The Bryce is Right, Bitch

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We didn't really know about the Lester/Heyward/Ohtani pitches they did until after the fact.

 

This isn’t even a little bit true for Lester or Ohtani

[Tim]

 

Every single time they’ve wanted a player, they’ve gone over the top making a pitch to him. They’ve never once played hard to get, because that would be dumb.

How many of those players had waged a multi-year hint campaign that they really, really wanted to be a Cub? How many of them were positioned to get the largest contract in sports history?

 

None of them fit the special category you made up ad hoc to special plead this case, correct

But it is true for Harper. So it may be a different situation, eh?

[Cubswin11]

And they didn't hand him a blank check, and I'm pretty sure they didn't even offer him the biggest contract.

 

They also didn’t tell everyone they couldn’t afford him.

 

The Otani courting was also very public as it happened

There definitely was the talk on not going to certain prices on Lester and they were hesistant. Ohtani was public because that was the nature of a FA posting period like that. It was hard to fake interest in him last year.

[David]

And they didn't hand him a blank check, and I'm pretty sure they didn't even offer him the biggest contract.

 

They also didn’t tell everyone they couldn’t afford him.

 

The Otani courting was also very public as it happened

 

Even though I'm not even sure that's true (at least, being made so from the Cubs side of things), there was just about nothing to negotiate with Ohtani because teams could either pay him nothing or a little more than nothing.

[Brian]

We didn't really know about the Lester/Heyward/Ohtani pitches they did until after the fact.

 

This isn’t even a little bit true for Lester or Ohtani

 

we didn't know the details is what I'm saying. If we are selectively believing reports, I'm pretty sure their are non cat sources that have said the Cubs met with Harper.

[Tim]

And they didn't hand him a blank check, and I'm pretty sure they didn't even offer him the biggest contract.

 

They also didn’t tell everyone they couldn’t afford him.

 

The Otani courting was also very public as it happened

The Ohtani thing was *very* different out of necessity, driven by the posting process at the time.

[jersey cubs fan]

Meh, I'm still not putting much stock in all the media reports.

 

If Harper wants to be here (and it certainly seems that he does), it makes a lot of sense for the front office to act poor and hope he'll lower his demands to make it work.

 

I refuse to get outraged when everybody is doing exactly what I'd expect them to do. I'll wait and hold my outrage until he signs elsewhere.

 

Every single time they’ve wanted a player, they’ve gone over the top making a pitch to him. They’ve never once played hard to get, because that would be dumb.

Why can’t it be they are making an over the top pitch while also playing it down publicly? We never really knew of the Lester and Heyward interest until it got close and after the fact about how they pitched it. It’s not like Theo took out a front page ad in the tribune the day after the season ended to woo those guys, everything was secretive then too and our interest was played down.

why do I feel like people just keep making up "we never knew they were interested in X" stories?

[David]

The Lester thing was treated with a lot of skepticism, IIRC, because the Cubs were still terrible and it was a lot of money.

 

The Heyward thing was treated with skepticism because people didn't think they would go out and make a huge signing two years in a row, IIRC.

 

The Tanaka thing was treated with a ton of skepticism because of the rebuild "they're not gonna spend big on this guy when they're 8 million years away blah blah"

 

But there were obviously rumors about all of them. It wasn't completely out of nowhere.

[The_Achiever]

I think the reason the Cubs are being so coy/dismissive/pessimistic/inconsistent in public is to manage expectations and also kinda keep the heat off Bryce to make a decision before he's ready.

 

I just don't believe that they don't want him and are trying to make it work. I think it's either Cubs or Dodgers at this point.

[Cubswin11]

 

Every single time they’ve wanted a player, they’ve gone over the top making a pitch to him. They’ve never once played hard to get, because that would be dumb.

Why can’t it be they are making an over the top pitch while also playing it down publicly? We never really knew of the Lester and Heyward interest until it got close and after the fact about how they pitched it. It’s not like Theo took out a front page ad in the tribune the day after the season ended to woo those guys, everything was secretive then too and our interest was played down.

why do I feel like people just keep making up "we never knew they were interested in X" stories?

There were rumors we could or would be interested and on here we all thought a lot of the guys that we ended up signing made a lot of sense going in to an offseason. But our interest always seemed to be downplayed and we would be listed with a group of ~6 other teams in on guys but there were always qualifiers that kept us maybe out on guys.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

Every single time they’ve wanted a player, they’ve gone over the top making a pitch to him. They’ve never once played hard to get, because that would be dumb.

Why can’t it be they are making an over the top pitch while also playing it down publicly? We never really knew of the Lester and Heyward interest until it got close and after the fact about how they pitched it. It’s not like Theo took out a front page ad in the tribune the day after the season ended to woo those guys, everything was secretive then too and our interest was played down.

why do I feel like people just keep making up "we never knew they were interested in X" stories?

 

The whole “Theo never leaks” mythos has been ridiculous from the beginning but it has become especially popular this offseason.

[Rob]

Their interest in Lester was wide-open and public so long before he hit FA that it was basically tampering

 

The Lester thing is clearly different.

 

The Cubs were coming off a 73-89 season and had almost no big-league talent. This was not an organization that people were going to want to come to for reasons other than money. So we advertised the money. Now we have a team that good players want to be a part of, so our pitch can lean a bit more heavily on those things.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How many of those players had waged a multi-year hint campaign that they really, really wanted to be a Cub? How many of them were positioned to get the largest contract in sports history?

 

None of them fit the special category you made up ad hoc to special plead this case, correct

But it is true for Harper. So it may be a different situation, eh?

