Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

[minnesotacubsfan]

i have a real hard time getting upset in the moment giving up future mid-late round draft picks if they identify someone in the current draft that they really want. in fact, i really like making moves back into the earlier rounds when there's still a ton of talent out there. i love this draft so far.

A 2nd is hardly mid-late

 

no no no. hes talking about THE 4TH RD DRAFT PICK we gave up. no body cares about 2nd rd picks

 

jeesh

[UMFan83]

 

a #2 and a #4 for a #2 Pace is a horsefeathering ametuer

 

Next years #2 obviously has less value than a 2 pick next year. A number 4 this year is tough to give up but the Bears dont even have a 3rd rounder this year so instead of a 1,2 and 4, they have a 1,2 and 2. I don’t know I’m not an expert in these things but it doesn’t seem terrible to me

Your first sentence doesn’t make any sense and the Bears have two 4th round picks this year so after trading one we still have the other.

 

What do you mean? You disagree that a 2nd round pick next year is less valuable right now than a 2nd round pick this year?

[WrigleyField 22]

So without taking into account any "time value" premium on the trade the Bears would have to finish top 6 in the league for this to be an even trade on the traditional trade chart. Fwiw.

[David]

So without taking into account any "time value" premium on the trade the Bears would have to finish top 6 in the league for this to be an even trade on the traditional trade chart. Fwiw.

 

the traditional chart is basically worthless with the rookie scale though

 

but you did say fwiw

[WrigleyField 22]

So without taking into account any "time value" premium on the trade the Bears would have to finish top 6 in the league for this to be an even trade on the traditional trade chart. Fwiw.

 

the traditional chart is basically worthless with the rookie scale though

 

but you did say fwiw

Most the "new" models I've seen would make that 4th more valuable relative to the second...basically making this trade impossible to "win". But I dont also totally agree with some of those new models, either.

[David]

So without taking into account any "time value" premium on the trade the Bears would have to finish top 6 in the league for this to be an even trade on the traditional trade chart. Fwiw.

 

the traditional chart is basically worthless with the rookie scale though

 

but you did say fwiw

Most the "new" models I've seen would make that 4th more valuable relative to the second...basically making this trade impossible to "win". But I dont also totally agree with some of those new models, either.

 

When the wage gap between early and late picks is drastically cut, I don't see how the value would skew toward the later picks.

[Brian]

Seems like a cool guy, his HS team got torched by Mitch in the playoffs and he's got an 815 phone number

 

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[WrigleyField 22]

 

the traditional chart is basically worthless with the rookie scale though

 

but you did say fwiw

Most the "new" models I've seen would make that 4th more valuable relative to the second...basically making this trade impossible to "win". But I dont also totally agree with some of those new models, either.

 

When the wage gap between early and late picks is drastically cut, I don't see how the value would skew toward the later picks.

Most the new charts have looked at historical value, and the drop off between mid 2nd and fourth isn't that great, at least speaking on that macro, historical view.

[UK]

My ideal draft so far....

 

1) M. Fitzpatrick

2) H. Landry

3) DJ Chark

 

With that said, Bears have had an outstanding draft so far.

[raw]

My ideal draft so far....

 

1) M. Fitzpatrick

2) H. Landry

3) DJ Chark

 

With that said, Bears have had an outstanding draft so far.

 

Edmunds/Smith was a toss up to me. As was Daniels/Landry.

 

But I'll say my picks if I was GM probably would have been:

 

1. Edmunds

2. Daniels

3. Lorenzo Carter

[raw]

My Day 3 board:

 

Maurice Hurst, DL, Michigan (heart issue, said to not be threatening, obviously scaring teams)

Josh Sweat, OLB, Florida St (knees scare me, especially since he's been passed on so far and showed elite athleticism at combine)

Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon

Anthony Averett, CB, Alabama

Andrew Brown, DL, Virginia

Duke Ejiofor, OLB, Wake Forest

Ogbonnia Okowronku, OLB, Oklahoma

Ade Aruna, OLB, Tulane

Dane Cruikshank, CB/S, Arizona

Bilal Nichols, DL, Delaware

[davell]

My Day 3 board:

 

Maurice Hurst, DL, Michigan (heart issue, said to not be threatening, obviously scaring teams)

Josh Sweat, OLB, Florida St (knees scare me, especially since he's been passed on so far and showed elite athleticism at combine)

Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon

Anthony Averett, CB, Alabama

Andrew Brown, DL, Virginia

Duke Ejiofor, OLB, Wake Forest

Ogbonnia Okowronku, OLB, Oklahoma

Ade Aruna, OLB, Tulane

Dane Cruikshank, CB/S, Arizona

Bilal Nichols, DL, Delaware

 

I'll add these guys for me.....

