Manny Machado Traded to the Dodgers

[JennieGarthAlgar]

Hopefully, Theo is just trying to drive up the price for the Cards to acquire Machado.

 

I hope this is true, the Cardinals really shouldnt be driving anything anymore

[Cubswin11]

[Thusly Boned]

Hopefully, Theo is just trying to drive up the price for the Cards to acquire Machado.

Bingo

 

 

Yeah, this has to be it.

 

Machado is a fine player, but trading for him doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. I really don't like the idea of giving up some of our best young players to acquire a player who may very well prove to be a one year rental and while certainly an upgrade, isn't so at a position of dire need.

 

I'd much, much rather leave the infield as is, concentrate on pitching (Darvish, plz) this offseason and spend on Harper the next. I like the odds of the offense being really horsefeathering good next year as it is.

 

But if the pretense of serious interest in Machado prices the Cardinals out (or better yet leads them to overpay), then great.

[17 Seconds]

is driving up the price for an opponent a real thing?

[Cubfanintheknow]

is driving up the price for an opponent a real thing?

 

Ryan Pace says, "no."

[mul21]

TT, what’s your rationale for thinking the Cubs want to replace Jake’s star power? That seems like an arbitrary thing that this front office wouldn’t get caught up in.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

TT, what’s your rationale for thinking the Cubs want to replace Jake’s star power? That seems like an arbitrary thing that this front office wouldn’t get caught up in.

 

I don't mean that they want someone who Joe Fan recognizes, I mean they literally want to have a star-caliber player added. This is clearly an era where merely good teams are at a greater disadvantages, as the best teams load up as much as possible. The marginal benefit of Darvish over Cobb is greater for the Cubs(especially given their rotation situation) than it is for a team not smack dab in the middle of a competitive window. Darvish, Hendricks, Q, Lester/Chatwood makes for a much more potent playoff rotation than one without Darvish and with a different FA.

 

Someone convince me that trading for Machado at all is the right move - I mean, he's obviously an excellent player, but it seems like getting him is going to require a lot of long-term value, if what's said about the Orioles' asking price is true. And for a team with a window like ours, giving away a bunch of long-term value for one year of an excellent player (who, I might add, does not really fill a position of need for us) seems like a sub-optimal use of resources.

 

Obviously, if we do trade for him, I'll be excited to watch him for a year, but I just have a hard time feeling too jazzed about any scenario that involves trading for Machado. And I agree with TT - any trade that involves sending Russell for Machado makes particularly little sense to me. If Russell is flipped for pitching, especially a good pitcher with multiple years of control, then that makes more sense.

 

I'll preface this with the thought that I've never been over the moon about Machado personally, even before he was a trade target. And I'm closer to a years of team control fetishist so I'm more inclined like you to see big moves be for people who stick around. But the front office is really smart and it's undeniable they have real interest in Machado at this point, so let's try to piece it together. If I had to guess, I'd say it's due to the SP market and the luxury tax.

 

The Cubs could really use a pretty good SP to stay at the top of the NL pecking order, and not just someone you can squint and see a path to being real good, like Chatwood or Cobb. That means the FA options in this vein are Darvish or bust. Darvish isn't going to be cheap, and while it is possible to sign him and still get Harper next year, you probably have to get creative, and that's before the reality of the 2018 season happens. Maybe a key pitcher like Quintana or Morrow has their shoulder blow up in August. Now your margin for error gets all the more thin and maybe involves some sub-ideal options like bribing a team to take on a contract(Zobrist? Lester?) with actual good players. So if the FA option is a narrow path, then we're left with the trade market. The Cubs could trade Happ or Almora without a ton of hurt, but the prospect pool is thin enough behind them and those 2 have enough flaws that it limits the market of pitcher you can get, you're probably back to doing more hoping that the pitcher is real good than you want.

 

But, what if there was a way to open yourself up to get a higher end trade candidate? That would involve Russell, who has the best combo of team control, youth, and potential of the non-Rizzo/Bryant/Contreras position players. Sure you could do that straight up and move Baez to SS, but that itself is a downgrade that mitigates the benefit. Insert Machado. You use other players to get Machado where the downgrade is much more marginal(Montgomery and Almora can be replaced without a lot of tears, for example). Now you can use Russell to get your SP that belongs in a playoff rotation, and you've also gotten a sizable upgrade for this year(a peak competitive year) on top of that. This fits much more cleanly into the luxury tax because Machado's money disappears after 2018, and the SP you acquire is going to make far less than Cobb/Darvish.

