Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

[Cubbie Swagger]

I understand the whole crapshoot thing... but was it a crapshoot when the Yankees won 4 rings in 5 years? Are there exceptions?

 

I know it's too early to really tell as far as our club is concerned, but my question is more of a general one.

[Cubswin11]

Yes

[Sammy Sofa]

Of course.

 

I mean...how could they not be? This is a really odd question.

[Andy]

To put it simply, if we lose a game to Pittsburgh this coming weekend because they BABIP us to death or if Javy makes some incredibly fluky error, we're still going to win the division. If we lose a game to them like that in the NLDS, we then have to beat them 3 out of 4.

 

The playoffs are a crapshoot. Always.

[Cubbie Swagger]

Of course.

 

I mean...how could they not be? This is a really odd question.

My question is basically: when you're an actual statistical outlier like the Cubs seem to be, how much does that play into the equation?

[Cubswin11]

Of course.

 

I mean...how could they not be? This is a really odd question.

My question is basically: when you're an actual statistical outlier like the Cubs seem to be, how much does that play into the equation?

About as close to absolute zero as possible

[Cubbie Swagger]

Of course.

 

I mean...how could they not be? This is a really odd question.

My question is basically: when you're an actual statistical outlier like the Cubs seem to be, how much does that play into the equation?

About as close to absolute zero as possible

Well, then. I guess I don't have to wonder anymore.

[Sammy Sofa]

How could they NOT be a crapshoot? Basically nobody is that good. Even if the Cubs keep being insane and win a ridiculous amount of games they're stilling going to lose, like, 45-55 games. They only have to lose 3 more to get bounced from the playoffs in the first round.

[Tim]

I understand the whole crapshoot thing... but was it a crapshoot when the Yankees won 4 rings in 5 years? Are there exceptions?

 

I know it's too early to really tell as far as our club is concerned, but my question is more of a general one.

Ask the 116 win mariners.

[Sammy Sofa]

This is kinda like asking if an Olympic long jumper has a chance to fly if he keeps breaking long jumping records.

[Cubbie Swagger]

This is kinda like asking if an Olympic long jumper has a chance to fly if he keeps breaking long jumping records.

You're right. It's almost exactly like that.

[squally1313]

I guess the only thing you could maybe get away with is saying it would be slightly less of a crapshoot. This is really rough math but is probably wrong, but a true talent level 105 win team has a 64.8% chance of winning every game. I can't figure out the best way to run 5/7 game simulations, but if you have a 64.8% chance of winning each series, your odds of winning the World Series are 27.2% (64.8^3). Conversely, a 90 win team ends up with a 17.1% chance. Of course, that's before you take into account that in both scenarios you're playing teams that are probably better than .500 teams, so drop both numbers a little bit.

 

Fangraphs shows it a lot better, and almost definitely using better math. We're projected to win 102 games, and our odds of winning the World Series are 18.7%. We'll probably avoid the play-in game at this point (96% chance to win the division per FG), but an 8 team playoff decided purely on coin flips gives every team a 12.5% chance.

 

This was a lot of words to come to the same conclusion as everyone else did. Yes, they are still a crapshoot.

[jersey cubs fan]

To put it simply, if we lose a game to Pittsburgh this coming weekend because they BABIP us to death or if Javy makes some incredibly fluky error, we're still going to win the division. If we lose a game to them like that in the NLDS, we then have to beat them 3 out of 4.

 

You say that as if it were some sort of challenge.

[Sammy Sofa]

I was trying to be polite.

 

I mean, you're basically asking if a baseball team can become nigh-unbeatable within the sample size of a playoff series. It's this close to asking if magic can be real.

[sneakypower]

Vegas has us 2.5:1 for WS, so i say NO

[jersey cubs fan]

I was trying to be polite.

 

I mean, you're basically asking if a baseball team can become nigh-unbeatable within the sample size of a playoff series. It's this close to asking if magic can be real.

Have you not seen this team?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If the Cubs play .800 baseball all season long and win 130 games, then there could be an argument that the Cubs can overcome more of the variance than the average team. The reason the Playoffs are such a crapshoot is because the good teams are reasonably concentrated together. Mathematically the 97 win Cubs of last year are only a wee bit better than the 90 win Mets of last year, so an individual game's variance pretty much wipes out any actual difference in talent level when projecting the rest of the series. A 130 win Cubs team playing an 88 win Giants team or something is a bit of a different story. It would still be a crapshoot, but the Cubs would be rolling loaded dice instead of the normal coinflip.

 

This is all pretty much moot because the Cubs are not going to win 130 games or anything close to that number.

