What if we miss on Bryce and Manny?

[davell]

This has been broached in a different thread. So, what do we do, if this is the case? We have needs and we have some money to spend too.......

 

In all likelihood, we'll make a trade or two, but it's impossible to predict those things. So, let's just figure this, as the scenario......

 

We trade Happ or Almora for a solid pen arm that's still pre-arb..... We move Duensing off the roster by attaching something small to him. And we non-tender Russell.

 

So, that would leave us around 50 mill in available funds to spend, to keep under the top end of the Luxury Tax.

 

C Contreras, Caratini

1B Rizzo

2B Zobrist, La Stella

SS Baez

3B Bryant, Bote

LF Schwarber

CF Almora or Happ

RF Heyward

 

SP Lester, Quintana, Darvish, Hendricks, Chatwood, Smyly, Montgomery, Mills

 

RP Morrow, Strop, Edwards, Cishek, Kintzler, Rosario, Webster, Maples, Norwood, solid guy we get for Happ or Almora

 

Possible Needs

 

Backup C, SS or guy that can at least be passable, an OFer possibly, or MAYBE a 3B, which moves Bryant to the OF. A starting pitcher or 2, depending on your confidence levels, and another pen arm of 2, also depending on your confidence...... Let's figure the pen arm we get in the Happ or Almora trade is pretty solid.

 

Let's figure no more trades. With 50 Mill to spend......

 

I'm trying to come up with figures that are fair, so bare with me, these won't be perfect, and may need some amending.

 

Catchers-Yasmani Grandal-4/72 Wilson Ramos -4/60, Kurt Suzuki-1/7, Matt Wieters-1/6, Brian McCann-1/6, Jonathan Lucroy-1/4,Rene Rivera-1/3,AJ Ellis-1/2

 

2nd Basemen- Jed Lowrie-2/32, DJ Lemahieu-3/36, Daniel Murphy-2/26, Brian Dozier-2/25, Asdrubal Cabrera-2/18, Marwin Gonzalez-3/27, Neil Walker-1/3, Josh Harrison-1/3

 

Shortstops- Eduardo Escobar- 3/33,Jose Iglesias-1/7, Freddy Galvis-1/6, Jordy Mercer-1/5, Adeiny Hecchavarria-1/3

 

3rd Basemen- Josh Donaldson- 3/51, Mike Moustakas-2/28, Adrian Beltre-1/15

 

Left Fielders- Michael Brantley- 2/32, Carlos Gonzalez-1/10

 

Center Fielders- AJ Pollock- 4/64, Andrew McCutcheon- 2/34, Adam Jones-1/12, Leonys Martin- 1/7

 

Right Fielders- Nick Markakis-1/15, Lonnie Chisenhall-1/10, Melky Cabrera-1/3

 

Long Ass Post- Will continue this after the game, with the Pitchers. Feel free to help change my mind on any contracts, if anyone sees this during the game.....

 

Starting Pitching- Kershaw-6/210, Patrick Corbin-5/105, Dallas Keuchel-5/85, Yusei Kikuchi- 4/64, Charlie Morton-2/36, JA Happ-3/42,

Hyun Jin Ryu-3/42, Cole Hamels-2/32, Nathan Eovaldi-2/24, Wade Miley-2/18, Lance Lynn-1/12, Gio Gonzalez-1/10, Derek Holland-1/10, Drew Pomeranz-1/10, Trevor Cahill-1/8, Matt Harvey-1/7, Clay Buccholz-1/7, Tyson Ross-1/5, Marco Estrada-1/5

 

Relief Pitchers- Craig Kimbrel-5/90, Andrew Miller-3/39, David Robertson-3/30, Cody Allen-3/30, Adam Ottavino-3/27, Zack Britton-2/24, Kelvin Herrera-2/20, Trevor Rosenthal-2/20, Jeurys Familia-2/18, Joaquin Soria-2/14,Joe Kelly-2/12, Justin Wilson-1/8, Shawn Kelley-1/8, Brad Brach-1/7, AJ Ramos-1/6, Tony Sipp-1/5, Jesse Chavez-1/5, Bud Norris-1/5, Brad Ziegler-1/4, Jake Diekman-1/4, David Phelps-1/4, Jerry Blevins-1/3, Zach Duke-1/3, Jorge Dela Rosa-1/3, Jaime Garcia-1/3, Adam Warren-1/3

 

So, there's my guesses. What can you do with 50 mill?

Edited September 28, 2018 by davell

[Cubswin11]

In this scenario I’d probably make Escobar one of my top targets although going after Donaldson to move KB to the OF would be interesting too as our bigger spend guy and then sign Mercer to be the utility guy. Whoever takes the cheapest 1 year deal of Lucroy, Rivera or Ellis would be my backup C choice, I don’t have a real preference other than we need one.

[jersey cubs fan]

Tank again

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Tank again

[The_Achiever]

I am intrigued by AJackson Pollack. Tired of CF being a virtual black hole.

[Sammys Boombox]

Wrong thread

[CyHawk_Cub]

What if we miss on Bryce and Manny?