 

Said another way, I'll go back to my point at the top, this is about stars. Trading for Machado and using Russell for a good SP maximizes your stars in 2018, and it's the path that makes it easiest to get another star player(almost certainly Harper) to replace Machado in the long run. You can possibly do that another way, but it could get dicey and has its own downsides.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

I like it. Machado and an Archer type on the roster this year would then turn in to Harper and Archer type next year plus the pick we would get for Machado. Makes sense.

 

In this scenario, who are the shortstops that would be available in 2019 that we would have to look at?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I like it. Machado and an Archer type on the roster this year would then turn in to Harper and Archer type next year plus the pick we would get for Machado. Makes sense.

 

In this scenario, who are the shortstops that would be available in 2019 that we would have to look at?

 

I think you give the most serious consideration to Baez, he's made slow but noticeable progress and if he takes another step forward this year you probably aren't going to do better. Adding Harper coincidentally helps with this, because you can move Heyward to CF and free up Happ to 2B if you've traded Almora and Zobrist isn't startable.

 

The Free Agent options are pretty uninspiring. Galvis, Hechevarria, Jose Iglesias, etc. Not players you want starting on a championship contender. So if it's not Baez you're looking at a trade, but my money would be on finding a LH hitting SS with decent enough plate discipline to be a hedge against Baez's worst flaws while still giving Javy the bulk of playing time.

[Tim]

I like it. Machado and an Archer type on the roster this year would then turn in to Harper and Archer type next year plus the pick we would get for Machado. Makes sense.

 

In this scenario, who are the shortstops that would be available in 2019 that we would have to look at?

Zach Short.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

I'll preface this with the thought that I've never been over the moon about Machado personally, even before he was a trade target. And I'm closer to a years of team control fetishist so I'm more inclined like you to see big moves be for people who stick around. But the front office is really smart and it's undeniable they have real interest in Machado at this point, so let's try to piece it together. If I had to guess, I'd say it's due to the SP market and the luxury tax.

 

The Cubs could really use a pretty good SP to stay at the top of the NL pecking order, and not just someone you can squint and see a path to being real good, like Chatwood or Cobb. That means the FA options in this vein are Darvish or bust. Darvish isn't going to be cheap, and while it is possible to sign him and still get Harper next year, you probably have to get creative, and that's before the reality of the 2018 season happens. Maybe a key pitcher like Quintana or Morrow has their shoulder blow up in August. Now your margin for error gets all the more thin and maybe involves some sub-ideal options like bribing a team to take on a contract(Zobrist? Lester?) with actual good players. So if the FA option is a narrow path, then we're left with the trade market. The Cubs could trade Happ or Almora without a ton of hurt, but the prospect pool is thin enough behind them and those 2 have enough flaws that it limits the market of pitcher you can get, you're probably back to doing more hoping that the pitcher is real good than you want.

 

But, what if there was a way to open yourself up to get a higher end trade candidate? That would involve Russell, who has the best combo of team control, youth, and potential of the non-Rizzo/Bryant/Contreras position players. Sure you could do that straight up and move Baez to SS, but that itself is a downgrade that mitigates the benefit. Insert Machado. You use other players to get Machado where the downgrade is much more marginal(Montgomery and Almora can be replaced without a lot of tears, for example). Now you can use Russell to get your SP that belongs in a playoff rotation, and you've also gotten a sizable upgrade for this year(a peak competitive year) on top of that. This fits much more cleanly into the luxury tax because Machado's money disappears after 2018, and the SP you acquire is going to make far less than Cobb/Darvish.

 

Said another way, I'll go back to my point at the top, this is about stars. Trading for Machado and using Russell for a good SP maximizes your stars in 2018, and it's the path that makes it easiest to get another star player(almost certainly Harper) to replace Machado in the long run. You can possibly do that another way, but it could get dicey and has its own downsides.

 

I agree with all of this. I’ve also had a couple other thoughts I’ve considered on why they might be interested in Machado right now.

