The Bryce is Right, Bitch

[David]

At what point will Kris be making enough money a year to stop pimping various products in every picture? Everybody has endorsements, but you rarely ever see him wearing actual Cubs gear.

What? That answer should be "never."

 

 

Yeah make whatever you can I guess. It is mildly irritating when he wears Adidas gear that is Cub blue. He stands out like a sore thumb when he is with other players. He immediately takes gear off or changes it post game.

 

This is a really really weird thing to be bothered by.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

Also, 100% I didnt even notice the Red Bull logo until you mentioned something and I went back to look. To be honest, Im not a Red Bull drinker or fan at all but that hat looks way cozier than the Cubs ones the other guys are rocking, so wear whatever you want KB, as long as it keeps your pretty head warm.

[Regular Show]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/statcast/status/986023963158630401[/tweet]

 

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https://deadspin.com/bryce-harper-delivers-sweet-sweet-broken-bat-home-run-1825308377

 

Wow, that was impressive. I can't wait till Harper is doing this for the Cubs.

[UMFan83]

Jon Heyman doubling down on him believing the Cubs aren’t a potential Harper landing spot

 

[tweet]

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[Aaron_Kennelly]

Jon Heyman doubling down on him believing the Cubs aren’t a potential Harper landing spot

 

 

I'll bet my entire life savings on Cubs vs. Giants.

[Cubswin11]

He has a 28% BB rate and 15% K rate, lol

[Derwood]

He has a 28% BB rate and 15% K rate, lol

 

He's white Barry Bonds

[Cubswin11]

He has a 28% BB rate and 15% K rate, lol

 

He's white Barry Bonds

White Barry Bonds and Right-Haded Votto in the lineup next year sounds pretty good to me.

[davell]

So, what are the roster accomodations, in order to make this team it's best version, for Bryce?

 

The LT will be 206 next year. We won't go to 246 and incur the max penalties, so what do we do?

 

Here's the roster and salaries, for LT purposes.....

 

Lester-25.833

Darvish -21

Chatwood-12.667

Quintana-10.5 (option that will be picked up)

Smyly- 5

 

Total- 75M

 

Morrow-10.5

Cishek-6.5

Strop-6.25 (option that looks likely to be picked up)

Duensing-3.5

 

Total-26.75 (overall total of 101.75M)

 

Heyward-23

Zobrist-14

Rizzo-5.875

 

Total- 42.875M (overall total of 144.575M)

 

Arbitration Eligibles

 

Bryant-10.850 year 1, to 17.5M

Hendricks-4.175 year 1, to 7.8M

Russell-3.2 year 1, to 6M

La Stella-.950k year , to 1.5M

Baez- year 1 estimate 3.5M

Montgomery- year 1 estimate 1.75M

Schwarber- year 1 estimate 3.5M (tough one to guess on honestly)

Edwards- year 1 estimate 2.4M

 

Total- 43.950M (overall total of 188.525M)

 

That's 20 roster spots. We'll have Contreras, Almora, Happ, and 2 more minimum salaried pitchers as well. That'll be another 3M, plus say another 2 Mill for in season callups.

 

Total-5M (193.525M)

 

Addition for Insurances and rest of 40 Man Roster- 14 Million

 

Actual Payroll of 207.525M heading into getting Bryce.....

 

So, the first thing is this number won't be completely accurate obviously. But, I'll bet it's pretty damn close. So, let's use it for this. Because the situation is going to be the same, even if its off by 2-3M either way.

 

1- What's Bryce going to get?

 

Personally, I think 10/400 is on the extreme low end. I figure whatever he signs, he's getting multiple opt outs. I think Philly may be our true biggest competition for him myself. And they're in a phenomenal position to offer him whatever...... Wouldn't shock me to see them go to 12/500, possibly even slightly more.

 

I think I'm landing on 10/450M. That's my actual guess at what we offer(and he takes).

 

That's going to put us at 252.525M. Or close to 7M over the LT penalty of the highest degree.

 

There's a mid level penalty that's a 12% addition charge between 226 and 246. I know we can pay ANY penalty, we've got the revenue..... I feel extremely confident they'll NOT break the max penalty. I DO think they'll jump into the mid penalty, because it's just monetary. And I think this holds true for EVERY team in MLB that breaks the LT during this current CBA. I'm very confident in that assessment too, it'd be dumb of any owner to do that, prior to the next CBA negotiations, in which the MLBPA are going to want a TON of monetary concessions. No reason to give them even more ammo.....

