Manny Machado Traded to the Dodgers

[Sammy Sofa]

So why does Fangraphs seemingly not view there to be a huge difference between their value offensively (again, minus Harper's bat horsefeathers bonkers 2015)?

 

This largely seems like, as mentioned, the appeal of Harper's ceiling more than anything. Which, hey, makes sense! I just don't think signing Machado instead is this terrible consolation prize.

 

Both really came into their own offensively in 2015.

 

wOBA

 

Harper

15: .461

16: .343 (injury shortened)

17: .416 (injury shortened)

18: .361 (as discussed elsewhere, this looks likely to jump higher)

ZiPS Rest of Season: .389

Career: .381

 

Machado

15: .370

16: .366

17: .328

18: .395

ZiPS Rest of Season: .359

Career: .348

 

Machado is only equivalent with the bat if you think his first 10 weeks of 2018 are the new norm indefinitely. Considering Machado's defense is no longer a value add at all(which coincided with him maturing physically and his offense taking off), there's no reason to consider the overall package better unless you make that assumption either.

 

Ah, but I don't think they're equivalent offensively.

 

there doesn't seem to be this yawning gap of talent/value between the two that makes Harper such a slam dunk obvious choice over Machado

 

I was never saying that Harper wasn't technically the better choice; I'm just not really sold as him being this OBVIOUSLY, significantly better option worth a no doubt historic contract (I mean, I'm kind of assuming he's going to get a LOT more than Machado, so maybe I'm wrong there), and, to be honest, what you're posting doesn't really dissuade me of that.

 

I guess I'll ask it this way: is anyone here looking it as a "Harper or bust" kind of situation? Like, would it be a huge disappointment/downgrade to have to "settle" for Machado instead?

 

Bonus dumb question: how much better would Bryant be in RF than Bryant there?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I guess I'll ask it this way: is anyone here looking it as a "Harper or bust" kind of situation? Like, would it be a huge disappointment/downgrade to have to "settle" for Machado instead?

 

I will admit to less than 100% rationality, but I would be bitterly disappointed with Machado. I don't believe in his bat, I don't believe in his glove, and adding him requires doing suboptimal things with other core players.

 

Or let's put this another way, I expect Machado to be a .360ish wOBA guy with average defense at 3B, and unplayable at SS. That's Travis Shaw/Mike Moustakas caliber.

[Cubswin11]

I guess I'll ask it this way: is anyone here looking it as a "Harper or bust" kind of situation? Like, would it be a huge disappointment/downgrade to have to "settle" for Machado instead?

 

I will admit to less than 100% rationality, but I would be bitterly disappointed with Machado. I don't believe in his bat, I don't believe in his glove, and adding him requires doing suboptimal things with other core players.

 

Or let's put this another way, I expect Machado to be a .360ish wOBA guy with average defense at 3B, and unplayable at SS. That's Travis Shaw/Mike Moustakas caliber.

Yeah this is how I feel. With him proving not to be a SS at all I really don’t care to get him.

[Derwood]

Machado is going to the Yankees so....

[Sammy Sofa]

I guess I'll ask it this way: is anyone here looking it as a "Harper or bust" kind of situation? Like, would it be a huge disappointment/downgrade to have to "settle" for Machado instead?

 

I will admit to less than 100% rationality, but I would be bitterly disappointed with Machado. I don't believe in his bat, I don't believe in his glove, and adding him requires doing suboptimal things with other core players.

 

Or let's put this another way, I expect Machado to be a .360ish wOBA guy with average defense at 3B, and unplayable at SS. That's Travis Shaw/Mike Moustakas caliber.

Yeah this is how I feel. With him proving not to be a SS at all I really don’t care to get him.

 

Fair enough (from both of you).

 

I'd technically prefer Harper, but I like Machado a lot, and would like to think Theo and co. have him in mind as a backup plan if they can't work things out with Harper or change their mind about him.

[Cubswin11]

 

I will admit to less than 100% rationality, but I would be bitterly disappointed with Machado. I don't believe in his bat, I don't believe in his glove, and adding him requires doing suboptimal things with other core players.

 

Or let's put this another way, I expect Machado to be a .360ish wOBA guy with average defense at 3B, and unplayable at SS. That's Travis Shaw/Mike Moustakas caliber.

Yeah this is how I feel. With him proving not to be a SS at all I really don’t care to get him.

 

Fair enough (from both of you).

 

I'd technically prefer Harper, but I like Machado a lot, and would like to think Theo and co. have him in mind as a backup plan if they can't work things out with Harper or change their mind about him.

I really hope he’s not a plan of any sort. It’s Bryce or bust for the big $$$ guy and if he goes elsewhere stand pat mostly. I’d maybe go spend biggish on Britton or Miller but I’d just pass overall on spending big for any non-Bryce FA and just do a smaller bullpen add or 2, backup catcher and do like a Smyly signing if there’s a guy like that out there and then maybe look at a Willy, Russell (if he shows improvement) or Rizzo extension.

