Any Thoughts on Pursuing Sale or Quintana?

[Outshined_One]

This article sums up Rick Hahn's recent statements about the White Sox' intentions going into the offseason:

 

The White Sox could be on the verge of a historic roster teardown that includes the trades of pitchers Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, among many others. With a free agent class thin on talent, especially among starting pitchers, and a top-heavy 25-man roster that has several critical, expensive holes to fill, the common belief is the White Sox are well-positioned to build for a bright future if they make their players available.

 

As much as we can discuss whether or not the White Sox will actually follow through on that, there's been a bit of discussion on sports radio and online regarding White Sox trade partners, particularly with the Red Sox. While the White Sox farm system is improving, most of their top prospects are recent draftees and pitchers. While Tim Anderson might be the long term solution at SS, their current Brett Lawrie, Melky Cabrera, and Todd Frazier are slated for free agency after next season, assuming they're not traded first.

 

Considering the Cubs' glut of young MIF and OF talent, and the fact that the Cubs' rotation has some long term questions, I think the Cubs and White Sox actually match up really well for a possible trade. Is this something that would be worth pursuing for the Cubs, or would the price for either be too much to swallow?

[davell]

Of course it'd be worth it to check. Personally though, outside of Soler, I'm not wanting to break up the positional group at all. Trade off any and every thing we have in the minors.

 

I'd rather grab post hype guys myself, to be honest.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Sale's cost would probably be prohibitive. Quintana(who I've wanted forever) likely will have too high a cost as well, but it's possible that something could happen involving him.

[USSoccer]

I'd just as soon not trade for Sale, who makes John Lackey seem like a likable person.

 

I'd imagine the WS would probably make the cost to acquire either guy pretty prohibitive anyway.

[davell]

Does Sale even bring back THAT much more of a return? He's got 3/39.5 left. Quintana has 4/36.850.....

 

Archer has 5/35, by the way. Pretty interesting contracts on the 3. I'm not that sure the trade packages will be all that different.

[KingCubsFan]

Given the inferiority complex of their fanbase, there's 0% chance they'd make a trade with the Cubs as part of a teardown. Quintana would be a perfect acquisition, but it's just not happening.

[apete6]

Given the inferiority complex of their fanbase, there's 0% chance they'd make a trade with the Cubs as part of a teardown. Quintana would be a perfect acquisition, but it's just not happening.

 

This. They'd require something insane like Schwarber, Baez, and more for either guy.

 

In fair value, Sale for Schwarber + small parts is probably about right. Quintana for Baez + also.

 

If the Cubs could get either guy without giving up Schwarber, Baez, Addison, Contreras, or Eloy, I'm in. Soler, Almora, and Happ +, I'd do it in a second.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'd just as soon not trade for Sale, who makes John Lackey seem like a likable person.

 

Is there anything to him other than the jersey incident, which sounds like something that would have been a deleted scene from Major League II? I know he's not thrilled with the direction of the team, but it's hard to blame him for that.

[USSoccer]

I'd just as soon not trade for Sale, who makes John Lackey seem like a likable person.

 

Is there anything to him other than the jersey incident, which sounds like something that would have been a deleted scene from Major League II? I know he's not thrilled with the direction of the team, but it's hard to blame him for that.

 

There was also his hysterical reaction to the Drake LaRoche thing.

 

Sale is a jackass. I'd rather not root for a jackass.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'd just as soon not trade for Sale, who makes John Lackey seem like a likable person.

 

Is there anything to him other than the jersey incident, which sounds like something that would have been a deleted scene from Major League II? I know he's not thrilled with the direction of the team, but it's hard to blame him for that.

 

 

Wasn't he a part of the LaRoche child banishment revolt?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Sale's cost would probably be prohibitive. Quintana(who I've wanted forever) likely will have too high a cost as well, but it's possible that something could happen involving him.

 

Front end pitching is always going to have a high cost. And when the free agent pitching market is highlighted by Rich Hill and Jeremy Hellickson, I expect teams to ask for Baez, at the very least, for guys like Jimmy Nelson or Josh Tomlin, let alone Sale, Quintana, or Archer.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

oh okay

[biittner77]

The real question is whether the Sox are going to commit to being horrible for a couple years and follow the model of the Royals and Cubs? If so, they want high end guys that are a couple years away more so than guys that will help them win now. So maybe they'd take either of Schwarber or Baez plus Happ and some other pieces rather than demanding both.

[CubinNY]

The real question is whether the Sox are going to commit to being horrible for a couple years and follow the model of the Royals and Cubs? If so, they want high end guys that are a couple years away more so than guys that will help them win now. So maybe they'd take either of Schwarber or Baez plus Happ and some other pieces rather than demanding both.

I don't want anything to do with Sale.

[squally1313]

I love Schwarber and Baez as much as anyone around here and have totally bought into investing on offense, but there is no way either of those guys brings back either Sale or Quintana without including another main piece. Sale and Quintana rank 5th and 8th in fWAR over the last three years (sandwiching Lester and Jake, for what it's worth), each making between 50% and 75% of what Mike Leake just got on the open market last year.