 

2. After you've figured whatever salary you think it truly takes to land him..... Where do you play him?

 

I'm assuming the consensus answer is RF. He's not great there, but he's passable. Even though he's sitting at -5 DRS already this year.... Personally, I don't see them putting him in CF and increasing any injury chances. So, you've got a logjam already in the OF now. Who do you move?

 

Almora is still making the minimum. Hes not got a ton of value either. He's got some, but I think he's more valuable to us, than in trade. I'm going to assume Happ gets his K issues in check. Hes got value, if he does. But, he's also making the minimum. Moving him doesn't create salary room, even if it netted us a solid prospect of cost controlled player. Schwarber? Yeah, you can move him. And it even makes some sense. But, it's not enough salary and you would need to move more salary too. In my mind, it makes it too complicated.

 

That brings you too Zobrist and Heyward. Moving Zobrist is much easier to do. You MIGHT not even have to attach a prospect to get a team to take him on a 1/12 salary next year at his elderly state. You're not truly freeing up playing time in the OF though. You've got Schwarber, Almora, Happ, Heyward, and Harper out there at that point.

 

Guess you could ALSO move one of Schwarber, Almora, or Happ as well. The Zobrist move alone gets you under the max penalty. And the other move frees up some AB's.

 

But, you're hamstrung from doing ANYTHING else to your roster, if that's all you do.

 

I brought it up in the minor league forum, that attaching prospects to Heyward, freeing up 23M on the LT is our best option. Attaching enough to get a rebuilding team to take on 5/106 isn't going to be easy. If he's a FA right now, what would he get? 1/10ish? That's my guess.

 

At any rate, while unconventional, it would give us 15M or so, or flexibility, under the max penalty, AND free up an OF spot too. If he puts up a decent season, maybe it helps lessen the prospect blow. No, a team has NEVER done this before, on THIS level. I think it's about to happen though, due to the restrictions put in place.

 

Is Heyward definitely a goner? Of course not. It may cost too much currency to move him. But, if that's the case, do you just dip into pitching to save room?

 

3. How far do you want to stay under 246? That's the key here. We know Theo values flexibility. We're not going to JUST add him and nothing else.

 

I have no idea HOW FAR we would want to get under the max(246). But, my GUESS is by 20M. We'll need money for something.

 

The pitchers I could see us move in this case? Strop is an easy choice. Although it seems as if he's extremely well liked and a great clubhouse guy. Not saying that keeps him around, especially when Bryce is involved. But, I am saying it could take them in a different direction. That said, he's an easy choice.

 

Cishek is another easy option. Last year of his deal, solid reliever.... Relatively easy to move. Monty? I'll almost guarantee he gets moved. He's not going to get a chance to start here, he wants one...... Yeah, he'll be dealt. But, it doesn't save a ton and it creates a hole too. Hopefully Alzolay and Maples are ready to be full-time ML arms.

 

Smyly at 1/7? Depending on when he comes back and how he looks, I think this is an option. Not a likely one. But, an option. Or..... How about moving Chatwood? Let's say he gets the walks down..... Very valuable commodity. Still have Smyly and possibly Monty, plus Alzolay to compete for the 5th spot......

 

So, it comes down to combos..... Who are you moving here? In my mind, we're going to want to get down to 226M after giving Harper 45M a year. Save us 20M to use on other off-season moves.....

 

To me, Heyward is the guy to move. But, it's probably going to cost us a ton, so maybe he truly just turns into a backup that's making 23M of our LT.

 

My guess is Zobrist, Strop, plus one of Cishek or Smyly. Those are the casualties of signing Bryce.

 

Is it worth it? In my mind, it's an easy yes. At least on the player movement. Giving a non-Cub that much money, when you've got to ante up for some of your own in the relatively near future? That's a different discussion, that can be had, at a later time. Enough to talk about here.....

 

So, this is how I see this going down..... I do NOT see us going past 246. I do see us signing him. Even though signing Pollock and Andrew Miller or one of the other relievers, could be an interesting alternative. Or Machado. Or any number of other possibilities too. Honestly, could have spent more time on those scenarios. Because it's important. But, I'm tired of writing this.

 

Anyway, I'm pretty positive we won't go past the upper limits of the LT. I've got Bryce at 10/450. Because I think Philly is going to really make us pay up. And if that's the case, what's the moves you make, to accommodate this signing? Or do you think he goes much cheaper? I can see people thinking I'm on the absolute high end of money. But, it's more about how this affects everything else.......

 

Thoughts?

