Starting Pitching candidates

[Cubswin11]

Hmmmmm

 

[David]

Hmmmmm

 

 

have the orioles done any weird horsefeathers with him like force him to change his delivery or stop throwing his best pitch?

[Cubswin11]

Hmmmmm

 

 

have the orioles done any weird horsefeathers with him like force him to change his delivery or stop throwing his best pitch?

Just looking at his pitch f/x stuff on fangraphs it doesn't seem like he's changed much. His velo is at career averages roughly other than he is throwing his slider about 3 MPH faster than his career average. He's added a curveball sparingly (2% of pitches after never throwing one) and is throwing it at the expense of his splitter it looks like (but he still is throwing the split).

Edited June 28, 2017 by Cubswin11

[Thrilho]

Hmmmmm

 

 

 

ooooooomg omg omg

Yeahhhhh now this something I can get behind. 3.5 years of control left. Off the top, I'd pay that Sonny Gray (non-Eloy) haul for him easy.

[Cubswin11]

Not to be a wet blanket, I just looked at the schedule, we play the Orioles the first series after the ASB. Could have just been advanced scouts there to watch him when we face him/them.......

[Brian]

Shouldn't Dan Duquette just hang up the phone when Jed & Theo come sniffing around an underperforming pitcher of his?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

we could give them Arrieta back since that trade wasn't very fair

[Thrilho]

Hmmmmm

 

 

have the orioles done any weird horsefeathers with him like force him to change his delivery or stop throwing his best pitch?

Just looking at his pitch f/x stuff on fangraphs it doesn't seem like he's changed much. His velo is at career averages roughly other than he is throwing his slider about 3 MPH faster than his career average. He's added a curveball sparingly (2% of pitches after never throwing one) and is throwing it at the expense of his splitter it looks like (but he still is throwing the split).

Looks like he picked up a cutter in 2016 that didn't work for him (13% at -8.4 value) for a slider that hadn't worked for him (0% in 2016 to 15% at -6.1 value in 2017). Main difference is going from +6.4 to -7.1 value on the fastball that he's thrown at a very consistent 63%. Like you say though, no drop in fb velocity, at a consistent 95.5ish this year and last.

[Thrilho]

Not to be a wet blanket, I just looked at the schedule, we play the Orioles the first series after the ASB. Could have just been advanced scouts there to watch him when we face him/them.......

True but he's got the comment about Cubs viewing him as TOR. Would be odd if this guy had sources in the FO but you wonder if he'd just make something like that up.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

have the orioles done any weird horsefeathers with him like force him to change his delivery or stop throwing his best pitch?

Just looking at his pitch f/x stuff on fangraphs it doesn't seem like he's changed much. His velo is at career averages roughly other than he is throwing his slider about 3 MPH faster than his career average. He's added a curveball sparingly (2% of pitches after never throwing one) and is throwing it at the expense of his splitter it looks like (but he still is throwing the split).

Looks like he picked up a cutter in 2016 that didn't work for him (13% at -8.4 value) for a slider that hadn't worked for him (0% in 2016 to 15% at -6.1 value in 2017). Main difference is going from +6.4 to -7.1 value on the fastball that he's thrown at a very consistent 63%. Like you say though, no drop in fb velocity, at a consistent 95.5ish this year and last.

 

If you're looking at the Pitch Info Pitch type(the more accurate of the two there), then CU refers to curveball and not cutter. That would also be consistent with the Orioles hating cutters and sliders.

 

Gausman definitely interests me as a buy-low guy, but I'd be a little concerned that the home run spike might be especially bad for him, and also I'm not sure I'd be okay with him as the only acquisition. I really doubt they'd add 2 SPs, so you'd need him to turn it around immediately.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Hmmmmm

 

 

Yes yes yes.

 

Just plug him in the bullpen this year if he's still struggling, with an eye at the 2018 rotation (a la Montgomery last year). He's worthy of Bosio's time, unlike Butler.

[davell]

Few things here that cross my mind.....1) Is this any different than an ABTY report? SportsMockery? Are they even remotely credible? 2) Why would Baltimore deal him to us and run the risk of being even more of a laughingstock, unless the price we'd pay is much higher? 3) I'd love to add him and I'd sell off any two, non-Eloy minor leaguers for him probably. 4) I don't know why, but I'm kind of expecting a cost controlled addition AND a cheap, grizzled veterany type of guy added as well.

[Cubswin11]

#SOS #PleaseSendHelp

[Thrilho]

Just looking at his pitch f/x stuff on fangraphs it doesn't seem like he's changed much. His velo is at career averages roughly other than he is throwing his slider about 3 MPH faster than his career average. He's added a curveball sparingly (2% of pitches after never throwing one) and is throwing it at the expense of his splitter it looks like (but he still is throwing the split).

Looks like he picked up a cutter in 2016 that didn't work for him (13% at -8.4 value) for a slider that hadn't worked for him (0% in 2016 to 15% at -6.1 value in 2017). Main difference is going from +6.4 to -7.1 value on the fastball that he's thrown at a very consistent 63%. Like you say though, no drop in fb velocity, at a consistent 95.5ish this year and last.

