Cubs trading Soler to KC for Wade Davis

[MarkR]

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I agree with the sentiment, but the idea is that if Soler ever puts it together, he's still locked up for a good bit of time at a very reasonable cost. But he'll never recognize his potential here due to opportunity. He had his chance and that ship has sailed. Great idea to sell him now because there's not going to be an opportunity to improve his value.

[MarkR]

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Not as hard to find when there are at least a couple of them available as free agents currently though.

 

Would you be willing to bring back Chapman at 90 million over 5 years? Jansen around that value too?

 

History shows that doesn't work.

[Old Style]

I love this deal. :clapping:

[Elrhino]

I would rather allocate $90 million towards an Arrieta extension than Jansen or Aroldis.

[Banedon]

Would you be willing to bring back Chapman at 90 million over 5 years?

 

No...but not because of the money, but because of him being a horrible person.

 

Jansen around that value too?

 

Yes.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

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Not as hard to find when there are at least a couple of them available as free agents currently though.

 

Would you be willing to bring back Chapman at 90 million over 5 years? Jansen around that value too?

 

Yes.

[David]

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Not as hard to find when there are at least a couple of them available as free agents currently though.

 

Would you be willing to bring back Chapman at 90 million over 5 years? Jansen around that value too?

 

History shows that doesn't work.

 

What history? Elite relievers like that are few and far between and today's MLB economy is unlike it's ever been.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

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Not as hard to find when there are at least a couple of them available as free agents currently though.

 

i would also say a pitcher that only pitches 40 innings last year shouldn't be considered reliable.

[David]

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Not as hard to find when there are at least a couple of them available as free agents currently though.

 

Not to nitpick, but spending lots and lots of money also fits the bill of "hard to find."

 

Not that I wouldn't spend it too, but a lot of times people talk about FAs like money isn't an asset as well.

[David]

If Davis is healthy, I'm happy enough with this. Now I kind of want to sign Holland, also, to have 2/3 of the pen that got KC to the world series.

 

If this gets done, its time to sign Kenley and just throw poop at the rest of the league.

 

I wish, but that's so not what is gonna happen.

 

We're just gonna pocket the new money and see what we can buy next year or the year after.

[Banedon]

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Not as hard to find when there are at least a couple of them available as free agents currently though.

 

Not to nitpick, but spending lots and lots of money also fits the bill of "hard to find."

 

Not that I wouldn't spend it too, but a lot of times people talk about FAs like money isn't an asset as well.

 

Money is a lot "harder to find" for some clubs than others though, and for the Cubs, especially coming off of a WS win, it shouldn't be hard to find at all.

[jehr]

I'm okay with this. Not crazy about it, but okay.

 

At the end of the day, it's impossible to tell when Soler's value would peak until that peak has passed. Davis fills a need with an elite ability. This time next year, we'll likely grade this trade based on Davis's health. We know for a fact that the front office is aware of the history concerns, and are read in on the same predictors and trends for forearm / elbow injuries. They also have the best docs money can buy evaluating the medicals before making this call. I'm cautiously optimistic that it's reasonable to assume they feel confident that he has a reasonable likelihood of making it through the year healthy. At least as far as any pitcher can be assumed...there's always that increased risk with pitchers because they're pitchers and their arms frequently fall off.

 

KC will valuate the trade based on Soler's health and continued growth. My frustrations are more with the fact that he is still represents unrealized potential moreso than the fact that we just traded him. Even if he learns to hit like Stanton, would he ever be that guy who could stay on the field? Best case to me seems like he would evolve into that player that gets paid for his incredible talent but never gives you the approximate value in return due to not staying on the field. I could be wrong.

[KingCubsFan]

I would rather allocate $90 million towards an Arrieta extension than Jansen or Aroldis.

I'd prefer a few years of Otani.

[David]

 

Not as hard to find when there are at least a couple of them available as free agents currently though.

 

Not to nitpick, but spending lots and lots of money also fits the bill of "hard to find."

 

Not that I wouldn't spend it too, but a lot of times people talk about FAs like money isn't an asset as well.

 

Money is a lot "harder to find" for some clubs than others though, and for the Cubs, especially coming off of a WS win, it shouldn't be hard to find at all.

 

And the same would remain true when trying to replace Soler's future value. The money will be there. It's not like FA is some magic bullet compared to trades. It's all just value being moved around.

 

This is coming from someone who isn't ecstatic about moving Soler for an injured very good closer.

[davell]

If Davis is healthy, I'm happy enough with this. Now I kind of want to sign Holland, also, to have 2/3 of the pen that got KC to the world series.

 

If this gets done, its time to sign Kenley and just throw poop at the rest of the league.

 

I wish, but that's so not what is gonna happen.

 

We're just gonna pocket the new money and see what we can buy next year or the year after.

 

Obviously, they won't. But it'd be great to see them over buy once. Then trade from a strength. You could sign Kenley and trade Strop and/or Rondon(even with minimal return) Adding Davis and Kenley only costs us 12-13 mill total from starting point.

 

Its not how we operate, but it'd be awesome to see.

[imb]

If they are really after Otani or Harper, this is the right move. I have loved Jansen for years but $90-$100 million for a closer just sounds like something you look back on and go "oh yeah that was dumb." Part of the reason we won so many games last year was because our SP was awesome, and this is likely the last year or Arrieta, so it makes sense to me to not to go into the season with a questionable pen.

