Albert Amora Jr

[tmp2001]

What is up with not playing Amora everyday? He is definitely their best outfielder and if given the opportunity to play everyday I feel he could be an all star. Platooning him with Happ is not a good idea. Happ strikes out too much and is definitely a downgrade defensively. Maddon believes in the platoon but I believe the old saying "If it ain't broke, don't fix it". If Amora was struggling to hit I can see platooning. However, he is batting second in the league, only 2 points behind number 1. He needs to be in the lineup everyday.

 

Thoughts?

[Sammy Sofa]

I believe the old saying "If it ain't broke, don't fix it".

 

So they should keep using Almora as is. Glad that's settled!

[PackLandVA]

Cubs have ten starters for eight positions. Everyone will get their ABs.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

the only cub who has played in more games than him this year is javy. this complaint needs to die in a fire.

[Backtobanks]

the only cub who has played in more games than him this year is javy. this complaint needs to die in a fire.

 

 

But Almora is 8th in PA.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

the only cub who has played in more games than him this year is javy. this complaint needs to die in a fire.

 

 

But Almora is 8th in PA.

 

that feels about right to me.

[Tim]

What is up with not playing Amora everyday? He is definitely their best outfielder and if given the opportunity to play everyday I feel he could be an all star. Platooning him with Happ is not a good idea. Happ strikes out too much and is definitely a downgrade defensively. Maddon believes in the platoon but I believe the old saying "If it ain't broke, don't fix it". If Amora was struggling to hit I can see platooning. However, he is batting second in the league, only 2 points behind number 1. He needs to be in the lineup everyday.

 

Thoughts?

I think he's due for regression and if they can get a top end starter for him while he's overvalued, they should do it.

 

 

 

I'm not sure I really feel that way, but it's my instant reaction every time this argument is brought up.

 

[Sammy Sofa]

8th in PA? Hmmmmm, could be a correlation.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

copy/pasted from a week ago since it's still true

 

Almora is a good player who has gotten better this year. RHP are going to adjust back to his 'slap ground balls through the right side' gambit and his .395 BABIP against them will fall. Again, he's a good player, above average depending on your exact impression of his offense + defense. Average or slightly better puts him in stiff competition with no less than 3 other players for the role of 7th best position player on the team, and since all of those position players are still gonna be around next year barring trade, not giving him a standalone job is the most prudent course of action.

[Rob]

I really want to see them try to trade Almora while his value is over-inflated due to this high BABIP.

 

Don't get me wrong, Almora is an extremely useful piece. But over the long term I don't see him being any better than guys like Happ, Heyward, or Schwarber. So we might as well see if we can use him as the centerpiece for a more useful SP or something.

[Backtobanks]

What is up with not playing Amora everyday? He is definitely their best outfielder and if given the opportunity to play everyday I feel he could be an all star. Platooning him with Happ is not a good idea. Happ strikes out too much and is definitely a downgrade defensively. Maddon believes in the platoon but I believe the old saying "If it ain't broke, don't fix it". If Amora was struggling to hit I can see platooning. However, he is batting second in the league, only 2 points behind number 1. He needs to be in the lineup everyday.

 

Thoughts?

I think he's due for regression and if they can get a top end starter for him while he's overvalued, they should do it.

 

 

 

I'm not sure I really feel that way, but it's my instant reaction every time this argument is brought up.

 

 

The same could be said about Russell. Baez slides over to SS and Happ/Zobrist take over 2B without missing a beat and we could add a TOR starter.

[bauermj]

I liked this tweet:

[Tim]

What is up with not playing Amora everyday? He is definitely their best outfielder and if given the opportunity to play everyday I feel he could be an all star. Platooning him with Happ is not a good idea. Happ strikes out too much and is definitely a downgrade defensively. Maddon believes in the platoon but I believe the old saying "If it ain't broke, don't fix it". If Amora was struggling to hit I can see platooning. However, he is batting second in the league, only 2 points behind number 1. He needs to be in the lineup everyday.

