The way too early, but I'm bored, Off-season Options Thread

[Sammy Sofa]

There is no Darvish...only Zuul.

[davell]

We've got this next year for the rotation.....

 

Lester(L), Quintana(L), Hendricks, Darvish, Chatwood, Smyly(L), Montgomery(L), Hamels(L)

 

With these guys in AAA, to provide more depth.....

 

Alzolay,Mills, Clifton, Robinson, Rucker

 

Honestly, that's the best DEPTH in AAA, that we'll have had in this regime's tenure. With AA being filled with more guy who have a legit shot at eventually providing innings in the majors at some point as well. Not elite arms, but lots and lots of fringe starter types, that a strength in numbers approach, will wind up having one of two of these guys eventually turning into Jason Hammel or something of that sort. Which, in all honesty, would be HUGE, for this organization. Just finding even backend cheap options......

 

On top of this depth, we've got a decision to make on Hamels. Who I suspect will be back. Whether it's picking up his 20 mill option of giving him a 2/32 Lackey type deal, I think he's back. So, let's add him to the top part now......

 

Personally, I don't give a horsefeathers about what hand a guy pitches with. However, we've got 5 lefties and 3 righties to start things off with...... And for that matter, Darvish and Chatwood are the 2 biggest questions of the 8.

 

So, even if/when Montgomery gets dealt, it'll still most likely be a righty we go after. And considering our monetary situation, where we've got a surplus of position players and also very likely to go hard after Bryce, I'd suspect 2 of Almora, Happ, or Addy, plus Monty, is likely to be what we're trading to acquire us a controllable arm......

 

With our depth, I guess it's at least POSSIBLE, even if I don't particularly see it happening..... We could move one of those position players for a minor league arm, and use the other, plus Monty for a very nice pen piece. Or reverse that scenario.......

 

Either way, we're heading into 2019 with at least Lester, Quintana, Hamels, Smyly, Hendricks, Darvish, and Chatwood. Plus our depth and likely one more addition via trade. Which makes this a very solid group.

 

Chatswood is the easiest to hide in the pen. Which is what I'm guessing we do with him. Or even keeping him in EXST, to work on things, if his yips aren't gone.

 

That still leaves us with 6, plus a trade addition.....

 

The pen is full too, in all honesty.

 

You've got the following......

 

Morrow, Strop, Edwards, Cishek, Duensing(L), Kintzler, Maples, Norwood, Rosario(L)

 

Plus you've got Kyle Ryan(L), Danny Hultzen(L) and especially Allen Webster, that any to all of the 3 could conceivably get added to the 40 Man, prior to next year. Personally, I think Webster absolutely will. The other 2 being long shots.

 

You also have Dakota Mekkes to factor in next year. Plus, a few guys who may survive the offseason, like Underwood or Hancock.

 

On top of this, you've got Justin Wilson and Jesse Chavez. Who I think we'll be interested in bringing back. Chavez even provides more rotational depth.....

 

Wilson likely becomes a bargain with so many relievers in the market too. My guess is 1/8 with an option probably keeps him...... Chavez comes in at 1/5 or something like that, maybe an option as well......

 

We'll fire Duensing and Kintzler into the sun and eat their money or attach something to move them.

 

Anyway, if you're keeping 13 pitchers TOTAL, even accounting for an injury or 2..... We don't have many spots to play with. Let's say we keep ALL of Hamels, Wilson, and Chavez. Fire Duensing and Kintzler away and trade Montgomery.......

 

You've got this.....

 

Lester(L), Quintana(L), Hamels(L), Smyly(L), Chatwood, Hendricks, Darvish

 

Morrow, Strop, Edwards, Cishek, Wilson(L), Chavez, Rosario(L), Maples, Norwood

 

That's 16. And I honestly believe that at least one of the other guys I've mentioned, like Webster, Mills, or even Alzolay, make the roster next year......

 

And I suspect an additional starting pitcher AND an additional late innings pen arm is added too.

 

Both thru trade, if we get Bryce. Thru FA for the pen arm, if we miss out on him.

 

At any rate, I think Hamels, Wilson, and Chavez are all back. Monty, Duensing, and Kintzler are gone.....

 

And we'll only have room for one addition each, for the rotation and the pen. Most likely done thru trade, in both cases. With 2 of Almora, Happ, and Addy, plus Monty, as the main bait.