 

If you're looking at the Pitch Info Pitch type(the more accurate of the two there), then CU refers to curveball and not cutter. That would also be consistent with the Orioles hating cutters and sliders.

 

Gausman definitely interests me as a buy-low guy, but I'd be a little concerned that the home run spike might be especially bad for him, and also I'm not sure I'd be okay with him as the only acquisition. I really doubt they'd add 2 SPs, so you'd need him to turn it around immediately.

Thanks, swapping shitty curve for shitty slider doesn't seem like much of a thing. Probably a similar pitch thrown a little differently.

 

I've always liked Gausman and like to think that the HRs are partially driven by the band boxes of the AL East and the consistently powerful teams in the division. I don't have numbers on that though.

 

Then I figure the Cubs have done well with some pitchers who aren't throwing strikes, just by having them work on fastball command. Gausman's bad year is largely due to walks and he's been at <=2.45 BB/9 in 3 out of his previous 4 years in the MLB. So figure that's a good bet to bounce back, maybe even after a couple magical tweaks and some refocusing in a pennant race for the WS champs in a horsefeathers division.

 

He's always been a low 40s ground ball guy so that's bad. But I could see that as a relatively neutral thing in the playoffs with the parks in play (October Wrigley, Nats, Dodgers). Maybe it's a definitely bad thing but I'd be willing to hear arguments on the merits of GB pitchers vs strikeout/fly ball pitchers for the Cubs staff going forward.

 

Either way, he's got great stuff, good pedigree, and has been healthy. I may be lending more than I should to his youth and years, while lending less to immediate impact, but I'm seen how quick guys can turn around with this pitching coach and defense. I also like rolling the dice with a buy low guy like Gausman rather than selling off on Eloy or any of the young major leaguers. I think basically all the major league trade assets will continue to build value so I'd rather let that continue to shake out. I could be convinced otherwise but would be real happy if we could just use MiLB pitchers + some of the non-Eloy position prospects.

 

Trying to figure if I should make a Gausman > Gray argument but have to think a little more on that. Either way, I think Gausman would fit the bill well for me if he's the top pitcher they get.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Man, I'm really going to have to trust you guys if we end up giving Eloy in a package for Gausman, who appears to have somehow figured out a way to perhaps be worse than Lackey this year.

 

A 6.07 ERA? A 5.20 FIP? 117 hits allowed in 86 innings and a WHIP that is dangerously close to 2? I acknowledge being a prisoner of the moment on this, but damn.

 

ETA: although now reading posts over again, it doesn't sound like many are advocating or OK with trading our very best guys for him.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Man, I'm really going to have to trust you guys if we end up giving Eloy in a package for Gausman, who appears to have somehow figured out a way to perhaps be worse than Lackey this year.

 

A 6.07 ERA? A 5.20 FIP? 117 hits allowed in 86 innings and a WHIP that is dangerously close to 2? I acknowledge being a prisoner of the moment on this, but damn.

 

ETA: although now reading posts over again, it doesn't sound like many are advocating or OK with trading our very best guys for him.

 

Yup, a big part of the appeal of Gausman is that you'd be able to hang onto all of your top trade chips and get back a guy with upside, youth, pretty clean health history and 4+ years of control.

[davell]

So, here we are, a month from the deadline and everyone but the White Sox, Detroit, and Oakland is within 3 and a half games of the AL WC. And the leader happens to be Minnesota, who damn near no one thinks can hold on.

 

In the NL, the sellers seem to be the Braves, who also are looking to add, the Marlins, Mets, and Philly in the East. In the Central, the Reds are sellers, with the Cardinals evidently looking into it. In the West, you've got the Giants and Padres.....

 

That's a serious lack of sellers. Especially since some of them have very little to sell. The fact its so jumbled, I'd guess that only 1 or 2 of the rest of the AL teams join the sellers. My guesses would be Baltimore and Seattle.

 

That said, I can see lots of teams just standing pat too. Hard to alienate your fan base if you're close, but that doesn't mean they'll be buying either......

 

Taking a look at who WILL be buying for sure.....You've got the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Nats, Cubs, Dodgers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks. The Braves seem intent on trying to add too, while also selling. But, its rare to actually see a team execute that. I can see the Twins and Brewers adding token pieces, due to not competing for a while.....

 

What are these teams looking to add though?

 

Yankees- Starting Pitching seems to be what they're after

Red Sox- A 3B is on their list, as is Starting Pitching or a shutdown reliever

Indians- No idea, I've not heard them connected to anything yet.

Astros- Starting Pitching

Nats- Shutdown reliever, maybe another good pen arm too

Braves- Starting Pitching

Cubs- Starting Pitching

Dodgers- Starting Pitching, maybe a shutdown reliever too

Diamondbacks- Haven't heard anything

Rockies- Starting Pitching

 

If you now look at the sellers, this is what they're likely moving.....

 

Orioles- Wade Miley, maybe Kevin Gausman? Britton, now that he's coming back.....Would they consider moving Machado?

White Sox- Holland, Quintana, Robertson seems a great bet to move.

