Cecil to Cards

[davell]

[Tim]

Not happy about this for a couple of reasons. First, Cecil is a damn fine reliever and I wanted him for the Cubs. Second, holy crap the market for relievers.

[Cubswin11]

Well, Jansen and Chapman are getting 5+ years and $100+ million

[davell]

Well, Jansen and Chapman are getting 5+ years and $100+ million

 

Yeppers.....

[Rob]

Damn, I sorta wanted Cecil rather than see us spending on Jansen/Chapman.

[Post Count Padder]

That bums me out a little. Really liked the idea of him in our pen. A

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Damn, I sorta wanted Cecil rather than see us spending on Jansen/Chapman.

 

I think this really illustrates the misunderstanding of the scale that relievers operate on. I'd give Chapman something absurd like 6/180 before I considered Cecil at 7-8 million. Chapman and Jansen are cheat codes and have proven themselves far more immune to the volatility that suppresses reliever cost than Cecil.

[Cubswin11]

Damn, I sorta wanted Cecil rather than see us spending on Jansen/Chapman.

 

I think this really illustrates the misunderstanding of the scale that relievers operate on. I'd give Chapman something absurd like 6/180 before I considered Cecil at 7-8 million. Chapman and Jansen are cheat codes and have proven themselves far more immune to the volatility that suppresses reliever cost than Cecil.

 

Thinking Jansen/Chapman are too expensive at 4-6 years and 80-140 million but then being fine with Cecil at 4/30-40 is just trying to half ass something instead of whole assing one thing

Edited November 19, 2016 by Cubswin11

[davell]

If we sign a non closing lefty, who's the preference?

 

Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, Mike Dunn, JP Howell, or Marc Rzepcynski?

[Cubswin11]

If we sign a non closing lefty, who's the preference?

 

Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, Mike Dunn, JP Howell, or Marc Rzepcynski?

Derek Holland?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I liked Dunn a ton as a trade target last winter, but he missed time with a forearm injury and looks pretty high risk. To be honest though, the only way I'd want to spend real money on a LHRP is if they fail to sign Chapman or add a SP(meaning Montgomery to the rotation), which isn't an outcome I find all that likely. This FO's history says they don't put a lot of emphasis/dollars on that spot in the bullpen either, so I don't think it's something we'll see unless it's a guy that has the real chance to be more than a LOOGY.

 

All that said, I bet you could get Justin Wilson for little more than his contract at this point, I like him as a bounceback guy.

[davell]

 

LMFAO

[Tryptamine]

I really wanted Cecil, but the 4/30+ is just too much to pony up. With that said, I'm terrified Theo is going to go the throw horsefeathers at a wall method in filling the bullpen holes which is completely unacceptable when you're not only a WS contender, but WS favorite.

[Cubswin11]

I really wanted Cecil, but the 4/30+ is just too much to pony up. With that said, I'm terrified Theo is going to go the throw horsefeathers at a wall method in filling the bullpen holes which is completely unacceptable when you're not only a WS contender, but WS favorite.

I think he's earned a little bit of blind trust with whatever move(s) he makes this offseason

[Agony and Ivy]

If we sign a non closing lefty, who's the preference?

 

Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, Mike Dunn, JP Howell, or Marc Rzepcynski?

Derek Holland?

 

JP is a close friend of mine but I don't want him on to be the bullpen lefty signing, I'd rather keep Wood.

[davell]

I really wanted Cecil, but the 4/30+ is just too much to pony up. With that said, I'm terrified Theo is going to go the throw horsefeathers at a wall method in filling the bullpen holes which is completely unacceptable when you're not only a WS contender, but WS favorite.

 

I'm kind of floored someone actually typed that out.

[Tryptamine]

I really wanted Cecil, but the 4/30+ is just too much to pony up. With that said, I'm terrified Theo is going to go the throw horsefeathers at a wall method in filling the bullpen holes which is completely unacceptable when you're not only a WS contender, but WS favorite.

 

I'm kind of floored someone actually typed that out.

 

That's pretty much what he did in '15 and '16 no? I just really don't want to get bent over again at the trade deadline when it's something that could have been addressed in the offseason.

[davell]

I really wanted Cecil, but the 4/30+ is just too much to pony up. With that said, I'm terrified Theo is going to go the throw horsefeathers at a wall method in filling the bullpen holes which is completely unacceptable when you're not only a WS contender, but WS favorite.

 

I'm kind of floored someone actually typed that out.

 

That's pretty much what he did in '15 and '16 no? I just really don't want to get bent over again at the trade deadline when it's something that could have been addressed in the offseason.

 

I don't think our bullpen was a weakness during '15 or '16. Giving up Torres sucked. But it helped us win a WS. I don't think we got bent over at all. Prospects are currency and we're already loaded.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I really wanted Cecil, but the 4/30+ is just too much to pony up. With that said, I'm terrified Theo is going to go the throw horsefeathers at a wall method in filling the bullpen holes which is completely unacceptable when you're not only a WS contender, but WS favorite.

 

I'm kind of floored someone actually typed that out.