 

Fun off-season ahead.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

and Quintana?

[Tim]

...

 

Trade Contreras for Stroman, maybe add Giles and get some cash

 

...

You continue to be obsessed with Stroman. It's possible that he's not as good as he was projected to be.

[davell]

Almora+ better be one hell of a lot of +, to get Realmuto, since they wanted Robles+, this past deadline.

 

We're not trading Contreras. His pre-arb years and even early arb years are one of the reasons we may be able to fit Bryce into our payroll.

[Cubswin11]

We're not trading Contreras. His pre-arb years and even early arb years are one of the reasons we may be able to fit Bryce into our payroll.

 

That roster isn't blowing up the LT* as Realmuto only has one less year pre-FA year*

 

*Not sure if true

Adding Stroman and Realmuto at the cost of Contreras and Almora adds quite a bit of payroll. Stroman will make $8-10 mil next year and Realmuto around $5 probably.

 

I just have no interest in Stroman.

[Cubswin11]

 

That roster isn't blowing up the LT* as Realmuto only has one less year pre-FA year*

 

*Not sure if true

Adding Stroman and Realmuto at the cost of Contreras and Almora adds quite a bit of payroll. Stroman will make $8-10 mil next year and Realmuto around $5 probably.

 

I just have no interest in Stroman.

 

What effect does dumping Chatwood, Kintzler, and Duensing have?

It’s going to cost something(s) real to move Chatwood. Hopefully Kintzler doesn’t pick up his option, Duensing should be too hard to move but still will cost something. I just think all these moves don’t make sense to marginally upgrade at best with Realmuto over Contreras and Stroman in the rotation over Hamels/Monty for the LT hit they’ll cost.

[davell]

We're not trading Contreras. His pre-arb years and even early arb years are one of the reasons we may be able to fit Bryce into our payroll.

 

That roster isn't blowing up the LT* as Realmuto only has one less year pre-FA year*

 

*Not sure if true

 

Before editing, you asked where your roster would be payroll-wise. Arb figures are what I used in my original post for our guys, although I could see Javy and Schwarber both being a mill higher.

 

I've got your roster at 188. That's with Hamels on a 2/32 deal, not just picking up his option. That's with Realmuto at 8, Stroman at 9, Giles at 5. This is not including the rest of the 40 Man salary, which is around 3 mill. This figure does not include 12-14 mill for insurances. And while I think we WILL attach something to move Duensing and Kintzler deals, we're not attaching what it's going to take to move Chatwood. But, let's say we do.....

 

You're basically at the LT, after making those moves, AND getting rid of all of Chatwood's deal......

 

Then, you've still got to sign Bryce. And Diekman and Kelly. I will guess Diekman gets 1/4.5 and Kelly gets 1/7. Bryce gets 12/432, or 36 per......

 

All in all, you're around 5-8 mill over the top end of the LT. But again, this is with us trading off Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler, without taking on ANY salary at all.

[davell]

Giles peripherals are solid. Hes not a bad contract. And if he WAS, they'd non tender him anyway. Now Chatwood, on the other hand, has 2/25.5 left on his deal. In all honesty, if he's a FA, what's he getting from a team? 1/4 was my honest guess. But, an incentive laden minor league deal is a legit possibility. Plenty of low end options out there, that are cheap. No reason why anyone needs to pay up for him. Don't see us trading him at the absolute lowest his value could get.

[Regular Show]

Giles peripherals are solid. Hes not a bad contract. And if he WAS, they'd non tender him anyway. Now Chatwood, on the other hand, has 2/25.5 left on his deal. In all honesty, if he's a FA, what's he getting from a team? 1/4 was my honest guess. But, an incentive laden minor league deal is a legit possibility. Plenty of low end options out there, that are cheap. No reason why anyone needs to pay up for him. Don't see us trading him at the absolute lowest his value could get.

 

Are you guys talking about Ken Giles? The idiot with seriously bad makeup concerns? horsefeathers no, we're not trading for that loser...

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Just move on guys. Theo and Jed aren't making a trade for him lol.

[davell]

 

That roster isn't blowing up the LT* as Realmuto only has one less year pre-FA year*

 

*Not sure if true

 

Before editing, you asked where your roster would be payroll-wise. Arb figures are what I used in my original post for our guys, although I could see Javy and Schwarber both being a mill higher.

