Cubs Acquire Justin Wilson & Alex Avila for Candelario, Paredes & Cash

[Ding Dong Johnson]

[JonJayCutler]

The consensus at Brewerfan.net is mostly satisfaction that they've forced the Cubs into making another "desperate" move and trading away another Top 5 prospect. Someone should remind them of the following:

 

1. Candelario kinda sucks. Don't be fooled by his prospect status.

2. We have plenty of time to restock the farm by the time this major league team has run its course.

3. We're not making these moves to beat the Brewers, but to better compete with the Nats and Dodgerses of the world. I'd expect the same moves if we were currently 10 games up.

[17 Seconds]

you think that's bad? i saw a reds fan say that WE suck

[Bobson Dugnutt]

lmao "our team is in free fall and has surrendered eight games in the standings in three weeks but at least we got the cubs to trade a borderline top 100 prospect to make their team better." yikes. aim higher, brewers fans.

[David]

I still have a fundamental issue with making trades for the playoffs, as though they aren't only marginal improvements in the crapshoot... but, whatever, it worked out last year.

[David]

The consensus at Brewerfan.net is mostly satisfaction that they've forced the Cubs into making another "desperate" move and trading away another Top 5 prospect. Someone should remind them of the following:

 

1. Candelario kinda sucks. Don't be fooled by his prospect status.

2. We have plenty of time to restock the farm by the time this major league team has run its course.

3. We're not making these moves to beat the Brewers, but to better compete with the Nats and Dodgerses of the world. I'd expect the same moves if we were currently 10 games up.

 

Grb thinks Wilson falls somewhere between LOOGY and run of the mill reliever.

[Sammy Sofa]

I still have a fundamental issue with making trades for the playoffs, as though they aren't only marginal improvements in the crapshoot... but, whatever, it worked out last year.

 

Gotta mitigate Joe completely losing his mind in the fall once he's got a fresh batch of RV toilet wine.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I still have a fundamental issue with making trades for the playoffs, as though they aren't only marginal improvements in the crapshoot... but, whatever, it worked out last year.

 

Wilson's around next year, too, though. going into the offseason with CJ, Wilson, Strop, Rondon & Monty (if he's not pegged for the rotation) already penciled in for five pen spots in 2018 is pretty nice.

[jersey cubs fan]

I still have a fundamental issue with making trades for the playoffs, as though they aren't only marginal improvements in the crapshoot... but, whatever, it worked out last year.

I don't have an issue with it because you can help your team have a better shot in the playoffs. But it's also about improving your odds of making the playoffs, and in the case of these deals, it actually made the 2018 team better as well.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

Twitter is just a giant circle jerk of everyone retweeting everyone this time of year. Glad you guys are sifting through it because I won't go near it

 

You don't like twitter?! WE HAD NO IDEA

[David]

I still have a fundamental issue with making trades for the playoffs, as though they aren't only marginal improvements in the crapshoot... but, whatever, it worked out last year.

I don't have an issue with it because you can help your team have a better shot in the playoffs. But it's also about improving your odds of making the playoffs, and in the case of these deals, it actually made the 2018 team better as well.

Sure, I was mainly responding to the idea that this was about the Nats and Dodgers.

[Tryptamine]

The consensus at Brewerfan.net is mostly satisfaction that they've forced the Cubs into making another "desperate" move and trading away another Top 5 prospect. Someone should remind them of the following:

 

1. Candelario kinda sucks. Don't be fooled by his prospect status.

2. We have plenty of time to restock the farm by the time this major league team has run its course.

3. We're not making these moves to beat the Brewers, but to better compete with the Nats and Dodgerses of the world. I'd expect the same moves if we were currently 10 games up.

 

I especially enjoyed the posts that suggested that the Cubs have foregone their chance to be a dynasty to instead try and win now. That somehow in 3 years they wont be good and that this year is their last realistic chance at a World Series.

[Thrilho]

I still have a fundamental issue with making trades for the playoffs, as though they aren't only marginal improvements in the crapshoot... but, whatever, it worked out last year.

