The Bryce is Right, Bitch

[Derwood]

I’m going to say the commissioners office may have something to say about a 25 year deal

[DonnieD]

Then make it 23 years instead of 25. I’m not sure the commissioner’s office would be able to tell one of the game’s biggest stars he’s not allowed to play until he is the same age that Julio Franco, Jamie Moyer, Bartolo Colon, and several other people have played to.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

We also can't rule out Theo pulling his magic and getting Harper for closer to $30-35 in aav than the $40-50 aav that some seem to think he's going to get.

 

Bryce =/= Yu

[champaignchris]

With all their other free agents and Zimmerman, Strasburg and Scherzer combining to make about $95M, will the Nats be able to sign Harper for $40+M per year and put a WS caliber team around him? I’m sure he doesn’t want to be National League Mike Trout.

[jersey cubs fan]

With all their other free agents and Zimmerman, Strasburg and Scherzer combining to make about $95M, will the Nats be able to sign Harper for $40+M per year and put a WS caliber team around him? I’m sure he doesn’t want to be National League Mike Trout.

That won't be an issue

[toonsterwu]

With all their other free agents and Zimmerman, Strasburg and Scherzer combining to make about $95M, will the Nats be able to sign Harper for $40+M per year and put a WS caliber team around him? I’m sure he doesn’t want to be National League Mike Trout.

 

Yes. The reason is this - they have an excellent system despite all their young MLB talent.

 

Actually, if there's any team that could afford to somewhat let go of Bryce Harper, it might be the Nationals. Victor Robles looks like, barring a physical setback, a legitimate top talent who has 5 tools. Juan Soto might be the best young offensive talent in the entire minors ... including perhaps Ronald Acuna and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. If he's not, then he's in the conversation. Even if those two graduate, a system with Carter Kieboom (a possible top 50 prospect next year), Will Crowe, Erick Fedde is a decent start, along with whatever they add in this year's draft (and one of my favorite boom/bust sleepers in the minors - Daniel Johnson ... although I tend to think he might end up more as a 4th OF, not enough hit tool to be a regular, but offers enough offensive/defensive ability to find a role).

 

It'd have to be a staggered deal with deferrals, and there would definitely be opt outs, but they could do it. Daniel Murphy's contract is coming up, Ryan Zimmerman ends after 2019, Gonzalez/Wieters/Madson/Kelley are all finishing up. Any team signing Bryce will need to be creative, but yes, on paper, the Nationals can do it (and the Angels, with Ohtani, and an improving system, look like a team that could contend while Trout is still in his prime, a big surprise compared to recent past). They could trade Eaton to clear more short term salary space if needed, and Carter Kieboom might be ready for 2nd base by 2019 (more likely late 2019, but they might not need to spend big on the spot).

 

Heck, if I'm being fair ... I'm not so sure the Cubs future is necessarily better than the Nationals. I really love Soto, and a core of Soto/Robles/Turner/Rendon plus Scherzer/Strasburg in the short term, and an ownership that you know will spend ... is very, very tantalizing. Sure, KB/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber top that, but I'm not so sure it's by all that much. There's more offense with the Cubs (Although how much more depends on how big a believer one is in Soto/Robles, and I am). Nationals defensive core looks better, but they are in a tougher division for the future.

 

____

[Bull]

Heck, if I'm being fair ... I'm not so sure the Cubs future is necessarily better than the Nationals. I really love Soto, and a core of Soto/Robles/Turner/Rendon plus Scherzer/Strasburg in the short term, and an ownership that you know will spend ... is very, very tantalizing. Sure, KB/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber top that, but I'm not so sure it's by all that much. There's more offense with the Cubs (Although how much more depends on how big a believer one is in Soto/Robles, and I am). Nationals defensive core looks better, but they are in a tougher division for the future.

 

____

 

I agree with most everything you’ve said. The thing is the Cubs go sooo deep. The fact that you went KB/Rizzo/Wily/Schwarber but could have gone KB/Rizzo/Javy/Russell or Happ or Almora and made your point just as well is what tells the tale for me.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Heck, if I'm being fair ... I'm not so sure the Cubs future is necessarily better than the Nationals. I really love Soto, and a core of Soto/Robles/Turner/Rendon plus Scherzer/Strasburg in the short term, and an ownership that you know will spend ... is very, very tantalizing. Sure, KB/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber top that, but I'm not so sure it's by all that much.