 

I've got your roster at 188. That's with Hamels on a 2/32 deal, not just picking up his option. That's with Realmuto at 8, Stroman at 9, Giles at 5. This is not including the rest of the 40 Man salary, which is around 3 mill. This figure does not include 12-14 mill for insurances. And while I think we WILL attach something to move Duensing and Kintzler deals, we're not attaching what it's going to take to move Chatwood. But, let's say we do.....

 

You're basically at the LT, after making those moves, AND getting rid of all of Chatwood's deal......

 

Then, you've still got to sign Bryce. And Diekman and Kelly. I will guess Diekman gets 1/4.5 and Kelly gets 1/7. Bryce gets 12/432, or 36 per......

 

All in all, you're around 5-8 mill over the top end of the LT. But again, this is with us trading off Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler, without taking on ANY salary at all.

 

Probably shooting high on Realmuto (5-6), Stroman(7-8), Diekman (4), and Kelly's (5) salary by about $5.5 million so there's some room there...Overall that seems like something that can be worked with? Until the next imagined offseason!

 

Agree to disagree on the numbers there. Especially Realmuto, who's having a hell of a year. Think he gets a huge raise. And I feel Kelly gets paid well just for his velo, if nothing else. It's possible I'm overshooting on Diekman or Stroman, but not all 4.

 

I'm the end, you're basically making all these extra moves, to wind up with Realmuto and Stroman, which raises payroll and isn't guaranteed to be better than Willy and Quintana.

 

I'm not opposed to adding Stroman. Realmuto seems definite overkill. Like I said originally, we've got 2 of 3 of Addy, Happ, and Almora, plus Monty to move for pitching...... If Stroman is part of that equation, I'm fine with it. But, im.not advocating giving them 2 of those 3 and Monty for him. That's too much, in my eyes.

[davell]

Giles peripherals are solid. Hes not a bad contract. And if he WAS, they'd non tender him anyway. Now Chatwood, on the other hand, has 2/25.5 left on his deal. In all honesty, if he's a FA, what's he getting from a team? 1/4 was my honest guess. But, an incentive laden minor league deal is a legit possibility. Plenty of low end options out there, that are cheap. No reason why anyone needs to pay up for him. Don't see us trading him at the absolute lowest his value could get.

 

Are you guys talking about Ken Giles? The idiot with seriously bad makeup concerns? horsefeathers no, we're not trading for that loser...

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Just move on guys. Theo and Jed aren't making a trade for him lol.

 

I'm not suggesting adding him. I'm just saying that he's not going to be used as bad salary. They can non tender him, if they think he's not worth his arb number.

[Cubswin11]

Also Joe Kelly kinda sucks other than it’s cool he throws hard. He’s kinda like right handed Wilson. I’d rather have Chavez back for cheaper than him, honestly.

[Cubswin11]

Also Joe Kelly kinda sucks other than it’s cool he throws hard. He’s kinda like right handed Wilson. I’d rather have Chavez back for cheaper than him, honestly.

 

But Jesse Chavez has mostly sucked in the MLs too? Seems like tomato/tomahto to me, Kelly being cheaper and younger. With the offense I don’t want to pay nearly $10 million for some certainty in a middle/long relief role

 

Also think the gap between Realmuto and Contreras is getting downplayed. Realmuto’s a more much complete catcher who does his hitting in a much tougher ballpark.

Kelly won’t be cheaper in FA. I like what Chavez can bring to the team if he can be had on a cheap 1 year deal (multiple innings, throws strikes, different mix of stuff than Carl/Strop/Morrow from the righty options). I’m not going crazy to sign him back but I’d rather have Chavez than Kelly. Underlying point is, is if we’re spending real money of RPs this offseason (which I assume Kelly will cost and Chavez won’t) I’d aim higher than Kelly and get Ottavino.

 

 

I don’t think the gap between Contreras and Realmuto is all that much unless you think Willy is this permanent GB/weak contact guy offensively. As recently as last year Contreras was only .4 fWAR worse than Realmuto in ~30 less games. Factor in acquisition cost and salary of Realmuto (which means we likely don’t add or improve at another position) I think it’s largely just a marginal move of little consequence in making us better.

Edited September 2, 2018 by Cubswin11

[davell]

Sell off Duensing and Kintzler, save 8.5 mill. Give Hamels 2/32. With the rest of the roster, this likely has you 7 or so OVER the LT.....

