'll be interesting to see what his next few weeks look like....anecdotally it seems like he's gone from working deep counts and leaving things up to the umps a lot of the time to just attacking early and often, which has given him that power but obviously cost him walks. If pitchers start to adjust early, is he going to go back to the deep counts, or are we going to see a lot of bad swings early in the count?

[ConstableRabbit]

Also frustrating: Rizzo and (especially) Bryant have been putting up baller lines for the last 2 weeks-ish, and this is the total result we're getting. Baez has been bad, Willson is hopefully snapping out of his funk, and Schwarber's lines are bolstered by a ridiculous slugging % that offsets how terrible his BA and OBP are in that time. They could really use at least one other person to get hot to help out the Big Two.

Schwarber has been an absolute beast over the last two weeks.

 

Right, as I described:

 

.262 .289 .667 .956

 

Then this past week:

 

.235 .235 .588 .824

 

Over the last month his OBP is barely over .300. I seriously doubt anyone here thinks these are realistic or sustainable lines.

What two weeks are you looking at?

[Sammy Sofa]

The last 7/14/28 breakdowns at BR.

[Cubswin11]

I pointed it out yesterday and our offense sucks right now so it doesn’t matter, but there is some context with Giolito’s starts and the bump he’s seeing. He definitely seems to be taking a leap, regardless of competition, but 8 of his 13 starts have been vs the Royals, Indians and Jays (some of the worst offenses in baseball) and he also has 2 starts recently vs the broken and injured Yankees and Astros lineups. He’s probably going to shove us but I think his numbers have gotten a boost from poor competition.

[soccer10k]

Guys, Baez might be dying.

 

I just saw that his line over the last month is .204 .228 .398 .626.

 

He looks like complete horsefeathers lately, I’m worried. I wonder if the little extra wear and tear of playing SS is affecting him a little.

 

You can tie it to when he got hurt against Washington. He’s trying to play through it and it’s probably still bothering him. .953 OPS before and a .677 OPS after the injury.

[ConstableRabbit]

The last 7/14/28 breakdowns at BR.

Weird, I have something different from fangraphs:

.280 .302 .700

with a .399 wOBA and 148 wrc+

 

I will absolutely take that.

 

Regardless, him finding some power is a good thing and he has continued to hit the ball hard over that stretch and increased his LD%. A small sample like this is of course not predictive but I don't think anyone is worried about his walk rate over this stretch.

[NOLA]

So based on current trends of Giolito doing well against bad offenses, he should shut down the Cubs tonight?

[Sammy Sofa]

The last 7/14/28 breakdowns at BR.

Weird, I have something different from fangraphs:

.280 .302 .700

with a .399 wOBA and 148 wrc+

 

I will absolutely take that.

 

Regardless, him finding some power is a good thing and he has continued to hit the ball hard over that stretch and increased his LD%. A small sample like this is of course not predictive but I don't think anyone is worried about his walk rate over this stretch.

 

I am worried about his noticeably less than ideal OBP in 2017 and so far this year. His slugging and BA seem to be right in line with what you can expect/hope for from him, but that 30-40 point drop in OBP seems to really be the line he needs to walk (HI-OOOOOOHHHHHHHHH).

[squally1313]

The last 7/14/28 breakdowns at BR.

Weird, I have something different from fangraphs:

.280 .302 .700

with a .399 wOBA and 148 wrc+

 

I will absolutely take that.

 

Regardless, him finding some power is a good thing and he has continued to hit the ball hard over that stretch and increased his LD%. A small sample like this is of course not predictive but I don't think anyone is worried about his walk rate over this stretch.

 

Well I think the concern is that you're only going to get one or the other, and if that's the case, I'm not sure this is a better version, unless you think he can continue to put 35% of his fly balls out of the park.

[ConstableRabbit]

The last 7/14/28 breakdowns at BR.

Weird, I have something different from fangraphs:

.280 .302 .700

with a .399 wOBA and 148 wrc+

 

I will absolutely take that.

 

Regardless, him finding some power is a good thing and he has continued to hit the ball hard over that stretch and increased his LD%. A small sample like this is of course not predictive but I don't think anyone is worried about his walk rate over this stretch.

 

Well I think the concern is that you're only going to get one or the other, and if that's the case, I'm not sure this is a better version, unless you think he can continue to put 35% of his fly balls out of the park.

Yeah, I don't think that's super sustainable. I am also hopeful that it's not an either/or.