The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm really not sure how to reply to this hypothetical binary idea that the Cubs are locked into having LF covered by only Schwarber or Happ going forward if both remain on the team. Nobody wants that, AND starting Schwarber full time isn't the answer.

[Clem Fandango]

I'm really not sure how to reply to this hypothetical binary idea that the Cubs are locked into having LF covered by only Schwarber or Happ going forward if both remain on the team. Nobody wants that, AND starting Schwarber full time isn't the answer.

 

I agree, but this year they proved that Schwarber or Happ were the only primary options, and if they don't add someone to fix that this offseason, we're probably getting that again. Which is gross.

[Cubswin11]

I'm really not sure how to reply to this hypothetical binary idea that the Cubs are locked into having LF covered by only Schwarber or Happ going forward if both remain on the team. Nobody wants that, AND starting Schwarber full time isn't the answer.

 

I agree, but this year they proved that Schwarber or Happ were the only primary options, and if they don't add someone to fix that this offseason, we're probably getting that again. Which is gross.

Even in the scenario where we keep the entire offensive roster (which it doesn’t seem likely) and only add Bryce and a backup MIF who can play SS and shift Javy to 2B vs LHP(let’s say Mercer, who’s good against lefties) we have LF covered with 3 non Happ/Schwarber options internally with Bryant/Zobrist/Bote.

 

I would assume a Cameron Maybin, Austin Jackson, etc RHB type will be added once a Schwarber, Happ, etc is traded off.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm really not sure how to reply to this hypothetical binary idea that the Cubs are locked into having LF covered by only Schwarber or Happ going forward if both remain on the team. Nobody wants that, AND starting Schwarber full time isn't the answer.

 

I agree, but this year they proved that Schwarber or Happ were the only primary options, and if they don't add someone to fix that this offseason, we're probably getting that again. Which is gross.

 

Well, sure, if the Cubs inexplicably make no change to the OF besides signing Harper, despite having 3 guys between Happ, Schwarber and Heyward who can't hit lefties, then yes, having only Schwarber or Happ in LF would indeed suck.

[17 Seconds]

i STILL don't want to trade schwarber. i don't care if it makes sense to move him. i will love him until something off the field makes me not.

[Cubswin11]

i STILL don't want to trade schwarber. i don't care if it makes sense to move him. i will love him until something off the field makes me not.

I agree. I really don’t want to move him either and hope we ultimately don’t.

[Cubswin11]

Anybody able to find Happ’s splits vs LHP in the minors? I know we have ~200 PAs in MLB to say he isn’t very good, but did he hit them well down there? If not I’d almost prefer he decides to move to a full time LHB soonish and focus on that.

[Clem Fandango]

Anybody able to find Happ’s splits vs LHP in the minors? I know we have ~200 PAs in MLB to say he isn’t very good, but did he hit them well down there? If not I’d almost prefer he decides to move to a full time LHB soonish and focus on that.

 

Depending on the level he was feast or famine. MiLB profiles have splits for minors if you want to look them up

[Bertz]

MLBTR has their arbitration projections out.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2019.html

 

If they cut Russell and Kintzler exercises his option, I have the Cubs at $205.3m ($0.7m under the cap) for tax purposes right at this moment.

[Sammy Sofa]

God, that Kintzler trade was so horsefeathering terrible.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

boy that'd be a helluva raise for javy

[davell]

MLBTR Arbitration Estimates.....

 

Kris Bryant-12.4

Kyle Hendricks-7.6

Javy Baez- 7.1

Kyle Schwarber-3.1

Mike Montgomery -3.0

Carl Edwards Jr-1.4

Tommy La Stella-1.2

 

If they tender him......

 

Addison Russell-4.3

[Cubswin11]

Non-tendering Tommy and saving $1.2 seems like a no brainer.

[jersey cubs fan]

Non-tendering Tommy and saving $1.2 seems like a no brainer.

 

that was my first thought as well, but then who are you getting to do the same thing for less?

[Brian]

Bote plays more positions and has more power, but probably sucks

[Cubswin11]

Non-tendering Tommy and saving $1.2 seems like a no brainer.

 

that was my first thought as well, but then who are you getting to do the same thing for less?