 

ballgame

[davell]

Ok, all contract guesses are up.

[Bertz]

I'd guess Escobar and one of the higher end relievers. And probably try to do something creative to help our longer term cap situation. Similar to the Dodgers/Braves trade last winter.

 

One interesting possibility is Grandal. I love Willson, and don't totally believe this, but there's an argument to be made that our pitching staff's issues (aside from Chatwood obviously) fall in his lap. Signing Grandal and using Willson in trade to plug another hole might be shrewd. It's obviously not as extreme but a lot of the things that make us say "horsefeathers pitchers" apply to catchers as well, so I'm not super nervous about getting a little older at the position.

[davell]

I definitely want Chavez back. That's 5 mill. I'll take Hecchavarria at 1/3. 8 mill spent, sounds crazy, but I'll take Tyson Ross for the rotation. I think he's a good one year guy. That's 13 mill, give me Donaldson. The only other option of an impact bat. That's 30 mill. We need a healthy and consistent guy for the pen still, give me David Robertson at 10. Leaves 10 left over for the deadline. Or gives you the option to upgrade one of these spots a decent amount. But, I'd rather have that for midseason.

[Cubswin11]

Donaldson- 17

Mercer- 5

Lucroy- 4

Ottavino- 9

Chavez- 5

 

$40 million with ~$10 to play with. I’m fine with not adding to the rotation and going with the in house options/wait for the deadline in this scenario. LaStella would probably be non-tendered or traded to make room for Mercer in this scenario.

Edited September 28, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Cubswin11]

Davell, just realized Fiers isn’t on the list. He probably falls somewhere between the 2/18 Miley deal and 1/12 Lynn deal?

[davell]

Davell, just realized Fiers isn’t on the list. He probably falls somewhere between the 2/18 Miley deal and 1/12 Lynn deal?

 

Believe it or not, that dude has one more arbitration year left lol.

[Cubswin11]

Davell, just realized Fiers isn’t on the list. He probably falls somewhere between the 2/18 Miley deal and 1/12 Lynn deal?

 

Believe it or not, that dude has one more arbitration year left lol.

Well horsefeathers, I just assumed he was a FA since he’s like 34 and Fangraphs had him making 1/6 this year. Just assumed that was a FA deal and not an arb year.

[Cubswin11]

Also as just a general observation....... this relief pitching class is loaded. There’s definitely going to be some bargains if we wait it out.

[KrisBryantisaBeast]

If no Harper I would go after Pollack and some relievers.

[jersey cubs fan]

If no Harper I would go after Pollack and some relievers.

are you kidding me? Do you know how many pollacks it would take to drive in a run?

[d_money]

If no Harper I would go after Pollack and some relievers.

are you kidding me? Do you know how many pollacks it would take to drive in a run?

How many pollacks would it take to screw in a light bulb?

[Backtobanks]

Sign Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Cahill, Rene Rivera, and trade for Michael Lorenzen. Lots of money for other moves and lots of versatility for depth.

[soccer10k]

Sign Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Cahill, Rene Rivera, and trade for Michael Lorenzen. Lots of money for other moves and lots of versatility for depth.

 

Good call on Lorenzen. We need someone who actually knows how to hit dongs.

[champaignchris]

I’ll just assume it’s all part of their long term scheme to sign Mike Trout.

[Backtobanks]

Sign Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Cahill, Rene Rivera, and trade for Michael Lorenzen. Lots of money for other moves and lots of versatility for depth.

 

Good call on Lorenzen. We need someone who actually knows how to hit dongs.

 

 

That was my thought - reliever, spot starter, and pinch hitter all in one.

[toonsterwu]

I've got a legitimately tough time seeing them sign down Manny. Manny's going to prefer short, and it's quite possible the Phillies throw big bucks at him and give him short. I could possibly see another team or two emerging that will give him short, but the Phillies are the big money threat. Are we going to move Baez off short for Machado? I'm not so sure.

 

Harper's the interesting candidate. His public words seem to suggest that if the Nationals show him some love (that is, get aggressive with the bidding), he might stick around. With the Nationals surprisingly poor year (hey, thanks Dave Martinez for mismanaging that team ... there's a joke somewhere about Dave Martinez and clubhouse problems somewhere, probably), plus the emergence of Juan Soto, there is some thought as to whether or not they will pay through the roof for Harper. That said, the Harper market is likely to be more robust than Machado (IMO). For all the talk about the Cubs/Dodgers/Nationals/Phillies, I could see another 4-5 teams make a legitimate run, and it wouldn't surprise if a darkhorse team emerged.