 

This is heavily motivated reasoning

[UMFan83]

ehh horsefeathers it I'm posting it

 

[CubinNY]

Obviously, no one except Theo and his team, Boras and his team, and Harper know what's really happening. But I don't get the, "if Harper wants to come to the Cubs, he will." He will not come if the Cubs make a substandard offer. This is giving me PTSD to the Hendry/Tribune Cubs when they were happy they made a "competitive" offer.

 

Carlos Beltran could have been a difference maker on the Cubs, but Hendry was happy with the offer the Cubs made even though it was significantly less than what he signed for.

 

I hope they get Harper, so whatever, obviously.

[Cubswin11]

ehh horsefeathers it I'm posting it

 

Get WetButt on the line!

 

I wonder if “trading future dollars” means more they don’t want to or “can’t” pay him $35-40 mil+ this year and with all the money coming off the next 2 years they want to pay him more like $20 mil this year and jump it starting in 2 years but Bryce/Boras want more in the first year or two and “trading future dollars” doesn’t necessarily mean having to trade money off this year (like yes I’m sure they’d be more than happy to dump Kintzler or Chatwood) but it’s more in relation to his deal and how they want it structured?

Edited December 11, 2018 by Cubswin11

[UMFan83]

Also FWIW that same Reddit handle I posted above made this post the day before the Darvish signing news broke:

 

[David]

I feel like there's also a reason even the most pessimistic local reports refuse to completely slam the door on it by couching what they say with stuff like "as of right now" or "if they move money" and whatever else they've used.

[Tim]

 

None of them fit the special category you made up ad hoc to special plead this case, correct

But it is true for Harper. So it may be a different situation, eh?

 

This is heavily motivated reasoning

All I've said is that the situations are very different from past pursuits and that may drive different negotiating behavior. I am *not* saying that this behavior means they are definitely pursuing Harper. What I *am* saying is that you cannot extrapolate from their behavior with other free agents in this situation.

 

In other words, I'm more denying your logic than supporting Rob's.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I wonder if “trading future dollars” means more they don’t want to or “can’t” pay him $35-40 mil+ this year and with all the money coming off the next 2 years they want to pay him more like $20 mil this year and jump it starting in 2 years but Bryce/Boras want more in the first year or two and “trading future dollars” doesn’t necessarily mean having to trade money off this year (like yes I’m sure they’d be more than happy to dump Kintzler or Chatwood) but it’s more in relation to his deal and how they want it structured?

 

That makes a lot more sense than picking up Hamels option and then realizing they don't have any money left in the bank without dumping salary. I haven't double checked how tight 2020 might be recently to know exactly how likely that outcome is though.

[Cubswin11]

I wonder if “trading future dollars” means more they don’t want to or “can’t” pay him $35-40 mil+ this year and with all the money coming off the next 2 years they want to pay him more like $20 mil this year and jump it starting in 2 years but Bryce/Boras want more in the first year or two and “trading future dollars” doesn’t necessarily mean having to trade money off this year (like yes I’m sure they’d be more than happy to dump Kintzler or Chatwood) but it’s more in relation to his deal and how they want it structured?

 

That makes a lot more sense than picking up Hamels option and then realizing they don't have any money left in the bank without dumping salary. I haven't double checked how tight 2020 might be recently to know exactly how likely that outcome is though.

Spotrac has us at 115 committed for next year, pre-arb (so maybe ~$165 after arbitration?) and 60 committed for 21’ pre-arb.

 

Edit: forgot Rizzo and Q have options for next year which wouldn’t be committed money. So we are probably at ~$200 mil after arb and all options exercised + guaranteed contracts.

Edited December 11, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Tim]

I wonder if “trading future dollars” means more they don’t want to or “can’t” pay him $35-40 mil+ this year and with all the money coming off the next 2 years they want to pay him more like $20 mil this year and jump it starting in 2 years but Bryce/Boras want more in the first year or two and “trading future dollars” doesn’t necessarily mean having to trade money off this year (like yes I’m sure they’d be more than happy to dump Kintzler or Chatwood) but it’s more in relation to his deal and how they want it structured?

 

That makes a lot more sense than picking up Hamels option and then realizing they don't have any money left in the bank without dumping salary. I haven't double checked how tight 2020 might be recently to know exactly how likely that outcome is though.

Spotrac has us at 115 committed for next year, pre-arb (so maybe ~$165 after arbitration?) and 60 committed for 21’ pre-arb.

I've posted it before, but I like using these guys for their projections:

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-chicago-cubs-info/

[Derwood]

Can someone explain why “The Cubs are interested “ always has the caveat of “but they would need to get creative”, while “The Dodgers are interested” has no such caveats? Don’t they have a ton of OF’s and a similarly high salary situation?

[Hunter]

Can someone explain why “The Cubs are interested “ always has the caveat of “but they would need to get creative”, while “The Dodgers are interested” has no such caveats? Don’t they have a ton of OF’s and a similarly high salary situation?

 

Dodgers also going in to 3rd year being over cap. Articles during season were about how they had to get under cap for 19.

[Cubswin11]

Can someone explain why “The Cubs are interested “ always has the caveat of “but they would need to get creative”, while “The Dodgers are interested” has no such caveats? Don’t they have a ton of OF’s and a similarly high salary situation?

I’ve seen a decent amount of articles about how Puig, Pederson, Kemp and Verdugo are being shopped. Also plenty of articles saying they’re a little skeptical how much they’re in on Harper because they don’t like big FA deal (or at least Friedman and the FO don’t).

Edited December 11, 2018 by Cubswin11