[imb]

attach Happ to Heyward. Say if you pay for Heyward's 2019, we'll pick up literally whatever is left. Now you've got Schwarbs/Almora/Harper in the OF, throw Bryant out there in LF when there's a left on the mound you don't want schwarber to face and go Baez/Russell/Zobrist/Rizzo in the infield. Bote looks like he can pass at 3B if he has to. (Ironically, Christian Villanueva or Jeimer look really good in this scenario.)

[Cubswin11]

Hopefully we do just say horsefeathers it and sign him and don’t get rid of anyone and the playing time will figure itself out like it always does. But yeah Heyward is the move, I wonder if Heyward+Monty+Prospect is what we’d look to do. Find a team who thinks Monty is a starter and Smyly takes his spot on the team.

[davell]

attach Happ to Heyward. Say if you pay for Heyward's 2019, we'll pick up literally whatever is left. Now you've got Schwarbs/Almora/Harper in the OF, throw Bryant out there in LF when there's a left on the mound you don't want schwarber to face and go Baez/Russell/Zobrist/Rizzo in the infield. Bote looks like he can pass at 3B if he has to. (Ironically, Christian Villanueva or Jeimer look really good in this scenario.)

 

With as much as I'd thought about this, that EXACT scenario hadn't entered my mind lol. That makes sense. But, the money situation doesn't work from an LT standpoint. That would just pro rate Heywards hit. But, I think Happ is worth much more than just one year of Heyward too. So, it still makes sense. And yeah, I oddly feel comfy with Bote too in our long term plan.

[Bertz]

I would guess Plan A is to dump Heyward, and Plan B is Zobrist. I also wonder about Chatwood. Lets say Alzolay has a good year at Iowa this year, and Lange pitches half the season at AA and does well. I could see them dumping Chatwood and his $13m since they'd have those two plus Smyly to fill out the 5th starter spot while still maintaining good rotation depth.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There’s still a lot of time for injuries or underperformance to happen, but right now you don’t really need to worry about having money for any other additions. The rotation is spoken for, with Smyly, Montgomery, and Azolay being depth options. Wilson is the only reliever leaving, and Smyly needs a roster spot plus Maples and maybe another downstream arm are optionable pen possibilities.

 

If you absolutely need to free up money, selling off Zobrist is the easiest option, assuming that Happ is a functioning major leaguer and they don’t mind him getting some infield time(La Stella and/or Bote being IF reserves is also a possibility). You don’t have to get rid of Heyward and you definitely don’t need to attach a player as valuable as Happ to him to make room for Harper.

[Cubswin11]

We also can't rule out Theo pulling his magic and getting Harper for closer to $30-35 in aav than the $40-50 aav that some seem to think he's going to get.

[davell]

There’s still a lot of time for injuries or underperformance to happen, but right now you don’t really need to worry about having money for any other additions. The rotation is spoken for, with Smyly, Montgomery, and Azolay being depth options. Wilson is the only reliever leaving, and Smyly needs a roster spot plus Maples and maybe another downstream arm are optionable pen possibilities.

 

If you absolutely need to free up money, selling off Zobrist is the easiest option, assuming that Happ is a functioning major leaguer and they don’t mind him getting some infield time(La Stella and/or Bote being IF reserves is also a possibility). You don’t have to get rid of Heyward and you definitely don’t need to attach a player as valuable as Happ to him to make room for Harper.

 

To get rid of all of Heywards deal or you just don't want to go down that particular road? Because I think it would take a lot to get any team to take 5/106 off our books, if we DID go down that route. Of which, it'd be to free up OF AB's obviously. Again, I'm not advocating that as the easiest option.

[davell]

We also can't rule out Theo pulling his magic and getting Harper for closer to $30-35 in aav than the $40-50 aav that some seem to think he's going to get.

 

Who knows? I'm hopeful on that. But, I think 12/400 may be the low end from an AAV standpoint. Granted, that'd help a ton.

[toonsterwu]

I think the chances are high that Heyward is simply a sunk cost. Granted, all it takes is one team, but with teams being so careful about money this past offseason, it seems like the Cubs would have to go too far to get teams to bite. I'm not all that convinced a team will necessarily say, Ian Happ, okay, we'll take a huge chunk of Heyward's deal. It may make logical sense, but I'm not convinced a team will do that. The other alternative is to find a bad contract swap to alleviate the burden somewhat, but it's hard to find a good matching deal.