 

On any timeline that would be relevant to Bryce Harper, that Cubs core is significantly better. Soto and Robles have a combined 235 PA above A-ball, the odds of them outproducing Contreras/Schwarber before 2021 are not high, and the odds of them bridging the huge quality gap between Bryzzo and Rendon/Turner are lower than that. And then you’ve also got the fact that the Cubs have 4 other former Top-50 prospects as position player depth compared to...the hope that Michael Taylor finds his AA form somehow and [file not found].

[philosophizer75]

Heck, if I'm being fair ... I'm not so sure the Cubs future is necessarily better than the Nationals. I really love Soto, and a core of Soto/Robles/Turner/Rendon plus Scherzer/Strasburg in the short term, and an ownership that you know will spend ... is very, very tantalizing. Sure, KB/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber top that, but I'm not so sure it's by all that much.

 

On any timeline that would be relevant to Bryce Harper, that Cubs core is significantly better. Soto and Robles have a combined 235 PA above A-ball, the odds of them outproducing Contreras/Schwarber before 2021 are not high, and the odds of them bridging the huge quality gap between Bryzzo and Rendon/Turner are lower than that. And then you’ve also got the fact that the Cubs have 4 other former Top-50 prospects as position player depth compared to...the hope that Michael Taylor finds his AA form somehow and [file not found].

 

Hey, thats Michael A. Tater, don't ya know?

 

I live in Maryland and god how I hate hearing the National fans and announcers be proud of that nickname every time he runs into one.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

honest question that I’ve never really known the answer to. is toonster a Nats fan? An orioles fan? or a cubs fan? I wanna say cubs, but most of his posts seem to be through beltway colored glasses.

 

I don’t follow the Nats closely, but I can’t really get behind the idea that the “Nationals defensive core looks better” than the team with Russell, Javy, Bryant, Rizzo, Heyward, Almora and the best defensive player in baseball.

[toonsterwu]

Heck, if I'm being fair ... I'm not so sure the Cubs future is necessarily better than the Nationals. I really love Soto, and a core of Soto/Robles/Turner/Rendon plus Scherzer/Strasburg in the short term, and an ownership that you know will spend ... is very, very tantalizing. Sure, KB/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber top that, but I'm not so sure it's by all that much. There's more offense with the Cubs (Although how much more depends on how big a believer one is in Soto/Robles, and I am). Nationals defensive core looks better, but they are in a tougher division for the future.

 

____

 

I agree with most everything you’ve said. The thing is the Cubs go sooo deep. The fact that you went KB/Rizzo/Wily/Schwarber but could have gone KB/Rizzo/Javy/Russell or Happ or Almora and made your point just as well is what tells the tale for me.

 

I don't particularly view Javy/Russell as core players. That may be harsh, but I think push comes to shove when it comes time to offer extensions, those guys are definitely, as of right now, a step below. Happ/Almora are another notch below those two for me, although Almora may deserve to be on the same plane as Russell/Javy.

 

That's me, though.

[Cubswin11]

Russell is 7 months younger and has put up more WAR than Turner in their careers

[toonsterwu]

Heck, if I'm being fair ... I'm not so sure the Cubs future is necessarily better than the Nationals. I really love Soto, and a core of Soto/Robles/Turner/Rendon plus Scherzer/Strasburg in the short term, and an ownership that you know will spend ... is very, very tantalizing. Sure, KB/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber top that, but I'm not so sure it's by all that much.

 

On any timeline that would be relevant to Bryce Harper, that Cubs core is significantly better. Soto and Robles have a combined 235 PA above A-ball, the odds of them outproducing Contreras/Schwarber before 2021 are not high, and the odds of them bridging the huge quality gap between Bryzzo and Rendon/Turner are lower than that. And then you’ve also got the fact that the Cubs have 4 other former Top-50 prospects as position player depth compared to...the hope that Michael Taylor finds his AA form somehow and [file not found].

 

Leaving aside all else and focusing on just timeline/talent/ability to win ...

 

Elite offensive prospects tend to perform. I forget what the study was, and you would probably know better than I do off the top as I haven't followed as much baseball the past year and half. The super-elite offensive talent tend to perform, and Juan Soto is up there. It's not impossible that they flame out ... nothing is, with prospects, but so far, there aren't any apparent holes, a la Brandon Wood.