I say the same thing I did last year, relative to the playoff crapshoot thing. I think bullpen moves have a disproportionately large impact on that crapshoot math. Especially when you get a top level LHP to deal with the Dodgers and Nats, where we could've been in some trouble counting on Deunsing in a lot of big spots.

 

The Cubs came very close to getting bounced a couple times in the playoffs last year, so I can't really bang the drum again that our chances were a bunch higher than the ~25%, but whatever they were last year I don't think Chapman was a ~1% impact. And adding a lefty setup man who might be able to be used similarly to Miller, I'd think that's got more impact than projected as well.

 

Overall, if I'd had to choose between this or getting a JV I'd do this every time. Regardless of how they pitch the rest of the regular season I want Hendricks and Arrieta in the playoff rotation. Part of that is chemistry for the defending champs but they're also really good, and I don't have any kind of confidence that JV is going to be better.

 

Instead they got that elusive late inning lefty, have him for another year, and could get him to stick around longer. With the two other powerhouses being lefty dominated that's an exciting get. Oh and lefty platoon at catcher for the really tough playoff righties? Yes, totally excited about the deal.

[UMFan83]

The consensus at Brewerfan.net is mostly satisfaction that they've forced the Cubs into making another "desperate" move and trading away another Top 5 prospect. Someone should remind them of the following:

 

1. Candelario kinda sucks. Don't be fooled by his prospect status.

2. We have plenty of time to restock the farm by the time this major league team has run its course.

3. We're not making these moves to beat the Brewers, but to better compete with the Nats and Dodgerses of the world. I'd expect the same moves if we were currently 10 games up.

 

My favorite

 

You are grossly overrating this Cubs team long term.

 

3 years from now Lester and Quintana probably won't be strengths of the team. Lester is 33 and his peripherals are fading, he'll be 36 at that point. Quintana's peripherals are in a 3 year decline already and his velocity is down. The other 3 spots in their rotation are likely to be high paid free agents.

 

Rizzo will be 30 and entering his decline. Bryant will likely still be a stud. Contreras will have 3 more years on his knees which usually slows catchers down. All 3 of them are going to have to be paid heavily. Baez and Russell haven't developed at all and have been inconsistent defensively. The samples are getting large enough that they probably just aren't going to be the stars people thought they were. I don't have a good read on Happ yet but he will certainly help somewhere. Almora looks like he'll be a solid CF but Schwarber has been just awful and should not be in the field and I don't expect much out of Heyward. The entire bullpen except maybe Edwards and Montgomery will be gone with little hope to replenish it via the famr. They have almost nothing left in the farm system and 3 years from now their payroll is going to be stretched. You may say that doesn't matter but the new cba heavily punishes teams that stay at the soft salary cap.

 

The Cubs have mortgaged any chance they have at a long term dynasty over the past 2 seasons to go for wins now. I don't think they are doing the wrong thing, I think they could easily win 1 or 2 more World Series in this stretch. That doesn't change the fact that this is good for the Brewers long term. Anything they can do to make the team 3-6 years from now weaker helps our team. The 2020 Cubs aren't likely to be as good as the 2017 and each year after 2020 they will slip more and more.

 

As for this years Brewers. Adding Quintana, Wilson and Avila leaves us with a roster that I don't think can beat 2 or possibly even 3 of the Nationals, Dodgers and Diamondbacks in the playoffs. We would be trading away some important pieces just to get a wild card game and if we win it a loss in the first round. It just isn't worth it.

[David]

I still have a fundamental issue with making trades for the playoffs, as though they aren't only marginal improvements in the crapshoot... but, whatever, it worked out last year.

I say the same thing I did last year, relative to the playoff crapshoot thing. I think bullpen moves have a disproportionately large impact on that crapshoot math. Especially when you get a top level LHP to deal with the Dodgers and Nats, where we could've been in some trouble counting on Deunsing in a lot of big spots.

 

The Cubs came very close to getting bounced a couple times in the playoffs last year, so I can't really bang the drum again that our chances were a bunch higher than the ~25%, but whatever they were last year I don't think Chapman was a ~1% impact. And adding a lefty setup man who might be able to be used similarly to Miller, I'd think that's got more impact than projected as well.