 

Thoughts?

I think he's due for regression and if they can get a top end starter for him while he's overvalued, they should do it.

 

 

 

I'm not sure I really feel that way, but it's my instant reaction every time this argument is brought up.

 

 

The same could be said about Russell. Baez slides over to SS and Happ/Zobrist take over 2B without missing a beat and we could add a TOR starter.

Where to begin...

 

Russell's production is much more sustainable than Albert's.

 

Russell's defensive value is much more certain.

 

That should be enough.

[Backtobanks]

I think he's due for regression and if they can get a top end starter for him while he's overvalued, they should do it.

 

 

 

I'm not sure I really feel that way, but it's my instant reaction every time this argument is brought up.

 

 

The same could be said about Russell. Baez slides over to SS and Happ/Zobrist take over 2B without missing a beat and we could add a TOR starter.

Where to begin...

 

Russell's production is much more sustainable than Albert's.

 

Russell's defensive value is much more certain.

 

That should be enough.

 

 

Which means we could get a better TOR starter for Russell. Obviously, we would all love to get that TOR starter without disrupting the core of the ML roster, but unfortunately we don't have the prospects in the minors to make that kind of deal. I'm sure other teams value Baez, Schwarber, and Russell more than Happ and Almora, even though they look to be solid and productive players.

[Tim]

 

 

The same could be said about Russell. Baez slides over to SS and Happ/Zobrist take over 2B without missing a beat and we could add a TOR starter.

Where to begin...

 

Russell's production is much more sustainable than Albert's.

 

Russell's defensive value is much more certain.

 

That should be enough.

 

 

Which means we could get a better TOR starter for Russell. Obviously, we would all love to get that TOR starter without disrupting the core of the ML roster, but unfortunately we don't have the prospects in the minors to make that kind of deal. I'm sure other teams value Baez, Schwarber, and Russell more than Happ and Almora, even though they look to be solid and productive players.

The key point in my semi-sarcastic post at the start of this is that Almora is likely to be over-valued right now and is due for significant regression. That's not nearly as true of Russell. Are you ignoring that on purpose to make your point or just being obtuse?

[imb]

i know that trading almora makes perfect sense and yet man i really like him. and im even aware that i only like him because of his BABIP luck but still, i like him. So don't trade him, or do. Whatever.

[Backtobanks]

Where to begin...

 

Russell's production is much more sustainable than Albert's.

 

Russell's defensive value is much more certain.

 

That should be enough.

 

 

Which means we could get a better TOR starter for Russell. Obviously, we would all love to get that TOR starter without disrupting the core of the ML roster, but unfortunately we don't have the prospects in the minors to make that kind of deal. I'm sure other teams value Baez, Schwarber, and Russell more than Happ and Almora, even though they look to be solid and productive players.

The key point in my semi-sarcastic post at the start of this is that Almora is likely to be over-valued right now and is due for significant regression. That's not nearly as true of Russell. Are you ignoring that on purpose to make your point or just being obtuse?

 

 

I'm not trying to argue with you, but I don't think Almora has "over-valued" himself enough to get the TOR pitcher that I'm hoping for. As I said above, that kind of deal is going to take one of our young ML core players and most teams will ask for Baez, Schwarber, Russell, or Contreras rather than a deal centered on Almora or Happ. A Happ or Almora deal might get you a good pitcher with another year of control, but not a good pitcher that has 2-3 years (or more) of control.

[imb]

who exactly do you envision is on the market that would cost baez or contreras lol

[Cubswin11]

 

 

Which means we could get a better TOR starter for Russell. Obviously, we would all love to get that TOR starter without disrupting the core of the ML roster, but unfortunately we don't have the prospects in the minors to make that kind of deal. I'm sure other teams value Baez, Schwarber, and Russell more than Happ and Almora, even though they look to be solid and productive players.