 

The top end comparisons aren't that far off - I'm too lazy to dig through the numbers right now, but my guess is that the WAR's over the last 2 years for Strasburg/Scherzer/Rendon/Turner vs. Rizzo/Contreras/Bryant/? isn't that far. There is the x-factor of Yu Darvish. All that said, I'm not denying that the Cubs core is better. What that evaluation does leave off is the assumption that somehow the Cubs will maintain it's group, while the Nationals won't add. I mean, there was some chatter that the Nationals may try to keep Daniel Murphy and eventually slide him to 1st base. If his bat holds, that changes the complexion of things. They could very well go out and make a splash, which I expect them to do in regards to SP.

In the end, how good a team is and how ready they are to win in the short term and compete in the long term is likely only a small facet in his decision. Nonetheless, for all the talk about the Phillies and other clubs, I just don't get why people here are overlooking the Nationals ability to keep him around, particularly when factoring in the Lerner's relationship with Boras and Harper's noted affinity for the DC area.

[toonsterwu]

Russell is 7 months younger and has put up more WAR than Turner in their careers

 

That's fine. I don't view Russell as a part of the young core for the Cubs that won't be moved. I do think Turner is viewed as a part of the young core for the Nationals. I'm not talking about their talent. Russell has the potential to be on another level if he puts the offense together.

[Cubswin11]

Russell is 7 months younger and has put up more WAR than Turner in their careers

 

That's fine. I don't view Russell as a part of the young core for the Cubs that won't be moved. I do think Turner is viewed as a part of the young core for the Nationals. I'm not talking about their talent. Russell has the potential to be on another level if he puts the offense together.

This makes no sense to me but to each their own. I think everything the team has done through their actions and words has indicated he’s part of this core.

[toonsterwu]

honest question that I’ve never really known the answer to. is toonster a Nats fan? An orioles fan? or a cubs fan? I wanna say cubs, but most of his posts seem to be through beltway colored glasses.

 

I don’t follow the Nats closely, but I can’t really get behind the idea that the “Nationals defensive core looks better” than the team with Russell, Javy, Bryant, Rizzo, Heyward, Almora and the best defensive player in baseball.

 

I'm a lifelong Cubs fan who grew up in the DC area. I just try not to let my Cubs fandom color things. It seems like I'm tilting heavy on the Nationals here, but that's because I'm mighty perplexed at the opinion that seems to have developed in this thread that somehow the Nationals aren't a strong threat to maintain him. I mean, there were comments about the Phillies being a stronger threat, when the Nationals young core is arguably more talented than the Phillies, as much as that's overlooked, regardless of whether or not they keep Harper.

 

I do admit to liking Mike Rizzo. Early on, it seemed like he got the benefit of a lot of top picks, but he's maintained that system through the years. That system has never really let up, and has never really fallen to shambles. I mean, as noted, assuming a super-elite offensive talent like Juan Soto graduates ... they still have a pretty decent group to start with, the IFA's from a year ago to hope on, and a draft.

 

I would argue that a Nationals defensive future with Turner at SS, Robles in CF, Rendon at 3rd is a notch better. It's debatable, but I think Turner will settle into being a top notch defensive shortstop, Robles has all the worlds tools, and Rendon is an elite defensive 3rd baseman. I can see the argument the other way ... the Nationals future at 2nd is a bit unknown and Baez is obviously a top notch defender at 2nd. I was looking more at young core's, so I didn't factor in Jason Heyward in RF.

 

Edit: Tbh, I'm a bit baffled by this contention that I'm not a Cubs fan. I've spoken highly of Taylor Widener before. Does that make me a Diamondbacks fan? I've said for several years that I thought the Rockies had one of the elite systems in the game. Does that make me a Rockies fan? I guess I'm a bit partial to Baltimore and Washington D.C., having grown up here, but I only post on one sports site.

Edited May 21, 2018 by toonsterwu

[toonsterwu]

Russell is 7 months younger and has put up more WAR than Turner in their careers

 

That's fine. I don't view Russell as a part of the young core for the Cubs that won't be moved. I do think Turner is viewed as a part of the young core for the Nationals. I'm not talking about their talent. Russell has the potential to be on another level if he puts the offense together.

This makes no sense to me but to each their own. I think everything the team has done through their actions and words has indicated he’s part of this core.

 

Ok. Again, it's not a comment on on talent or ability, or current production.

 

I don't think the Nationals would in any way consider any move of Trea Turner, unless it's a "you'd be dumb to move him". I think, when they start thinking about extensions, assuming he produces, Turner is near the top of the list for the Nationals.

 

I don't think the Cubs are looking to move Russell, but I think they'd listen and I also don't think Russell is at the top of the list for extensions. I think Bryant/Contreras top that list. I can see an argument to put Russell ahead of Schwarber, and thus in that group, but I think there's two guys on the Cubs that will be prioritized first, and that Willson and Kris.