Edited June 15, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Sammy Sofa]

I would definitely rather have Machado over Rizzo (not that this head to head really makes any sense).

 

[mul21]

I would definitely rather have Machado over Rizzo (not that this head to head really makes any sense).

 

 

I’m going to need to see some sTAR calculations to prove this (sofa Tinyface Above Replacement).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Has Machado *really* beyond a shadow of a doubt proven he can not play SS? Defensive stats like UZR and DRS require multiple (2-3+) years of sample rather than a couple months...I definitely prefer Harper by a huge margin but view Machado as a stud too.

 

This year makes 3 of 4 years(not so coincidentally matching the start of his power surge/physical maturity) where he’s been average at 3B, poor at SS, or both. I’m open to the idea that a team can be optimistic and think of him as a primary backup, filling in a few games a year or maybe for a DL stint, but someone sinking big dollars into Machado as a primary shortstop is making a mistake.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

The Orioles have received offers from the Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs, and the offers rank in that order of appeal, according to the source.

 

All the offers are said to be “very close” in appeal according to the source. Several other teams have checked in on Machado.

 

...

 

The players in the Dodgers’ offer to the Orioles are unknown, but their current offer did not include either top prospect outfielder Alex Verdugo or right-hander Yadier Álvarez.

 

The Orioles expressed interest in Verdugo and his name was discussed in talks between the teams, but Álvarez’s name was only bantered about briefly, the source said. Verdugo is ranked as the Dodgers’ second-best prospect, according to Baseball America, and Alvarez is ranked fifth.

 

Still, the Orioles’ desire is to acquire the top prospects or young controllable players available — with an emphasis on pitching and left-side infielders — in exchange for Machado.

[Sammy Sofa]

What does it say about the Yankees that they're not even on the list? Obviously these are just rumors, but I have to think there's a good shot that whoever trades for Machado will likely try really hard to sign him long term. Machado has been assumed to be the big FA target for the Yankees in the offseason; are they just assuming they'll be able to lure him away from wherever he's traded to? Or does this mean maybe they prefer Harper?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

What does it say about the Yankees that they're not even on the list? Obviously these are just rumors, but I have to think there's a good shot that whoever trades for Machado will likely try really hard to sign him long term. Machado has been assumed to be the big FA target for the Yankees in the offseason; are they just assuming they'll be able to lure him away from wherever he's traded to? Or does this mean maybe they prefer Harper?

 

The Orioles’ reputation suggests they won’t trade him in-division or to the Nationals.

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh, that Angelos.

[Cubswin11]

What does it say about the Yankees that they're not even on the list? Obviously these are just rumors, but I have to think there's a good shot that whoever trades for Machado will likely try really hard to sign him long term. Machado has been assumed to be the big FA target for the Yankees in the offseason; are they just assuming they'll be able to lure him away from wherever he's traded to? Or does this mean maybe they prefer Harper?

 

The Orioles’ reputation suggests they won’t trade him in-division or to the Nationals.

Yeah the Orioles might literally have the Yankees numbers blocked.

[PackLandVA]

Wouldn’t mind seeing the Cards or Dodgers lose a couple top prospects for a rental.

[imb]

If the dodgers trade for him you can bet he re-signs there

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If the dodgers trade for him you can bet he re-signs there

 

They do have Turner and Seager still, but more importantly, Friedman would rather throw his first born into a volcano than give a 9 figure contract.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Give them Chatwood.

[imb]

If the dodgers trade for him you can bet he re-signs there

 

They do have Turner and Seager still, but more importantly, Friedman would rather throw his first born into a volcano than give a 9 figure contract.

 

yeah good point the dodgers are pretty frugal

[jersey cubs fan]

If the dodgers trade for him you can bet he re-signs there

 

They do have Turner and Seager still, but more importantly, Friedman would rather throw his first born into a volcano than give a 9 figure contract.

 

yeah good point the dodgers are pretty frugal

the owners are under investigation for financial shenanigans

[imb]

sounds made up

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If the dodgers trade for him you can bet he re-signs there

 

They do have Turner and Seager still, but more importantly, Friedman would rather throw his first born into a volcano than give a 9 figure contract.

 

yeah good point the dodgers are pretty frugal

 

In 4 years there Friedman has given out all of 2 contracts over 50 million or 15 million AAV, 5/80 for Jansen and 4/64 for Turner (which was below market value). I'm not crossing them off, but we've joked many times about his love of efficiency uber alles, so I'm not going to consider them the favorite for anyone who is gonna require 20 million+ AAV

[imb]

part of that has been waiting for this FA class though.

[Bertz]

JP Morosi makes it sound like the Brewers are the frontrunners for Machado. I'm torn on that. On the one hand obviously you don't want them getting good players, but on the other hand most of their success can be attributed to defense, and Manny at SS would piss all over that.

[PackLandVA]

Isn’t most of their success this year based on timely hitting, production from players well over their careeer numbers, solid starting pitching, a really good bullpen, and a bunch of 1-run victories?