 

Trade Russell and Montgomery for best pre arb reliever you can get. Saves the 7 mill you're over.

 

Trade Happ and Amaya for best cost controlled starter that it gets you. Price no more than 4-5 mill.

 

Give Bryce 36 per, for 12 years of whatever.

 

C Contreras, Caratini

1B Rizzo

2B Zobrist, Seal Boy

SS Baez

3B Bryant, Bote

LF Schwarber

CF Heyward, Almora

RF Bryce

 

Rotation- Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Darvish, Hamels, Chatwood, Smyly, cost controlled guy

Pen- Morrow, Edwards, Strop, Cishek, Rosario, cost controlled pen guy from trade, Norwood, Maples, Mills, Alzolay, Webster

 

That team puts you at the top end of the LT, with damn near no flexibility for in season moves.....

 

And there's still a need for at least one established pen guy. Plus, it'd be nice to get Rivera or some other defensive minded backup C.

 

So, let's say we put 10 mill into the pen guy or the pen guy, plus backup C..... You also know they'll want 5-10 mill for in season moves......

 

So, we'd need to cut 15-20 mill off this roster, to stay under the LT.....

 

Options.....

1) No Hamels. I want him back, but he IS older.....

2) pay big to unload Chatwood.

3) Trade off Zobrist

 

Alternative.....

 

Don't sign Bryce. Still get rid of Duensing and Kintzler. Sign Hamels for 2/32.

 

Still have 30 mill to play with..... And Russell, Almora, Happ, and Monty are still at your disposal.

 

Tons of options..... Pay up for a pen arm or two? With a FA starter?(unlikely) Still trade for your cost controlled starter? Likely. Go after Pollock? No idea.

[Cubswin11]

I’d really like to keep Russell for the defense and depth. I’d try and use Almora to attach to Chatwood to move his salary (throw in Maples or something if you must), Duensing should be easyish to move (maybe a Rollie Lacy type gets it done or even Maples as mentioned above), pray that Kintzler thinks he can get a multi year deal and opts out, Tommy also probably shouldn’t be tendered a contract. Those are all the things I’d like to see. In terms of cost savings moves.

[davell]

Unfortunately, Chavez has likely raised his profile some. I figure he's getting between 3-5 mill next year from someone. Will it be us? I hope so. But, I'd understand if they're gunshy on relievers that are coming off great seasons. Like their horsefeathers up on Duensing.

[Cubswin11]

Kelly won’t be cheaper in FA. I like what Chavez can bring to the team if he can be had on a cheap 1 year deal (multiple innings, throws strikes, different mix of stuff than Carl/Strop/Morrow from the righty options). I’m not going crazy to sign him back but I’d rather have Chavez than Kelly.

 

I don’t think the gap between Contreras and Realmuto is all that much unless you think Willy is this permanent GB/weak contact guy offensively. As recently as last year Contreras was only .4 fWAR worse than Realmuto in ~30 less games. Factor in acquisition cost and salary of Realmuto (which means we likely don’t add or improve at another position) I think it’s largely just a marginal move of little consequence in making us better.

 

Oh wow, I didn’t realize Chavez only made $1.5 this year. Tomato/Tomahto go ahead with him over Kelly pretty easily

 

Realmuto’s been worth 11.5 fWAR over the past three years to Contreras’ 7.3. That’s not really accounting for better framing, plus he makes more contact and has an IsoSLG somewhere in the high .180s btwn ‘17-‘18 in a tougher park

Realmuto has had ~400 more PAs to put up that WAR. ~1,500 vs ~1,100 that doesn’t account for all of the margin but adjust 400 up or down to even it out and it’s closer. He might make more contact but Willy also walks a lot more, Willy also has a higher OPS, wOBA and wRC+ for his career. I just don’t see this being a clear upgrade, especially like I’ve said when you factor in the salary bump. Unless you really think Willson is the hitter he’s shown in the second half moving forward and this isn’t just a blip.

[davell]

It's not a true question on who's even better between Realmuto and Willy. I'm sure Willy's D frustrates everyone here. Meaning his framing, he's obviously got a cannon. Offensively, I am much less certain of which of those two are better next year...... Still, none of this is the point......