 

While I do think we need to figure out another starter to slot in the rotation for multiple years, we may not line up well with them. If they trade them both off, they aren't going to hope to contend for at least a couple years, so getting players that already have their service clocks ticking might not be their ideal path. Let them raid Boston or LA's farm system and watch the attendance plummet.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I love Schwarber and Baez as much as anyone around here and have totally bought into investing on offense, but there is no way either of those guys brings back either Sale or Quintana without including another main piece. Sale and Quintana rank 5th and 8th in fWAR over the last three years (sandwiching Lester and Jake, for what it's worth), each making between 50% and 75% of what Mike Leake just got on the open market last year.

 

While I do think we need to figure out another starter to slot in the rotation for multiple years, we may not line up well with them. If they trade them both off, they aren't going to hope to contend for at least a couple years, so getting players that already have their service clocks ticking might not be their ideal path. Let them raid Boston or LA's farm system and watch the attendance plummet.

 

In the pure mathematic sense, this is a good illustration of how much surplus value Baez and Schwarber have.

 

Sale is a 5-6 win pitcher on a 3/39 deal, at 8M/win you're looking at roughly 90 million in surplus value.

 

Quintana is a near 5 win pitcher on a 4/37 deal, which is about 120 million in surplus value.

 

Baez is a near 3 win hitter under control for 5 years, with arbitration estimates you're looking at 90-95 million in surplus value.

 

And Schwarber is a 3-4 win hitter under control for 5 years, with arbitration estimates you're probably in the neighborhood of 105 million in surplus value.

 

So again, from a straight 'value to the team' perspective, you aren't looking at adding much to one of those guys to make this match up. That's "fair", and not really a homer opinion. However, you still have to offer enough to 1) convince the Sox to make a move and 2) be the best offer out there. That's what would take additional pieces, not that Baez or Schwarber are so much less valuable, but that you need to convince the Sox to blow it up with the quality of your offer to get them.

 

Personally, I'd still be very interested in a Baez + some other major piece for Quintana deal depending on the details.

[squally1313]

The Schwarber/Baez projections are probably a bit optimistic, no? For Baez, yes he put up 2.7 in only 450 PAs, but it was by far his best output and he was used about as optimally as you can be...I can't see him adding a ton more value by factoring in another 100-150 PAs against RHPs at a .297 wOBA. Steamer has him at 1.9 for 540 PAs next year, though I think we all agree his defense will be worth more than they are projecting.

 

For Schwarber, assuming this injury marked the end of his catching, we're looking at him as an outfield only guy (or for the White Sox, a DH, but obviously there are replacement value issues there too). In 2016, the following outfielders had a defensive rating less than -5 and put up at least 3 WAR:

 

Nelson Cruz (-15.6 Def, .383 wOBA, 4.2 WAR)

Cespedes (-9.2, .369, 3.2)

Braun (-8.8, .378, 3.2)

Blackmon (-8.4, .394, 3.9)

Yelich (-5.3, .367, 4.4)

 

I'm not sure what number you used to get to your surplus value calcs. I'm hoping Schwarber improves on his 2015, but to expect him to end up in the Cruz/Cespedes/Braun category from an offensive viewpoint is probably aiming a little too high.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's certainly possible they're optimistic, but at the same time, Baez's near 3 win performance didn't really include any outliers, plus on another team he'd be even more valuable as a full-time SS. He obviously has room to grow offensively and has already made strides, so further improvement isn't out of the question either. As for Schwarber, he played at a 4-5 win pace in 2015 with less than a third of his PAs coming as a catcher, so there's some built in regression allowed there too. I'm comfortable calling him a LH Nelson Cruz, for example, maybe slightly less bat and a little more glove. If the White Sox think Baez's bat is a time bomb or that Schwarber is a -20 LF then that would change things, but like I alluded to before, we have to assume they like the players in question to consider trading for them, otherwise their exact surplus value doesn't matter.

 

In any case, I was also optimistic both ways. Quintana fell short of 5 wins each of the last two years, Sale regressed a bit peripherally but we'll assume that was intentional, and neither are penalized for the much higher injury risk they carry as pitchers.

 

For surplus value, it was a quick 8 x WAR per season minus their salary, which I back of the enveloped to be 25M for Baez and ~30M for Schwarber through arbitration. Arbitration salaries might look very different in 4+ years, but that gets into complexity that is beyond the point I was making, since I wasn't inflating the cost per win each successive year either.

[toonsterwu]

I won't be too quick to jump on Sale on the LaRoche thing. That seemed like such a strange situation, and my gut feeling on reading that was that their clubhouse was a mess, enough so that guys weren't communicating. Our clubhouse doesn't seem like that, although who knows how things change. Still, the fact that Sale was so tight with one of the guys isn't the worst thing. His actions weren't the best, by any means.

 

_____

 

As for pursuing Sale or Quintanta, we've always made sense as a match because of our positional depth compared to their pitching depth to supplement any guys they trade away. I just don't think we shoot THIS high unless Arrieta gets moved, or the price of Sale is cheaper than expected, and neither are things I'm expecting. If we're trading major pieces for someone on that squad, I'd rather go after Adam Eaton.