Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

[Cubbie Swagger]

I can't believe Eli Manning stormed the field after the Arrieta no-hitter.

Eh, Eli Manning probably has at least 10 years on that guy.

[Gmoney08]

One thing I noticed with all this RD talk is that the truely elite RD teams seems to win the Word Series a lot and dedinitely make the WS a lot.

 

So we can definitely make ourselves a significant favorite and up to maybe mid 20% chance compared to most #1 seeds. But, still the field had the odds over 1 dominant team.

Most of those teams were pre-playoffs. All you had to do was be the best in the league to make the world series. That's something the elite RD teams were very likely to do.

 

Valid points.

 

How have the elite RD teams of the playoffs era performed?

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

This is all pretty much moot because the Cubs are not going to win 130 games or anything close to that number.

 

There's TT, always with the cold water

[SRQCub]

One thing I noticed with all this RD talk is that the truely elite RD teams seems to win the Word Series a lot and dedinitely make the WS a lot.

 

So we can definitely make ourselves a significant favorite and up to maybe mid 20% chance compared to most #1 seeds. But, still the field had the odds over 1 dominant team.

Most of those teams were pre-playoffs. All you had to do was be the best in the league to make the world series. That's something the elite RD teams were very likely to do.

 

Valid points.

 

How have the elite RD teams of the playoffs era performed?

 

SInce 2008, only one team who led the league in RD won a World Series.

[Gmoney08]

Most of those teams were pre-playoffs. All you had to do was be the best in the league to make the world series. That's something the elite RD teams were very likely to do.

 

Valid points.

 

How have the elite RD teams of the playoffs era performed?

 

SInce 2008, only one team who led the league in RD won a World Series.

 

 

So we are due for the top dog to win it again. Also, I was more curious of how the elite RD teams have fared, maybe the top 10 or 15 RD teams since the LCS format started?

[Cubbie Swagger]

It might also be worth noting that the Cubs are currently playing at a pace that hasn't been achieved in the last 100 years. Obviously, we have to assume some regression, but it's sort of difficult to use any of the recent successful teams as comparisons.

 

On another note, if you consider how many of our hitters are off to slow starts, it makes me pretty optimistic about the regression aspect.

[David]

This guy doesn't think so

 

http://www.netonenews.com/2016/05/10/man-bets-retirement-on-cubs-world-series/

[Cubbie Swagger]

This guy doesn't think so

 

http://www.netonenews.com/2016/05/10/man-bets-retirement-on-cubs-world-series/

Props.

[Cubbie Swagger]

“I waited overnight before buying the ticket because I promised my wife I’d sleep on it,” says the 54-year-old sanitation worker turned carpenter.

Yep, that's right, you should make sure to sleep on it for a whole night. You don't want to literally jump on an airplane the first second that the thought pops into your head. That would be impulsive. Give it a solid 18 hours.

[jersey cubs fan]

[SRQCub]

 

Valid points.

 

How have the elite RD teams of the playoffs era performed?

 

SInce 2008, only one team who led the league in RD won a World Series.

 

 

So we are due for the top dog to win it again. Also, I was more curious of how the elite RD teams have fared, maybe the top 10 or 15 RD teams since the LCS format started?

 

Last years Blue Jays are the best team in RD since 1999, I believe. I'll look some later.

 

RD is not as essential as you'd think.

[sneakypower]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Banedon]

This guy doesn't think so

 

http://www.netonenews.com/2016/05/10/man-bets-retirement-on-cubs-world-series/

 

Fake news site.

[David]

This guy doesn't think so

 

http://www.netonenews.com/2016/05/10/man-bets-retirement-on-cubs-world-series/

 

Fake news site.

 

yeah

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

lol at rovell terming it a "feel good" story

[BigSlick]

When I was in Vegas a month ago I was really thinking about putting some cash on the Cubs for the WS just for fun (woulda been like $100) and I'm kicking myself cuz I'm sure the odds are waaay less appealing now

[KrisBryantisaBeast]

When I was in Vegas a month ago I was really thinking about putting some cash on the Cubs for the WS just for fun (woulda been like $100) and I'm kicking myself cuz I'm sure the odds are waaay less appealing now

 

I was in Vegas the first weekend of April and bet a small amount on the Cubs to win the World Series. I only bet 10 to win 35 but even before the season started it wasn't really worth it but it was just a fun bet that I felt like I had to make while I was in Vegas.