 

I assume Kris Bryant has thoughts on Harper’s free agency. And I assume those thoughts have been shared with the front office. While we all hope Harper is fixated on joining the Cubs, what if Bryant has told the FO that Harper’s highest priority seems to be staying with the Nats? What if Bryant has told the FO that Harper seems really interested in playing for LA or the Yankees? What if Bryant has told the FO that he thinks Harper is interested in the Cubs but he is going to go where he gets the best deal?

 

In addition, we know the Dodgers and Yankees have made moves to get under the luxury tax so they can spend big next year. Maybe Theo has decided that the Cubs most advantageous time to go over the tax is this year at a time when other big spending teams are not going over.

 

As I noted earlier I agree with TT’s thought process. But in addition, maybe they are actually willing to go over the tax this year—or go for their superstar—because waiting until next year may not be their most advantageous move.

[CubsWin]

TT, what’s your rationale for thinking the Cubs want to replace Jake’s star power? That seems like an arbitrary thing that this front office wouldn’t get caught up in.

 

I don't mean that they want someone who Joe Fan recognizes, I mean they literally want to have a star-caliber player added. This is clearly an era where merely good teams are at a greater disadvantages, as the best teams load up as much as possible. The marginal benefit of Darvish over Cobb is greater for the Cubs(especially given their rotation situation) than it is for a team not smack dab in the middle of a competitive window. Darvish, Hendricks, Q, Lester/Chatwood makes for a much more potent playoff rotation than one without Darvish and with a different FA.

 

Someone convince me that trading for Machado at all is the right move - I mean, he's obviously an excellent player, but it seems like getting him is going to require a lot of long-term value, if what's said about the Orioles' asking price is true. And for a team with a window like ours, giving away a bunch of long-term value for one year of an excellent player (who, I might add, does not really fill a position of need for us) seems like a sub-optimal use of resources.

 

Obviously, if we do trade for him, I'll be excited to watch him for a year, but I just have a hard time feeling too jazzed about any scenario that involves trading for Machado. And I agree with TT - any trade that involves sending Russell for Machado makes particularly little sense to me. If Russell is flipped for pitching, especially a good pitcher with multiple years of control, then that makes more sense.

 

I'll preface this with the thought that I've never been over the moon about Machado personally, even before he was a trade target. And I'm closer to a years of team control fetishist so I'm more inclined like you to see big moves be for people who stick around. But the front office is really smart and it's undeniable they have real interest in Machado at this point, so let's try to piece it together. If I had to guess, I'd say it's due to the SP market and the luxury tax.

 

The Cubs could really use a pretty good SP to stay at the top of the NL pecking order, and not just someone you can squint and see a path to being real good, like Chatwood or Cobb. That means the FA options in this vein are Darvish or bust. Darvish isn't going to be cheap, and while it is possible to sign him and still get Harper next year, you probably have to get creative, and that's before the reality of the 2018 season happens. Maybe a key pitcher like Quintana or Morrow has their shoulder blow up in August. Now your margin for error gets all the more thin and maybe involves some sub-ideal options like bribing a team to take on a contract(Zobrist? Lester?) with actual good players. So if the FA option is a narrow path, then we're left with the trade market. The Cubs could trade Happ or Almora without a ton of hurt, but the prospect pool is thin enough behind them and those 2 have enough flaws that it limits the market of pitcher you can get, you're probably back to doing more hoping that the pitcher is real good than you want.

 

But, what if there was a way to open yourself up to get a higher end trade candidate? That would involve Russell, who has the best combo of team control, youth, and potential of the non-Rizzo/Bryant/Contreras position players. Sure you could do that straight up and move Baez to SS, but that itself is a downgrade that mitigates the benefit. Insert Machado. You use other players to get Machado where the downgrade is much more marginal(Montgomery and Almora can be replaced without a lot of tears, for example). Now you can use Russell to get your SP that belongs in a playoff rotation, and you've also gotten a sizable upgrade for this year(a peak competitive year) on top of that. This fits much more cleanly into the luxury tax because Machado's money disappears after 2018, and the SP you acquire is going to make far less than Cobb/Darvish.

 

Said another way, I'll go back to my point at the top, this is about stars. Trading for Machado and using Russell for a good SP maximizes your stars in 2018, and it's the path that makes it easiest to get another star player(almost certainly Harper) to replace Machado in the long run. You can possibly do that another way, but it could get dicey and has its own downsides.