 

The point is that Willy is still pre-arb next year, has 4 years of control left. JT has 2 years left and will be getting expensive this offseason. Excellent year, coming off 2.9 in 1st Year arb..... We disagree on the amount, but it's not even the most important thing...... That extra money goes towards Bryce most likely. May cost you a player or two, to get Bryce, that you wouldn't have had to move, if you had just kept Willy. Then, if JT has a good 2019, he's likely looking around 12-15 mill his last year and then he's getting paid even more.

 

Willy is just much more sensible.

[Sammy Sofa]

I remember looking up Realmuto's framing grades when he was tossed around as a pickup option, and I'm pretty sure it looked like he was barely an upgrade form Contreras in that regard. I know that's probably a terribly tracked metric, so someone feel free to show me I'm wrong.

[Sammy Sofa]

I don't know how that works. This is what I was looking at before:

 

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

 

There's been a bit more separation between the two, but seemingly not much (if I'm looking at it right).

[Sammy Sofa]

So Contreras would extrapolate out to, what, about 190 at the same point? Do the math for me, because I suck at it.

[Cubswin11]

Realmuto has had ~400 more PAs to put up that WAR. ~1,500 vs ~1,100 that doesn’t account for all of the margin but adjust 400 up or down to even it out and it’s closer. He might make more contact but Willy also walks a lot more, Willy also has a higher OPS, wOBA and wRC+ for his career. I just don’t see this being a clear upgrade, especially like I’ve said when you factor in the salary bump. Unless you really think Willson is the hitter he’s shown in the second half moving forward and this isn’t just a blip.

 

Is this really a knock when Contreras lost those PAs due to injuries and being enough of a liability defensively that the team had to hire a caddy for the aces?

 

Production wise it’s a very clear upgrade - you get more games, more defense, similar offense (but seemingly headed in opposite directions this year in Realmuto’s favor), not a world of difference in price tag once Contreras hits arb after next year....

Well 3 years ago was 2016 when Montero and Ross were catching a lot and he didn't even start the year in the majors, he did get hurt last year but Montero was still around in the first half to soak up games before he was cut. I don't know how it's a clear upgrade production wise moving forward it's probably close with a slight edge to Realmuto.

 

 

And on the last part it is a world of difference in price tag because the next two years are huge years for us payroll wise (with or without Bryce) adding a few million more next year on a move that isn't all that clear of an upgrade isn't a luxury we have right now and over the nexttwo years the margin on their salary difference will be huge Realmuto's is going to make ~$15 million more than Willy the next 2 years.

Edited September 3, 2018 by Cubswin11

[davell]

Realmuto has had ~400 more PAs to put up that WAR. ~1,500 vs ~1,100 that doesn’t account for all of the margin but adjust 400 up or down to even it out and it’s closer. He might make more contact but Willy also walks a lot more, Willy also has a higher OPS, wOBA and wRC+ for his career. I just don’t see this being a clear upgrade, especially like I’ve said when you factor in the salary bump. Unless you really think Willson is the hitter he’s shown in the second half moving forward and this isn’t just a blip.

 

Is this really a knock when Contreras lost those PAs due to injuries and being enough of a liability defensively that the team had to hire a caddy for the aces?

 

Production wise it’s a very clear upgrade - you get more games, more defense, similar offense (but seemingly headed in opposite directions this year in Realmuto’s favor), not a world of difference in price tag once Contreras hits arb after next year....

 

You're literally using 2016 as part of your argument. A season in which Willy was in the minors until June 17th. That's probably 250 or those PA right there. Plus, Joe absolutely would rest Realmuto in the same way he rests Willy.

 

And when Contreras hits arb, it'll be Realmuto's LAST year of arb. Then you're paying him even more, as a FA. The gap is going to widen, not close up.

[Tim]

Framing numbers are a really inexact science and have a huge amount of variance from year to year (are not that predictive). I'm not at all certain they have been able to separate out the catcher impact vs pitcher. For example, when Chatwood is constantly out of the zone, is it harder to get strikes called for any catcher? For example, in 2016, Willson was far better than Realmuto based on BP's data. For me, if this were a true measurement of a real skill, there would be a higher degree of auto-correlation from year to year. Heck, Welington Castillo was top 10 in baseball last year. He was bottom 10 in 2016. He's bottom 15 again this year. Is he a good framer or no? Did he learn the skill last year and then forget it this year?

 

It's an interesting data point, but not consistent enough to be a determining factor for me.