 

But that's me.

[Cubswin11]

So you can only be considered part of a young core if you’re an extension candidate? They have Russell through like 2022, that’s plenty of time to be part of a core. It’s not like he’s a free agent in a year. And yeah I’d hope the best player in the NL and the guy who’s going to be a 4-5 WAR catcher are ahead of him in the extension pecking order since Russell hasn’t put it all together yet (even though I’m a big fan).

 

I also doubt Kris ever entertains an extension offer and I’m pretty dubious that Russell is really all that available and think his rumored availability are baseless rumors by idiot writers.

[toonsterwu]

So you can only be considered part of a young core if you’re an extension candidate? They have Russell through like 2022, that’s plenty of time to be part of a core. It’s not like he’s a free agent in a year. And yeah I’d hope the best player in the NL and the guy who’s going to be a 4-5 WAR catcher are ahead of him in the extension pecking order since Russell hasn’t put it all together yet (even though I’m a big fan).

 

I also doubt Kris ever entertains an extension offer and I’m pretty dubious that Russell is really all that available and think his rumored availability are baseless rumors by idiot writers.

 

Fair enough. I don't disagree with anything. To be clear, I say extensions, and i simply mean long term deals.

 

The honest prism that I was looking through is this - if you are signing KB down in a couple years, Contreras, and going after Harper, moves are going to be made elsewhere. With the arb numbers at SS being what they are, it just strikes me as a possibility that the Cubs are going to move Russell moreso than some of the non-KB/Contreras grouping. He's the one that might also bring the most in return.

 

Now, there's other ways about it. Perhaps someone takes that Heyward deal. There's other possibilities to move money around, but until Ricketts gives any indication that he'll blow things up with payroll or that he's willing to go down the Lerner's road with some "creative" contracts, the assumption has to be that some pieces will be moved sooner than later. Again, that's me, though. To be clear, it's not like I think the Cubs will move all of the people below Willy and KB if they get Harper. Some would stay, obviously, but I think they are all in that unknown land until decisions are made.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

honest question that I’ve never really known the answer to. is toonster a Nats fan? An orioles fan? or a cubs fan? I wanna say cubs, but most of his posts seem to be through beltway colored glasses.

 

I don’t follow the Nats closely, but I can’t really get behind the idea that the “Nationals defensive core looks better” than the team with Russell, Javy, Bryant, Rizzo, Heyward, Almora and the best defensive player in baseball.

 

I'm a lifelong Cubs fan who grew up in the DC area. I just try not to let my Cubs fandom color things. It seems like I'm tilting heavy on the Nationals here, but that's because I'm mighty perplexed at the opinion that seems to have developed in this thread that somehow the Nationals aren't a strong threat to maintain him. I mean, there were comments about the Phillies being a stronger threat, when the Nationals young core is arguably more talented than the Phillies, as much as that's overlooked, regardless of whether or not they keep Harper.

 

I do admit to liking Mike Rizzo. Early on, it seemed like he got the benefit of a lot of top picks, but he's maintained that system through the years. That system has never really let up, and has never really fallen to shambles. I mean, as noted, assuming a super-elite offensive talent like Juan Soto graduates ... they still have a pretty decent group to start with, the IFA's from a year ago to hope on, and a draft.

 

I would argue that a Nationals defensive future with Turner at SS, Robles in CF, Rendon at 3rd is a notch better. It's debatable, but I think Turner will settle into being a top notch defensive shortstop, Robles has all the worlds tools, and Rendon is an elite defensive 3rd baseman. I can see the argument the other way ... the Nationals future at 2nd is a bit unknown and Baez is obviously a top notch defender at 2nd. I was looking more at young core's, so I didn't factor in Jason Heyward in RF.

 

Edit: Tbh, I'm a bit baffled by this contention that I'm not a Cubs fan. I've spoken highly of Taylor Widener before. Does that make me a Diamondbacks fan? I've said for several years that I thought the Rockies had one of the elite systems in the game. Does that make me a Rockies fan? I guess I'm a bit partial to Baltimore and Washington D.C., having grown up here, but I only post on one sports site.

 

I mean, please don’t take offense to it, but an overwhelmingly large amount of your posts are talking up the nationals, their young talent, their appeal as a free agency destination, mike Rizzo, etc. Aside from that, lots of O’s talk. Seemingly much more than any cubs-related commentary you post, aside from minors stuff. Ive literally never seen you post about the diamondbacks or Rockies, so no, I never considered you’d be a fan of either. I’ve gathered you’re from the area, so thought you might be a fan of those teams. It’s cool. There’s fans of other teams here.