[David]

the over under win total would've been a much better bet, especially that horsefeathering reno casino that had us at 89 or something lmao

[SRQCub]

One thing I noticed with all this RD talk is that the truely elite RD teams seems to win the Word Series a lot and dedinitely make the WS a lot.

 

So we can definitely make ourselves a significant favorite and up to maybe mid 20% chance compared to most #1 seeds. But, still the field had the odds over 1 dominant team.

Most of those teams were pre-playoffs. All you had to do was be the best in the league to make the world series. That's something the elite RD teams were very likely to do.

 

Valid points.

 

How have the elite RD teams of the playoffs era performed?

 

This link gives some good insights into elite RD:

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1781362-ranking-the-top-25-regular-season-teams-in-mlb-history/page/3

[badger]

I refuse to believe bleacher report offers any good insights into, well, anything.

[cwood218]

YES

 

Assume:

The Cubs are this good.

Finish with the best record.

Face the wildcard winner in a best of 5.

 

A.)

1.) Mets beat Pirates

2.) Mets pitching could lead the way to 3 wins in a five game series.

 

B.)

1.) Nationals beat Pirates

2.) Strasburgh/Scherzer pitch 3 games,

This one may be more far fetched. First Scherzer must turn it around. Second one or two of the other 3 starters may have to pitch the game of

their lives. Also Strasburgh/Scherzer may tire by the end of the season after Dusty has them both break the single season IP record.

 

C.)

1.) Cardinals beat Pirates

2.) Wacha/Garcia/Martinez are healthy and pitching well, Wainwright channels his inner Jack Morris on the Cubs in game 5.

 

D.)

1.) Giants beat Pirates

2.) Bumgarner/Cueto match Jake/Jon and Samardzija beats Lackey. The Giants trade for a starter that beats Hammel. Its an even year blah blah..

 

E.)

1.) Dodgers beat Pirates

2.) Kershaw/Maeda pitch 3 games, or someone else pitches the game of their life.

 

F.)

1.) Pirates beat Pirates (Split Squad Wildcard Game)

2.) All Pirate batters choose "We Are Family" as their walk up music this traumatizes all Cubs pitchers.

[SRQCub]

I refuse to believe bleacher report offers any good insights into, well, anything.

 

Well, then that's on you.

 

You can miss the forest for the trees (I.E, getting hung up on their ranking of the Top 25 teams in history), or you can look at elite Run Differentials and Playoff outcomes.

[SRQCub]

YES

 

Assume:

The Cubs are this good.

Finish with the best record.

Face the wildcard winner in a best of 5.

 

A.)

1.) Mets beat Pirates

2.) Mets pitching could lead the way to 3 wins in a five game series.

 

B.)

1.) Nationals beat Pirates

2.) Strasburgh/Scherzer pitch 3 games,

This one may be more far fetched. First Scherzer must turn it around. Second one or two of the other 3 starters may have to pitch the game of

their lives. Also Strasburgh/Scherzer may tire by the end of the season after Dusty has them both break the single season IP record.

 

C.)

1.) Cardinals beat Pirates

2.) Wacha/Garcia/Martinez are healthy and pitching well, Wainwright channels his inner Jack Morris on the Cubs in game 5.

 

D.)

1.) Giants beat Pirates

2.) Bumgarner/Cueto match Jake/Jon and Samardzija beats Lackey. The Giants trade for a starter that beats Hammel. Its an even year blah blah..

 

E.)

1.) Dodgers beat Pirates

2.) Kershaw/Maeda pitch 3 games, or someone else pitches the game of their life.

 

F.)

1.) Pirates beat Pirates (Split Squad Wildcard Game)

2.) All Pirate batters choose "We Are Family" as their walk up music this traumatizes all Cubs pitchers.

 

So, throwing someone better than Lackey in the playoffs would serve us well?

[jersey cubs fan]

I refuse to believe bleacher report offers any good insights into, well, anything.

 

Well, then that's on you.

 

You can miss the forest for the trees (I.E, getting hung up on their ranking of the Top 25 teams in history), or you can look at elite Run Differentials and Playoff outcomes.

bleacher report is more of a swamp than forest

[BigSlick]

You don't even need to throw up elite pitchers against us or whatever, you could even start 3 of the worst starters in the league and there's like a decent chance you lose

 

This team lost a series to the Rockies, at home. It happens, its baseball

[BigSlick]

Yesterday should be proof on how random and crapshooty the playoffs are.

 

Now, imagine yesterday, multiplied three times across the NLDS, NLCS and World Series. That's why you can't get higher than like, 25% to win.