 

WR Deon Cain

WR DaeSean Hamilton

OT Jamarco Jones

OT Desmond Harrison

DE Dorrance Armstrong

CB Nick Nelson

CB DJ Reed

 

Sweat,Crosby, and Cain are my top 3.

[David]

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[Old Style]

 

Next years #2 obviously has less value than a 2 pick next year. A number 4 this year is tough to give up but the Bears dont even have a 3rd rounder this year so instead of a 1,2 and 4, they have a 1,2 and 2. I don’t know I’m not an expert in these things but it doesn’t seem terrible to me

Your first sentence doesn’t make any sense and the Bears have two 4th round picks this year so after trading one we still have the other.

 

What do you mean? You disagree that a 2nd round pick next year is less valuable right now than a 2nd round pick this year?

Re-read your original post again.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

What do you mean? You disagree that a 2nd round pick next year is less valuable right now than a 2nd round pick this year?

You can't just call them both 2nd round picks and pretend that's the same thing. They traded into the back of the 2nd and may have traded away an early to mid 2nd to do it.

[WrigleyField 22]

Draftteks day 3 mock (comments are my own)

 

Rd 4-

Josh Sweat, EDGE, FSU

Nice length and athleticism, and three year producer st FSU. Would like this pick.

 

Rd 5-

Kevin Toliver II, CB, LSU

Big bodied CB (6'2"), but li backed production. Always ma ki es sense to add DB depth though.

 

Rd 6-

Christian LaCouture, DE, LSU

Seems kind of like a ho-hum DL prospect. Older prospects. No elite traits. Good production over 4 years. Fills a need though.

 

Rd 7-

KC McDermott, OT, Miami

Meh. But most 7th rounders are meh. Sounds like a future Bradley Sowell if all hits.

 

All in all something like that would be okay with me. Obviously you dont really want to draft on need on day 3, but those would all hit some needs on some level.

[raw]

My Day 3 board:

 

Maurice Hurst, DL, Michigan (heart issue, said to not be threatening, obviously scaring teams)

Josh Sweat, OLB, Florida St (knees scare me, especially since he's been passed on so far and showed elite athleticism at combine)

Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon

Anthony Averett, CB, Alabama

Andrew Brown, DL, Virginia

Duke Ejiofor, OLB, Wake Forest

Ogbonnia Okowronku, OLB, Oklahoma

Ade Aruna, OLB, Tulane

Dane Cruikshank, CB/S, Arizona

Bilal Nichols, DL, Delaware

 

I'll add these guys for me.....

 

WR Deon Cain

WR DaeSean Hamilton

OT Jamarco Jones

OT Desmond Harrison

DE Dorrance Armstrong

CB Nick Nelson

CB DJ Reed

 

Sweat,Crosby, and Cain are my top 3.

 

Yeah, Cain and Hamilton would be easily in my top 5 (along w/ Sweat, Crosby, Hurst) if the Bears didn't pick a WR yesterday, didn't include them because I just don't see them going w/ another WR.

 

My "next 3" would be Armstrong, Nelson, and Jones.

[raw]

Draftteks day 3 mock (comments are my own)

 

Rd 4-

Josh Sweat, EDGE, FSU

Nice length and athleticism, and three year producer st FSU. Would like this pick.

 

Rd 5-

Kevin Toliver II, CB, LSU

Big bodied CB (6'2"), but li backed production. Always ma ki es sense to add DB depth though.

 

Rd 6-

Christian LaCouture, DE, LSU

Seems kind of like a ho-hum DL prospect. Older prospects. No elite traits. Good production over 4 years. Fills a need though.

 

Rd 7-

KC McDermott, OT, Miami

Meh. But most 7th rounders are meh. Sounds like a future Bradley Sowell if all hits.

 

All in all something like that would be okay with me. Obviously you dont really want to draft on need on day 3, but those would all hit some needs on some level.

 

Really like Toliver. Has some off-field stuff. Would be interesting if Pace takes a shot with him if there in the 5th. Another big CB I like is Tarvarus McFadden from FSU. Former high recruit and some good tape in his past before a pretty crappy year in 2017. He's not very fast though. Holton Hill is another big CB with off-field issues.

 

Don't know much about the last 2 or the late DT/OT guys in general. But I'm good if they come out of this with Sweat and one of those CBs (some smaller slot CBs I like still there too).

[WrigleyField 22]

So I'm kind of walking myself into being on board with the trade last night. I think we definitely needed to add a high level WR prospect at some point over the next year, and so we paid the 4th to do it now instead of next year. Why do I like getting the pick a year early?

