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Posted

Let's guess what injury or terrible disease he is suffering from.

 

I say it's a tossup between Boneitis and drinking from the wrong Grail cup.

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Posted
Jake was good all of last season, but it wasn't until August and September that he was really incredible and unhittable. I expect a reasonably strong July before going full Jake for the rest of the year.
Posted
That inability to locate a fastball while relying on the slider to get strikes started sending me down Carlos Marmol memory lane.

 

Which for me screams mechanics. I honestly don't think it's injury because if it were then he's letting it drop his value significantly and I don't think Jake is going to do that with his one chance to get a mega deal just a year and a half away.

Posted

Last 5 starts, Arrieta has downgraded from "God Mode" to merely "Very Good"

 

3-2, 3.54 ERA, 28.0 IP, 23 H, 15 BB, 36 K, 1 HR, 1.35 WHIP

 

Concerns:

 

- Averaging just 5 2/3 IP/start over last 5 starts

- Walks are going way up (15 in 5 starts vs. 25 in previous 11 starts)

 

Reasons optimism:

 

- Getting outlucked with an opponent BABIP of .324 over the stretch

- OpAvg is just .219, and OpSLG is just .314 over the stretch

Posted
That inability to locate a fastball while relying on the slider to get strikes started sending me down Carlos Marmol memory lane.

 

Which for me screams mechanics. I honestly don't think it's injury because if it were then he's letting it drop his value significantly and I don't think Jake is going to do that with his one chance to get a mega deal just a year and a half away.

 

Just glancing at Brooks Baseball. His release points seem fine when compared to last year, so that backs up the not an injury idea. I'll bet it's front side mechanics and hitters adjusting like they did to Keuchel. Luckily Jake has great stuff so he can re-adjust and stay in the zone and still beat hitters.

Posted
Last 5 starts, Arrieta has downgraded from "God Mode" to merely "Very Good"

 

3-2, 3.54 ERA, 28.0 IP, 23 H, 15 BB, 36 K, 1 HR, 1.35 WHIP

well we wanted Tyson Ross, looks like we got him

Posted
Last 5 starts, Arrieta has downgraded from "God Mode" to merely "Very Good"

 

3-2, 3.54 ERA, 28.0 IP, 23 H, 15 BB, 36 K, 1 HR, 1.35 WHIP

 

Concerns:

 

- Averaging just 5 2/3 IP/start over last 5 starts

- Walks are going way up (15 in 5 starts vs. 25 in previous 11 starts)

 

Reasons optimism:

 

- Getting outlucked with an opponent BABIP of .324 over the stretch

- OpAvg is just .219, and OpSLG is just .314 over the stretch

On the BABIP part, I would think it's common for a pitcher struggling with control issues (often finding himself behind in the count) for their BABIP to rise as batters are in more advantageous counts/can eliminate certain pitches and sit on a pitch. No?

Posted
Last 5 starts, Arrieta has downgraded from "God Mode" to merely "Very Good"

 

3-2, 3.54 ERA, 28.0 IP, 23 H, 15 BB, 36 K, 1 HR, 1.35 WHIP

 

Concerns:

 

- Averaging just 5 2/3 IP/start over last 5 starts

- Walks are going way up (15 in 5 starts vs. 25 in previous 11 starts)

 

Reasons optimism:

 

- Getting outlucked with an opponent BABIP of .324 over the stretch

- OpAvg is just .219, and OpSLG is just .314 over the stretch

On the BABIP part, I would think it's common for a pitcher struggling with control issues (often finding himself behind in the count) for their BABIP to rise as batters are in more advantageous counts/can eliminate certain pitches and sit on a pitch. No?

 

Possible but I think it's just regression. The Cubs BABIP for the first couple months was unsustainable and Arrieta's led the way. Looking at those numbers though, it's pretty much the walks.

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