2017 NLCS GAME 2 (Oct 15) Lester vs the old cub on the Hill. 6:30 CST TBS

[Geech]

 

nothing will top chapman pitching in game 6 and then seeing the obvious result of it in game 7. still can't believe how lucky we got.

 

I'm more upset now than then and by a lot.

 

weird. i mean obviously i get it if you're literally referring to the fact that we won those games, but that was a much more egregious decision by maddon, IMO.

 

Chapman in Game 6 was pretty baffling, but you don't *know* it will turn out awfully in Game 7. Yes, there were good reasons to doubt the move and people did as soon as it happened, but you can see a little bit of wiggle room.

 

Going with Lackey in a high leverage spot so you have Wade for the save. . . just feels like such a fundamental error.

[David]

 

.172/.266./.272 as a team

 

again, no pitching is that good

 

we're facing great pitchers who are executing but we're probably between 2 and 3 standard deviations below where you'd expect this offense to be at. we're in almost worst case scenario territory.

 

Scherzer .178/.242/.319

Kershaw .184/.204/.268 (in 2016)

 

WRONG. Some pitchers are that horsefeathering good.

 

those totals were against, by definition, league averagish offenses (i know it doesn't quite work out that way) not a good one like the cubs and they haven't pitched all, or even close to most, of the innings so far this postseason.

 

the cubs bats are seriously under performing where you'd expect them to be.

 

yes but there's just no such thing as "where you'd expect them to be" in a 7 game sample, especially one where you disproportionately face insanely good pitchers and throw in one weather nightmare for good measure. it's just baseball. it's sequencing luck, batted ball luck, etc. and sometimes it adds up to things that look like trends that are really meaningless.

[raw]

i'm still more upset about our impotent offense

 

how can everyone slump at the same time

 

IDK. It's almost like they faced 4 starts in 7 games against guys who will be top 3 in the Cy Young this year.

 

I mean fine but that's not really a good "excuse." for one, josh fields isn't winning the cy young and neither is brandon morrow. also sale and kluber and severino and Hendricks and Lester and greinke and ray and berrios have all had mediocre to horrendous outings. I mean you're gonna face good pitching. the fact that the cubs are sucking against good pitching doesn't mean they're not sucking.

 

I didn't say it was a good excuse or mean that they don't suck. And you can't really compare not hitting relievers in 1 inning stints to not hitting starters. And FWIW, the Dodgers have the best pen in the league. But anyone in their right mind had to go into full/extended rest starts by Strasburg, Scherzer, Kershaw and even Hill (5 of 7 games) expecting that giving up 3 runs would lose most of those games.

[David]

 

I'm more upset now than then and by a lot.

 

weird. i mean obviously i get it if you're literally referring to the fact that we won those games, but that was a much more egregious decision by maddon, IMO.

 

Chapman in Game 6 was pretty baffling, but you don't *know* it will turn out awfully in Game 7. Yes, there were good reasons to doubt the move and people did as soon as it happened, but you can see a little bit of wiggle room.

 

Going with Lackey in a high leverage spot so you have Wade for the save. . . just feels like such a fundamental error.

 

coming off a 3 inning save in game 5? once you use him in game 6, you could pretty much nail it down that chapman wasn't going got have much left in the tank if he was needed in game 7.

[soccer10k]

 

I'm more upset now than then and by a lot.

 

weird. i mean obviously i get it if you're literally referring to the fact that we won those games, but that was a much more egregious decision by maddon, IMO.

 

Chapman in Game 6 was pretty baffling, but you don't *know* it will turn out awfully in Game 7. Yes, there were good reasons to doubt the move and people did as soon as it happened, but you can see a little bit of wiggle room.

 

Going with Lackey in a high leverage spot so you have Wade for the save. . . just feels like such a fundamental error.

 

Not immediately getting someone warming up when Rizzo made it a 7 run game was a fundamental error. I, and I'm guessing most other people, were fine with Chapman coming in when he did in Game 6. It was the extra pitches he threw for no reason that we take issue with. That being said, we don't know how much those few pitches affected Chapman in Game 7, if they affected him at all.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

They should give Lackey the Full Metal Jacket treatment, except instead of hitting him with bars of soap, give him a haircut.

[squally1313]

They should give Lackey the Full Metal Jacket treatment, except instead of hitting him with bars of soap, give him a haircut.

This whole fiasco has actually made me feel kinda bad for Lackey? While not a certainty, for better or for worse that's probably going to be the last pitch he ever throws. To get thrown into that situation is pretty brutal.

[SpongeWorthy]

 

Scherzer .178/.242/.319

Kershaw .184/.204/.268 (in 2016)

 

WRONG. Some pitchers are that horsefeathering good.

 

those totals were against, by definition, league averagish offenses (i know it doesn't quite work out that way) not a good one like the cubs and they haven't pitched all, or even close to most, of the innings so far this postseason.

 

the cubs bats are seriously under performing where you'd expect them to be.

 

yes but there's just no such thing as "where you'd expect them to be" in a 7 game sample, especially one where you disproportionately face insanely good pitchers and throw in one weather nightmare for good measure. it's just baseball. it's sequencing luck, batted ball luck, etc. and sometimes it adds up to things that look like trends that are really meaningless.

