2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The 2018 Cubs ZiPS projections are out: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-chicago-cubs/

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Depth chart comparison to the rest of the division:

 

Cubs - 50 WAR

Cardinals: 40 WAR

Brewers: ~35 WAR (theirs came out pre-Yelich and Cain, but that 35 is probably the optimistic number)

Reds: 32 WAR

Pirates: ~30 WAR (theirs came out before the Cole/McCutchen trades, 30 is definitely the optimistic number)

[javy knows my name]

3 for Hendricks and Contreras seems bearish to me. Willy breaks out for 5 this year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 for Hendricks and Contreras seems bearish to me. Willy breaks out for 5 this year.

 

Hendricks is definitely going to be underrated by FIP-based WAR, but that probably balances out that Lester is probably a longer shot for 4 WAR himself.

[UMFan83]

Depth chart comparison to the rest of the division:

 

Cubs - 50 WAR

Cardinals: 40 WAR

Brewers: ~35 WAR (theirs came out pre-Yelich and Cain, but that 35 is probably the optimistic number)

Reds: 32 WAR

Pirates: ~30 WAR (theirs came out before the Cole/McCutchen trades, 30 is definitely the optimistic number)

 

And to compare to 2017, last year their projection was 51 WAR, although that was before the Soler/Davis trade

 

Biggest differences between last year and this year are Bryant, Rizzo and Russell and the catcher position all project to be 1 win less and last year's pen was projected to be worth 2 wins (probably 3, maybe 4 with Davis), this year 5.

 

Sign Darvish and this team is probably right on par with last year's team going into the season.

[imb]

I think they're underselling the MIF and OF a little, as well as Willy who is a healthy season away from a 4.5 WAR year. If we do end up signing Darvish that is a pretty bad ass little roster.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Depth chart comparison to the rest of the division:

 

Cubs - 50 WAR

Cardinals: 40 WAR

Brewers: ~35 WAR (theirs came out pre-Yelich and Cain, but that 35 is probably the optimistic number)

Reds: 32 WAR

Pirates: ~30 WAR (theirs came out before the Cole/McCutchen trades, 30 is definitely the optimistic number)

 

 

Other NL competitors:

 

Dodgers - 49 WAR

Arizona - 34 WAR

Colorado - 32 WAR

 

Nationals are the one team with ZiPS yet to be released.

 

And in the AL (which has an extra spot on the depth chart for DH):

 

Houston - 52 WAR

Cleveland - 48 WAR

Boston - 46 WAR

Yankees - 46 WAR

Angels - 36 WAR

 

In other words, the Cubs are a Darvish away from having the best on-paper team in baseball, maybe even if they *only* added Arrieta too.

[squally1313]

Cobb is projected for 2.5, which probably gives you another 1-1.5 over Montgomery when you move him to the bullpen.

 

Given that most of these projections appear pessimistic, the one that stood out in a good way was Quintana's. 4.9 is better than he's put up in the last three years. I'd love if he took the mostly fictional role of 'staff ace' this year, especially because I just can't see Lester pitching at a high level throughout the year at this point in his career.

[sneakypower]

9 WAR for the OF is honestly shocking

[Bertz]

ZiPS looks to, on a per inning basis, really like Alec Mills and kind of like Rob Zastryzny, which is good news for our rotation depth.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Bryant is going to hit a new level of offense and have his best season yet

[The_Achiever]

Seeing all those crooked numbers is honestly porn to me. With no championship hangover (and hopefully one more starter) this team is gonna be a monster.

[UMFan83]

I just can't see Lester pitching at a high level throughout the year at this point in his career.

 

I don’t get why people keep saying that. 34 for a starting pitcher is not exactly his peak but he seems like he fits the mold of a player who can still pitch very effectively well into his 30s. He is only 1 season removed from arguably the best year in his career. Last year was a down year but he also battled injuries for much of the year and he seemed to be stronger and more effective when he came back from his DL stint in Sept/October. In addition, his xFIP suggests he was better than his mainstream numbers suggest. He’s had seasons worse than last year and bounced back.

 

I get it he’s in his mid-30s, is coming off a down year, and has a lot of miles on his arm. But I wouldn’t quite shut the door on Lester as a TOR pitcher just yet.

[Schwarber Fan]

Pretty funny to see Ron Santo, Geovany Soto, and Chili Davis in the comps.

[squally1313]

I just can't see Lester pitching at a high level throughout the year at this point in his career.