 

The Bears should be thinking about the next 3-4 years as their first serious window. Mitch should be well underpaid for his production, and the overall cap outlook is comfortable enough that they can maintain some agressiveness in FA. To that point this year will likely still be a bit of a transition year (hopefully competing for playoff spot, but not serious SB contender), but it gets that high level WR prospect in here now so that he doesn't lose a year of development time that aligns perfectly with the Mitch Trubisky rookie scale window. So I think this year and even next will be our window to pay that "time value" premium. Now some people probably think we need to be more serious contenders first. But I dont see it that way, you want to be out ahead of your potential curve in order to maximize it (because rookies take development time).

 

Then around 2021/22 when Mitch is maybe the highest paid player in football you go the other direction and start trading down or into the future for more depth and take swings later on.

 

So that's how I've backed into my justification and I'm sticking to it.

[raw]

Forgot about Quinton Meeks. Another good big CB still on the board. He might actually be in my top 10.

[davell]

My Day 3 board:

 

Maurice Hurst, DL, Michigan (heart issue, said to not be threatening, obviously scaring teams)

Josh Sweat, OLB, Florida St (knees scare me, especially since he's been passed on so far and showed elite athleticism at combine)

Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon

Anthony Averett, CB, Alabama

Andrew Brown, DL, Virginia

Duke Ejiofor, OLB, Wake Forest

Ogbonnia Okowronku, OLB, Oklahoma

Ade Aruna, OLB, Tulane

Dane Cruikshank, CB/S, Arizona

Bilal Nichols, DL, Delaware

 

I'll add these guys for me.....

 

WR Deon Cain

WR DaeSean Hamilton

OT Jamarco Jones

OT Desmond Harrison

DE Dorrance Armstrong

CB Nick Nelson

CB DJ Reed

 

Sweat,Crosby, and Cain are my top 3.

 

Yeah, Cain and Hamilton would be easily in my top 5 (along w/ Sweat, Crosby, Hurst) if the Bears didn't pick a WR yesterday, didn't include them because I just don't see them going w/ another WR.

 

My "next 3" would be Armstrong, Nelson, and Jones.

 

Jones would be a very nice add for Hiestand to work on. I'd love to see them draft Massie's replacement today.

 

No idea what to suspect today, because I truly figure they just drafted 3 starters. Nothing would shock me. I could even see a QB taken. A RB may get drafted today. Kind of suspect we will take one actually. I don't expect a TE. WR COULD still be addressed, but I agree it's unlikely. I do think the O-Line gets addressed again. I'm guessing they'll grab an Edge at some point. Doubt they take an interior D-Line, but it's possible. Won't be taking another ILB. Another DB is possible. Could even take 2.

 

My biggest needs left

 

Edge

CB depth

Massie replacement for next year

Depth at one of RB, WR, S, or DO

 

But just go straight BPA and hope for the best. Still can't believe we've already got what we've got.

[Bertz]

So I'm kind of walking myself into being on board with the trade last night. I think we definitely needed to add a high level WR prospect at some point over the next year, and so we paid the 4th to do it now instead of next year. Why do I like getting the pick a year early?

 

The Bears should be thinking about the next 3-4 years as their first serious window. Mitch should be well underpaid for his production, and the overall cap outlook is comfortable enough that they can maintain some agressiveness in FA. To that point this year will likely still be a bit of a transition year (hopefully competing for playoff spot, but not serious SB contender), but it gets that high level WR prospect in here now so that he doesn't lose a year of development time that aligns perfectly with the Mitch Trubisky rookie scale window. So I think this year and even next will be our window to pay that "time value" premium. Now some people probably think we need to be more serious contenders first. But I dont see it that way, you want to be out ahead of your potential curve in order to maximize it (because rookies take development time).

 

Then around 2021/22 when Mitch is maybe the highest paid player in football you go the other direction and start trading down or into the future for more depth and take swings later on.

 

So that's how I've backed into my justification and I'm sticking to it.

 

I think the window thing is a very real consideration. Timing this pick to sync with Trubisky's rookie contract has value. That's part of why the Eagles and(especially) Rams used up so much of their draft capital on trading for veterans, really trying to strenghten their teams around Goff and Wentz while they're cheap.

 

Also, the strengths of this draft were round 1 QBs and general depth in round 2. Assuming next year is a normal draft, it's very possible pick 50 this year is graded pretty equivalently to pick 40 next year, even excluding TVM considerations.

[David]

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[davell]

The more I've read on Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, the more I like him. I'd be happy with him in the 4th too. Meeks as well, for that matter.

[David]

 

this catch at 1:26, good lord