[David]

If they are really after Otani or Harper, this is the right move. I have loved Jansen for years but $90-$100 million for a closer just sounds like something you look back on and go "oh yeah that was dumb." Part of the reason we won so many games last year was because our SP was awesome, and this is likely the last year or Arrieta, so it makes sense to me to not to go into the season with a questionable pen.

 

Otani is so far off in the future now that it's not even worth thinking about right now. What is it, 2019?

[Fro]

 

Not to nitpick, but spending lots and lots of money also fits the bill of "hard to find."

 

Not that I wouldn't spend it too, but a lot of times people talk about FAs like money isn't an asset as well.

 

Money is a lot "harder to find" for some clubs than others though, and for the Cubs, especially coming off of a WS win, it shouldn't be hard to find at all.

 

And the same would remain true when trying to replace Soler's future value. The money will be there. It's not like FA is some magic bullet compared to trades. It's all just value being moved around.

 

This is coming from someone who isn't ecstatic about moving Soler for an injured very good closer.

 

Unfortunately we can't play Schwarber, Soler, Heyward, Eloy Jimenez, and Almora all at once in the outfield, so we won't be able to get full value out of Soler barring injuries/implosion of folks that open up enough PT for Soler to be a regular. We're in a different spot now than just trying to maximize our assets under control. That's important but if we can do stuff to make the team significantly better you may have to make moves like this even if Soler for 4 years ends up more WAR than you get from Davis in one year.

[David]

Holy horsefeathering horsefeathers...how is Darvish 30 already?! I feel so old.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

If this gets done, its time to sign Kenley and just throw poop at the rest of the league.

 

I wish, but that's so not what is gonna happen.

 

We're just gonna pocket the new money and see what we can buy next year or the year after.

 

Obviously, they won't. But it'd be great to see them over buy once. Then trade from a strength. You could sign Kenley and trade Strop and/or Rondon(even with minimal return) Adding Davis and Kenley only costs us 12-13 mill total from starting point.

 

Its not how we operate, but it'd be awesome to see.

 

It's kinda how we made the Zobrist move. I could see it. And I'd love to see it.

 

Really, all that I've wanted is Jansen. I'm fine with this move by itself. I'd rather just sign Jansen, but whatever.

[CubsWin]

If they are really after Otani or Harper, this is the right move. I have loved Jansen for years but $90-$100 million for a closer just sounds like something you look back on and go "oh yeah that was dumb." Part of the reason we won so many games last year was because our SP was awesome, and this is likely the last year or Arrieta, so it makes sense to me to not to go into the season with a questionable pen.

 

Otani is so far off in the future now that it's not even worth thinking about right now. What is it, 2019?

Jeff Passan has been making noise that it could be as early as after the 2017 season.

[David]

If they are really after Otani or Harper, this is the right move. I have loved Jansen for years but $90-$100 million for a closer just sounds like something you look back on and go "oh yeah that was dumb." Part of the reason we won so many games last year was because our SP was awesome, and this is likely the last year or Arrieta, so it makes sense to me to not to go into the season with a questionable pen.

 

Otani is so far off in the future now that it's not even worth thinking about right now. What is it, 2019?

Jeff Passan has been making noise that it could be as early as after the 2017 season.

 

Rosenthal since refuted that.

 

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[rocket]

beautiful

 

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[BigbadB]

40 innings is probably all we will need from Davis during the regular season. This offense is getting pretty good at playing "Screw The Closer".

 

I like this trade. One season of Davis might be the perfect bridge to Edwards. Maybe he is over his health problems and they can get him signed to an extension that is cheaper than what Jansen or Chapman would have commanded. Maybe Theo has his eye on a few guys that will become available next year. I really like Davis. Wish there were more years left on that contract, but this move puts them just a few more arms away from calling it an offseason.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If they are really after Otani or Harper, this is the right move. I have loved Jansen for years but $90-$100 million for a closer just sounds like something you look back on and go "oh yeah that was dumb." Part of the reason we won so many games last year was because our SP was awesome, and this is likely the last year or Arrieta, so it makes sense to me to not to go into the season with a questionable pen.

 

I think there's some logic there, but to get to that point requires some pessimism about their current level of spending.

 

2016: 170 million payroll upped to 180 midseason

2017: By adding Davis and subtracting Soler, they're basically at 160 with a full roster only needing a SP to bump Zastryzny off and Montgomery to the bullpen. They also added 300k fans and won a world series

2018: 63 million in FA departures, including 2 SP, Strop, and a bunch of lesser parts(Jay, Duensing, Montero). Bryant and Russell hit arbitration. Otani maybe available but current news says no.

2019: Only Rondon leaves in FA, Schwarber, Baez, and Montgomery hit arbitration, Harper, Machado, maybe Otani available

2020: New TV Deal, Zobrist and Grimm FAs, Otani definitely available

 

In other words, with the world series win and uptick in attendance, there should be some payroll growth that you can probably set aside to make sure the core's pre-FA increases are taken care of. That might get a little tricky in 2019 but that's also 3 years from now, who knows what the roster will look like. If you make that assumption, then you've got lots of cash and basically only 2 rotation spots to fill(and I guess CF if Almora fails), along with ensuring the bullpen is strong.