 

Sorry to question your Cubs fandom. You should talk more about them.

 

Edit: how on earth are you baffled? Read through your posts. It’s a big old Mike Rizzo love fest.

[Cubswin11]

So you can only be considered part of a young core if you’re an extension candidate? They have Russell through like 2022, that’s plenty of time to be part of a core. It’s not like he’s a free agent in a year. And yeah I’d hope the best player in the NL and the guy who’s going to be a 4-5 WAR catcher are ahead of him in the extension pecking order since Russell hasn’t put it all together yet (even though I’m a big fan).

 

I also doubt Kris ever entertains an extension offer and I’m pretty dubious that Russell is really all that available and think his rumored availability are baseless rumors by idiot writers.

 

Fair enough. I don't disagree with anything. To be clear, I say extensions, and i simply mean long term deals.

 

The honest prism that I was looking through is this - if you are signing KB down in a couple years, Contreras, and going after Harper, moves are going to be made elsewhere. With the arb numbers at SS being what they are, it just strikes me as a possibility that the Cubs are going to move Russell moreso than some of the non-KB/Contreras grouping. He's the one that might also bring the most in return.

 

Now, there's other ways about it. Perhaps someone takes that Heyward deal. There's other possibilities to move money around, but until Ricketts gives any indication that he'll blow things up with payroll or that he's willing to go down the Lerner's road with some "creative" contracts, the assumption has to be that some pieces will be moved sooner than later. Again, that's me, though. To be clear, it's not like I think the Cubs will move all of the people below Willy and KB if they get Harper. Some would stay, obviously, but I think they are all in that unknown land until decisions are made.

Got it. But yeah the trade off is having Harper and KB and losing a guy or two vs not having both KB/Bryce and I think the preference there should be clear. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an extension or 2 this offseason or next. It made sense to hold off to not put us over the LT earlier than wanted/needed and also to figure out exactly what the non-Bryzzo dudes would become.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Leaving aside all else and focusing on just timeline/talent/ability to win ...

 

Elite offensive prospects tend to perform. I forget what the study was, and you would probably know better than I do off the top as I haven't followed as much baseball the past year and half. The super-elite offensive talent tend to perform, and Juan Soto is up there. It's not impossible that they flame out ... nothing is, with prospects, but so far, there aren't any apparent holes, a la Brandon Wood.

 

The top end comparisons aren't that far off - I'm too lazy to dig through the numbers right now, but my guess is that the WAR's over the last 2 years for Strasburg/Scherzer/Rendon/Turner vs. Rizzo/Contreras/Bryant/? isn't that far. There is the x-factor of Yu Darvish. All that said, I'm not denying that the Cubs core is better. What that evaluation does leave off is the assumption that somehow the Cubs will maintain it's group, while the Nationals won't add. I mean, there was some chatter that the Nationals may try to keep Daniel Murphy and eventually slide him to 1st base. If his bat holds, that changes the complexion of things. They could very well go out and make a splash, which I expect them to do in regards to SP.

In the end, how good a team is and how ready they are to win in the short term and compete in the long term is likely only a small facet in his decision. Nonetheless, for all the talk about the Phillies and other clubs, I just don't get why people here are overlooking the Nationals ability to keep him around, particularly when factoring in the Lerner's relationship with Boras and Harper's noted affinity for the DC area.

 

There is a canyon full of potential outcomes between a prospect being Brandon Wood and *both* Soto and Robles being one of the 30 or so best position players in the game as soon as next year(which is basically necessary for that 4 to 4 comparison to be equal). Sometimes playing devil's advocate can cross over to willful ignorance of the situation. There is no permutation where the Nationals, who basically have 2 position players, 2 prospects and 2 starters(one of whom turns 35 next year) that look at all likely to be above average players in 2019, are going to be a more attractive situation than the Cubs, Yankees, or even half the NL East that might pursue Harper.

[squally1313]

It seems like you accept Russell is, at the very least, equal to Turner. So when comparing cores, isn’t it telling that for the Nationals, Turner is untouchable, while for the Cubs, we have superior talent that needs to be taken care of first?

[JennieGarthAlgar]

I think its funny that anyone would think so strongly that a player isn't "part of the core" simply because there are 3 or 4 players better than him on the team.

[Banedon]

Fan- horsefeathering -tastic

 

[tweet]

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EDIT: Fixed my link.