That's good thinking but in order for it to work, Baltimore would have to agree to trade Machado for Montgomery + without the plus being Russell or Baez. Are you agreeing to Happ or Schwarber or are you thinking Monty, Almora and Alzolay (+ lesser prospects maybe) gets it done?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That's good thinking but in order for it to work, Baltimore would have to agree to trade Machado for Montgomery + without the plus being Russell or Baez. Are you agreeing to Happ or Schwarber or are you thinking Monty, Almora and Alzolay (+ lesser prospects maybe) gets it done?

 

Montgomery and Almora alone is a real healthy offer for Machado. Maybe the Orioles don't agree, and that's likely a big reason why this isn't plan A as opposed to Darvish, but one year of Machado at 15 million is not going to be worth it if he commands an absurd ransom. With the rumors as persistent as they are, I have to assume that the Orioles are at least somewhat realistic, or maybe they're more interested in an expanded deal with Gausman that serves as one stop shopping and would in fact justify 3 or more MLB caliber assets.

[CubsWin]

That's good thinking but in order for it to work, Baltimore would have to agree to trade Machado for Montgomery + without the plus being Russell or Baez. Are you agreeing to Happ or Schwarber or are you thinking Monty, Almora and Alzolay (+ lesser prospects maybe) gets it done?

 

Montgomery and Almora alone is a real healthy offer for Machado. Maybe the Orioles don't agree, and that's likely a big reason why this isn't plan A as opposed to Darvish, but one year of Machado at 15 million is not going to be worth it if he commands an absurd ransom. With the rumors as persistent as they are, I have to assume that the Orioles are at least somewhat realistic, or maybe they're more interested in an expanded deal with Gausman that serves as one stop shopping and would in fact justify 3 or more MLB caliber assets.

Gotcha. We're going on Monty and Almora being acceptable to Baltimore. Understood.

 

Who knows what that front office is thinking. We shall soon find out I suspect...

[biittner77]

Two questions I have:

 

Machado wants to play SS but he hasn't done that on a full time basis in 5 years. I guess he did have 45 games at SS 2 years ago. Just how much defense would the Cubs be giving up to gain Machado's offense which was down the first half of last season and *could* be affected by changing leagues.

 

The Orioles are likely to want a lot for Machado or they will just keep him. From a selling ticket standpoint, they'd be better off moving him at the deadline for what they could get than taking whatever deal the Cubs are willing to offer now. I'm thinking they will want a 5 for 1 type deal with Almora and Happ being 2 of the 5. Is that worth it for 1 season of Machado plus a sandwich pick or whatever they get when he signs elsewhere?

[davell]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

So, this is going to be a serious thing again, I guess. Giving up Addy for Russell is fine, as long as you keep him, I guess? No idea what pitching or OF would be included, or if it's just pure speculation, for what the O's want.

[Tim]

So...how do we fit Machado and Harper into the payroll next year?

[Sammy Sofa]

Give 'em Rizzo instead.

[davell]

So...how do we fit Machado and Harper into the payroll next year?

 

We contract the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, and other big market teams that won't allow it to happen.

[Tim]

So...how do we fit Machado and Harper into the payroll next year?

 

We contract the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, and other big market teams that won't allow it to happen.

pffft

[Derwood]

So what are the Cubs willing to give up for a rental? I can’t inagine he signs an extension without testing the market

[davell]

So what are the Cubs willing to give up for a rental? I can’t inagine he signs an extension without testing the market

 

Article says Addy, plus pitching, plus an OF.....

 

My complete GUESS would be something like Addy, Monty, Lange or Little, and a guy like Zagunis.

 

And that's really steep, in my eyes, but worth it, if we keep him. But yeah, he's hitting FA. Getting him here though could obviously help in KEEPING him here.

[squally1313]

So what are the Cubs willing to give up for a rental? I can’t inagine he signs an extension without testing the market

 

Logistically it'd have to be Russell or Baez, barring injury. Unless the price somehow drops to prospects, it doesn't make much sense otherwise. Any sort of Schwarber/Happ/Almora package comes with a corresponding drop off in the outfield, and we're probably only talking about adding a win or two going from Baez/Russell to Machado by the time the trade gets done.

[Bote McBoteface]

Maybe if a deal can be made with Happ going back as the main piece Id be excited about it. I doubt it, though, so id rather keep Russell and get Harper next year.

[Cubswin11]

No thanks