 

Overall, if I'd had to choose between this or getting a JV I'd do this every time. Regardless of how they pitch the rest of the regular season I want Hendricks and Arrieta in the playoff rotation. Part of that is chemistry for the defending champs but they're also really good, and I don't have any kind of confidence that JV is going to be better.

 

Instead they got that elusive late inning lefty, have him for another year, and could get him to stick around longer. With the two other powerhouses being lefty dominated that's an exciting get. Oh and lefty platoon at catcher for the really tough playoff righties? Yes, totally excited about the deal.

 

I just don't really think there is any playoff secret sauce. And to any degree that there might be something that plays better, I think the impact is minimal. There's just too much variance in baseball and in a short series, and too many rounds to get through.

 

In other words, even if bullpen moves did have a disproportionate impact, how much is it really moving the needle on the 12-15% chance a team has going in (or, at absolute extreme best, if you love the Dodgers as much as FG's projections do, 20%, which I think is overselling their chances). As for your 25% number, that's crazy high. No team has that going into the playoffs.

Edited July 31, 2017 by David

[JennieGarthAlgar]

The consensus at Brewerfan.net is mostly satisfaction that they've forced the Cubs into making another "desperate" move and trading away another Top 5 prospect. Someone should remind them of the following:

 

1. Candelario kinda sucks. Don't be fooled by his prospect status.

2. We have plenty of time to restock the farm by the time this major league team has run its course.

3. We're not making these moves to beat the Brewers, but to better compete with the Nats and Dodgerses of the world. I'd expect the same moves if we were currently 10 games up.

 

My favorite

 

You are grossly overrating this Cubs team long term.

 

3 years from now Lester and Quintana probably won't be strengths of the team. Lester is 33 and his peripherals are fading, he'll be 36 at that point. Quintana's peripherals are in a 3 year decline already and his velocity is down. The other 3 spots in their rotation are likely to be high paid free agents.

 

Rizzo will be 30 and entering his decline. Bryant will likely still be a stud. Contreras will have 3 more years on his knees which usually slows catchers down. All 3 of them are going to have to be paid heavily. Baez and Russell haven't developed at all and have been inconsistent defensively. The samples are getting large enough that they probably just aren't going to be the stars people thought they were. I don't have a good read on Happ yet but he will certainly help somewhere. Almora looks like he'll be a solid CF but Schwarber has been just awful and should not be in the field and I don't expect much out of Heyward. The entire bullpen except maybe Edwards and Montgomery will be gone with little hope to replenish it via the famr. They have almost nothing left in the farm system and 3 years from now their payroll is going to be stretched. You may say that doesn't matter but the new cba heavily punishes teams that stay at the soft salary cap.

 

The Cubs have mortgaged any chance they have at a long term dynasty over the past 2 seasons to go for wins now. I don't think they are doing the wrong thing, I think they could easily win 1 or 2 more World Series in this stretch. That doesn't change the fact that this is good for the Brewers long term. Anything they can do to make the team 3-6 years from now weaker helps our team. The 2020 Cubs aren't likely to be as good as the 2017 and each year after 2020 they will slip more and more.

 

As for this years Brewers. Adding Quintana, Wilson and Avila leaves us with a roster that I don't think can beat 2 or possibly even 3 of the Nationals, Dodgers and Diamondbacks in the playoffs. We would be trading away some important pieces just to get a wild card game and if we win it a loss in the first round. It just isn't worth it.

 

So they think we will only be an NLCS/World Series type team for 6 straight years? I mean if you put it that way, then yeah, lets fire Theo right now.

[Thrilho]

I still have a fundamental issue with making trades for the playoffs, as though they aren't only marginal improvements in the crapshoot... but, whatever, it worked out last year.

I say the same thing I did last year, relative to the playoff crapshoot thing. I think bullpen moves have a disproportionately large impact on that crapshoot math. Especially when you get a top level LHP to deal with the Dodgers and Nats, where we could've been in some trouble counting on Deunsing in a lot of big spots.

