The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

[davell]

We've got a truly interesting off-season ahead of us, under just about any circumstance. Bryce? Manny? No idea, but honestly think we'll get one of them.....

 

That said, our payroll situation is going to be extremely interesting. Are we going to go over the luxury tax? Yeah, we will. Theo has kind of made mention of being strategical with it.

 

That said, here's the thing....... The luxury tax will be set at 206 mill next year.

 

Here are the penalties...... Go over and it's a 20, 30, and 50% taxes on the overages, IF you stay under the MAX penalty range, for the first 3 years of going over...... The max penalties are 42.5%, 45, and 45 for those 3 years. Plus a 10 spot draft pick penalty.

 

It's just money. Could we go over that if we wanted to? Most definitely. But, no team has and I don't think a single team ever will. Not with the dogfight of the next CBA on the horizon and the players union looking at numbers that CURRENTLY show where the luxury tax SHOULD be set at 275 mill RIGHT NOW, based on revenues. Owners aren't going to give them that ammo heading into negotiations, everyone's staying under that top number.........

 

If we sign a qualified FA, thinking of Bryce here obviously...... It costs is our 2nd and 5th round picks and pool money, plus 1 mill in IFA money too. Obviously, that stuff doesn't keep you from signing a guy.

 

But, if you sign a guy, then also go over the top end of the tax? That's a hell of a draft hit to take, when your system is as shitty as ours is and we need to have ammo to trade from......Not a MAJOR thing here, but a minor reason we won't head past the top end...... Again, main reason being that no team is going to do it........

 

Still, where do we stand, heading into the offseason?

 

Under Contract Luxury Tax Numbers

 

Lester-25.833

Heyward-23

Darvish-21

Zobrist-14

Chatwood-12.667

Morrow-10.5

Rizzo-5.857

Cishek-6.5

Duensing-3.5

Smyly-5

 

Total-127.857

 

Options that will get picked up.....

Quintana-10.5

Strop-6.25

 

Total-16.75 (144.627 Total)

 

Arbitration Estimates.....

Bryant-14.5, raise from 10.850 MLBTR-12.4

Hendricks-7.750, raise from 4.175 MLBTR-7.8

Russell-5, raise from 3.2. MLBTR-4.3

Seal Boy-1.2, raise from .950k MLBTR-1.2

 

Total-28.450 (173.077 Total) MLBTR-25.7

 

1st Year Arbitration Eligibles......

 

Javy- 4 MLBTR-7.1

Schwarber-3 MLBTR-3.1

Montgomery-2.3 MLBTR-3.0

Edwards-2.3 MLBTR-1.4 (Super Two)

 

Total-11.6(184.677 Overall) MLBTR-14.6

 

The arb numbers are obviously guesses, but I doubt I'm off more than 2-3 mill in either direction.

 

Other Options......

 

Hamels-20

Kintzler-5

 

Seriously, if one year of Hamels pitching anything NEAR this is available, then we pick up his option, no questions asked. Obviously we've got time to decide on him and his performance will dictate things......

 

Kintzler? We've got a 10 mill team option we'll decline. But, he's got a 5 mill p!ayers option. I'm a reliever heavy FA class, I bet he exercises his option and he's back...... For this purpose, we'll add him......

 

New Overall Total-189.677

 

Now, add in 5 or minimum level contracts to fill out the 25 Man roster. That's 2.750 mill more.....192.427

 

Now, add 2.5 more to fill out the rest of your 40 man. 194.927

 

Then, you are adding 12-15 mill for insurances and we're literally at or slightly above the luxury tax, before the off-season even begins......

 

Add Harper and we push the upper max. But, we've got small moves to relieve some salary too. Add Hamels too and we've got some serious decisions to make elsewhere......

 

My guess right now is we add Bryce at 35 per. Attach a small prospect to move Kintzler and Duensing. Trade 2 of Addy, Almora, and Happ to come up with the best starting pitcher we can get. Probably move Monty for a prospect or in the deal for a starter too. Nontender or deal Seal Boy.

 

Hopefully, these moves give you the ability to sign Bryce, add a controlled starter, and leave us enough money to still pick up a reliever too. Along with money for the deadline......

 

Plenty of options...... Move Zobrist is a possibility. Or attach enough to move Chatwood. If you're not adding Bryce or Manny, you can probably add a Pollock and Andrew Miller combo for the same price as one of those 2. Anyway, lots of options.......

 

But damn, it kind of starts with Hamels..... 20 mill. He continues on like this, I think it's a no brainer.......