 

Anyhow, I'm still of the opinion that Bryce Harper is likely staying with the Nationals. Personally, I think it's something like 70/30 Harper stays with the Nationals. All the rumors down this way point strongly in that direction - the Nationals will pony up unless a team gets to ridiculous levels (and I think ridiculous levels is something like 10/500 ... and I don't know if a team gets there), Boras is ridiculously close to the Lerners (they even acknowledge it ... he meets with the Lerners each summer, IIRC, bypassing Mike Rizzo), and Harper does like it in DC. With the way the Nationals do deferrals and Boras being amenable to it, plus the fact that the Nationals are open to opt-outs, I just don't see Harper budging unless someone blows the house down so much that the Nationals have to move on.

 

Anyhow, more a total side note, but I have a hunch on Philly. It'll really come down to how things go, but I think they may try to swing a big deal with Baltimore. Not just Machado ... I think they may try to swing a deal for Schoop as well, if Schoop is healthy and hitting. With how close Schoop and Machado are, it may give them a bargaining chip, along with money, to convince Machado to stick around. They'll have the middle infield talent and pitching to flip to the Orioles, and it would help the Orioles look a bit better by potentially snagging some high end talent, rather than settle for whatever teams would fork over for a rental.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Keep Heyward forever as a reminder that opt-outs are never perfunctory or meaningless. They are always hugely in the player's favor.

[toonsterwu]

The one thing I wonder about Harper is this ... could a team try to reel him in with a blow away the water short term offer, and hope that he enjoys it so much that he sticks around? The Phillies would be the logical guess on that, due to their clean sheet and the offers they made this winter, but if the contract gets too big and long, teams, like the Nationals, get "creative" with deferrals and all sorts of other junk. If a team came in and bombed the bidding with say ... 3/150 ... something that would be pretty crazy ... and hope that they get their foot in the door, could that sway things.

 

Personally, once things get too long and too big, then I think the ball gets back in the Nationals court. But a short term blow away offer would force a lot of juggling on their end, because I think, even with deferrals, too lazy to check this morning, Scherzer and Strasburg's contracts are kicking up a lot soon, and Rendon needs a deal soon.

[Derwood]

Bryce is a swell guy who will happily backload his contract so we stay under the LT for a few years

[Tim]

Bryce is a swell guy who will happily backload his contract so we stay under the LT for a few years

That's not how the LT calculation works. It uses the AAV of the contract.

 

I do think there's a possibility of doing something like 12/480 instead of 10/450, which would help significantly. My hope is that after winning another title in 2018, Zobrist decides he's had enough days under the bright lights and retires. The championship halo surrounds a somewhat resurgent Heyward and we can find a team willing to take on half his salary. That gives us more than enough flexibility under the max penalty to get it done.

 

Lineup:

 

1) RF - Harper

2) 3B - Bryant

3) 1B - Rizzo

4) C - Contreras

5) LF - Schwarber

6) 2B - Baez

7) CF - Happ

8) SS - Russell

[Cubswin11]

The one thing I wonder about Harper is this ... could a team try to reel him in with a blow away the water short term offer, and hope that he enjoys it so much that he sticks around? The Phillies would be the logical guess on that, due to their clean sheet and the offers they made this winter, but if the contract gets too big and long, teams, like the Nationals, get "creative" with deferrals and all sorts of other junk. If a team came in and bombed the bidding with say ... 3/150 ... something that would be pretty crazy ... and hope that they get their foot in the door, could that sway things.

 

.

No. He’s going to get his 300-500 guaranteed but just have opt outs. Makes no sense for him to only do 3/150.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There’s still a lot of time for injuries or underperformance to happen, but right now you don’t really need to worry about having money for any other additions. The rotation is spoken for, with Smyly, Montgomery, and Azolay being depth options. Wilson is the only reliever leaving, and Smyly needs a roster spot plus Maples and maybe another downstream arm are optionable pen possibilities.

 

If you absolutely need to free up money, selling off Zobrist is the easiest option, assuming that Happ is a functioning major leaguer and they don’t mind him getting some infield time(La Stella and/or Bote being IF reserves is also a possibility). You don’t have to get rid of Heyward and you definitely don’t need to attach a player as valuable as Happ to him to make room for Harper.

 

To get rid of all of Heywards deal or you just don't want to go down that particular road? Because I think it would take a lot to get any team to take 5/106 off our books, if we DID go down that route. Of which, it'd be to free up OF AB's obviously. Again, I'm not advocating that as the easiest option.

 

I think trading Heyward being the best option is very unlikely. Heyward in an OF that has Schwarber, Almora, and Harper is a perfect fit, and all the other position players have at least some IF flexibility if they're even productive(Happ) or on the roster(Zobrist).

[DonnieD]

Does anyone think Bryce needs the largest total dollar contract *and* the highest AAV contract for his ego? If not the just offer him 25/$500 and call it a day. Front load with some opt outs and stay under the LT.