 

sure, but as long as we're assigning blame to dumbass decisions by joe (and he for sure deserves some blame) we should probably take a look at the impotent bats.

[ScrubMD]

I'm almost as mad about Maddon letting Almora face Jensen. There are 3 lefties with much more power on the bench.

[SpongeWorthy]

also, i would submit we're not putting enough traffic on the basepaths or hitting balls hard enough, often enough to get bit in the ass by bad sequencing or batted ball luck.

 

one of you periph wizards find out what our LD%, o-swing % and all that stuff is compared to our normal periphs. we're expanding and then not hitting anything with authority that does find the zone.

[Old Style]

I’m not saying Lackey should’ve been pitching in that situation but Joe doesn’t have much to work with in that bullpen. And one run isn’t going to win you many playoff games.

[raw]

I'm almost as mad about Maddon letting Almora face Jensen. There are 3 lefties with much more power on the bench.

 

Yeah that was pretty bad too, especially considering he took him out the next half inning anyway.

[raw]

I’m not saying Lackey should’ve been pitching in that situation but Joe doesn’t have much to work with in that bullpen. And one run isn’t going to win you many playoff games.

 

1 run allowed isn't going to lose you many playoff games either, hence why you put your team in the best situation to keep just 1 run allowed on the scoreboard.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

reasons this game was lost:

1. offense sucks turds

2. joe has embraced the suck (see 1)

3. bad game threading

[hawkeyecub]

2 of the 7 hits in L.A. are by our starting pitchers. horsefeathers.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

They should give Lackey the Full Metal Jacket treatment, except instead of hitting him with bars of soap, give him a haircut.

This whole fiasco has actually made me feel kinda bad for Lackey? While not a certainty, for better or for worse that's probably going to be the last pitch he ever throws. To get thrown into that situation is pretty brutal.

 

He deserves it.

[Perd]

Yes, the offense is doo doo butter. But that's not a reason to exacerbate the problem by not bringing in your best reliever with the game on the line.

 

Losing playoff games. You know what that is ,Joe? It's the horsefeathers that happens while you're waiting for moments that ever come.

[hawkeyecub]

The only Lackey excuse is if Wade wasn't right when he was warming up at the same time as John. Especially with Kenley out of the game, just extend it. I'd still rather have Rondon but I really hope Joe is just covering for him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The only Lackey excuse is if Wade wasn't right when he was warming up at the same time as John. Especially with Kenley out of the game, just extend it. I'd still rather have Rondon but I really hope Joe is just covering for him.

 

Sharma adding some context that while Wade was available, he wasn't exactly free for any potential outing:

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

I'm not so sure I think that type of restriction is the right call given 2 days off and another tomorrow, but setting that aside, I can at least see the logic for not wanting to go to Davis for 1 out in the 9th knowing you need at least a scoreless 10th too to win the game. Even with all those caveats though, you don't double switch Lackey into the game. He's not the best or even 2nd best reliever for that spot, and by double switching him you're exposing your decision to let Almora hit with a man on base in the 9th as terrible.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Lackey didnt want to through that pitch. He and Contreras were baaack and forth. Lackey sucked, knew he sucked and Contreras made him through a strike. But Contreras HAD to. GOD DAMMIT that was all kinds of [expletive] crazy

[AramFan]

If we’re being honest, this team doesn't need Joe to get to the play-offs. We need someone who knows how to manage the roster in short series match ups. I don’t believe Joe Madden is going to change at this point in his career. The front office must see the flaws and the window isn't open forever. Each post season is literally priceless. You can’t fire the team, but you can fire an incompetent manager. We won the WS in spite of Joe Madden. Are we really going to deal with this for the next five years?

[davell]

He evidently told Sharma that Davis was on a very strict pitch count and it was predetermined he'd only have been used if the Cubs had the lead.

 

I mean.....If you determine he can pitch, then only letting him pitch with a lead is horsefeathering stupid.

[minnesotacubsfan]

The only Lackey excuse is if Wade wasn't right when he was warming up at the same time as John. Especially with Kenley out of the game, just extend it. I'd still rather have Rondon but I really hope Joe is just covering for him.

 

Sharma adding some context that while Wade was available, he wasn't exactly free for any potential outing:

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

I'm not so sure I think that type of restriction is the right call given 2 days off and another tomorrow, but setting that aside, I can at least see the logic for not wanting to go to Davis for 1 out in the 9th knowing you need at least a scoreless 10th too to win the game. Even with all those caveats though, you don't double switch Lackey into the game. He's not the best or even 2nd best reliever for that spot, and by double switching him you're exposing your decision to let Almora hit with a man on base in the 9th as terrible.

 

Maddon just played that small ball-leave your better outfield in to face the deathman. He wanted Almora's glove because the big 3 couldnt get it done. We're just worn out

[David]

I would hate to be one of you weirdo Cubs and Packers fans today

[squally1313]

Yeah but then he double switched Almora out in the 9th, so obviously he didn't value the glove that much.

 

Even setting aside Wade's status, that's Rondon's spot if Wade can't go. Making Lackey come in to that situation after pitching last night is a borderline fireable offense.