The key point in my semi-sarcastic post at the start of this is that Almora is likely to be over-valued right now and is due for significant regression. That's not nearly as true of Russell. Are you ignoring that on purpose to make your point or just being obtuse?

 

 

I'm not trying to argue with you, but I don't think Almora has "over-valued" himself enough to get the TOR pitcher that I'm hoping for. As I said above, that kind of deal is going to take one of our young ML core players and most teams will ask for Baez, Schwarber, Russell, or Contreras rather than a deal centered on Almora or Happ. A Happ or Almora deal might get you a good pitcher with another year of control, but not a good pitcher that has 2-3 years (or more) of control.

Pitchers are dumb, keep all the kick ass position players use prospects and money for the pitching

[Tim]

 

 

Which means we could get a better TOR starter for Russell. Obviously, we would all love to get that TOR starter without disrupting the core of the ML roster, but unfortunately we don't have the prospects in the minors to make that kind of deal. I'm sure other teams value Baez, Schwarber, and Russell more than Happ and Almora, even though they look to be solid and productive players.

The key point in my semi-sarcastic post at the start of this is that Almora is likely to be over-valued right now and is due for significant regression. That's not nearly as true of Russell. Are you ignoring that on purpose to make your point or just being obtuse?

 

 

I'm not trying to argue with you, but I don't think Almora has "over-valued" himself enough to get the TOR pitcher that I'm hoping for. As I said above, that kind of deal is going to take one of our young ML core players and most teams will ask for Baez, Schwarber, Russell, or Contreras rather than a deal centered on Almora or Happ. A Happ or Almora deal might get you a good pitcher with another year of control, but not a good pitcher that has 2-3 years (or more) of control.

The point wasn't that I think the Mets will trade Degrom for Albert straight up. What I'm saying is that his value will likely never be higher and we'd be maximizing that asset by turning him into something else right now.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2018&position=&team=CHC&min=100

 

Check out his performance versus his "expected" performance based on his contact types, velocity, etc. He is due for some massive regression and it won't be pretty watching it happen.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's possible I'm making this up, but I believe xwOBA is at best not predictive and at worst not very useful at all because its inputs are pretty imprecise. I seem to recall some chatter on Effectively Wild about this recently.

[Tim]

It's possible I'm making this up, but I believe xwOBA is at best not predictive and at worst not very useful at all because its inputs are pretty imprecise. I seem to recall some chatter on Effectively Wild about this recently.

I'd be interested to read/listen if you can find a link.

 

However, if it is even somewhat directionally correct, then there is a big regression coming.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

It's possible I'm making this up, but I believe xwOBA is at best not predictive and at worst not very useful at all because its inputs are pretty imprecise. I seem to recall some chatter on Effectively Wild about this recently.

 

There was an article at BP recently that showed xStats are about as predictive as stats like FIP. The article set out to show that the xStats weren't very useful, but it was pretty flawed. For one, they actually were a little more predictive on the whole. Secondly, the whole idea of xStats is to strip away context like defense and park effects. So, basically, Jon Gray's xwOBA isn't going to be good at predicting his ERA next year if he is still pitching in Coors, and the same with Jon Lester pitching in front of the Cubs' defense.

 

Also, xwOBA correlated much better with same-year wOBA than other stats correlate to same-year stats. So, xStats are just as predictive as something like FIP, but also do a better job of explaining things that have already happened. They seem pretty useful to me.

[Backtobanks]

Using that link (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected ... HC&min=100), we should have traded Baez two years ago because he was due for a big regression. Stats are fun and great for argumentative purposes, but there's a reason the game is played on the field.

[javy knows my name]

Using that link (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected ... HC&min=100), we should have traded Baez two years ago because he was due for a big regression. Stats are fun and great for argumentative purposes, but there's a reason the game is played on the field.

 

There was a way to say this without being a [expletive]