 

The Cubs came very close to getting bounced a couple times in the playoffs last year, so I can't really bang the drum again that our chances were a bunch higher than the ~25%, but whatever they were last year I don't think Chapman was a ~1% impact. And adding a lefty setup man who might be able to be used similarly to Miller, I'd think that's got more impact than projected as well.

 

Overall, if I'd had to choose between this or getting a JV I'd do this every time. Regardless of how they pitch the rest of the regular season I want Hendricks and Arrieta in the playoff rotation. Part of that is chemistry for the defending champs but they're also really good, and I don't have any kind of confidence that JV is going to be better.

 

Instead they got that elusive late inning lefty, have him for another year, and could get him to stick around longer. With the two other powerhouses being lefty dominated that's an exciting get. Oh and lefty platoon at catcher for the really tough playoff righties? Yes, totally excited about the deal.

 

I just don't really think there is any playoff secret sauce. And to any degree that there might be something that plays better, I think the impact is minimal. There's just too much variance in baseball and in a short series, and too many rounds to get through.

 

In other words, even if bullpen moves did have a disproportionate impact, how much is it really moving the needle on the 12-15% chance a team has going in (or, at absolute extreme best, if you love the Dodgers as much as FG's projections do, 20%, which I think is overselling their chances). As for your 25% number, that's crazy high. No team has that going into the playoffs.

It's tough for me to put a number on it, but think about the number of times the Cubs could've lost if they didn't have Chapman. Many of the top relievers were nothings by the time the playoffs rolled around. Could be the same thing this year. So part of it is just mitigating a potential huge weakness if the bullpen shortens itself up with injury or performance.

 

But then it's innings pitched. If I wasn't working right now I'd do some research to figure out the percentage of innings pitched over the regular season by some high leverage guys va in the playoffs. You basically don't want the back of your bullpen in there very often at all. And if it's a deep run that's a lot of innings for your top guys. Lot of room for collapse due to overuse.

 

Then you've got matchup stuff. Adding a good power lefty with Monty already there changes a lot of calculus.

 

So...if I'm trying to put a number on it I think if you roll into the playoffs with a bullpen weakness it's dropping you at least 5%. Getting Wilson isn't that whole 5% but given the cascading effects of having another high leverage guy you could say that it's much more likely that you aren't going to drop that whole 5% by entering the playoffs with a bullpen weakness.

[itisallpartoftheplan]

The consensus at Brewerfan.net is mostly satisfaction that they've forced the Cubs into making another "desperate" move and trading away another Top 5 prospect. Someone should remind them of the following:

 

1. Candelario kinda sucks. Don't be fooled by his prospect status.

2. We have plenty of time to restock the farm by the time this major league team has run its course.

3. We're not making these moves to beat the Brewers, but to better compete with the Nats and Dodgerses of the world. I'd expect the same moves if we were currently 10 games up.

 

Remember when the Brewers blew a 6.5 game lead in July of 2014 traded for Gerardo Parra held onto first all of August got swept by the Cubs the first 3 games of September then finished 8 games out of first?? Then turned around and traded Parra for Davies in 2015 so 2 years later when they thought they had a shot of the division Victor Caratini could hit a game winning dong of him? Good times.

[Andy]

StatCorner has Avila and Contreras as the 4th and 3rd worst catchers at pitch framing in 2017.

Saying 'horsefeathers pitch framing, our catchers will just outslug the hell out of yours' is the new market inefficiency

[Thrilho]

And on the WS chances, I was going off 538's odds for the Dodgers (24%) or what the Cubs were at this time last year. I think the Cubs are winning the division, so basically removing that 15% chance of not making the playoffs from the equation on our number.

 

Even if it's 15-20% for your really good teams and not 25% I'm still thinking that bullpen is worth the 5% and a major addition there is worth at least a third of the value you put on bullpen.

[UMFan83]

More of a general Brewers musing, what do you think Theo would have done if in like 2013 he randomly found the Cubs 5.5 games up in the division at the all star break.

 

I'm thinking he would have stuck to the plan and done exactly what the Brewers are doing with their fringe acquisitions because eventually Emilio Bonifacio and Scott Feldman were going to come back to earth, but a 5.5 game division lead is pretty big at the ASB, it would be tempting to go for it to some degree.