 

Thoughts??????

Edited October 9, 2018 by davell

[Bote McBoteface]

I feel like even if Hamels continues like this you can decline the option, which Texas pays the 6mm buyout, and then try to sign him to like a 2/25 deal. I’d be shocked if we pick up that option.

 

Im pretty sure Harper is ours

 

I think Russell + one of Happ/Almora will be traded for a young ace-calibur SP.

 

I think we’ll likely find a taker for one or both of Heyward and Zobrist, eating a bunch of money in the process.

 

Chatwood might be assassinated

 

Schwarber/Almora or Happ/ Harper in the OF

Bryant/Baez/Bote(and-or Zobrist)/Rizzo/Contreras in the IF

 

SP: Darvish/Hamels/Hendricks/Trade/Lester

 

Edit: I forgot Q exists. I doubt Lester is tradeable without eating the whole salary. We might not be interested in Hamels even at a reduced salary.

Edited August 14, 2018 by Bote McBoteface

[Cubswin11]

I’d like to see something like

 

Give Hamels 2/18-25 if this continues

 

Sign Bryce to 30-35 AAV

 

Re-sign Chavez for Duensings deal this year

 

Attach Almora and another nothing prospect with Chatwood and take a minor leaguer or backup catcher back

 

Trade like Caritini with a prospect to move Duensing

 

Non-tender Seal boy

 

Hope Kintzler doesn’t opt in and obviously don’t pick up his option

 

Position players (12)

 

KB

Rizzo

Baez

Zobrist

Russell

Bote

Happ

Schwarber

Heyward

Bryce

Willy

Back up C

 

Pitchers (13) (maybe go 6-man)

 

Lester

Yu

Hendricks

Q

Hamels

Monty

Chavez

Smyly

Strop

Cishek

Carl

Morrow

Maples/Mekkes/Bass/Whatever

 

 

Hopefully that’s enough to keep us under the upper LT tier and also is based on them feeling comfortable Bote can play some OF and CF. But that’s my ideal offseason.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

Is there a way we could pay Bryce like 28 mil in the first year or two of the deal and then 42 in years 3 and 4 as a way to stay below the worst penalty and give us time to unload/let expire other contracts?

[Cubswin11]

Is there a way we could pay Bryce like 28 mil in the first year or two of the deal and then 42 in years 3 and 4 as a way to stay below the worst penalty and give us time to unload/let expire other contracts?

It’s the total guaranteed money divided by the guaranteed years for LT purposes, it doesn’t matter how you actually pay the money

[treebird]

good post............i liked it 8-)

[Cubswin11]

I'm optimistic about them being able to move one or both of Heyward and Chatwood. Seattle?

I mean this entirely seriously, I want to keep Heyward. We can still fit Bryce in with him and I’ll buy in he’s figured it out enough offensively and he’s still good on defense. Plus I think he’s an awesome teammate and clubhouse guy.

[davell]

To move guys like that, the first question is how much do you think they'd get on the open market?

 

My honest guess is you could get Chatwood on a 1/4 type of deal, with incentives. Heyward? He's obviously had a better season. But, those 2 years damaged the value a bunch, he's 29, and he's still primarily a defense-first guy and it's hard to see teams paying up for that, especially as he ages. My honest guess is Heyward would get 1/15 or maybe 2/25 on the open market, at this point.

 

So, I seriously doubt we'd put enough with Heyward, to move him. Chatwood? Maybe, I guess? I think it's be to a rebuilding team, looking to rehab his value, to put with a decent prospect or 2, in taking on the contract.

[17 Seconds]

i want harper and everything, but i think the rotation has to be the priority. i'm not cool with starting 2019 with the current rotation at all.

[Backtobanks]

I'm optimistic about them being able to move one or both of Heyward and Chatwood. Seattle?

 

 

Nobody is going to take Heyward's contract and if we have to throw in a ton of cash, then what's the point?

[Backtobanks]

i want harper and everything, but i think the rotation has to be the priority. i'm not cool with starting 2019 with the current rotation at all.

 

I totally agree with you. Let's see what happens with the rest of this year, but pitching certainly needs to be addressed in the off season.

[weis21]

i want harper and everything, but i think the rotation has to be the priority. i'm not cool with starting 2019 with the current rotation at all.

 

I totally agree with you. Let's see what happens with the rest of this year, but pitching certainly needs to be addressed in the off season.

Nah. That's what the trades are for.