[Sammy Sofa]

I was trying to be polite.

 

I mean, you're basically asking if a baseball team can become nigh-unbeatable within the sample size of a playoff series. It's this close to asking if magic can be real.

Have you not seen this team?

 

They didn't carry that meme over.

[Banedon]

This is a strange question when the record 116 win Mariners got bounced in the playoffs.

 

EDIT: Tim beat me to this.

[sneakypower]

This is all pretty much moot because the Cubs are not going to win 130 games or anything close to that number.

you don't know that

[SouthSideRyan]

23 100 win (or equivalent for the '95 season) teams in the wild card era.

 

4 won the world series

3 lost in the world series.

16 failed to reach win their league.

 

The higher end teams did fare better. 103+ wins (or equivalent) reached the Series 5 out of 9 times, but only won twice.

[Cubbie Swagger]

I was trying to be polite.

Ah, yes, of course. I'm sure that was your best effort.

 

If the Cubs play .800 baseball all season long and win 130 games, then there could be an argument that the Cubs can overcome more of the variance than the average team. The reason the Playoffs are such a crapshoot is because the good teams are reasonably concentrated together. Mathematically the 97 win Cubs of last year are only a wee bit better than the 90 win Mets of last year, so an individual game's variance pretty much wipes out any actual difference in talent level when projecting the rest of the series. A 130 win Cubs team playing an 88 win Giants team or something is a bit of a different story. It would still be a crapshoot, but the Cubs would be rolling loaded dice instead of the normal coinflip.

 

This is all pretty much moot because the Cubs are not going to win 130 games or anything close to that number.

Yeah, this is pretty much what I was getting at. I know the playoffs are a crap shoot, but I'm wondering how good you have to be before you start tipping the scale.

[squally1313]

I was trying to be polite.

Ah, yes, of course. I'm sure that was your best effort.

 

If the Cubs play .800 baseball all season long and win 130 games, then there could be an argument that the Cubs can overcome more of the variance than the average team. The reason the Playoffs are such a crapshoot is because the good teams are reasonably concentrated together. Mathematically the 97 win Cubs of last year are only a wee bit better than the 90 win Mets of last year, so an individual game's variance pretty much wipes out any actual difference in talent level when projecting the rest of the series. A 130 win Cubs team playing an 88 win Giants team or something is a bit of a different story. It would still be a crapshoot, but the Cubs would be rolling loaded dice instead of the normal coinflip.

 

This is all pretty much moot because the Cubs are not going to win 130 games or anything close to that number.

Yeah, this is pretty much what I was getting at. I know the playoffs are a crap shoot, but I'm wondering how good you have to be before you start tipping the scale.

 

To go off TT's example...

 

(This website seems pretty helpful: http://turner.faculty.swau.edu/mathematics/math241/materials/playoff/)

 

A 130 win Cubs team going against an 88 win Giants team has a 67.6% chance of winning that series. Just assuming the Cubs have to win 3 of those series (longer series would help the Cubs, but tougher opponents would hurt, so assume it balances out), you'd be looking at a 31% chance of winning it all. Assuming I ran the math right.

 

Edit: To add in some basics of the math, the Cubs would have a 59.6% chance of winning an individual game, based on Cubs winning percentage divided by (Cubs winning percentage + Giants winning percentage). 21.2% chance of sweeping, 25.7% chance of winning in 4, 20.7% chance of winning in 5.

[UMFan83]

It's a slightly weighted crapshoot IMO.

 

Smart people have been trying to figure out the secret formula for winning in October for years and pretty much every theory has been debunked. Great pitching? Sounds great until you remember the 90's Braves. Great hitting? the 90's Indians are one of many examples of great teams that went cold at the wrong time. 2001 Mariners won 116 games, led the MLB in RS and RA and barely got past the ALDS and lost the ALCS in 5.

 

In 2008 there was a lot of talk of a secret sauce that involved power pitchers, good closer and good defense as being the key to winning in October. I believe the Cubs were well regarded in all 3 areas and got swept out of the NLDS.

 

But every time I am convinced its a 100% crapshoot, the 90's Yankees, 2010-2014 Giants, even the stinking Cardinals of recent years seem to have succeeded more often than you'd expect in a crapshoot while teams like the 2000's Twins and A's have failed more than you'd expect to in a crapshoot. So I think there are small things that give a team a higher probability of winning playoff series, but even then its just a weighted crapshoot.

[UMFan83]

Thread title: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

 

Comment in thread from OP

I know the playoffs are a crap shoot, but I'm wondering how good you have to be before you start tipping the scale.

 

Cubbie Swagger, who you crappin?