 

I don’t get why people keep saying that. 34 for a starting pitcher is not exactly his peak but he seems like he fits the mold of a player who can still pitch very effectively well into his 30s. He is only 1 season removed from arguably the best year in his career. Last year was a down year but he also battled injuries for much of the year and he seemed to be stronger and more effective when he came back from his DL stint in Sept/October. In addition, his xFIP suggests he was better than his mainstream numbers suggest. He’s had seasons worse than last year and bounced back.

 

I get it he’s in his mid-30s, is coming off a down year, and has a lot of miles on his arm. But I wouldn’t quite shut the door on Lester as a TOR pitcher just yet.

 

His fWAR the last four years are 5.6, 5.0, 4.4, and 2.7. I don't mean to get into that common argument about the definition of a TOR pitcher...3.5 WAR would have been good for 18th in baseball last year, so by definition at least a dozen teams would have considered that performance at an ace level. But obviously the Cubs have their sights set higher than most other teams. Obviously we can't expect anyone to repeat a 2015 Arrieta season, but in 2015 the Cubs got a combined 12.3 from Jake/Lester. In 2016, it was 8.2, with what is likely a career year from Hendricks. 2017 was 5.1. This is a long way of saying that in 2015 and 2016 we had at least one, arguably two pitchers that pitched like top 10 pitchers in baseball. While I expect Lester and Hendricks to remain top 25ish pitchers, I think it'd be overly pessimistic to expect top 10 production from them. Quintana has the talent, track level, and appropriate age to get there, so I'm happy to see Zips expects that level of performance.

[Sammy Sofa]

He is only 1 season removed from arguably the best year in his career.

 

This is some...interesting math.

[David]

He is only 1 season removed from arguably the best year in his career.

 

This is some...interesting math.

 

Just depends how much weight you put into raw ERA...it was his lowest in his career, but there's obv a host of other factors that make a few other of his seasons more impressive.

[Sammy Sofa]

He is only 1 season removed from arguably the best year in his career.

 

This is some...interesting math.

 

Just depends how much weight you put into raw ERA...

 

About as much as raw milk.

[UMFan83]

He is only 1 season removed from arguably the best year in his career.

 

This is some...interesting math.

 

Just depends how much weight you put into raw ERA...it was his lowest in his career, but there's obv a host of other factors that make a few other of his seasons more impressive.

 

I did say arguably mostly because I didn’t feel like looking up his peripherals.

[David]

 

This is some...interesting math.

 

Just depends how much weight you put into raw ERA...it was his lowest in his career, but there's obv a host of other factors that make a few other of his seasons more impressive.

 

I did say arguably mostly because I didn’t feel like looking up his peripherals.

 

what site are you still looking up stats on that doesn't have them and why aren't you using fangraphs for that

[UMFan83]

 

Just depends how much weight you put into raw ERA...it was his lowest in his career, but there's obv a host of other factors that make a few other of his seasons more impressive.

 

I did say arguably mostly because I didn’t feel like looking up his peripherals.

 

what site are you still looking up stats on that doesn't have them and why aren't you using fangraphs for that

 

I didn’t use anything to determine he had a good season in 2016. I always go to fangraphs for stats

[Cubswin11]

He had 19 wins (tied for most in his career) and had the lowest ERA in any season for his career in 2016. Easily the best season of his career, morons!

[squally1313]

He had 19 wins (tied for most in his career) and had the lowest ERA in any season for his career in 2016. Easily the best season of his career, morons!

Plus he won the World Series, so by definition it's at least tied for the best season of his career, along with his other WS wins. Just like it was Heyward's best season.

[squally1313]

 

I did say arguably mostly because I didn’t feel like looking up his peripherals.

 

what site are you still looking up stats on that doesn't have them and why aren't you using fangraphs for that

 

I didn’t use anything to determine he had a good season in 2016. I always go to fangraphs for stats

 

So you brought up 2016 (incorrectly) being the best year of his career, justify it by saying you didn't feel like looking up his peripherals, and then reference his 2017 xFIP being better than his ERA. Got it.

[UMFan83]

 

what site are you still looking up stats on that doesn't have them and why aren't you using fangraphs for that

 

I didn’t use anything to determine he had a good season in 2016. I always go to fangraphs for stats

 

So you brought up 2016 (incorrectly) being the best year of his career, justify it by saying you didn't feel like looking up his peripherals, and then reference his 2017 xFIP being better than his ERA. Got it.

 

 

Yep that’s right.

 

I said arguably and this is missing the point of the post. Your initial response was fine and I agreed with it.