[SouthSideRyan]

My honest guess is you could get Chatwood on a 1/4 type of deal, with incentives.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if Chatwood would have to settle for a minor league deal.

[Backtobanks]

i want harper and everything, but i think the rotation has to be the priority. i'm not cool with starting 2019 with the current rotation at all.

 

I totally agree with you. Let's see what happens with the rest of this year, but pitching certainly needs to be addressed in the off season.

Nah. That's what the trades are for.

 

 

That's what I meant since trades happen during the off season. Myy point was to see which of our players would have the most trade value by seeing what happens the rest of the way and seeing what happens to other teams to affect their thought process on trades.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

I just really don't see us trading Heyward, and I also don't see us going with a Schwarber-Heyward-Harper outfield, as much fun as the lineups would be. I think if we sign Harper then we will trade Schwarber, which meas we should be able to get a good SP back.

[davell]

If we get Bryce, I think an Almora/Heyward CF platoon would be nice. Happ seems like the guy to me that's probably got the most value, between him, Almora, and Russell, plus the most team control. So, he seems the easiest to move.

 

The more I think about Russell, I think we're probably stuck with him. He's coming off a down year, he only has 3 years left...... Who's trading for him? I can't find a contender or even a team that wants/thinks they're competing next year, that he represents a true upgrade over. And with just 3 years left, it's not enough control for the tanking teams.......

[JennieGarthAlgar]

If we get Bryce, I think an Almora/Heyward CF platoon would be nice.

 

I hope you are right, because I agree. Id like to keep Schwarber, its just he has so much more value than any of the other guys we'd be willing to trade and could actually get us something exciting back.

[Cubswin11]

If we get Bryce, I think an Almora/Heyward CF platoon would be nice.

 

I hope you are right, because I agree. Id like to keep Schwarber, its just he has so much more value than any of the other guys we'd be willing to trade and could actually get us something exciting back.

I really don't know if Schwarber would have more value than Happ. Considering control, positional versatility, etc. There's almost certainly teams that would value them differently and prefer one over the other, but I don't think it's a crazy idea to think Happ is the better/more valuable trade piece.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

i want harper and everything, but i think the rotation has to be the priority. i'm not cool with starting 2019 with the current rotation at all.

 

If you sign Harper (or Machado), you can trade some combination of cost controlled cheaper position players (Almora, Bote, Happ, Russell, etc.) for pitching. The pitching free agency market is both expensive and injury prone so I think you're better off spending your funds on the more safe position players and trying to acquire cheaper pitching.

[17 Seconds]

i want harper and everything, but i think the rotation has to be the priority. i'm not cool with starting 2019 with the current rotation at all.

 

If you sign Harper (or Machado), you can trade some combination of cost controlled cheaper position players (Almora, Bote, Happ, Russell, etc.) for pitching. The pitching free agency market is both expensive and injury prone so I think you're better off spending your funds on the more safe position players and trying to acquire cheaper pitching.

 

yeah, i didn't mean free agency pitching. the optimal plan would be sign harper/machado and then use some of almora/scwharber/happ/russell for a good starter. i just don't like the plan mentioned above of keeping the current rotation (with hamels). hendricks/darvish/lester/q are pretty much locked in. getting a starter shouldn't conflict with getting harper, i just think it's the #1 priority, even if it means eating money on heyward/chatwood or taking on another bad contract.

[Old Style]

i want harper and everything, but i think the rotation has to be the priority. i'm not cool with starting 2019 with the current rotation at all.

 

If you sign Harper (or Machado), you can trade some combination of cost controlled cheaper position players (Almora, Bote, Happ, Russell, etc.) for pitching. The pitching free agency market is both expensive and injury prone so I think you're better off spending your funds on the more safe position players and trying to acquire cheaper pitching.

Ban this guy for daring to suggest we trade Bote.

[Old Style]

Supposedly Machado wants to sign with the Yankees in the off-season.

 

[Cubswin11]

Supposedly Machado wants to sign with the Yankees in the off-season.

 

Good

[Sammy Sofa]

I thought that had been the assumed end result for a long, long time.

[Backtobanks]

Daniel Norris came back really strong opening with 4 perfect with 7 Ks against the Yankees. Then he left with a lower body injury. If he can get that gd groin figured out I really like him as an Arrieta candidate alot still.

 

I wonder who’d say no first to a Norris/Almora offseason swap...Maybe start Norris out in the pen

 

Note: If trading to a SP at all this offseason Stroman is still #1 on the wish list

 

Enough with the lefties in the rotation, let's find a righty.