The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

[davell]

If they DO deal Schwarber, I hope the return is more than just a good pen guy honestly.

[KingCubsFan]

Given the way that the game is changing, I'd pass on Hamels. He was great this year, but I'd rather spend every available dollar on Harper and the bullpen. Smyly/Montgomery is fine for the regular season. I'd look to add 3-4 legit pen arms, with Morrow being the only guy I'd definitely bring back.

[muntjack]

I really hate the idea of trading Schwarber. I feel like he's going to put up some monster seasons, and we aren't going to get a fair return.

[treebird]

I really hate the idea of trading Schwarber. I feel like he's going to put up some monster seasons, and we aren't going to get a fair return.

 

this is an extremely reductive line of thinking, but it’s the one i’m going with:

 

given all we have constantly heard about how much the front office specifically loves schwarber and how good he is at all their weird brain tests and stuff, if they think it is time to trade him and aren’t scared about missing out on monster seasons, it is probably time to trade him and we shouldn’t be scared about missing out on monster seasons.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'd look to add 3-4 legit pen arms

 

Oh, that's all?

[CP_414]

Maybe they will trade Schwarber, but Theo’s first complaint about the offense was that they stopped hitting homers and stopped taking walks in the 2nd half. Schwarber hit 26 HRs in 510 PAs and had a 15.3% walk rate. Getting rid of him does not help those problems.

 

Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I am hoping the “judge players by performance and not talent” thing isn’t about him. They gave about 1500 PAs between Russell, Almora, and Heyward this year. Russell should be gone for multiple reasons, Almora should either be traded or be put in a more strict platoon role, and Heyward had a better year, but he’s still bad. The contract is what it is, but you’ve just got to stop giving him 500 PA seasons. I hope that’s what he meant by judging players by performance. You can’t waste that many at bats on players that can’t hit.

[treebird]

about 1500 PAs between Russell, Almora, and Heyward this year.

 

groundhog day toaster in bath suicide gif

[imb]

I really hate the idea of trading Schwarber. I feel like he's going to put up some monster seasons, and we aren't going to get a fair return.

 

this is an extremely reductive line of thinking, but it’s the one i’m going with:

 

given all we have constantly heard about how much the front office specifically loves schwarber and how good he is at all their weird brain tests and stuff, if they think it is time to trade him and aren’t scared about missing out on monster seasons, it is probably time to trade him and we shouldn’t be scared about missing out on monster seasons.

 

part of me wonders if some of the over-the-top Schwarber love from the FA recently is as much about them knowing that he would ultimately be trade fodder if a Harper pursuit ever got real, so they needed to project this image of "oh we LOVE this guy. Would HATE to lose him" the entire time so it at least looked somewhat legitimate. Rather than it being December, us offering $400 million to Harper and then you suddenly have a bunch of "i guess we could move schwarber but the return would have to be ginormous because of his brain WAR"

[ConstableRabbit]

I really hate the idea of trading Schwarber. I feel like he's going to put up some monster seasons, and we aren't going to get a fair return.

 

this is an extremely reductive line of thinking, but it’s the one i’m going with:

 

given all we have constantly heard about how much the front office specifically loves schwarber and how good he is at all their weird brain tests and stuff, if they think it is time to trade him and aren’t scared about missing out on monster seasons, it is probably time to trade him and we shouldn’t be scared about missing out on monster seasons.

 

part of me wonders if some of the over-the-top Schwarber love from the FA recently is as much about them knowing that he would ultimately be trade fodder if a Harper pursuit ever got real, so they needed to project this image of "oh we LOVE this guy. Would HATE to lose him" the entire time so it at least looked somewhat legitimate. Rather than it being December, us offering $400 million to Harper and then you suddenly have a bunch of "i guess we could move schwarber but the return would have to be ginormous because of his brain WAR"

Now that's 4D chess I can get behind.

[Clem Fandango]

Schwarber will never put up monster seasons because the FO will not let him hit against LHP. The Cubs have committed to him being a platoon left fielder. His value is not nearly as high as we all want/perceive it to be.

[Sammy Sofa]

Because he can't hit LH pitchers.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Because he can't hit LH pitchers.

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[Ding Dong Johnson]

ooh, now do one for all of his other at bats against lefties!