[Bote McBoteface]

The Brewers dont really mind us weakening our future team. Just like we dont really mind them giving us a run for our money in the division this year; as doing so does nothing but weaken their draft position for next year and, thus, weaken their team in 2020/21.

[David]

Look, even if the cubs didn't make any moves, there was a good chance they would win the division based on the second half schedules and the talent levels of the two teams. Our good first half at least made them push basically all their remaining chips into the pile and shortened their window. Didn't Theo get run out of Boston for leaving the cupboard totally empty? Hopefully that's what's happening here. This team still isn't in the class of the Dodgers.

 

one of my favorite posts in that brewerfan thread

 

totally empty...lol

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The consensus at Brewerfan.net is mostly satisfaction that they've forced the Cubs into making another "desperate" move and trading away another Top 5 prospect. Someone should remind them of the following:

 

1. Candelario kinda sucks. Don't be fooled by his prospect status.

2. We have plenty of time to restock the farm by the time this major league team has run its course.

3. We're not making these moves to beat the Brewers, but to better compete with the Nats and Dodgerses of the world. I'd expect the same moves if we were currently 10 games up.

 

My favorite

 

You are grossly overrating this Cubs team long term.

 

3 years from now Lester and Quintana probably won't be strengths of the team. Lester is 33 and his peripherals are fading, he'll be 36 at that point. Quintana's peripherals are in a 3 year decline already and his velocity is down. The other 3 spots in their rotation are likely to be high paid free agents.

 

Rizzo will be 30 and entering his decline. Bryant will likely still be a stud. Contreras will have 3 more years on his knees which usually slows catchers down. All 3 of them are going to have to be paid heavily. Baez and Russell haven't developed at all and have been inconsistent defensively. The samples are getting large enough that they probably just aren't going to be the stars people thought they were. I don't have a good read on Happ yet but he will certainly help somewhere. Almora looks like he'll be a solid CF but Schwarber has been just awful and should not be in the field and I don't expect much out of Heyward. The entire bullpen except maybe Edwards and Montgomery will be gone with little hope to replenish it via the famr. They have almost nothing left in the farm system and 3 years from now their payroll is going to be stretched. You may say that doesn't matter but the new cba heavily punishes teams that stay at the soft salary cap.

 

The Cubs have mortgaged any chance they have at a long term dynasty over the past 2 seasons to go for wins now. I don't think they are doing the wrong thing, I think they could easily win 1 or 2 more World Series in this stretch. That doesn't change the fact that this is good for the Brewers long term. Anything they can do to make the team 3-6 years from now weaker helps our team. The 2020 Cubs aren't likely to be as good as the 2017 and each year after 2020 they will slip more and more.

 

As for this years Brewers. Adding Quintana, Wilson and Avila leaves us with a roster that I don't think can beat 2 or possibly even 3 of the Nationals, Dodgers and Diamondbacks in the playoffs. We would be trading away some important pieces just to get a wild card game and if we win it a loss in the first round. It just isn't worth it.

 

These things give me life. Let's apply that lens to the current Brewers roster:

 

- Manny Pina will be 33 and Jett Bandy 30. This assumes their pop-up success isn't a mirage.

- Thames will be 33

- Shaw will be 30

- Braun will be 36

- Keon Broxton will be 30, assuming he's actually played his way back on to the MLB roster

- Domingo Santana will be only 27 though, so they have that going for them

 

And the pitching:

 

- Nelson will be 31

- Chase Anderson will be 32, assuming his arm doesn't fall off again or he doesn't go back to being terrible

- Brent Suter will be 30

- Knebel will be 28 and Hader 26 so that's cool

- There aren't any other good pitchers on their roster

 

So all those prospects you're banking on? You need to hit at a pretty high rate to hold serve. And holding serve means you're not close to the Cubs talent level. But hey, have fun planning for timelines that are absurd to project to. I'm sure the Cubs won't be waiting, still 10+ games better than you with a younger roster and more money to spend and a system that has proven its player development bona fides in multiple cities.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

man, fans of other teams in the division are going to be so pissed when some of our lower level players turn into legit prospects in a year or two.