Zobrist/Bote/Happ/FA guy like Mercer or Galvis. The role is mostly filled internally with whoever is on the bench on a given day and the roster spot is taken from the FA MIF addition that can play SS (Mercer or Galvis for example probably only costs $2-3 million more than the $1.2 and fills an actual need/role).

Edited October 9, 2018 by Cubswin11

[davell]

Both Bote and Seal Boy are likely to be mainstays next year, in my mind. I feel pretty sure at least one of Schwarber or Happ is going to get dealt.

 

If we use MLBTR's arb estimates, we're basically sitting at 232 mill for luxury tax purposes...... With a 246 Top End Hurdle......

 

The 232 includes the following......

 

All players under contract and options getting picked up on Quintana, Strop, Hamels, and Kintzler picking up his.

Also includes minimum salary guys, 3 million cushion for in season callups, 2.25 for the rest of your 40 Man roster, and 15 million for player benefits and insurance......

 

The 232 does not include Addison Russell.

 

We can lower Hamels number. We might not even need to, there's a chance his LT hit is just 14.....

 

I think that we definitely are going to go balls out to get Bryce or Manny. And I suspect we'll add a very solid reliever too. Not a 40-50+ mill guy, but a David Robertson type. And I can see us going after whichever SS falls in the market, in the group of Iglesias, Mercer, Galvis, or Hechevarria.......(Hoping for Marwin Gonzalez personally)

 

At any rate, I feel pretty confident that we'll have the ok to get past the top end. But probably only if we land one of the 2 big guys. Granted, we wouldn't need to go past it, unless it's for them.

 

If the Dodgers or Yankees get one of those 2 and still full their teams out normally, they're going over too. Same with Red Sox, if they went after either.

 

So, I'm pretty confident we're willing to go past it. Likely with the idea of trying to get back under it the following year, with Zobrist, Morrow, Cishek, Smyly, maybe Hamels coming off the books......(More reason to.just pickup Hamels option actually)

[Clem Fandango]

Non-tendering Tommy and saving $1.2 seems like a no brainer.

 

that was my first thought as well, but then who are you getting to do the same thing for less?

 

My dead grandfather could replace Tommy. We wouldn't even know he was gone.

[17 Seconds]

Non-tendering Tommy and saving $1.2 seems like a no brainer.

 

https://twitter.com/zieg/status/1047927699589799940

[Regular Show]

I've been thinking about ways to get rid of Heyward for a long time. I just don't believe in his bat (even when he's playing well) and think his defense is starting to slip and go backwards. His contract will not age well.

 

We could just straight up dump him on some team and pay like 90-95% of what's left. I'd only do this if we signed Harper and had a good option for CF. Not sure if playing Happ full-time in CF is ideal. His defense and route running is not great there.

 

I know engineering 3-team trades is foolish and hard to pull off, but I just don't see a way Stl will make a straight up trade with us. The Redbirds are going to try to move Fowler this offseason. Heyward has a limited NTC and I doubt he wants to go back to Stl.

 

I imagine Colorado wants to get rid of Ian Desmond so I thought about this:

 

Cubs get Dexter Fowler + Wade Davis + cash

 

Rockies get Heyward (+ cash?)

 

Cardinals get Ian Desmond (+ maybe a prospect?)

 

Obviously, all these players have warts and bad contracts. Just the degrees and making the money/contracts work out. Do you guys want to trade for Dexter if possible? What about Wade Davis? Not sure if this framework would ever work out, but I think Dexter could bounce back and be a positive influence in the clubhouse. You could split CF between Fowler and Happ (not a great defensive platoon I know). What do you guys think?

[shnsajax]

Philly, Seattle, and Atlanta are the teams I have some hopes of moving Heyward to. I like Seattle and Anaheim for Chatwood. These are all based on nonsense

 

Seattle actually makes sense for Chatwood, and we could probably get Dipoto drunk to make the trade.

[Cubswin11]

I don’t know if this is actually legal or how it would be accounted for by MLB (maybe they wouldn’t view it as a new deal but a continuation of his current deal and the current LT hit applies for the next 2 years and only the third year would be accounted as a new deal when that comes?) but if this move is possible it’s a pretty easy way to cut a few million off the LT hit. Guys who know the LT/CBA better chime in.

 

Lester has 2/47.5 guaranteed left ($22.5 in 19, $15 in 20 and a $10 mil buyout/$25 option in 21). His LT hit is $27.5 (6/155 + $10 mil buyout).