 

If we fail to get Manny/Harper, I tend to think it's a focus on pitching. I'd guess they'd trade to go after a starter in the trade market (unless they keep Hamels around, but I've got my doubts on that), as I simply don't see them giving out the requisite long term deal to guys like Eovaldi/Corbin/Pomeranz or even Keuchel. Could be way off, but I just don't see it. There are a bevy of options I could see ... for example, still think the Diamondbacks/Cubs pair up relatively well. Hazen has some pitching in the system, moreso than hitting, at least, on the high end and close to ready. While it's not a sexy move, I wonder if bringing back Zack Godley might be a consideration at the right price. Depending on how the Braves/Phillies offseasons go, it wouldn't be incredibly shocking if they moved a young arm to fill other voids, looking internally to fill in the pieces. I tend to think if the Cubs trade for a starter, it might not be a flashy name, but will be a guy they can control for a few seasons.

 

After a SP, my guess would be that they would target a late inning pen arm ... and perhaps more. It wouldn't surprise me if they went after a big name, perhaps even someone like Andrew Miller.

 

Obviously, these moves wouldn't happen sequentially, so they'd probably target some sort of utility player Not that I'm going down memory lane, but someone like Marwin Gonzalez could be a useful depth piece if they opted to stay in house with their guys (for example, if they dealt Happ to get pitching).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I've got a legitimately tough time seeing them sign down Manny. Manny's going to prefer short, and it's quite possible the Phillies throw big bucks at him and give him short. I could possibly see another team or two emerging that will give him short, but the Phillies are the big money threat. Are we going to move Baez off short for Machado? I'm not so sure.

 

Harper's the interesting candidate. His public words seem to suggest that if the Nationals show him some love (that is, get aggressive with the bidding), he might stick around. With the Nationals surprisingly poor year (hey, thanks Dave Martinez for mismanaging that team ... there's a joke somewhere about Dave Martinez and clubhouse problems somewhere, probably), plus the emergence of Juan Soto, there is some thought as to whether or not they will pay through the roof for Harper. That said, the Harper market is likely to be more robust than Machado (IMO). For all the talk about the Cubs/Dodgers/Nationals/Phillies, I could see another 4-5 teams make a legitimate run, and it wouldn't surprise if a darkhorse team emerged.

 

If we fail to get Manny/Harper, I tend to think it's a focus on pitching. I'd guess they'd trade to go after a starter in the trade market (unless they keep Hamels around, but I've got my doubts on that), as I simply don't see them giving out the requisite long term deal to guys like Eovaldi/Corbin/Pomeranz or even Keuchel. Could be way off, but I just don't see it. There are a bevy of options I could see ... for example, still think the Diamondbacks/Cubs pair up relatively well. Hazen has some pitching in the system, moreso than hitting, at least, on the high end and close to ready. While it's not a sexy move, I wonder if bringing back Zack Godley might be a consideration at the right price. Depending on how the Braves/Phillies offseasons go, it wouldn't be incredibly shocking if they moved a young arm to fill other voids, looking internally to fill in the pieces. I tend to think if the Cubs trade for a starter, it might not be a flashy name, but will be a guy they can control for a few seasons.

 

After a SP, my guess would be that they would target a late inning pen arm ... and perhaps more. It wouldn't surprise me if they went after a big name, perhaps even someone like Andrew Miller.

 

Obviously, these moves wouldn't happen sequentially, so they'd probably target some sort of utility player Not that I'm going down memory lane, but someone like Marwin Gonzalez could be a useful depth piece if they opted to stay in house with their guys (for example, if they dealt Happ to get pitching).

 

With Soto, the Nationals are about as well-set to lose a Bryce Harper in his prime as any team could possibly be. Just wild.

 

Sounds like Atlanta is going to be a contender for Bryce too.

[toonsterwu]

The issue for the Nationals, IMO, is that, if they lose Bryce, it's going to be awfully hard to keep the window open, and the window is now with Scherzer in his prime. Yes, an OF of Soto/Robles/Eaton looks awfully nice, and then add in Rendon/Turner, and that's 5 solid young-ish pieces. Still, they'd have holes at 1st/2nd/C, along with at least needing 1 SP, and proabbly 2, and probably needing an addition or two in the pen as well. The argument would be that without Bryce, there'd be some more flexibility on spending, but I'd argue that

 

a) Money for Bryce isn't necessarily money that will be otherwise spent

b) Without Bryce, the team looks a bit more average on paper, in a NL East that is rapidly getting better (even the Marlins showed some signs of development, although they are probably 2-3 years away). Thus, it's harder to think that they'll be able to dip into FA and land guys they want without competition.

 

With Bryce, suddenly, Robles or Eaton can be flipped. It's a tough question on who (a healthy Eaton is a crucial cog on offense, but Robles offers more offensive potential and doesn't force Bryce to CF like Eaton does). I mean, Eaton could conceivably net them a hole, giving them a lot more flexibility.

 

____

 

If the bidding gets that high, I've got a tough time seeing Atlanta winning it. That said, the reality is, this is likely a 3 year deal couched in a longer frame, so maybe with all their youth, they'll put out the best up front package. If we don't get Bryce, I sort of hope Atlanta goes hard but falters, and then perhaps considers dealing a young SP for Happ.

 

The thing about a Harper deal is that, I wonder if a team can overwhelm on the "upfront" money and win a deal, even if the larger framework looks weaker.