Week 7: Patriots @ Bears noon on CBS

[jersey cubs fan]

The Bears let a mediocre team off the hook on Sunday while baking in the sun. Now they have to face an elite offensive opponent that may be hitting its stride, and risk falling to 3-3. The dream of a division championship could come to a crashing halt this weekend. If the Bears get blown out, I don't see many people holding out hope. If they lose a squeaker, you can still fall back on the idea that many of their remaining opponents are flawed and nobody else is running away with the division, yet.

 

This is a huge test, the Bears are 3 point dogs and if the injury report doesn't go their way, that could expand. Mitch has to stop missing wide open receivers, Howard has to have a game, and the turnovers can't happen.

[Brian707]

Any notable injuries besides Mack? At it appears he should be fine

[UMFan83]

Brady has tormented the Bears throughout his career even though they only play ever 4 years.

 

2002: Bears blow a 27-6 lead in Champaign and lose 33-30 after Brady throws 2 TDs in the final 3 minutes

 

2006: Super Bowl bound Bears lose something like 17-13 at NE. Very close back and forth game throughout until Brady juked Urlacher out of his shoes when rushing for a despiration 1st on a 4th down. Pats ended up scoring to take the lead, and Sexy Rexy said 'F it I'm throwing downfield' and Samuel caught his third INT of the game

 

2010: The same year as the Bears last playoff appearance during a blinding snowstorm, the Pats score the first 36 points of the game and win 36-7. Brady threw for 369 yards and 2 TDs in the snow.

 

2014: Patriots score 45 of the first 52 points of the game and blow out the Trestman Bears. Brady has a 148.4 QB rating and throws for 352 yards and 5 TDs. Notable for Lamar Houston registering his first sack of the year late in the 4th against Jimmy G, and tears his ACL while celebrating.

[Brian707]

I could be wrong but I don't think the Bears beat New England since Super Bowl XX.

 

Edited: Bears won once in 2000.

[UMFan83]

I could be wrong but I don't think the Bears beat New England since Super Bowl XX.

 

Edited: Bears won once in 2000.

 

1-7 with an average margin of defeat of 15 points. Oh well I'll take the SB win

[BigbadB]

Not digging this matchup at all. Miami dinked and dunked their way to victory against what was supposed to be a ferocious defense. NE is not only better at Miami's "Bears game plan", but they now have deep threats to mix in if the Bears do make adjustments on the short and quick game. Brady won't be sitting in the pocket waiting for the pass rush to neutralize him. Fuller and Prince are going to have to bring their "A" game. I guess the Bears will just need to outscore NE to win this one.

[UMFan83]

I’m gonna predict something like 34-23 Patriots

[jersey cubs fan]

Any notable injuries besides Mack? At it appears he should be fine

this remains to be seen

[UMFan83]

Someone on the Pats forum described us offensively as the knock off Chiefs and geez that may be apt

 

Kelse is one of the top TEs in the league and the way Burton was supposed to be used was similar but in reality hasn't really been involved as much as I expected

 

Hill has 2 potential comparisons, either Gabriel or Cohen, but Hill is a better all around receiver and more dynamic playmaker (at least for now)

 

Sammy Watkins compares as the more traditional WR1 with Allen Robinson but seems to do it better

 

Maholmes is the young gun slinging QB but ahead in his development over Trubisky

 

And of course Nagy is an Andy Reid disciple.

 

The running games are different though, the Bears have the 2 headed monster where Hunt is an every down back (I think)

[Bertz]

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

 

Playoff odds still paint a pretty rosy picture. They saw Miami as a top 10 team coming into last week, so don't penalize us too bad for losing a squeaker to them on the road (even with the Osweiler factor). And the fundamentals (light schedule, lack of a scary division rival, bifurcated NFC) are all still as true today as they were Saturday.

 

I also don't think losing this week's game would really move the needle much on the division. The Vikings and Packers still have the Pats on the schedule too, and they have to go into Foxborough for their games. All three games are likely losses.

[David]

Trubisky through 5 games now

 

70.2% completion (4th in league)

7.83 y/att (10th in league)

11 TD (tied for 11th in league as one of few QBs who is already through a bye)

4 INT

105.6 rating (7th in league)

 

164 rushing yards on 25 attempts

1 rushing TD

 

Full season pace

4,035 yards

35 TD

13 INT

[minnesotacubsfan]

I think its fair to say hes meeting expectations

[David]

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[Bertz]

 

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

 

this is where DVOA gets me, KC's defense is near the bottom in ypg allowed if not THE bottom, and yet DVOA says they are #1. I understand yards allowed isn't a great indicator of what FO is trying to sell here, but that is such a variance I start to doubt their methods.

[Bertz]

 

 

this is where DVOA gets me, KC's defense is near the bottom in ypg allowed if not THE bottom, and yet DVOA says they are #1. I understand yards allowed isn't a great indicator of what FO is trying to sell here, but that is such a variance I start to doubt their methods.

 

DVOA is clumsily named, even though it has "defensive" in the name it is not just a stat for measuring defense. It's in the name to convey that the stat takes opposing defenses into account, but the wording can lead to people (perfectly reasonably IMO) making the mistake you did here. You're right about the Chiefs. As of last week they were 2nd in offense and 28th in defense. I assume at this point they're something like #1 and #25.

[minnesotacubsfan]

What does it stand for? I thought it was strictly defense?

 

Nvm. I looked it up. Its still surprising that KCs defense doesn’t factor into that more

[Wilson A2000]

This is the game where the Bears get beat pretty good. 34-21 Patriots. Mack is ineffective.

 

I hope I’m wrong.

[gflore34]

Don't believe the Bears will have many problems moving the ball and scoring, maybe the D makes a couple of stops and the Bears win 35-31?

 

Hell, if every Brewer starting is all of sudden Bob Gibson, the Bears can beat the Pats.

[David]

What does it stand for? I thought it was strictly defense?

 

Nvm. I looked it up. Its still surprising that KCs defense doesn’t factor into that more

 

They had the Bears 2nd or 3rd in the league overall even when they had the Bears' offense ranked 27th.

 

I'm surprised they have ST weighted heavily enough that KC edges out LAR.

 

Bears are up to 14th on offense, still 1st on defense, and 9th in ST (and, again, 3rd overall)

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

[jersey cubs fan]

[David]

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[Chocolate Milk]

No idea what to think about this game. Gut feel is that the Pats handle the Bears but Bears keep it respectable. I've been wrong with my pregame expectations for every game this year, though.

[minnesotacubsfan]

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Maybe this is because hes dead :(

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

 

Taking one Bellichek: hide em from/on the injury report