 

That's pretty much what he did in '15 and '16 no? I just really don't want to get bent over again at the trade deadline when it's something that could have been addressed in the offseason.

 

I actually respect the emotion and passion.

 

I'm just not there yet. Theo needed five years to deliver us all a championship that seemed at times would never happen. I'm still celebrating that title from two weeks ago. He can do whatever the hell he wants with this baseball team for as long as he is here. But I'm also easy to please.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The pre-'15 and pre-'16 pen had healthy and productive Rondon and Strop to anchor it. If that were the case for the pre-'17 pen I'd have far less tunnel vision about Chapman/Jansen. Also if there were other ways to conceivably spend for impact talent, but that's a bit beside the point.

[Rob]

Damn, I sorta wanted Cecil rather than see us spending on Jansen/Chapman.

 

I think this really illustrates the misunderstanding of the scale that relievers operate on. I'd give Chapman something absurd like 6/180 before I considered Cecil at 7-8 million. Chapman and Jansen are cheat codes and have proven themselves far more immune to the volatility that suppresses reliever cost than Cecil.

 

Part of it is I just don't like Chapman as a person. I didn't want us to trade for him because of it, and I'd rather we not sign him for it now.

 

And I'm just not buying that there's a reliever that is that much more immune to volatility. It wasn't that long ago that people were talking about Craig Kimbrel like they're talking about Jansen now.

 

I'll agree that I don't want Cecil at that price, but I still think it's fine to spread the money among cheaper options and hope you get guys like Rondon and Strop have turned out to be.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

The pre-'15 and pre-'16 pen had healthy and productive Rondon and Strop to anchor it. If that were the case for the pre-'17 pen I'd have far less tunnel vision about Chapman/Jansen. Also if there were other ways to conceivably spend for impact talent, but that's a bit beside the point.

 

I've actually brought this up in previous seasons, but I think a non-Dodgers or Yankees team sort of has to have a limit on how many 20 million plus guys they have on the books. And with Lester and Heyward already above that I feel doing another for a closer makes it more difficult to get a top of the line pitcher next year or......Bryce Harper a few years from now.

 

I might be wrong, though.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Damn, I sorta wanted Cecil rather than see us spending on Jansen/Chapman.

 

I think this really illustrates the misunderstanding of the scale that relievers operate on. I'd give Chapman something absurd like 6/180 before I considered Cecil at 7-8 million. Chapman and Jansen are cheat codes and have proven themselves far more immune to the volatility that suppresses reliever cost than Cecil.

 

Part of it is I just don't like Chapman as a person. I didn't want us to trade for him because of it, and I'd rather we not sign him for it now.

 

And I'm just not buying that there's a reliever that is that much more immune to volatility. It wasn't that long ago that people were talking about Craig Kimbrel like they're talking about Jansen now.

 

I'll agree that I don't want Cecil at that price, but I still think it's fine to spread the money among cheaper options and hope you get guys like Rondon and Strop have turned out to be.

 

Kimbrel gave up a few more HR when the league did, and then he got the AL East penalty on top of that. If there's a takeaway I think it's that you need to weight recent years a bit more when considering consistency(and the HR thing is something to keep in mind with Jansen), but I don't think he's at all a cautionary tale. He had the environment/ball change, got moved to the toughest league/division, and had control issues and was still very effective.

 

The takeaway isn't that Chapman and Jansen can never have a downturn, it's that they're so dominant that even when you stack the volatility deck against them, you have the downside of 2016 Craig Kimbrel, saving 94% of opportunities in the AL East with a sub-3 FIP. Or in other words, the downside is good Rondon!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The pre-'15 and pre-'16 pen had healthy and productive Rondon and Strop to anchor it. If that were the case for the pre-'17 pen I'd have far less tunnel vision about Chapman/Jansen. Also if there were other ways to conceivably spend for impact talent, but that's a bit beside the point.

 

I've actually brought this up in previous seasons, but I think a non-Dodgers or Yankees team sort of has to have a limit on how many 20 million plus guys they have on the books. And with Lester and Heyward already above that I feel doing another for a closer makes it more difficult to get a top of the line pitcher next year or......Bryce Harper a few years from now.

 

I might be wrong, though.

 

It's fair that you have to keep future flexibility in mind to a certain extent, and the Cubs core is going to get more expensive as the young guys hit arbitration. The upshot is that there aren't many future holes to fill, they have a lot of payroll room without the payroll skyrocketing, and the payroll very well may skyrocket with the momentum of the WS leading into a new TV deal.

 

So for anyone wanting to sign Fowler and Jansen/Chapman and then spend big on a SP next year, yeah it's something to keep in the back of your mind. But personally I don't think things are tight enough to say we can't get an elite guy at a position of need because of future payroll considerations. After all, they have more than 50 million coming off the payroll next year alone with Arrieta/Montero/Lackey/Strop. Sure some of those guys will require money to replace, but if we're spending to get back to the status quo then things are more than fine considering the revenue that's coming.

[Clem Fandango]

If we sign a non closing lefty, who's the preference?

 

Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, Mike Dunn, JP Howell, or Marc Rzepcynski?

 

Logan pretty handily