 

The idea/proposal is...... What if we signed Lester to new a 3/55-60 deal, this cuts ~$8 mil off the cap hit this year, it gives Lester another year and nets him another ~$10 million. Would this be viewed as a new deal? Or would it be viewed as a continuation of his current one and we don’t get the LT discount????

 

If it’s allowed it’s a win for everyone, imo. We don’t come a ton more out of pocket than we already have to, Lester gets another year and more money guaranteed, we save a pretty significant amount in LT hit this year.

[Bertz]

I don’t know if this is actually legal or how it would be accounted for by MLB (maybe they wouldn’t view it as a new deal but a continuation of his current deal and the current LT hit applies for the next 2 years and only the third year would be accounted as a new deal when that comes?) but if this move is possible it’s a pretty easy way to cut a few million off the LT hit. Guys who know the LT/CBA better chime in.

 

Lester has 2/47.5 guaranteed left ($22.5 in 19, $15 in 20 and a $10 mil buyout/$25 option in 21). His LT hit is $27.5 (6/155 + $10 mil buyout).

 

The idea/proposal is...... What if we signed Lester to new a 3/55-60 deal, this cuts ~$8 mil off the cap hit this year, it gives Lester another year and nets him another ~$10 million. Would this be viewed as a new deal? Or would it be viewed as a continuation of his current one and we don’t get the LT discount????

 

Pretty sure that's a new deal, or at least his new AAV would be based on the three remaining years as opposed to his full 7 year deal, which is what we care about.

[Tryptamine]

Assuming starting point after arbitration is 206M and 246M is the point at which draft picks start being penalized, I'd do the following.

 

Trade Almora+Chatwood for salary relief (-13M in 2019)

Trade Caratini+Kintzler for salary relief (-5.5M)

Trade Happ+Montomery+Hatch to Colorado for J.Gray (0, 3 years left)

Trade Duensing +1M to ARI for Jarrod Dyson (+1M, one year left on Dyson)

Trade Monasterio+Little to SF for W.Smith(+3.5M, only one year left under contract))

 

Sign Harper for 10/300 (+30M)

Sign R.Rivera for 1/2.5M (+2.5M)

Sign Z.Britton 3/36M (+12M)

Let Rangers buyout Hamels' option (0M)

 

 

C:Contreras

1B:Rizzo

2B:Zobrist

SS:Baez

3B:Bryant

LF:Schwarber

CF:Heyward

RF:Harper

 

Bench:Bote,Lastella,Rivera,Dyson

 

SP:Lester,Hendricks,Darvish,Gray,Quintana

RP:Britton,Morrow,Strop,Edwards,Cishek,Smyly,Smith

 

Gives the Cubs a bullpen of death, another SP with huge upside who's also young, another impact bat, but they certainly do lose depth. This also leaves just under 10M to make any other moves. I don't think Jose Iglesias is the worst option.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Assuming starting point after arbitration is 206M and 246M is the point at which draft picks start being penalized, I'd do the following.

 

Trade Almora+Chatwood for salary relief (-13M in 2019)

Trade Caratini+Kintzler for salary relief (-5.5M)

Trade Happ+Montomery+Hatch to Colorado for J.Gray (0, 3 years left)

Trade Duensing +1M to ARI for Jarrod Dyson (+1M, one year left on Dyson)

Trade Monasterio+Little to SF for W.Smith(+3.5M, only one year left under contract))

 

Sign Harper for 10/300 (+30M)

Sign R.Rivera for 1/2.5M (+2.5M)

Sign Z.Britton 3/36M (+12M)

Let Rangers buyout Hamels' option (0M)

 

 

C:Contreras

1B:Rizzo

2B:Zobrist

SS:Baez

3B:Bryant

LF:Schwarber

CF:Heyward

RF:Harper

 

Bench:Bote,Lastella,Rivera,Dyson

 

SP:Lester,Hendricks,Darvish,Gray,Quintana

RP:Britton,Morrow,Strop,Edwards,Cishek,Smyly,Smith

 

Gives the Cubs a bullpen of death, another SP with huge upside who's also young, another impact bat, but they certainly do lose depth. This also leaves just under 10M to make any other moves. I don't think Jose Iglesias is the worst option.

They already traded Monasterio for Daniel Murphy.