[Tim]

ooh, now do one for all of his other at bats against lefties!

To be fair, the statement wasn't that he can't hit lefties consistently. Just that he couldn't do it.

 

 

 

 

My wife sometimes worries that I'm too literal.

[KingCubsFan]

I'd look to add 3-4 legit pen arms

 

Oh, that's all?

Jorge De La Rosa was our closer at the end of the year. We're starting from scratch.

[muntjack]

Eh he's 25, he's had 250 career PAs against lefties, and this year he had a .350 OBP against them. I'm not sure he's a lost cause.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

ooh, now do one for all of his other at bats against lefties!

 

http://www.57hits.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/World_Series-Game_2-Screenshot-2016-10-26-19.41.53.jpg

 

I'm just saying that the man pumps dongs. Never forget.

[Clem Fandango]

Because he can't hit LH pitchers.

 

Schwarber started 115 games in LF. 10 of them were vs. lefties. People who started in LF when Schwarber didn't:

 

Ian Happ - 27 games

Kris Bryant - 10 games (all in September, and likely because of the Murphy addition & Russell subtraction)

Ben Zobrist - 10 games

 

So Ian Happ was the go-to hitter to hit lefties instead of Schwarber, right?

 

Ian Happ vs. LHP: .202/.291/.317/.608

Kyle Schwarber: .224/.352/.303/.654

 

Also, his .352 OBP vs lefties was 6th best on the team for players with 50 or more AB's vs. lefties. Happ's .291 OBP was the worst. He may not hit dongs vs. lefties, but at least he can get on base. Getting Zobrist or Bryant out there obviously makes more sense, offensively, but their value is obviously being better used at other positions.

 

He's a "brainy" enough hitter that he should be able to make adjust and commit to being better vs. LHP. Hell, RIzzo sucked his first two years and then he excelled at hitting lefties because he made adjustments to do so. Schwarber spent a lot of time trying to fix that this past offseason but wasn't given the opportunity to prove himself. If you're going to platoon him with someone who is worse than he is, just keep him out there and let him figure it out or get someone who is, I don't know, actually better than he is vs. lefties (like Bryce Harper, maybe?).

 

#FREESCHWARBER

#ORATLEASATPLATOONHIMWITHSOMEONEWHOISNTIANHAPP

[Sammy Sofa]

Happ sucks against lefties, too; his splits are further argument that Joe is a horsefeathering dork when the obvious CF platoon was staring him in the face the ENTIRE horsefeathering TIME, not an endorsement of Schwarber getting more playing time.

[Sammy Sofa]

He's a "brainy" enough hitter that he should be able to make adjust and commit to being better vs. LHP. Hell, RIzzo sucked his first two years and then he excelled at hitting lefties because he made adjustments to do so. Schwarber spent a lot of time trying to fix that this past offseason but wasn't given the opportunity to prove himself. If you're going to platoon him with someone who is worse than he is, just keep him out there and let him figure it out or get someone who is, I don't know, actually better than he is vs. lefties (like Bryce Harper, maybe?).

 

#FREESCHWARBER

#ORATLEASATPLATOONHIMWITHSOMEONEWHOISNTIANHAPP

 

Rizzo had about 500 PA in his first couple of seasons and only just turned 23 after that second season; Schwarber already has over 1200 under his belt and is going to be 26 before next season. That .250 OPS chasm between facing lefties and righties likely ain't getting much better at this point.

Edited October 8, 2018 by Sammy Sofa

[Sammy Sofa]

I'd look to add 3-4 legit pen arms

 

Oh, that's all?

Jorge De La Rosa was our closer at the end of the year. We're starting from scratch.

 

They can't afford to add 3-4 go-to bullpen guys. And they're not starting from scratch since some of those guys are coming back.

[Clem Fandango]

He's a "brainy" enough hitter that he should be able to make adjust and commit to being better vs. LHP. Hell, RIzzo sucked his first two years and then he excelled at hitting lefties because he made adjustments to do so. Schwarber spent a lot of time trying to fix that this past offseason but wasn't given the opportunity to prove himself. If you're going to platoon him with someone who is worse than he is, just keep him out there and let him figure it out or get someone who is, I don't know, actually better than he is vs. lefties (like Bryce Harper, maybe?).