Detroit- Verlander? Justin Wilson, Alex Avila

A's- Sonny Gray, Sean Doolittle, Jed Lowrie

Seattle- Maybe Nick Vincent and Mark Rzepynski? Hard to find guys they'd move that teams will want.

 

NL Sellers

Braves- Selling off Garcia. Dickey or Colon if they can. Matt Adams too.

Marlins- Maybe Ozuna? They'll move Ramos, Barraclough, David Phelps,cand probably Volquez from their rotation.

Mets- Jay Bruce seems to be a goner. Neil Walker and Granderson too. Addison Reed from the pen. Can't see them moving anyone from their rotation.

Reds- Feldman, Drew Storen out of the pen

Giants- They'll move Nunez. Cueto is iffy because of the contract. Shark seems to be a possibility.

Padres- Clayton Richard, Chacin, Cahill? Any of that group that can be moved. Brad Hand seems likely to be dealt too.

 

So, that's my idea on how things are looking right now. As for the Cubs trying to find a cost controlled starter? It looks like Gray, Verlander, maybe Shark. Quintana will go elsewhere obviously. Unless they go with a Volquez or Miley type, just to fill a rotation spot next year.

 

The Yanks, Dodgers, and Astros seem to be the teams we're competing with, along with the Braves, for these guys....And I'd say the Dodgers and Astros are pretty much in "if not now, then when?" mode.....

 

Hopefully, another team or two decides to sell in the AL, but I don't see it.

[davell]

Double

[Post Count Padder]

The Yankees have also seen Bird, Austin and Holliday hit the DL, with Gleybar done for the year and Headley and Carter underperform badly. I think they're looking for help at the corners. Not sure that means anything for us unless we can convince them to trade us Pineda for Candelario lol.

 

What are the odds of:

 

Seattle: Paxton or Miranda

Philly: Pivetta, Eickhoff, Velesquez, Lively

 

Thinking of guys under control who shouldn't cost as much. Still want to target a Shark or Gray but it wouldn't hurt to add one of these guys too.

[sweetpeteman]

The Yankees have also seen Bird, Austin and Holliday hit the DL, with Gleybar done for the year and Headley and Carter underperform badly. I think they're looking for help at the corners. Not sure that means anything for us unless we can convince them to trade us Pineda for Candelario lol.

 

What are the odds of:

 

Seattle: Paxton or Miranda

Philly: Pivetta, Eickhoff, Velesquez, Lively

 

Thinking of guys under control who shouldn't cost as much. Still want to target a Shark or Gray but it wouldn't hurt to add one of these guys too.

 

The only reason the Yankees move Pineda is if they think they won't be getting him to re-sign, so I doubt they'll move him. I don't know if the Yankees are necessarily buyers, but they won't sell anybody. They make me think of the Cubs in 2015, and will probably trade like that (trading lesser prospects for back-end rotation and bull-pen help, like the Cubs trading for Tommy Hunter and Dan Haren).

[davell]

The Yankees have also seen Bird, Austin and Holliday hit the DL, with Gleybar done for the year and Headley and Carter underperform badly. I think they're looking for help at the corners. Not sure that means anything for us unless we can convince them to trade us Pineda for Candelario lol.

 

What are the odds of:

 

Seattle: Paxton or Miranda

Philly: Pivetta, Eickhoff, Velesquez, Lively

 

Thinking of guys under control who shouldn't cost as much. Still want to target a Shark or Gray but it wouldn't hurt to add one of these guys too.

 

I left Philly out, for some reason, and actually had those guys on my list of guys to target. They need lots of help, it wouldnt be that hard to find matches. Most I would just view as depth for next year though. But, I'd love to address that on some level now.

 

Paxton would be cool and we've been linked to him before. I just don't see them trading him, because they never actually rebuild. I think Miranda is one of those guys that's held up by silly putty. I doubt there's much interest in him.

[UMFan83]

Few things here that cross my mind.....1) Is this any different than an ABTY report? SportsMockery? Are they even remotely credible? 2) Why would Baltimore deal him to us and run the risk of being even more of a laughingstock, unless the price we'd pay is much higher? 3) I'd love to add him and I'd sell off any two, non-Eloy minor leaguers for him probably. 4) I don't know why, but I'm kind of expecting a cost controlled addition AND a cheap, grizzled veterany type of guy added as well.

 

Late on this but absolutely positively do not believe anything from the Sean Sears guy. Based on following his "reports" from the last year or so I am 100% convinced that he has no sources and makes things up. I cannot think of any specific examples at the moment but he's reported things that have been hilariously wrong and things that were obviously wrong even when he reported them. He's also big on tweeting "My sources are telling me the same thing" when legit reporters report something.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Anybody on board with flipping Wade for a tinstapp yet

[Thrilho]

Anybody on board with flipping Wade for a tinstapp yet

No sir. I want an extension. Leave the blown saves for Nats.

[davell]

Anybody on board with flipping Wade for a tinstapp yet

 

If this was a computer sim game, then absolutely. But, its not. Selling off your closer is going to piss off everyone on the major league team. They deserve their leniency, after last year. You can't sell off a major piece for a team that's a game out of the division lead. It'd just send the wrong message to the players.