 

#FREESCHWARBER

#ORATLEASATPLATOONHIMWITHSOMEONEWHOISNTIANHAPP

 

Rizzo had about 500 PA in his first couple of seasons and only just turned 23 after that second season; Schwarber already has over 1200 under his belt and is going to be 26 before next season. That .250 OPS chasm between facing lefties and righties likely ain't getting much better at this point.

 

You're mixing his SD season in there, I was using strictly his first two Cubs season. You are also using total PA's as an excuse to say he can't hit LHP when he's only had 250 total PA's, which is less than half a year's worth, vs. LHP over the course of 337 games. Rizzo had 323 PA's vs. LHP in his first two Cubs seasons, over a total of 247 games.

 

I'm not necessarily advocating for him to be the full-time starter, and to be honest I don't personally believe he can do what Rizzo did and flip a switch and hit better vs. lefties than righties like Rizzo did in 2014, I just think the "Kyle can't hit LHP" statement is not completely true. He sucked the worst during his first taste of MLB pitching in 2015 over the course of 50 whopping PA's, and as a result, he's been doomed to be a career platoon guy in the Cubs eyes. That's silly. Especially when you consider he obliterated LHP in the minors (.976 OPS in 2014 and 1.008 in 2015). I understand the Cubs were committed to Rizzo and let him adjust because it was during a rebuild and they could afford to play him, and Schwarber is on a team that is a perennial contender and they can't afford to hurt themselves because they need to win... but if they're playing someone worse than him, and don't have the option to play someone better, why sit him in the first horsefeathering place? And if the Cubs FO is going to give all this lip service about how much they love him, then they need to let him right the ship vs. lefties if the alternative is Ian Happ.

 

All that said, I don't mind trading him at all, but when the return is a bullpen arm or something less than what we expect no one reserves the right to complain since the FO killed his potential value by making him a platoon player. A Harper acquisition will either a) make him expendable or b) make platooning him logical... but even then Harper doesn't exactly obliterate lefties either. A .796 OPS vs lefties is good, but not the world-beating performance we'd expect from someone like him... but he's a far greater option to platoon Schwarber with than what we have now, especially when you consider his recent performance vs. lefties (.830 OPS last two seasons).

 

Still... #FREESCHWARBERASLONGASIANHAPPISTHEALTERNATIVE

[Sammy Sofa]

I seriously doubt the Cubs' FO deemed Schwarber a platoon player over only 50 in-game PA's. It's almost certainly based on how he's been evaluated as a hitter outside of games as well; yeah, he only has 250 PA against lefties, yet the guy is rocking a remarkably consistent .275-ish BAbip against both righties and lefites, indicating this is likely just who he is. Combine that with his value arguably inflated by unsustainable defensive value and it doesn't really make, "start him just because Ian Happ is on the team," a terribly convincing argument. They don't have to start Happ instead of him.

[Clem Fandango]

They don't have to, but they do, and that's the problem. You have the option to play two people against lefties. One of them can't hit or get on base vs. lefties. The other one can't hit but can get on base vs. lefties. Why start the one who can't do either of them well? As you alluded to earlier, this is probably Joe just being stupid about matchups thinking he needs a righty against a lefty, but if they go into next season with the intent to make Happ and Schwarber the LF platoon again it's objectively better to just start Schwarber full time instead.

 

Now if you said they're gonna start Bryant vs. lefties in LF and do an IF of Bote/Baez/Zobrist/Rizzo or whoever then yeah fine, please horsefeathering do that that would be fantastic. But if you're not, leave Happ out of the equation and either let Schwarber play or get a platoon bat that actually fits. Harper solves this problem (among others).

[Cubswin11]

 

Oh, that's all?

Jorge De La Rosa was our closer at the end of the year. We're starting from scratch.

 

They can't afford to add 3-4 go-to bullpen guys. And they're not starting from scratch since some of those guys are coming back.

Yeah they’re not turning over the bullpen like crazy. At most I’d expect 2 additions then the rest are internal options. Morrow/Carl/Strop/Cishek/at least 1 and probably both of Monty and Smyly are all guaranteed spots. Then you have a FA (Chavez?) and potential trade addition then it will be rounded out by a Rule 5 guy, Randy, Norwood, Maples, Webster, Mills, etc.